I’m a big fan of ALJ — it has sold off from the high 11s to the low 9s. As anyone who has been on this site long enough knows, the refiners are in the sweet spot now. Significant sell volume came in on no real news. Rumors about a refinery suffering a setback due to longer than expected downtime are all that have surfaced. The stock is still in an uptrend, and volume has come in – perhaps showing a bottom.
A stop in the low 9s, say 9.10, is a decent max pain area – the most recent lows.
Seems like we are finally getting that pull back. The only real question I have is if this will be vicious selling that ruins all setups. But I’m not expecting anything crazy.
First and foremost, Apple has significant support at 460. Not really expecting it to get that low, though. Yes, volume was significant and to the downside. And yes, there was a bearish engulfing. But I don’t think this holds in the intermediate term.
Next, we have the S&P. We are above the falling trendline from the 07 highs. And we have rising support from October. These are at about 1320 and 1300, respectively. Something really funky would have to happen for us to break below both. I don’t see that happening unless we have ANOTHER euro crisis, whereby CDS and yields spike.
Regarding today’s sell off, bonds hardly moved. In fact, TLT finished down. Moreover, the Nasdaq held up better than most of the market, while the Russell 2000 underperformed, but did not struggle too badly.
TLT also looks like it may be in the first stages of giving out, as it is struggling to hold its trendline.
Lastly, buy the refiners on the dip. They are way overextended, but many have great fundamentals and a pullback would be beneficial. Also think that PMs will perform well if the dollar starts to relax.
I like Zolt long here if its MACD has a bullish cross on the 1Hour. It’s coiling up very nicely. On a close below 12.42, I’d cut losses.
CEO CFO gone — good riddance
How bad is there restatement going to be? Not bad enough to have the stock valuation be at 22$ a share. People shorting here are retarded.
Company isn’t going to default. I buy their products. Millions of others do. There is something there. It may go lower, but I can all but guarantee it will trade higher long term.
Seems like the new CEO they got is a decent business guy.
Assuming this is everything, even if there refilings are just “bad,” the lows are either in or are pretty close…
ONE MORE TERM!!
I’ve started a trade journal, where I will essentially paper trade and test ideas out, as since January started I have struggled. I am attributing this to my inability to mold fast enough to the market and the swift change from absurd volatility to little volatility and even less volume. This post will be brief thoughts on what I am seeing in the markets…
Soda looks like it had a key short term reversal today. Didn’t gap down but for all intensive purposes it did…. Close above 38 short term support and a solid red/green move. After yesterday’s effective doji and today’s tail lower being bought up, I think it can see a lot of upside fast, given its high short interest.
GMXR refuses to go down. Sellers have tried a few times already, and keep failing. It is due for a squeeze. I will be even more bullish if sellers try and fail to take it under 1.15 again. This has a high short interest as well.
The markets seem to want more and more. It feels like last year around this time when we churned higher on QE2.
As many I’m sure are aware, Natural Gas has been slaughtered. Chess pointed out there may have been capitulation selling recently. Regardless, the past two trading days have seen a sharp reversal for natural gas. As markets continue to rally and natural gas goes untouched, maybe it will get its turn shortly to squeeze higher. A good way to try to take advantage of this move is to go long GMXR, which has held up over $1.15, what seems to be its last line of support. Stochastics show oversold, and on the daily and some intraday time frames, there have been positive MACD crosses recently. If GMXR closes below $1.15, cut the loss.
HONEY BADGER DONT GIVE A SHIT.
The market is tossing aside downgrades and bad news like the honey badger destroys rattle snakes. Seriously, this market is nuts, and not just in the $DMND fashion. I feel like we are being trained, and rewarded, to buy, regardless of what is going on. Risk off assets have seen big influxes of money and are being bid up. Meanwhile, the euro is being pounded while the yen and the dollar are trading higher. Yet the worst of the worst stocks are trading higher, outside of my $gmxr, regretfully.
Correlations are no longer applying, and every dip is being bought. Buy all you can on the way up and keep buying, but the minute the market shows signs of fatigue, don’t be afraid to take your profits and show patience. Something ugly is brewing around the corner.
Crox seems to not be messing up, and in fact MIGHT be learning the secret to under promising and over delivering. Shares are pushing $17 after hours today as their 4Q is coming in higher than expected, at the upward part of its guided range. You can see in some of my older posts below some previous thoughts on Crox and why I think it fundamentally looks solid. I think it is also now technically solid. Furthermore, as for the Fly’s theme of investing in highly shorted names, as shorts have been taken to the woodshed in a wide variety of names like NFLX, GMCR, SOHU, etc., Crox is a name that may follow this recent trend. I think it can see 20, but I currently have no position.
http://ibankcoin.com/djmarcus/2011/10/26/im-fascinated-with-crocs/
http://ibankcoin.com/djmarcus/2011/10/27/crox-does-not-blow-it/
As some of you may know, I really enjoy watching TLT’s relationship vs. the equity markets. I’ve come to notice that TLT has been right significantly more often than it is wrong, whereby if TLT is significantly green on the day, as are the equity markets, the equity markets will usually sell off, or, at the very least, have limited to no upside left. But recently, over the past two weeks, this relationship is starting to erode. I’m not sure what it means. Is this just end of the year shenanigans? Or is there something actually changing in sentiment where investors are simply bidding up “less risky” names that drag up the markets to justify both equities and treasuries trading higher?
Regardless, I think equities are trading significantly higher than they should be. Over the next few weeks, I am expecting a vicious sell off. TLT is too high here, and equities are responding less than ever to people moving their money into risk-off assets.
Happy New Year.
NOTE: Saw this on a friend’s Facebook today – pretty funny. Enjoy:
I’m a big fan of ALJ — it has sold off from the high 11s to the low 9s. As anyone who has been on this site long enough knows, the refiners are in the sweet spot now. Significant sell volume came in on no real news. Rumors about a refinery suffering a setback due to longer than expected downtime are all that have surfaced. The stock is still in an uptrend, and volume has come in – perhaps showing a bottom.
A stop in the low 9s, say 9.10, is a decent max pain area – the most recent lows.
Seems like we are finally getting that pull back. The only real question I have is if this will be vicious selling that ruins all setups. But I’m not expecting anything crazy.
First and foremost, Apple has significant support at 460. Not really expecting it to get that low, though. Yes, volume was significant and to the downside. And yes, there was a bearish engulfing. But I don’t think this holds in the intermediate term.
Next, we have the S&P. We are above the falling trendline from the 07 highs. And we have rising support from October. These are at about 1320 and 1300, respectively. Something really funky would have to happen for us to break below both. I don’t see that happening unless we have ANOTHER euro crisis, whereby CDS and yields spike.
Regarding today’s sell off, bonds hardly moved. In fact, TLT finished down. Moreover, the Nasdaq held up better than most of the market, while the Russell 2000 underperformed, but did not struggle too badly.
TLT also looks like it may be in the first stages of giving out, as it is struggling to hold its trendline.
Lastly, buy the refiners on the dip. They are way overextended, but many have great fundamentals and a pullback would be beneficial. Also think that PMs will perform well if the dollar starts to relax.
I like Zolt long here if its MACD has a bullish cross on the 1Hour. It’s coiling up very nicely. On a close below 12.42, I’d cut losses.
CEO CFO gone — good riddance
How bad is there restatement going to be? Not bad enough to have the stock valuation be at 22$ a share. People shorting here are retarded.
Company isn’t going to default. I buy their products. Millions of others do. There is something there. It may go lower, but I can all but guarantee it will trade higher long term.
Seems like the new CEO they got is a decent business guy.
Assuming this is everything, even if there refilings are just “bad,” the lows are either in or are pretty close…
ONE MORE TERM!!
I’ve started a trade journal, where I will essentially paper trade and test ideas out, as since January started I have struggled. I am attributing this to my inability to mold fast enough to the market and the swift change from absurd volatility to little volatility and even less volume. This post will be brief thoughts on what I am seeing in the markets…
Soda looks like it had a key short term reversal today. Didn’t gap down but for all intensive purposes it did…. Close above 38 short term support and a solid red/green move. After yesterday’s effective doji and today’s tail lower being bought up, I think it can see a lot of upside fast, given its high short interest.
GMXR refuses to go down. Sellers have tried a few times already, and keep failing. It is due for a squeeze. I will be even more bullish if sellers try and fail to take it under 1.15 again. This has a high short interest as well.
The markets seem to want more and more. It feels like last year around this time when we churned higher on QE2.
As many I’m sure are aware, Natural Gas has been slaughtered. Chess pointed out there may have been capitulation selling recently. Regardless, the past two trading days have seen a sharp reversal for natural gas. As markets continue to rally and natural gas goes untouched, maybe it will get its turn shortly to squeeze higher. A good way to try to take advantage of this move is to go long GMXR, which has held up over $1.15, what seems to be its last line of support. Stochastics show oversold, and on the daily and some intraday time frames, there have been positive MACD crosses recently. If GMXR closes below $1.15, cut the loss.
HONEY BADGER DONT GIVE A SHIT.
The market is tossing aside downgrades and bad news like the honey badger destroys rattle snakes. Seriously, this market is nuts, and not just in the $DMND fashion. I feel like we are being trained, and rewarded, to buy, regardless of what is going on. Risk off assets have seen big influxes of money and are being bid up. Meanwhile, the euro is being pounded while the yen and the dollar are trading higher. Yet the worst of the worst stocks are trading higher, outside of my $gmxr, regretfully.
Correlations are no longer applying, and every dip is being bought. Buy all you can on the way up and keep buying, but the minute the market shows signs of fatigue, don’t be afraid to take your profits and show patience. Something ugly is brewing around the corner.
Crox seems to not be messing up, and in fact MIGHT be learning the secret to under promising and over delivering. Shares are pushing $17 after hours today as their 4Q is coming in higher than expected, at the upward part of its guided range. You can see in some of my older posts below some previous thoughts on Crox and why I think it fundamentally looks solid. I think it is also now technically solid. Furthermore, as for the Fly’s theme of investing in highly shorted names, as shorts have been taken to the woodshed in a wide variety of names like NFLX, GMCR, SOHU, etc., Crox is a name that may follow this recent trend. I think it can see 20, but I currently have no position.
http://ibankcoin.com/djmarcus/2011/10/26/im-fascinated-with-crocs/
http://ibankcoin.com/djmarcus/2011/10/27/crox-does-not-blow-it/
As some of you may know, I really enjoy watching TLT’s relationship vs. the equity markets. I’ve come to notice that TLT has been right significantly more often than it is wrong, whereby if TLT is significantly green on the day, as are the equity markets, the equity markets will usually sell off, or, at the very least, have limited to no upside left. But recently, over the past two weeks, this relationship is starting to erode. I’m not sure what it means. Is this just end of the year shenanigans? Or is there something actually changing in sentiment where investors are simply bidding up “less risky” names that drag up the markets to justify both equities and treasuries trading higher?
Regardless, I think equities are trading significantly higher than they should be. Over the next few weeks, I am expecting a vicious sell off. TLT is too high here, and equities are responding less than ever to people moving their money into risk-off assets.
Happy New Year.
NOTE: Saw this on a friend’s Facebook today – pretty funny. Enjoy:
