Tropical Storm Danny continues to struggle in the face of strong shear. The storm’s center has been devoid of heavy thunderstorms since its inception, and it is unlikely that the storm will have time to organize before it gets swept northward. Wind speeds are set at 40 mph and these are likely found only to the east of the center. Tropical cyclones are decidedly un-sexy when they are naked, like Danny is right now, since a blanket of convection over the center of a storm is what allows it to maintain a core area of low pressure, and strengthen. Without a center of low pressure, a pressure gradient cannot develop, and there is no wind-field. The very asymmetric storm is shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Tropical Storm Danny. Ugly.
While the system is moving very little right now, it is expected to get swept up by an approaching cold front and accelerate northward. Danny will pass over, or just east of North Carolina, where tropical storm watches have been issued. Because all of the heavy convection is located well east of the center, it is unlikely the state will experience tropical storm conditions, or even very much tropical moisture.
Danny will continue northward, passing over, or just east of, Massachusetts as it transitions to an extratropical storm. Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Cape Cod and the Islands, but once again, I expect few reports of sustained tropical storm force winds. Danny’s forecast path is shown below in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Projected Path of Danny
However, the combination of Danny’s moisture and an approaching area of Low Pressure will dump prodigous rains over all of New England. The interaction of Danny and the Low will energize a large swath of moisture. Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and southern New Hampshire can expect upwards of 4-5 inches of rain. Areas further west, including New York City, Connecticut, and Long Island will see 2-3 inches, with Philadelphia and Washington seeing 1-2 inches. A map of projected precipitation totals is shown in Figure 3 below.
Figure 3: Projected 60 hour rainfall totals for the Northeast
While such totals may cause some urban flooding and the overflowing of small streams and rivers, they will not be record-setting by any means. However, it will pretty much wipe out a second consecutive beach weekend, one week after Bill.
Elsewhere in the tropics, a wave located at low latitudes (10N) between the Lesser Antilles and Africa shows signs of development and has been designated Invest 94l by the NHC, which gives the system a “medium”, or 30-50% of developing over the next 48 hours. The system is cruising westward at 23 mph, and is currently being impacted by dry air to its north. Most of the computer models develop this system and strengthen it to a strong tropical storm or hurricane by the the beginning of next week. By the middle of the week, it may be a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles. I give 94l a 50% of becoming TS Erika by Monday.
I bought some Western Refining (WNR) at $6.34, as it seems to be the hip thing to do around here. I like the double bottom at ~$6.00, and the improving crack spreads. I also have a larger Valero (VLO) position that I’ve held for about a month from $17.25.
The spreads on Natural Gas are insane right now. The front month contract (Oct ’09) is trading at 7 year lows at $3.00, the Nov ’09 at $4.00, and the Dec ’09 at $5.00. Some has to give; it is inevitable that such a contango will break down. Rig counts have risen for 4 consecutive weeks to 699, indicating that the industry believes in recovering prices. Additionally, this week’s injection of +54 BCF was below the average of +67 BCF, the first time we’ve seen a below-average injection in over a month. However, before you go out and buy UNG to take advantage, realize you are buying an ETF that is 16% overvalued!
Note I: DPeezy is hosting an iBC fantasy football league, with the draft coming up next Monday at 7pm. Seeing as fantasy football is the greatest thing since sliced bread, everybody should join up.
Note II: With the hurricane season heating up, Dr. Cane is now on Twitter as DrCane09 since this is often a faster way to provide updates as things quickly change. FOLLOW ME for regular updates regarding the Tropics, Trading, and misc other weather stuff.
Note III: Major Karma Points to the first person to correctly identify the storm shown at the top. This is going to be a common theme of posts for the foreseeable future. A small hurricane warning flag will be awarded to the individual with the most points at the conclusion of the hurricane season, provided that they have at least 12.
DPeezy on a roll. Somebody step up and stop him…
1. DPeezy-12
1. Wabisabi-10
3. TraderCaddy-4
4. Yogi and Boo Boo-3
5. Jim-1
6. BuffaloUdders-1
Disclaimer: Forecasts and Opinions are my own and are subject to error. Please rely on official National Weather Service forecasts.
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Dean?
I am thinking that Dean was further south then this one. In 05 Emily pushed over the northern part of the peninsula and hit southern Texas.
Good guesses, but no cigar. Dean was indeed a bit further south, pushing across the central Yucatan south of Cozumel. While Emily’s track would correlate with this storm, it is not likely that a storm that had just crossed the Yucatan peninsula would look this good emerging on the other side. Emily, for instance, was a cat 4 on landfall, but only a shredded cat 1 on the other side…
There are several more guesses, but they would be only that from me. I had an idea of others, but based on your comments Ive no clue now. I look forward to finding out the right answer.
Gilbert?
Hurricane Isidore, 2002
Hurricane Isidore it is, and DPeezy widens his lead. This is a fascinating satellite image since it shows a very rare feat: a 125 mph hurricane on the WEST side of the Yucatan peninsula. 95% of the time, a hurricane in this position will have traveled westward through the Caribbean, impacted the Yucatan somewhere near Cozumel, before crossing the peninsula and emerging into the Gulf. At this time, any storm would be substantially weaker, very unlike the near-perfect structure of Isidore. This was due to Isidore’s very unusual track: When this satellite image was taken, Isidore was moving southwestward, from the Gulf into the peninsula from above due to the presence of a strong area of high pressure to its north. The storm eventually made landfall in a rather unpopulated area of the Yucatan, sat there for a few days, and then re-entered the Gulf as a tropical storm. Isidore ultimately made landfall on the upper Gulf Coast east of New Orleans as a 70 mph tropical storm. However, due to Isidore’s size, he still managed to throw an 8 foot storm surge at parts of Alabama and Florida. The name “Isidore” was retired after the 2002 season and was replaced by “Ike”…which was promptly retired after the 2008 season, and replaced by “Isaias.” Ten bucks says Isaias turns into a kickass storm in the 2014 season…