Just some quick updates and thoughts on the market. We’ve seen a nice rally here, but I would be surprised to see more upside at this point. Markets are overbought and TLT is hitting its support trendline.
I am hoping we gap up in the AM to sell into.
I am liking the way GMXR is forming support here. Daily MACD being defended with hopefully a double bottom formation on the daily.
On the hourly, it looks like it could see significant upside shortly.
I am looking for $1.50 at the least. But I have been wrong thus far in the stock.
TLT is the clearest indicator for measuring risk off. It going for all time highs and is no longer overbought in the short or medium term. Do you really want to be holding risky equities right now?
Surprise!!! Bad earnings, again. It closed at just over $15 and is now just under $14, after hours. Both my dad and one of my best friends say short it. Everyone I know and have heard talk about RIMM say short it. I’ve heard comparisons to Motorola (that’s just mean, by the way). People look at RIMM likes it is the plague. And honestly, I don’t really blame them. I dumped my blackberry for an iPhone, which is better across the board except for typing and battery life. But, at this point, the move down is just too much.
Here are some key stats I’m looking at, both the good and the bad.
Good:
Ownership (insider 10%, institutions 50%). Ownership seems solid. CEOs taking $1/year in salary. Insiders own a huge chunk of the company. You don’t think they are going to try to maximize that wealth?
Everyone thinks the company is going to single digits and lower
NO DEBT (RIMM looks like the ideal levered recap/LBO)
Cash flow from operations still high and strong (Although nowhere near as high from peak)
Bad:
Technical freefall
Negative growth
Loss of market share in the U.S.
Continual earnings disappointment
A lot of cash spent on investments recently. Whatever they are investing in better work.
I’m sure I’ve missed some factors. But what I think we are seeing here is too much doom priced in. Effectively, I think RIMM is being priced in oppositely to how it was when it was trading at $70+ and everyone had to buy it. I believe the long term risk reward is at a decent spot, and I am a watcher to buy for the long term (few year horizon).
So my question to you: is RIMM a value buy here, or is it a value trap?
If anyone is interested, I may put together a DCF on RIMM over my winter break. If I get really, really, really bored. But only if there is demand.
Today was awful, if you are bullish. My twitter stream has been blowing up with bullish sentiment recently, especially regarding a move today. This was your move: flat on nasdaq, dow and s&p up about .3%. Not only did a gap up get pretty much filled, but today’s move will go a long way into alleviating oversold status. This does not bode well for bulls. The only positive I can think of is the death of the VIX.
I’d imagine we will see slow motion trading like the past two days through years end. It seems like no one really cares what will happen next, as neither bears nor bulls have been able to press the issue. I continue to believe TLT will be the market tell (effectively, the price of risk off) and will thus watch it accordingly. It alleviated any overbought conditions today.
In my own account, I pulled a Plexico Burress. I am not happy. I am only long GMXR and RBCN, and short AMR with puts. If GMXR does not bounce tomorrow I will probably shed it for another stupid loss.
I want to be bullish but can’t. Not until we fill this gap and become even a little oversold as registered by The PPT. I went long TZA today, expecting bearish trading through the day to sell out of by the end of the day. Stupidly, I added through the day and now have a way overlarge position that I am extremely uncomfortable with, as overnight moves can happen for seemingly no reason. I’m still holding GMXR and RBCN, both of which look like crap but can reverse hard upon any market move up.
In other news, TLT freaked me out today (hence my TZA trade). Today, the treasury auction went incredibly well – too well. The 30 year auction was a record low yield. The chart is ramping up in a big way, potentially putting in a cup and handle (see below).
Additionally, IWM, QQQ, and SPY had MACD bearish crosses today. FXE did put in a doji today, which should help bulls. But my gut is telling my something is wrong here. Regardless, both the bulls and the bears had chances to seize the day. I guess the bears kind of did, but the damage should have been much worse.
What a sad day for bears, both the Chicago Bears and the market bears, unless you were short going into the day. Even then, it was still a pathetic performance: you have once again proven you can’t keep the market down. TLT and VIX were atrociously weak today. TLT felt like VXX today – it was being bid up at times, but, as gapandyap always says, it can’t keep it up. Meanwhile, the bears got everything they could ask for from the euro. It puked all over itself. Additionally, a tech and dow leader, Intel, slashed guidance in a big way. Regardless, the dow and nasdaq outperformed the S&P500. Go figure.
I am fully expecting us to trade higher through the end of the year. I added TNA and BAC to reflect this thesis (currently hold GMXR, which has some work to do before it goes higher but I’m generally liking it. Also have RBCN, which is going to rip shorts’ faces off shortly). Also short AMR via puts.
On a different note, today offered some interesting correlation divergence. We saw a weak Euro (bearish); weak, but still stronger treasuries (slightly bearish); and the VIX was poleaxed (bullish). Usually, all three will trade together. Perhaps we are seeing some type of trend change, where a weaker Euro isn’t as detrimental to the equity markets as it recently was. Watch this going forward.
This is some of the unhealthiest digestion/consolidation I have seen… the market has completely ramped, with the S&P going from 1160 to 1260 in such a short time. Naturally, some digestion, which one could argue is what we are seeing now, would be nice. However, I don’t think what we are seeing now is digestion. This feels like a bull trap. Yesterday, morning and afternoon, the market felt very heavy. However, a rumor came in and we ran. But, we sold off into the close. Today, the same felt true, combined with a gap down. This just feels… wrong. What I think we have and are going to see is a buy the rumor, sell the news type of deal. Are the Europeans really going to introduce something entirely groundbreaking tomorrow or Friday? Expectations should be high, and something will be done, but it has probably already been priced in. Otherwise, we would probably be trading 20% lower.
In other news, I think the people who are buying AMR are going to be very disappointed. Risk reward to go short is looking attractive, especially if AMR closes red tomorrow. Also L: tea wynn x, with a side helping of tza. Looking for a few points, nothing really crazy.
While I remain slightly bullish and think we will close the year higher, I believe the markets are very overheated here. I am expecting a 2-4% pullback to materialize (ES_F (S&P futures) down 9 ATM). In the meantime, there are three stocks that are hard to justify from a valuation perspective and appear to be at a decent short entry point.
I like P as a short here… It had a nice dead cat bounce last week, alleviating extreme oversold conditions. Moreover, today’s candle was hideous. The gap down on the 22nd held as firm resistance, despite previously acting as support. An inverse cup and handle can also be argued here, with the ~10 being the neckline. Regardless, I’m expecting a $10 print soon.
While I do not think LNKD is a short right here, I think its a short at either 71 or if an ugly candle is printed tomorrow. I’m again expecting past support to act as resistance. Moreover, the 20day MA is right here, which may hold the price down. This looks like it is a bounce to the breakdown before we see the next leg lower.
GRPN is pretty ugly. It has been beaten down and has printed two spinning tops after a dead cat bounce. I am expecting the trend down to continue shortly.
I like the $20 level here to watch. The bear flag broke down here (the 22nd; acted as short term support), and an ugly shooting star was printed and confirmed (12/2), showing resistance.
Off topic… this has been driving me nuts, but who is the wedding singer in all of these hilarious movies? What else is he in? Anyone know his story? See below:
I’ve sold all longs. Currently have TZA common and calls. Expecting a 2-4% dip at some point this week. Market is very overheated. I will be very nimble though. Inclined to return to bullishness after a pull back, but may just go cash for end of year outside of day trading.
Need some technical support help: anyone using google chrome not able to run freestockcharts.com? It’s driving me crazy…
Just some quick updates and thoughts on the market. We’ve seen a nice rally here, but I would be surprised to see more upside at this point. Markets are overbought and TLT is hitting its support trendline.
I am hoping we gap up in the AM to sell into.
I am liking the way GMXR is forming support here. Daily MACD being defended with hopefully a double bottom formation on the daily.
On the hourly, it looks like it could see significant upside shortly.
I am looking for $1.50 at the least. But I have been wrong thus far in the stock.
TLT is the clearest indicator for measuring risk off. It going for all time highs and is no longer overbought in the short or medium term. Do you really want to be holding risky equities right now?
Surprise!!! Bad earnings, again. It closed at just over $15 and is now just under $14, after hours. Both my dad and one of my best friends say short it. Everyone I know and have heard talk about RIMM say short it. I’ve heard comparisons to Motorola (that’s just mean, by the way). People look at RIMM likes it is the plague. And honestly, I don’t really blame them. I dumped my blackberry for an iPhone, which is better across the board except for typing and battery life. But, at this point, the move down is just too much.
Here are some key stats I’m looking at, both the good and the bad.
Good:
Ownership (insider 10%, institutions 50%). Ownership seems solid. CEOs taking $1/year in salary. Insiders own a huge chunk of the company. You don’t think they are going to try to maximize that wealth?
Everyone thinks the company is going to single digits and lower
NO DEBT (RIMM looks like the ideal levered recap/LBO)
Cash flow from operations still high and strong (Although nowhere near as high from peak)
Bad:
Technical freefall
Negative growth
Loss of market share in the U.S.
Continual earnings disappointment
A lot of cash spent on investments recently. Whatever they are investing in better work.
I’m sure I’ve missed some factors. But what I think we are seeing here is too much doom priced in. Effectively, I think RIMM is being priced in oppositely to how it was when it was trading at $70+ and everyone had to buy it. I believe the long term risk reward is at a decent spot, and I am a watcher to buy for the long term (few year horizon).
So my question to you: is RIMM a value buy here, or is it a value trap?
If anyone is interested, I may put together a DCF on RIMM over my winter break. If I get really, really, really bored. But only if there is demand.
Today was awful, if you are bullish. My twitter stream has been blowing up with bullish sentiment recently, especially regarding a move today. This was your move: flat on nasdaq, dow and s&p up about .3%. Not only did a gap up get pretty much filled, but today’s move will go a long way into alleviating oversold status. This does not bode well for bulls. The only positive I can think of is the death of the VIX.
I’d imagine we will see slow motion trading like the past two days through years end. It seems like no one really cares what will happen next, as neither bears nor bulls have been able to press the issue. I continue to believe TLT will be the market tell (effectively, the price of risk off) and will thus watch it accordingly. It alleviated any overbought conditions today.
In my own account, I pulled a Plexico Burress. I am not happy. I am only long GMXR and RBCN, and short AMR with puts. If GMXR does not bounce tomorrow I will probably shed it for another stupid loss.
I want to be bullish but can’t. Not until we fill this gap and become even a little oversold as registered by The PPT. I went long TZA today, expecting bearish trading through the day to sell out of by the end of the day. Stupidly, I added through the day and now have a way overlarge position that I am extremely uncomfortable with, as overnight moves can happen for seemingly no reason. I’m still holding GMXR and RBCN, both of which look like crap but can reverse hard upon any market move up.
In other news, TLT freaked me out today (hence my TZA trade). Today, the treasury auction went incredibly well – too well. The 30 year auction was a record low yield. The chart is ramping up in a big way, potentially putting in a cup and handle (see below).
Additionally, IWM, QQQ, and SPY had MACD bearish crosses today. FXE did put in a doji today, which should help bulls. But my gut is telling my something is wrong here. Regardless, both the bulls and the bears had chances to seize the day. I guess the bears kind of did, but the damage should have been much worse.
What a sad day for bears, both the Chicago Bears and the market bears, unless you were short going into the day. Even then, it was still a pathetic performance: you have once again proven you can’t keep the market down. TLT and VIX were atrociously weak today. TLT felt like VXX today – it was being bid up at times, but, as gapandyap always says, it can’t keep it up. Meanwhile, the bears got everything they could ask for from the euro. It puked all over itself. Additionally, a tech and dow leader, Intel, slashed guidance in a big way. Regardless, the dow and nasdaq outperformed the S&P500. Go figure.
I am fully expecting us to trade higher through the end of the year. I added TNA and BAC to reflect this thesis (currently hold GMXR, which has some work to do before it goes higher but I’m generally liking it. Also have RBCN, which is going to rip shorts’ faces off shortly). Also short AMR via puts.
On a different note, today offered some interesting correlation divergence. We saw a weak Euro (bearish); weak, but still stronger treasuries (slightly bearish); and the VIX was poleaxed (bullish). Usually, all three will trade together. Perhaps we are seeing some type of trend change, where a weaker Euro isn’t as detrimental to the equity markets as it recently was. Watch this going forward.
This is some of the unhealthiest digestion/consolidation I have seen… the market has completely ramped, with the S&P going from 1160 to 1260 in such a short time. Naturally, some digestion, which one could argue is what we are seeing now, would be nice. However, I don’t think what we are seeing now is digestion. This feels like a bull trap. Yesterday, morning and afternoon, the market felt very heavy. However, a rumor came in and we ran. But, we sold off into the close. Today, the same felt true, combined with a gap down. This just feels… wrong. What I think we have and are going to see is a buy the rumor, sell the news type of deal. Are the Europeans really going to introduce something entirely groundbreaking tomorrow or Friday? Expectations should be high, and something will be done, but it has probably already been priced in. Otherwise, we would probably be trading 20% lower.
In other news, I think the people who are buying AMR are going to be very disappointed. Risk reward to go short is looking attractive, especially if AMR closes red tomorrow. Also L: tea wynn x, with a side helping of tza. Looking for a few points, nothing really crazy.
While I remain slightly bullish and think we will close the year higher, I believe the markets are very overheated here. I am expecting a 2-4% pullback to materialize (ES_F (S&P futures) down 9 ATM). In the meantime, there are three stocks that are hard to justify from a valuation perspective and appear to be at a decent short entry point.
I like P as a short here… It had a nice dead cat bounce last week, alleviating extreme oversold conditions. Moreover, today’s candle was hideous. The gap down on the 22nd held as firm resistance, despite previously acting as support. An inverse cup and handle can also be argued here, with the ~10 being the neckline. Regardless, I’m expecting a $10 print soon.
While I do not think LNKD is a short right here, I think its a short at either 71 or if an ugly candle is printed tomorrow. I’m again expecting past support to act as resistance. Moreover, the 20day MA is right here, which may hold the price down. This looks like it is a bounce to the breakdown before we see the next leg lower.
GRPN is pretty ugly. It has been beaten down and has printed two spinning tops after a dead cat bounce. I am expecting the trend down to continue shortly.
I like the $20 level here to watch. The bear flag broke down here (the 22nd; acted as short term support), and an ugly shooting star was printed and confirmed (12/2), showing resistance.
Off topic… this has been driving me nuts, but who is the wedding singer in all of these hilarious movies? What else is he in? Anyone know his story? See below:
I’ve sold all longs. Currently have TZA common and calls. Expecting a 2-4% dip at some point this week. Market is very overheated. I will be very nimble though. Inclined to return to bullishness after a pull back, but may just go cash for end of year outside of day trading.
Need some technical support help: anyone using google chrome not able to run freestockcharts.com? It’s driving me crazy…
