Loving this vicious ripping action, but this is what I am watching going into the end of the day.
Looks like a cup and handle is forming. All equities (SPY, IWM, XLF, QQQ) seem to be pointing to a higher close, but they will do what TLT tells them. Good luck.
I took a look at TLT earlier and became very frightened by what I am witnessing. TLT is gearing up to touch all time highs yet again. Last time we were here (currently at 121.39; recent highs are 125), we had the rip your face off October rally. This move, however, has been slower, more sustained. TLT is nowhere near as overbought as it was before. Previously, on the weekly and monthly, these levels were swiftly rejected. Not this time. While I think TLT will trade lower in the near future, a breakout is very possible. This should be the straw that breaks the equity market’s back.
The solution, naturally, is higher stock prices.
Long GS, TNA, MOS, GMCR, and WNR calls as of today. I’ll be travelling most of the day tomorrow so hopefully no unpleasant surprises. A bounce here just feels “right.” And even despite the gap down today, we are putting in a hammer/doji right now. I’m expecting a move higher and will be taking profits quickly because this market is very frustrating.
On a side note, look at the bright side, always: at least you weren’t long FMCR today (hopefully).
Oil has just been ripping recently. I personally do not understand why or how it could possibly be this high, but price does not lie. Luckily for Cain, myself, and others who hate oil, it looks like a potential reversal is in.
As you can see, USO doji’ed yesterday and has sold off significantly today. Volume has also been high over the past two days. MACD hasn’t crossed yet, but it’s getting close. Watch this one closely.
These are a few names that are worth looking into:
ALJ release earnings and has a massive, 50% up day. Volume was absurd. It is flagging now. Above 11.70 will be fun.
Really like BZH atm, which I believe the Fly is currently long. It is now above a gap down and a previous spot of failure. Additionally, it is above the 100 day MA. I think this will be a big winner next week.
For all the drama going on around GSVC and GRPN, GSVC is actually looking good. 13.50 seems to be support and it looks like it wants higher. The huge sell off is naturally a concern, but over time it should go higher.
My gamble pick – ATPG. Low 6’s have held twice. It could be nice for a point move on some sort of bounce here, but it looks ugly overall.
From my previous post, I still like the way V and RIG are holding up. TSO is bothering me — it doesn’t look ready.
Have a nice weekend.
The candidates are, quite honestly, awful. Sitting here now watching the debate on my DVR and I am appalled. And why do these candidates keep spitting on Bernanke? Do they not realize he staved off a massive global depression? Instead, it seems that localized recessions will occur instead.
Huntsman – Had some nice answers but he talks too much. He’s a bright guy, but there is just something missing.
Perry – He ended his campaign tonight. He might be worse than Bush from a public speaking perspective. Check out this link to his latest gaffe, which, in it of itself, is not so bad. We all have brain farts, but the overall picture is too much to overcome now.
I don’t know why Santorum is up there…
Ron Paul wants to bring the world back 60 years. He wants to cut a trillion from government budgets. Fine. I get it. We need to lower debt. But let’s not push us into a massive recession in the meantime.
Newt is probably the least charasmatic person up there. He always looks angry. He says intelligent things, but I can’t really comprehend them because I’m too busy trying to figure out why he’s being so cranky.
Bachman – no comment.
Herman Cain, when asked about what he would do about Fannie and Freddie, plugs his 9-9-9 plan. Come on man, really? Just answer the question. However, this dude is a great talker. He has the perfect mix of Bush and Obama, in the sense that he looks like someone you want to have a beer with, but he is also seemingly very bright.
Romney is very interesting. He has pretty much said everything about everything at this point, but I don’t care. My main focus is business, and he knows his stuff.
At the end of the day, it will be between Romney and Cain. Cain has literally done everything wrong. Sexual harassment scandals, the worst ads (I actually kind of liked them…), etc. There’s something about him that I just love though. His motivational, self empowerment mindset is incredible. He will let me pay less taxes. He just has that winner feel.
Plus, I really want to celebrate his election to this song:
If we see a bounce here, or even some sideways action, over the next few days, I think these names will perform exceptionally well.
I like the way TSO is holding above its breakout level.
Visa looks strong as well. Coiled up nicely. I also like it at dips; rising support looks good more long term.
Rig looks good on a potential inverse head and shoulders. Additionally, it pays a nice dividend and has shown nice relative strength.
I also love Rig at 44 for a long term support play, if it ever gets there.
I hate oil. The fact that it’s near $100 makes me sick, honestly. Eurozone is screaming recession, US is chugging along slowly, and China is manipulating everything… It makes no sense to me. Divergence has also been absurd. Oil has outperformed strongly and I think at the very least it retraces a bit. I like SCO on that play — also note the very high volume today and MACD close to crossing over.
Enjoy the song to celebrate today’s beautiful price action.
Italian 10 yrs at 6.66%. We all know what that means… Ignoring the fact that Italy can no longer fund itself, we are now evoking the inverse of my favorite 999 plan and the sign of the beast…
Long tvix, tza, sco, agq.
In other news, I am kicking myself for selling Google 5 hours too early.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
Keeping with The Fly’s theme of being long refiners, I’ve decided to go through just about all of their charts and post my thoughts… It’s late and I’m tired so I’ve only posted my favorite charts. If you would like clarification on anything please feel free to ask and I’ll do my best.
Synm – looks like death. Assuming its not crap fundamentally, with this refining environment it may have a decent chance of being bought out
Eroc – looks decent. I like it on a breakout.
Dk – looks strong and poised to hit 52wk highs again
Alj – looks good, but chart has given me fits in the past. The huge 50% up day Friday was on absurd volume. I certainly don’t expect it to go lower.
Wnr – I like above 18.5
Ugp – I like above 18.5 on weekly
Clmt – looks like it wants higher (to about 20, but volume is weak)
Cvi – looks like it is resting and wants higher.
Tso – complete breakout. BUY. Easily my favorite of the group.
Vlo – chart is sloppy but I think its worth 15% more… at least fundamentally.
Int – will complete a breakout above 42.
Sun – bearish chart. Falling trendline.
Mro – too sloppy for me
Mur – bearish chart. Falling trendline.
Hes – buy; good for 68. Broke out and should fill the previous steep sell off
Ftk – firming up
I’m fully expecting Groupon to pull a LinkedIn tomorrow. Managers (as I have discussed in my previous crox posts) are trailing the market HARD. More so than in a LONG LONG time. You know how they fix that? They gamble with your money. Groupon is the first big IPO in a while. The markets are significantly better off than a month ago. This is a recipe for them to buy as much as they can get their hands on (which they can’t, by the way. The big boys will probably get half of what they want; the middle guys a quarter. Expect the little money managers to not get a single share). Leaks have shown this is already over subscribed; bankers had allegedly stopped calling clients for interest a day early. And while I think Groupon will be significantly overvalued, a la LinkedIn, it will trade higher to start.
Currently, I am long GOOG, NFLX, AGQ, and SCO (so thus short, as a hedge). I took some loses on JVA, WPRT, ZAGG, and GMCR this week, but it will all be made back, AND MORE, especially given my massive NFLX win. The news flow still bothers me (but at this point, baring something actually happening, the market will shrug it off as it is tired of the rumors). Additionally, a lot of respectable traders are starting to get very bearish, so I will be either net short or neutral, best case, once The PPT goes overbought.
Also, I never took the time to thank Le Fly, RC, Cain, Wood, Jake, RC, Scott, Cronkite, Jeremy, and the rest of the IBC team. Thanks for being very helpful and for opening up this platform.
Enjoy the Groupon fireworks tomorrow.
Update: I am a bit disappointed with the GRPN IPO. I expected more of a pop on to start, but a 40% pop is still nice. And while I think it trades higher in the short term, at the end of the day it doesn’t generate cash. Hard to be long term bullish on it. Additionally, I personally am using this as a barometer to see how risky managers are. Clearly, they are still willing to take on risk. However, the days of LNKD going HAM have come and gone.
Loving this vicious ripping action, but this is what I am watching going into the end of the day.
Looks like a cup and handle is forming. All equities (SPY, IWM, XLF, QQQ) seem to be pointing to a higher close, but they will do what TLT tells them. Good luck.
I took a look at TLT earlier and became very frightened by what I am witnessing. TLT is gearing up to touch all time highs yet again. Last time we were here (currently at 121.39; recent highs are 125), we had the rip your face off October rally. This move, however, has been slower, more sustained. TLT is nowhere near as overbought as it was before. Previously, on the weekly and monthly, these levels were swiftly rejected. Not this time. While I think TLT will trade lower in the near future, a breakout is very possible. This should be the straw that breaks the equity market’s back.
The solution, naturally, is higher stock prices.
Long GS, TNA, MOS, GMCR, and WNR calls as of today. I’ll be travelling most of the day tomorrow so hopefully no unpleasant surprises. A bounce here just feels “right.” And even despite the gap down today, we are putting in a hammer/doji right now. I’m expecting a move higher and will be taking profits quickly because this market is very frustrating.
On a side note, look at the bright side, always: at least you weren’t long FMCR today (hopefully).
Oil has just been ripping recently. I personally do not understand why or how it could possibly be this high, but price does not lie. Luckily for Cain, myself, and others who hate oil, it looks like a potential reversal is in.
As you can see, USO doji’ed yesterday and has sold off significantly today. Volume has also been high over the past two days. MACD hasn’t crossed yet, but it’s getting close. Watch this one closely.
These are a few names that are worth looking into:
ALJ release earnings and has a massive, 50% up day. Volume was absurd. It is flagging now. Above 11.70 will be fun.
Really like BZH atm, which I believe the Fly is currently long. It is now above a gap down and a previous spot of failure. Additionally, it is above the 100 day MA. I think this will be a big winner next week.
For all the drama going on around GSVC and GRPN, GSVC is actually looking good. 13.50 seems to be support and it looks like it wants higher. The huge sell off is naturally a concern, but over time it should go higher.
My gamble pick – ATPG. Low 6’s have held twice. It could be nice for a point move on some sort of bounce here, but it looks ugly overall.
From my previous post, I still like the way V and RIG are holding up. TSO is bothering me — it doesn’t look ready.
Have a nice weekend.
The candidates are, quite honestly, awful. Sitting here now watching the debate on my DVR and I am appalled. And why do these candidates keep spitting on Bernanke? Do they not realize he staved off a massive global depression? Instead, it seems that localized recessions will occur instead.
Huntsman – Had some nice answers but he talks too much. He’s a bright guy, but there is just something missing.
Perry – He ended his campaign tonight. He might be worse than Bush from a public speaking perspective. Check out this link to his latest gaffe, which, in it of itself, is not so bad. We all have brain farts, but the overall picture is too much to overcome now.
I don’t know why Santorum is up there…
Ron Paul wants to bring the world back 60 years. He wants to cut a trillion from government budgets. Fine. I get it. We need to lower debt. But let’s not push us into a massive recession in the meantime.
Newt is probably the least charasmatic person up there. He always looks angry. He says intelligent things, but I can’t really comprehend them because I’m too busy trying to figure out why he’s being so cranky.
Bachman – no comment.
Herman Cain, when asked about what he would do about Fannie and Freddie, plugs his 9-9-9 plan. Come on man, really? Just answer the question. However, this dude is a great talker. He has the perfect mix of Bush and Obama, in the sense that he looks like someone you want to have a beer with, but he is also seemingly very bright.
Romney is very interesting. He has pretty much said everything about everything at this point, but I don’t care. My main focus is business, and he knows his stuff.
At the end of the day, it will be between Romney and Cain. Cain has literally done everything wrong. Sexual harassment scandals, the worst ads (I actually kind of liked them…), etc. There’s something about him that I just love though. His motivational, self empowerment mindset is incredible. He will let me pay less taxes. He just has that winner feel.
Plus, I really want to celebrate his election to this song:
If we see a bounce here, or even some sideways action, over the next few days, I think these names will perform exceptionally well.
I like the way TSO is holding above its breakout level.
Visa looks strong as well. Coiled up nicely. I also like it at dips; rising support looks good more long term.
Rig looks good on a potential inverse head and shoulders. Additionally, it pays a nice dividend and has shown nice relative strength.
I also love Rig at 44 for a long term support play, if it ever gets there.
I hate oil. The fact that it’s near $100 makes me sick, honestly. Eurozone is screaming recession, US is chugging along slowly, and China is manipulating everything… It makes no sense to me. Divergence has also been absurd. Oil has outperformed strongly and I think at the very least it retraces a bit. I like SCO on that play — also note the very high volume today and MACD close to crossing over.
Enjoy the song to celebrate today’s beautiful price action.
Italian 10 yrs at 6.66%. We all know what that means… Ignoring the fact that Italy can no longer fund itself, we are now evoking the inverse of my favorite 999 plan and the sign of the beast…
Long tvix, tza, sco, agq.
In other news, I am kicking myself for selling Google 5 hours too early.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
Keeping with The Fly’s theme of being long refiners, I’ve decided to go through just about all of their charts and post my thoughts… It’s late and I’m tired so I’ve only posted my favorite charts. If you would like clarification on anything please feel free to ask and I’ll do my best.
Synm – looks like death. Assuming its not crap fundamentally, with this refining environment it may have a decent chance of being bought out
Eroc – looks decent. I like it on a breakout.
Dk – looks strong and poised to hit 52wk highs again
Alj – looks good, but chart has given me fits in the past. The huge 50% up day Friday was on absurd volume. I certainly don’t expect it to go lower.
Wnr – I like above 18.5
Ugp – I like above 18.5 on weekly
Clmt – looks like it wants higher (to about 20, but volume is weak)
Cvi – looks like it is resting and wants higher.
Tso – complete breakout. BUY. Easily my favorite of the group.
Vlo – chart is sloppy but I think its worth 15% more… at least fundamentally.
Int – will complete a breakout above 42.
Sun – bearish chart. Falling trendline.
Mro – too sloppy for me
Mur – bearish chart. Falling trendline.
Hes – buy; good for 68. Broke out and should fill the previous steep sell off
Ftk – firming up
I’m fully expecting Groupon to pull a LinkedIn tomorrow. Managers (as I have discussed in my previous crox posts) are trailing the market HARD. More so than in a LONG LONG time. You know how they fix that? They gamble with your money. Groupon is the first big IPO in a while. The markets are significantly better off than a month ago. This is a recipe for them to buy as much as they can get their hands on (which they can’t, by the way. The big boys will probably get half of what they want; the middle guys a quarter. Expect the little money managers to not get a single share). Leaks have shown this is already over subscribed; bankers had allegedly stopped calling clients for interest a day early. And while I think Groupon will be significantly overvalued, a la LinkedIn, it will trade higher to start.
Currently, I am long GOOG, NFLX, AGQ, and SCO (so thus short, as a hedge). I took some loses on JVA, WPRT, ZAGG, and GMCR this week, but it will all be made back, AND MORE, especially given my massive NFLX win. The news flow still bothers me (but at this point, baring something actually happening, the market will shrug it off as it is tired of the rumors). Additionally, a lot of respectable traders are starting to get very bearish, so I will be either net short or neutral, best case, once The PPT goes overbought.
Also, I never took the time to thank Le Fly, RC, Cain, Wood, Jake, RC, Scott, Cronkite, Jeremy, and the rest of the IBC team. Thanks for being very helpful and for opening up this platform.
Enjoy the Groupon fireworks tomorrow.
Update: I am a bit disappointed with the GRPN IPO. I expected more of a pop on to start, but a 40% pop is still nice. And while I think it trades higher in the short term, at the end of the day it doesn’t generate cash. Hard to be long term bullish on it. Additionally, I personally am using this as a barometer to see how risky managers are. Clearly, they are still willing to take on risk. However, the days of LNKD going HAM have come and gone.
