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Earnings Highlights: AES*, ABK*, AIG*, HANS*, LEAP*, MGA*, RBS*, TU*, & WCRX*

Scrolling Headlines From Yahoo in Play

AIG

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–American International Group, Inc. (AIG) today reported its first quarterly profit since the third quarter of 2007, as certain of its businesses stabilized and the company’s results reflected positive valuation changes. AIG also achieved several important milestones in its restructuring program.

For the second quarter ended June 30, 2009, AIG reported net income attributable to AIG of $1.8 billion, including net income attributable to AIG common shareholders of $311 million or $2.30 per diluted common share, compared with a net loss of $5.4 billion or $41.13 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2008. Second quarter 2009 adjusted net income was $2.0 billion, compared with an adjusted net loss of $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2008………

AES

Q2 adjusted EPS $0.28 vs $0.25 year-ago

* Q2 EPS, ex-items, $0.23 vs est $0.22

* Q2 consolidated revenue down 15 percent, but tops Street

* Raises FY 2009 adjusted earnings view

* Raises FY 2009 EPS from cont ops view Aug 7 (Reuters) – Power company AES Corp (AES.N) reported a jump in quarterly adjusted profit, helped by strong results in Chile, lower operating costs and a favorable tax settlement, and raised its 2009 profit view above analysts’ estimates.

AES now expects 2009 adjusted earnings of between $1.05 a share and $1.10 a share, up from an earlier forecast of $0.97 to $1.07 a share, while analysts are looking for earnings, before items, of $1.04 a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

The company also raised its 2009 earnings from continuing operations view to between $1.15 and $1.20 a share, from $1.03 to $1.13 a share.

For the latest second quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings rose to 28 cents a share, from 25 cents a share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, the company earned 23 cents a share, compared with analyst expectations of 22 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

However, consolidated revenue at the Arlington, Virginia-based company fell 15 percent to $3.5 billion, mostly due to unfavorable foreign currency translations.

Analysts were looking for revenue of $3.40 billion.

Shares of the company closed at $13.14 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.

For the alerts, double-click [ID:nWNBB1654] (Reporting by Shradhha Sharma in Bangalore; Editing by Aradhana Aravindan)

MGA

NEW YORK (AP) – Magna International Inc., the Canadian auto parts maker that is bidding for General Motors’ European Opel business, said Friday it lost $205 million in the second quarter as the global recession depressed auto sales and demand for its products.

Magna, along with Russian lender Sberbank, is among the suitors for GM’s Opel unit. The other potential suitor is Brussels-based investor RHJ International SA.

Aurora, Ontario-based Magna said its loss amounted to $1.83 per share for the quarter ended June 30, compared with a profit of $227 million, or $1.98 per share, a year ago.

Analysts predicted a loss of $1.01 per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll. Analysts’ estimates normally exclude one-time items.

Sales for the period ended June 30 slid 45 percent to $3.71 billion from $6.71 billion and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $4.1 billion.

Magna said complete vehicle assembly sales slumped 60 percent to $423 million, while the average dollar content per vehicle fell 10 percent in North America and 7 percent in Europe.


WRCX

ARDEE, Ireland, Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-Firstcall/ — Warner Chilcott Limited (Nasdaq: WCRXNews) today announced its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. Revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2009 increased 7.1% to $250.8 million over the prior year quarter. The primary drivers of the increase in revenue were the net sales of DORYX, LOESTRIN 24 FE and ESTRACE Cream which were partially offset by net sales declines of other products, primarily ESTROSTEP FE, SARAFEM and FEMHRT.

The Company reported net income of $56.0 million ($0.22 per diluted share) in the quarter ended June 30, 2009, compared with net income of $33.6 million ($0.13 per diluted share) in the prior year quarter, an increase of 66.9%. Cash net income (“CNI”) in the quarter ended June 30, 2009 rose to $109.2 million ($0.44 per diluted share), an increase of 29.6% over the prior year quarter.

References in this release to “cash net income” or “CNI” mean the Company’s net income adjusted for the after-tax effects of two non-cash items: amortization (including impairments, if any) of intangible assets and amortization (including write-offs, if any) of deferred loan costs related to the Company’s debt. Reconciliations from the Company’s reported results in accordance with US GAAP to CNI and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) for all periods are presented in the tables at the end of this press release.

Revenue

Revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2009 was $250.8 million, an increase of $16.6 million, or 7.1%, over the prior year quarter. The primary drivers of the increase in revenue were the net sales of DORYX, LOESTRIN 24 FE and ESTRACE Cream, which together contributed $28.0 million of revenue growth for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. The growth delivered by these products was partially offset by net sales declines in certain other products, primarily ESTROSTEP FE, SARAFEM and FEMHRT. Period over period changes in the net sales of our products are a function of a number of factors including changes in: market demand, gross selling prices, sales-related deductions from gross sales to arrive at net sales and the levels of pipeline inventories of our products held by our direct and indirect customers. The Company uses IMS Health, Inc. estimates of filled prescriptions for our products as a proxy for market demand.

Net sales of our oral contraceptive products increased $4.2 million, or 5.6%, in the quarter ended June 30, 2009, compared with the prior year quarter. LOESTRIN 24 FE generated revenues of $58.0 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2009, an increase of 15.5% compared with $50.2 million in the prior year quarter. The increase in LOESTRIN 24 FE net sales over the prior year quarter was primarily due to higher average selling prices and an increase in filled prescriptions of 10.3%, offset in part by the impact of higher sales-related deductions and a contraction of pipeline inventories relative to the prior year period. FEMCON FE generated revenues of $12.4 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2009, an increase of $1.7 million, or 14.7%, versus the prior year quarter. The increase in FEMCON FE net sales was primarily due to higher average selling prices and an increase in filled prescriptions of 6.3% in the quarter ended June 30, 2009, offset in part by a contraction of pipeline inventories relative to the prior year quarter…….

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RBS

The earnings statement came as RBS /quotes/comstock/23s!a:rbs (UK:RBS 46.95, -6.52, -12.20%) /quotes/comstock/13*!rbs/quotes/nls/rbs (RBS 15.70, -2.59, -14.16%) also appointed a new chief financial officer, completing a total overhaul of the bank’s senior management team after it was bailed out by the U.K. government.

The bank’s loss widened from an 827-million-pound deficit a year earlier and was worse than expected, driven by a five-fold increase in total impairments charges to 7.52 billion pounds.

The loss would have been even bigger if it wasn’t for a 3.8 billion pound gain from redemption of some of its debt.

Shares in the group dropped 12.2% in London. The stock, however, is still up around 4% for the week. The recent gains mean the shares had briefly traded above the 50.5 pence average price that the government paid for its roughly 70% stake.

CEO Stephen Hester, who replaced Fred Goodwin last year, said he believes taxpayers will get all their money back, but said there “will be no miracle cures.”

“Our task is no less than one of the largest bank restructurings ever done, in the face of strong economic headwinds,” Hester said.

“Overall results may not substantially improve until 2011, and full recovery will take time.”

RBS Reports 1 Billion Pound Loss

The Royal Bank of Scotland on Friday reported a 1 billion pound loss on soaring charges for bad debt, and the market reacted with dismay to the bank’s outlook. But CEO Stephen Hester says the British taxpayer, which is the majority owner, will in time be rewarded.

He was also much more cautious about the outlook for loan losses than Eric Daniels, the CEO of Lloyds Banking Group /quotes/comstock/23s!a:lloy (UK:LLOY 98.52, -6.30, -6.02%) /quotes/comstock/13i!lyg/quotes/nls/lyg (LYG 6.66, -0.42, -5.93%) , who said Wednesday that Lloyds’ impairments had likely peaked. See archived story.

Hester told analysts that if impairments follow the pattern of past recessions, they’re likely to stay high for two or three years.

Analysts at Killik & Co. said Hester’s comments could “remove some of the short-term froth” from share prices across the sector.

“The tone of the statement is definitely more candid than those released by others, maybe due in part to the fact that Stephen Hester is new to the role and is therefore able to communicate a more-realistic assessment of the outlook for the group,” Killik said.

Targets set

The bank set out a string of targets to return it to financial viability, including lifting its Core Tier 1 capital ratio to more than 8% in 2013 and slashing its reliance on wholesale funding by more than half over the same timeframe.

It’s also halfway through a plan to reduce its balance sheet by 500 billion pounds through the closure or sale of businesses that have been designated as non-core.

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VANCOUVER, Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ – TELUS Corporation reported second quarter 2009 revenue of $2.38 billion, a decrease of $22 million from last year. The one per cent decrease reflects continued declines in voice revenues that more than offset growth in data revenues. Consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) decreased by five per cent due primarily to a $49 million increase in restructuring costs from ongoing operating efficiency initiatives. Underlying EBITDA increased $34 million, or nearly four per cent, excluding higher restructuring costs and defined benefit pension plan expenses. The increase in underlying EBITDA reflects strong cost containment as operations expense decreased two per cent.

Net income in the second quarter was $244 million and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.77, a decrease of nine and seven per cent respectively. Net income and EPS this quarter included favourable income tax-related adjustments of approximately $19 million or six cents per share, respectively. Excluding the income tax-related adjustments, net income and EPS were down 16 and 14 per cent, respectively.

TELUS increased capital expenditures by $122 million to fund its ongoing wireless and wireline broadband build-out initiatives. As a result, free cash flow was down 43 per cent to $144 million this quarter, which was also lower due to increased restructuring costs and pension contributions……

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HANS

CORONA, Calif. (AP) — Hansen Natural Corp., which makes sodas and energy drinks, said Thursday its second-quarter profit rose 14 percent as robust sales of its Monster Energy drink boosted results.

The earnings exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driving up Hansen’s stock 8.7 percent in after-hours trading.

Net income rose to $57.3 million, or 60 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30. That compares with $50.2 million, or 51 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier.

Net sales climbed 6.4 percent to $300.2 million from $282.2 million in the year-earlier period.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, expected a profit of 60 cents per share on revenue of $309.24 million. Wall Street analysts usually exclude one-time items in their estimates.

Rodney C. Sacks, Hansen’s chairman and CEO, said revenue reached record levels thanks to sustained strong sales of the company’s Monster Energy drinks.

Hansen’s move to certain Coca-Cola bottlers and new Anheuser-Busch distributors at the end of last year has paid dividends for the company, which has seen its market share grow in its main distribution channels nationally — convenience and grocery stores.

Shares of Hansen jumped $2.66, or 8.7 percent, to $33.35 in after-hours trading. During the regular session, the stock rose $1.11, or 3.5 percent, to close at $30.69.

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LEAP

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Leap Wireless International Inc. said Thursday that its second-quarter loss widened due to the repayment of debt and other debt-related expenses. The wireless communications company’s revenue climbed 30 percent, but still fell short of analyst expectations.

Leap shares fell $4.29, or 19 percent, in after-hours trading, after finishing regular trading at $22.59.

For the quarter that ended June 30, Leap’s loss totaled $62.8 million, or 89 cents per share, compared with a loss of $26.6 million, or 39 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

The company said the loss included 37 cents per share for a repayment on its $1.1 billion credit facility in June and 26 cents per share for increased interest expense related to its decision to issue senior and senior convertible notes in June 2008 and June 2009.

Revenue rose 26 percent to $597.4 million, as service revenue jumped 30 percent to $541.6 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, who generally exclude one-time items from their estimates, expected a smaller loss of 30 cents per share on $636.1 million in revenue.

Leap said it added 202,767 net customers in the quarter, up nearly 19 percent year over year. But the company’s churn rate, or the rate at which it lost customers, was 4.4 percent — an increase from 3.8 percent last year.

The company had 4.5 million customers at the end of the quarter, up more than 37 percent from the 3.3 million it had at the end of the same quarter last year.

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Editorial: Horse Puckey Or

The greatest story ever told !

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Global Research, August 3, 2009
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This essay is Part 3 of “Global Power and Global Government,” published by Global Research.

Part 1: Evolution and Revolution of the Central Banking System
Part 2: Origins of the American Empire: Revolution, World Wars and World Order


The Bilderberg Group and the European Union Project

In 1954, the Bilderberg Group was founded in the Netherlands, which was a secretive meeting held once a year, drawing roughly 130 of the political-financial-military-academic-media elites from North America and Western Europe as “an informal network of influential people who could consult each other privately and confidentially.”[1] Regular participants include the CEOs or Chairman of some of the largest corporations in the world, oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, and Total SA, as well as various European monarchs, international bankers such as David Rockefeller, major politicians, presidents, prime ministers, and central bankers of the world.[2]


Joseph Retinger, the founder of the Bilderberg Group, was also one of the original architects of the European Common Market and a leading intellectual champion of European integration. In 1946, he told the Royal Institute of International Affairs (the British counterpart and sister organization of the Council on Foreign Relations), that Europe needed to create a federal union and for European countries to “relinquish part of their sovereignty.” Retinger was a founder of the European Movement (EM), a lobbying organization dedicated to creating a federal Europe. Retinger secured financial support for the European Movement from powerful US financial interests such as the Council on Foreign Relations and the Rockefellers.[3] However, it is hard to distinguish between the CFR and the Rockefellers, as, especially following World War II, the CFR’s main finances came from the Carnegie Corporation, Ford Foundation and most especially, the Rockefeller Foundation.[4]


The Bilderberg Group acts as a “secretive global think-tank,” with an original intent to “to link governments and economies in Europe and North America amid the Cold War.”[5] One of the Bilderberg Group’s main goals was unifying Europe into a European Union. Apart from Retinger, the founder of the Bilderberg Group and the European Movement, another ideological founder of European integration was Jean Monnet, who founded the Action Committee for a United States of Europe, an organization dedicated to promoting European integration, and he was also the major promoter and first president of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the precursor to the European Common Market.[6]


Declassified documents (released in 2001) showed that “the US intelligence community ran a campaign in the Fifties and Sixties to build momentum for a united Europe. It funded and directed the European federalist movement.”[7] The documents revealed that, “America was working aggressively behind the scenes to push Britain into a European state. One memorandum, dated July 26, 1950, gives instructions for a campaign to promote a fully-fledged European parliament. It is signed by Gen William J Donovan, head of the American wartime Office of Strategic Services, precursor of the CIA.” Further, “Washington’s main tool for shaping the European agenda was the American Committee for a United Europe, created in 1948. The chairman was Donovan, ostensibly a private lawyer by then,” and “The vice-chairman was Allen Dulles, the CIA director in the Fifties. The board included Walter Bedell Smith, the CIA’s first director, and a roster of ex-OSS figures and officials who moved in and out of the CIA. The documents show that ACUE financed the European Movement, the most important federalist organisation in the post-war years.” Interestingly, “The leaders of the European Movement – Retinger, the visionary Robert Schuman and the former Belgian prime minister Paul-Henri Spaak – were all treated as hired hands by their American sponsors. The US role was handled as a covert operation. ACUE’s funding came from the Ford and Rockefeller foundations as well as business groups with close ties to the US government.”[8]


The European Coal and Steel Community was formed in 1951, and signed by France, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Newly released documents from the 1955 Bilderberg meeting show that a main topic of discussion was “European Unity,” and that “The discussion affirmed complete support for the idea of integration and unification from the representatives of all the six nations of the Coal and Steel Community present at the conference.” Further, “A European speaker expressed concern about the need to achieve a common currency, and indicated that in his view this necessarily implied the creation of a central political authority.” Interestingly, “A United States participant confirmed that the United States had not weakened in its enthusiastic support for the idea of integration, although there was considerable diffidence in America as to how this enthusiasm should be manifested. Another United States participant urged his European friends to go ahead with the unification of Europe with less emphasis upon ideological considerations and, above all, to be practical and work fast.”[9] Thus, at the 1955 Bilderberg Group meeting, they set as a primary agenda, the creation of a European common market.[10]


In 1957, two years later, the Treaty of Rome was signed, which created the European Economic Community (EEC), also known as the European Community. Over the decades, various other treaties were signed, and more countries joined the European Community. In 1992, the Maastricht Treaty was signed, which created the European Union and led to the creation of the Euro. The European Monetary Institute was created in 1994, the European Central Bank was founded in 1998, and the Euro was launched in 1999. Etienne Davignon, Chairman of the Bilderberg Group and former EU Commissioner, revealed in March of 2009 that the Euro was debated and planned at Bilderberg conferences.[11] This was an example of regionalism, of integrating an entire region of the world, a whole continent, into a large supranational structure. This was one of the primary functions of the Bilderberg Group, which would also come to play a major part in other international issues.

Interdependence Theory


The theoretical justifications for integration and regionalism arrived in the 1960s with what is known as “interdependence theory.” One of its primary proponents was a man named Richard N. Cooper. Two other major proponents of interdependence theory are Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye. Interdependence theory and theorists largely expand upon the notions raised by Keynes.


Richard Cooper wrote that, during the 1960s “there has been a strong trend toward economic interdependence among the industrial countries. This growing interdependence makes the successful pursuit of national economic objectives much more difficult.” He also identified that “the objective of greater economic integration involves international agreements which reduce the number of policy instruments available to national authorities for pursuit of their economic objectives.”[12] Further, “Cooper argues that new policies are needed to address the unprecedented conditions of international interdependence.”[13]


Cooper also opposed a return to mercantilist pursuits in order for nations to secure economic objectives, arguing that, “economic nationalism invited policy competition that is doomed to fail,” and thus concludes “that international policy coordination is virtually the only means to achieve national economic goals in an interdependent world.”[14]


Keohane and Nye go into further analysis of interdependence, specifically focusing on how interdependence transforms international politics. They tend to frame their concepts in ideological opposition to international relations realists, who view the world, like mercantilists, as inherently anarchic. Keohane and Nye construct what is known as “complex interdependence,” in which they critique realism. They analyze realism as consisting of two primary facets: that states are the main actors in the international arena, and that military force is central in international power. They argue that, “global economic interdependence has cast doubt on these assumptions. Transnational corporations and organizations born of economic integration now vie with states for global influence.”[15]


Keohane and Nye also discuss the relevance and importance of international regimes in the politics of interdependence, defining regimes as “networks of rules, norms, and procedures that regularize behavior.” They argue that, “Regimes are affected by the distribution of power among states, but regimes, in turn, may critically influence the bargaining process among states.”[16] Again, this contests the realist and mercantilist notions of the international sphere being one of chaos, as a regime can produce and maintain order within the international arena.


Interdependence theorists tend to argue that interdependence has altered the world order in that it has become based upon cooperation and mutual interests, largely championing the liberal economic notion of a non-chaotic and cooperative international order in which all nations seek and gain a mutual benefit. Ultimately, it justifies the continued process of global economic integration, while realist and mercantilist theorists, who interdependence theorists contest and debate, justify the use of force in the international arena in terms of describing it as inherently chaotic. In theory, the notions of mercantilism and liberalism are inimical to one another however, they are not mutually exclusive and are, in fact, mutually reinforcing. Events throughout the 1970s are a clear example of this mutually reinforcing nature of mercantilist behaviour on the part of states, and the “interdependence” of the liberal economic order.


As early mercantilist theorist Frederick List wrote in regards to integration and union, “All examples which history can show are those in which the political union has led the way, and the commercial union has followed. Not a single instance can be adduced in which the latter has taken the lead, and the former has grown up from it.”[17] It would appear that the elites have chosen the road less traveled in the 20th century, with the Bilderberg Group pursuing integration and union in Europe by starting with commercial union and having political union follow. This concept is also evident in the notions of interdependence theory, which focuses on global economic integration as changing the realist/mercantilist notions of a chaotic international order, as states and other actors become more cooperative through such economic ties.

Trilateralism

In the late 1960s, Western European economies (in particular West Germany) and Japan were rapidly developing and expanding. Their currencies rose against the US dollar, which was pegged to the price of gold as a result of the Bretton Woods System, which, through the IMF, set up an international monetary system based upon the US dollar, which was pegged to gold. However, with the growth of West Germany and Japan, “by the late 1960s the system could no longer be expected to perform its previous function as a medium for international exchange, and as a surrogate for gold.” On top of this, to maintain its vast empire, the US had developed a large balance-of-payments deficit.[18]


Richard Nixon took decisive, and what many referred to as “protectionist” measures, and in 1971, ended the dollar’s link to gold, which “resulted in a devaluation of the dollar as it began to float against other currencies,” and “was meant to restore the competitiveness of the US economy,”[19] as with devaluation, “U.S.-made goods would cost less to foreigners and foreign-made goods would be less competitive on the U.S. market.” The second major action taken by Nixon was when he “slapped a ten percent surcharge on most imports into the United States,” which was to benefit U.S. manufacturing firms over foreign ones in competition for the U.S. market. The result was that less imports from Asia were coming into the US, more US goods were sold in their markets at more competitive prices, forcing Japan and the European Economic Community (EEC) to relax their trade barriers to US products.[20]


An article in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Council on Foreign Relations, referred to Nixon’s New Economic Policy as “protectionist,” encouraging a “disastrous isolationist trend,”[21] and that Nixon shattered “the linchpin of the entire international monetary system— on whose smooth functioning the world economy depends.”[22] Another article in Foreign Affairs explained that the Atlanticist, or internationalist faction of the US elite were in particular, upset with Nixon’s New Economic Policy, however, they “agreed on the diagnosis: the relative balance of economic strengths had so changed that the United States could no longer play the role of economic leader. But they also argued that further American unilateralism would fuel a spiral of defensive reactions that would leave all the Western economies worse off. Their suggested remedy, instead, was much more far-reaching coordination among all the trilateral [North American, European and Japanese] governments.”[23]


There was a consensus within the American ruling class that the Bretton Woods System was in need of a change, but there were divisions among members in how to go about changing it. The more powerful (and wealthy) international wing feared how US policies may isolate and alienate Western Europe and Japan, and they advocated that, “The world economic roles of America must be reconciled with the growth to power of Europe and Japan. There must be fundamental reform of the international monetary system. There must be renewed efforts to reduce world trade barriers. The underlying U.S. balance of payments has deteriorated.” However, Nixon “went much too far” as he alienated Western Europe and Japan.


In 1970, David Rockefeller became Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, while also being Chairman and CEO of Chase Manhattan. In 1970, an academic who joined the Council on Foreign Relations in 1965 wrote a book called Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technetronic Era. The author, Zbigniew Brzezinski, called for the formation of “A Community of the Developed Nations,” consisting of Western Europe, the United States and Japan. Brzezinski wrote about how “the traditional sovereignty of nation states is becoming increasingly unglued as transnational forces such as multinational corporations, banks, and international organizations play a larger and larger role in shaping global politics.” David Rockefeller had taken note of Brzezinski’s writings, and was “getting worried about the deteriorating relations between the U.S., Europe, and Japan,” as a result of Nixon’s economic shocks. In 1972, David Rockefeller and Brzezinski “presented the idea of a trilateral grouping at the annual Bilderberg meeting.” In July of 1972, seventeen powerful people met at David Rockefeller’s estate in New York to plan for the creation of the Commission. Also at the meeting was Brzezinski, McGeorge Bundy, the President of the Ford Foundation, (brother of William Bundy, editor of Foreign Affairs) and Bayless Manning, President of the Council on Foreign Relations.[24] So, in 1973, the Trilateral Commission was formed to address these issues.


A 1976 article in Foreign Affairs explained that, “Trilateralism as a linguistic expression—and the Trilateral Commission—arose in the early 1970s from the reaction of the more Atlanticist part of the American foreign policy community to the belligerent and defensive unilateralism that characterized the foreign economic policy of the Nixon Administration.”[25] The Commission’s major concerns were to preserve for the “industrialized societies,” in other words, seek mutual gain for the Trilateral nations, and to construct “a common approach to the needs and demands of the poorer nations.” However, this should be read as, “constructing a common approach to [dealing with] poorer nations.” As well as this, the Commission would undertake “t
he coordination of defense policies and of policies toward such highly politicized issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and aerial hijacking, and such highly politicized geographic areas as the Middle East or Southern Africa.”[26]


Interestingly, interdependence theorist Joseph Nye is a member of the Trilateral Commission, as is Richard N. Cooper.[27] Today, Joseph Nye is a member of the Board of Directors of the Council on Foreign Relations,[28] and Richard N. Cooper was a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations from 1993-1994.[29]


The end of the link of the dollar to gold meant that, “the US was no longer subject to the discipline of having to try to maintain a fixed par value of the dollar against gold or anything else: it could let the dollar move as the US Treasury [and ultimately, the Federal Reserve] wished and pointed towards the removal of gold from international monetary affairs.” This created a dollar standard, as opposed to a gold standard, which “places the direction of the world monetary policy in the hands of a single country,” which was “not acceptable to Western Europe or Japan.”[30] Addressing this issue was among the reasoning behind the creation of the Trilateral Commission.

The Oil Crisis

The May 1973 meeting of the Bilderberg Group occurred five months prior to the extensive oil price rises brought about by the Yom Kippur War. However, according to leaked minutes from the meeting, a 400% increase in the price of oil was discussed, and meeting participants were creating a “plan [on] how to manage the about-to-be-created flood of oil dollars.”[31] Oil is no issue foreign to the interests of the Bilderberg Group, as among the 1973 participants were the CEOs of Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum (BP), Total S.A., ENI, Exxon, as well as significant banking interests and individuals such as Baron Edmond de Rothschild and David Rockefeller, and the US Secretary of State at the time, Henry Kissinger.[32]


In 1955, Henry Kissinger, a young scholar at the time, was brought into the Council on Foreign Relations, where he distinguished himself as a prominent Council member and became a protégé to Nelson Rockefeller, one of David Rockefeller’s brothers. In 1969, Kissinger became Richard Nixon’s National Security Adviser.[33] This Bilderberg meeting was taking place during a time of great international instability, particularly in the Middle East.


Kissinger, as National Security Adviser, was in a power struggle with Secretary of State William Rogers over foreign policy. Nixon even referred to the continual power struggle between Kissinger as National Security Advisor and Secretary of State William Rogers, saying that, “Henry’s personality problem is just too goddamn difficult for us to deal [with],” and that Kissinger’s “psychopathic about trying to screw [Secretary of State William] Rogers.” Nixon even said that if Kissinger wins the struggle against Rogers, Kissinger would “be a dictator.” Nixon told his Chief of Staff, Haldeman, that Kissinger feels “he must be present every time I see anybody important.”[34]


At the time of the Yom Kippur War, Nixon was in the middle of major domestic issues, as the Watergate scandal was breaking, leading to an increase in the power and influence of Kissinger, as “The president was deeply preoccupied, and at times incapacitated by self-pity or alcohol.”[35] By 1970, Kissinger had Rogers “frozen out of policy-making on Southeast Asia,” during the Vietnam War, so Rogers “concentrated on the Middle East.” Eventually, Nixon had Rogers resign, and then Henry Kissinger took the position as both National Security Advisor and Secretary of State.[36]


As Kissinger later said in a speech marking the 25th anniversary of the Trilateral Commission, “In 1973, when I served as Secretary of State, David Rockefeller showed up in my office one day to tell me that he thought I needed a little help,” and that, “David’s function in our society is to recognize great tasks, to overcome the obstacles, to help find and inspire the people to carry them out, and to do it with remarkable delicacy.” Kissinger finished his speech by saying, “David, I respect you and admire you for what you have done with the Trilateral Commission. You and your family have represented what goes for an aristocracy in our country—a sense of obligation not only to make it materially possible, but to participate yourself in what you have made possible and to infuse it with the enthusiasm, the innocence, and the faith that I identify with you and, if I may say so, with your family.”[37]


Kissinger sabotaged Rogers’ peace negotiations with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who, at the time, was trying to rally other Arab leaders against Israel. In 1972, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia had “insisted that oil should not be used as a political weapon.” However, “in 1973, Faisal announced that he was changing his mind about an oil embargo.” Faisal held a meeting with western oil executives, warning them. Sadat told Faisal of the plan to attack Israel, and Faisal agreed to help both financially and with the “oil weapon.” Days later, the Saudi oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Yamani, “began dropping hints to the oil companies about a cutback in production that would affect the United States.” Yamani said Henry Kissinger had been “misleading President Nixon about the seriousness of Faisal’s intentions.”[38]


On October 4, the US National Security Agency (NSA) “knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that an attack on Israel would take place on the afternoon of October 6.” However, the Nixon White House “ordered the NSA to sit on the information,” until the US warned Israel a few hours before the attack, even though “Nixon’s staff had at least two days’ advance warning that an attack was coming on October 6.”[39] Hours before the attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt, the U.S. warned its Israeli counterparts, however, “the White House insisted that the Israelis do nothing: no preemptive strikes, no firing the first shot. If Israel wanted American support, Kissinger warned, it could not even begin to mobilize until the Arabs invaded.” Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir stood Israeli defences down, citing “Kissinger’s threats as the major reason.” Interestingly, Kissinger himself was absent from his office on the day of the attack, and he knew days before when it was set to take place, yet, still went to the Waldorf Astoria in New York. Further, he waited three days before convening a U.N. Security Council meeting.[40] The attack needed to go forward, as directed by the backdoor diplomacy of Kissinger.


With the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War on October 6, 1973, Kissinger “centered control of the crisis in his own hands.” After the Israelis informed the White House that the attack on them had taken place, Kissinger did not consult Nixon or even inform him on anything for three hours, who was at his retreat in Florida. After talking to Nixon hours later, Kissinger told him that, “we are on top of it here,” and “the president left matters in Kissinger’s hands.” Alexander Haig, Kissinger’s former second in command in the National Security Council, then Chief of Staff to Nixon, was with the President on that morning. Haig told Kissinger “that Nixon was considering returning to Washington, [but] Kissinger discouraged it—part of a recurring pattern to keep Nixon out of the process.” For three days, it was Kissinger who “oversaw the diplomatic exchanges with the Israelis and Soviets about the war. Israeli prime minister Golda Meir’s requests for military supplies, which were beginning to run low, came not to Nixon but to Kissinger.” On October 11, the British Prime Minister called asking to speak to Nixon, to which Kissinger responded, “Can we tell them no? When I talked to the President he was loaded,” but the British were told, “the prime minister could speak to Kissinger.”[41]


On October 12, the major American oil companies sent a letter to Nixon suggesting the Arab countries “should receive some price increase,” and Nixon, following Kissinger’s advice, sent arms to Israel, which precipitated the Arab OPEC countries to announce a 70% increase in the price of oil on October 16th, and announce an oil embargo against the US on the 17th.[42]


The Bilderberg meeting five months prior involved participants planning “how to manage the about-to-be-created flood of oil dollars.” At the meeting, an OPEC Middle East oil revenue rise of over 400% was predicted. A Bilderberg document from the meeting stated that, “The task of improving relations between energy importing countries should begin with consultations between Europe, the US and Japan. These three regions, which represented about 60 per cent of world energy consumption, accounted for an even greater proportion of world trade in energy products, as they absorbed 80 per cent of world energy exports.” The same document also stated that “an energy crisis or an increase in energy costs could irremediably jeopardize the economic expansion of developing countries which had no resources of their own,” and the “misuse or inadequate control of the financial resources of the oil producing countries could completely disorganize and undermine the world monetary system.”[43]


As economist F. William Engdahl noted in his book, A Century of War, “One enormous consequence of the ensuing 400 per cent rise in OPEC oil prices was that investments of hundreds of millions of dollars by British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell [both present at Bilderberg] and other Anglo-American petroleum concerns in the risky North Sea could produce oil at a profit,” as “the profitability of these new North Sea oilfields was not at all secure until after the OPEC price rises.”[44] In 2001, the former Saudi representative to OPEC, Sheik Ahmed Yamani, said, “’I am 100 per cent sure that the Americans were behind the increase in the price of oil. The oil companies were in real trouble at that time, they had borrowed a lot of money and they needed a high oil price to save them.” When he was sent by King Faisal to the Shah of Iran in 1974, the Shah said that it was Henry Kissinger who wanted a higher price for oil.[45]


An article in Foreign Policy, the journal published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, concluded from exhaustive research, that, “Since 1971, the United States has encouraged Middle East oil-producing states to raise the price of oil and keep it up.” This conclusion was based upon State Department documents, congressional testimony and interviews with former policy-makers.[46] At the Eighth Petroleum Congress of the League of Arab States (Arab League) in 1972, James Akins, head of the fuel and energy section of the State Department, gave a speech in which he said that oil prices were “expected to go up sharply due to lack of short-term alternatives to Arab oil,” and that this was, “an unavoidable trend.” A Western observer at the meeting said Akins’ speech was essentially, “advocating that Arabs raise the price of oil to $5 per barrel.” The oil industry itself was also becoming more unified in their position. The National Petroleum Council (NPC), “a government advisory body representing oil industry interests, waited until Nixon was safely re-elected before publishing a voluminous series of studies calling for a doubling of U.S. oil and gas prices.”[47]


The summer before the Yom Kippur War, in 1973, James Akins was made U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. He also happened to be a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.[48] Saudi Arabian minister for petroleum and representative to OPEC, Sheik Ahmed Yamani, stated in February of 1973, that, “it is in the interests of the oil companies that prices be raised,” as “their profits are collected from the production stage.” It was also in the interests of the US, as OPEC will have a massive increase in revenues to be invested, likely in the US, itself.[49]


The oil companies themselves were also fearful of having their business facilities in OPEC countries nationalized, so they “were anxious to engage OPEC countries in the oil business in the United States, in order to give them an interest in maintaining the status quo.” Weeks before war broke out, the National Security Council, headed by Kissinger, issued a statement saying that military intervention in the event of a war in the Middle East was “ruled out of order.”[50]


U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, James Akins, later testified in congress on the fact that when, in 1975, the Saudis went to Iran to try to get the Shah to roll back the price of oil, they were told that Kissinger told the Iranians that, “the United States understood Iran’s desire for higher oil prices.”[51] Akins was removed from Saudi Arabia in 1975, “following policy disputes with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.”[52]


The OPEC oil price increases resulted in the “removal of some withholding taxes on foreign investment” in the United States, “unchecked arms sales, which cannot be handled without U.S. support personnel, to Iran and Saudi Arabia,” as well as an “attempt to suppress publication of data on volume of OPEC funds on deposit with U.S. banks.”[53] Ultimately, the price increases “would be of competitive advantage to the United States because the economic damage would be greater to Europe and Japan.” Interestingly, “Programs for sopping up petrodollars have themselves become justifications for the continued flow of U.S. and foreign funds to pay for higher priced oil. In fact, a lobby of investors, businessmen, and exporters [was] growing in the United States to favor giving the OPEC countries their way.” Outside the United States, it is “widely believed” that the high-priced oil policy was aimed at hurting Europe, Japan, and the developing world.[54] There was also “input from the oil industry” which went “into the formulation of U.S. international oil policy.”[55]


In 1974, when a White House official suggested to the Treasury to force OPEC to lower the price of oil, his idea was swept under, and he later stated that, “It was the banking leaders who swept aside this advice and pressed for a ‘recycling’ program to accommodate to higher oil prices.” In 1975, a Wall Street investment banker was sent to Saudi Arabia to be the main investment adviser to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), and “he was to guide the Saudi petrodollar investments to the correct banks, naturally in London and New York.”[56]


In 1974, another OPEC oil price increase of more than 100 percent was undertaken, following a meeting in Tehran, Iran. This initiative was undertaken by the Shah of Iran, who just months before was opposed to the earlier price increases. Sheikh Yamani, the Saudi oil minister, was sent to meet with the Shah of Iran following his surprise decision to raise prices, as Yamani was sent by Saudi King Faisal, who was worried that higher prices would alienate the US, to which the Shah said to Yamani, “Why are you against the increase in the price of oil? That is what they want? Ask Henry Kissinger – he is the one who wants a higher price.”[57]


As Peter Gowan stated in The Globalization Gamble, “the oil price rises were the result of US influence on the oil states and they were arranged in part as an exercise in economic statecraft directed against America’s ‘allies’ in Western Europe and Japan. And another dimension of the Nixon administration’s policy on oil price rises was to give a new role, through them, to the US private banks in international financial relations.” He explained that the Nixon administration was pursuing a higher oil price policy two years before the Yom Kippur War, and “as early as 1972 the Nixon administration planned for the US private banks to recycle the petrodollars when OPEC finally did take US advice and jack up oil prices.”[58] Ultimately, the price rises had devastating impacts on Western Europe and Japan, which were quickly growing economies, but which were heavily dependent upon Middle eastern oil. This is an example of how the US, while championing a liberal international economic order, acted in a mercantilist fashion, depriving competitors through improving its own power and influence.


In 1973, David Rockefeller set up the Trilateral Commission to promote coordination and cooperation among Japan, Western Europe, and North America (namely, the US), yet, in the same year, his good friend and close confidante, Henry Kissinger, played a key role in promoting and orchestrating the oil price rises that had a damaging impact upon Japan and Western Europe. Also it should be noted, David Rockefeller’s Chase Manhattan Bank, of which he was CEO at the time, profited immensely off of the petrodollar recycling system promoted by Henry Kissinger, where the OPEC countries would reinvest their new excess capital into the American economy through London and New York banks.


How does one account for these seemingly diametrically opposed initiatives? Perhaps the oil crisis, having a negative effect on Japan and Western European economies, could have spurred the necessity for cooperation among the trilateral countries, forcing them to come together and coordinate future policies.


It is of vital importance to understand the global conditions in which the price rises and its solutions arose, particularly in relation to the Third World. Africa, since the late 1800s, had been under European colonial control. It was from the 1950s to the 1960s that almost all African countries were granted independence from their European metropoles. Africa is a very significant case to look at, as it is extremely rich in many resources, from agriculture to oil, minerals, and a huge variety of other resources used all around the world. If African nations were able to develop their own economies, use their own resources, and create their own industries and businesses, they could become self-sufficient at first, and then may become a force of great competition for the established industries and elites around the world. After all, Europe does not have much to offer in terms of resources, as the continent’s wealth has largely come from plundering the resources of regions like Africa, and in becoming captains of monetary manipulation. A revitalized, vibrant, economically independent and successful Africa could spell the end of Western financial dominance. “Between 1960 and 1975 African industry grew at the annual rate of 7.5 per cent. This compared favourably with the 7.2 per cent for Latin America and 7.5 per cent for South-East Asia.”[59] In Africa, “the 1960-73 period witnessed some important first steps in the process of industrialization,” however, “[t]he dramatic decline in rates of industrialization began to show after the first ‘oil crisis’. Between 1973 and 1984, the rate of growth” rapidly declined.[60]


So, by manipulating the price of oil, you can manipulate the development of the Third World, which was beginning to look as if it could grow into significant competition, as it was experiencing exponential growth. There were two oil shocks in the 1970s; one in 1973 and another in 1979. Following the price rises, there was a need for the developing countries of the world to borrow money to finance development.


The banks that were getting massive amounts of petrodollars deposited into them from the oil producing countries needed to “recycle” the dollars by investing them somewhere, in order to make a profit. Luckily for the banks, “[d]eveloping countries were desperate for funds to help them industrialize their economies. In some cases, developing countries were oil consumers and required loans to help pay for rising oil prices. In other cases, a decision had been made to follow a strategy of indebted industrialization. This meant that states borrowed money to invest in industrialization and would pay off the loans from the profits of their new industries. Loans were an attractive option because they did not come with the influence of foreign transnational corporations that accompanied foreign direct investment and most states had few funds of their own to invest.”[61]


The oil price rises “changed the face of world finance,” as: “In the new era of costly energy, scores of countries, not all of them in the Third World, were too strapped to pay their imported-oil bills. At the same time, Western banks suddenly received a rush of deposits from oil-producing nations. It seemed only logical, even humane, that the banks should recycle petrodollars.” This is where the true face of Trilateralism began to show: “It became an everyday event for one or two lead banks in the U.S. or Western Europe to round up dozens of partners by telephone to put together so-called jumbo syndicates for loans to developing countries. Some bankers were so afraid of missing out that during lunch hours they even empowered their secretaries to promise $5 million or $10 million as part of any billion-dollar loan package for Brazil or Mexico.” Interestingly, these banks argued, “that their foreign loans were encouraged by officials at the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Board. They feared that developing countries would become economically and politically unstable if credit was denied. In 1976 Arthur Burns, chairman of the Federal Reserve, began cautioning bankers that they might be lending too much overseas, but he did nothing to curb the loans. For the most part, they ignored the warning. Financiers were confident that countries like Mexico, with its oil reserves, and Brazil, with abundant mineral resources, were good credit risks.”[62]


According to a report produced by the Federal Reserve, prior to the 1973 oil crisis, “the private Japanese financial system remained largely isolated from the rest of the world. The system was highly regulated,” and, “various types of banking firms and other financial service firms were legally and administratively confined to a specified range of activities assigned to each.” However, the “OPEC oil shock in 1973 signaled a turning point in the operation of the Japanese financial system.”[63] As part of this turning point, the Bank of Japan (the central bank of Japan), relaxed “monetary control by lending more generously to the major banks. The result was a growing budget deficit and a rapid rise in inflation.”[64] The deregulation of Japanese banking access to foreign markets went hand-in-hand with the deregulation of domestic markets. It was a two-way street; as Japanese industry and banks gained access to foreign markets, foreign industry and banks gained access to the Japanese market. This led to the growth of Japanese banks internationally, of which today many are among the largest banks in the world. This was a result of the Trilateral Commission’s efforts. Also evident of the Trilateral partnership was that western banks “made loans so that poor countries could purchase goods made in Western Europe and North America.”[65]


Of great significance was that, “
the new international monetary arrangements gave the United States government far more influence over the international monetary and financial relations of the world than it had enjoyed under the Bretton Woods system. It could freely decide the price of the dollar. And states would become increasingly dependent upon developments in Anglo-American financial markets for managing their international monetary relations. And trends in these financial markets could be shifted by the actions (and words) of the US public authorities, in the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Board (the US Central Bank).”[66] This new system is referred to as the Dollar-Wall Street Regime (DWSR), as it is dependent upon the US dollar and the key actors on Wall Street.


The Federal Reserve’s response to the initial 1973-74 oil price shock was to keep interest rates low, which led to inflation and a devalued dollar. It’s also what allowed and encouraged banks to lend massive amounts to developing countries, often lending more than their net worth. However, in 1979, with the second oil shock, the Federal Reserve changed policy, and the true nature of the original oil crisis, petrodollar recycling and loans became apparent.

The Rise of Neo-Liberalism

In the early 1970s, the government of Chile was led by a leftist socialist-leaning politician named Salvador Allende, who was considering undertaking a program of nationalization of industries, which would significantly affect US business interests in the country. David Rockefeller expressed his view on the issue in his book, Memoirs, when he said that actions taken by Chile’s new government “severely restricted the operations of foreign corporations,” and he continued, saying, “I was so concerned about the situation that I met with Secretary of State William P. Rogers and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger.”[67]


As author Peter Dale Scott analyzed in his book, The Road to 9/11, David Rockefeller played a pivotal role in the events in Chile. After a failed attempt at trying to solve the ‘situation’ by sending David’s brother Nelson Rockefeller, the Governor of New York, down to Latin America, David Rockefeller attempted a larger operation. David Rockefeller told the story of how his friend Agustin (Doonie) Edwards, the publisher of El Mercurio, had warned David that if Allende won the election, Chile would “become another Cuba, a satellite of the Soviet Union.” David then put Doonie “in touch with Henry Kissinger.”[68]


In the same month that Kissinger met with Edwards, the National Security Council (of which Kissinger held the top post) authorized CIA “spoiling operations” to prevent the election of Allende. David Rockefeller had known Doonie Edwards from the Business Group for Latin America (BGLA), which was founded by Rockefeller in 1963, later to be named the Council of the Americas. Rockefeller founded it initially, in cooperation with the US government, “as cover for [CIA’s] Latin American operations.” The US Assistant Secretary of State for Latin American Affairs at the time was Charles Meyer, formerly with Rockefeller’s BGLA, who said that he was chosen for his position at the State Department “by David Rockefeller.” When Allende was elected on September 4, 1970, Doonie Edwards left Chile for the US, where Rockefeller helped him “get established” and the CEO of PepsiCo, Donald Kendall, gave him a job as a Vice President. Ten days later, Donald Kendall met with Richard Nixon, and the next day, Nixon, Kissinger, Kendall and Edwards had breakfast together. Later that day, Kissinger arranged a meeting between Edwards and CIA director, Richard Helms. Helms met with both Edwards and Kendall, who asked the CIA to intervene. Later that day, Nixon told Helms and Kissinger to “move against Allende.”[69]


However, before Edwards met with the CIA director, Henry Kissinger had met privately with “David Rockefeller, chairman of the Chase Manhattan Bank, which had interests in Chile that were more extensive than even Pepsi-Cola’s.” Rockefeller even allowed the CIA to use his bank for “anti-Allende Chilean operations.”[70] After Allende came to power, “commercial banks, including Chase Manhattan, Chemical, First National City, Manufacturers Hanover, and Morgan Guaranty, cancelled credits to Chile,” and the “World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Agency for International Development, and the Export-Import Bank either cut programs in Chile or cancelled credits.” However, “military aid to Chile, which has always been substantial, doubled in the 1970-1974 period as compared to the previous four years.”[71]


On September 11, 1973, General Augusto Pinochet orchestrated a coup d’état, with the aid and participation of the CIA, against the Allende government of Chile, overthrowing it and installing Pinochet as dictator. The next day, an economic plan for the country was on the desks of “the General Officers of the Armed Forces who performed government duties.” The plan entailed “privatization, deregulation and cuts to social spending,” written up by “U.S.-trained economists.”[72] These were the essential concepts in neoliberal thought, which, through the oil crises of the 1970s, would be forced upon the developing world through the World Bank and IMF.


In essence, Chile was the neo-liberal Petri-dish experiment. This was to expand drastically and become the very substance of the international economic order.

Globalization: A Liberal-Mercantilist Economic Order?

Neo-Liberals Take the Forefront

In 1971, Jimmy Carter, a somewhat obscure governor from Georgia had started to have meetings with David Rockefeller. They became connected due to Carter’s support from the Atlanta corporate elite, who had extensive ties to the Rockefellers. So in 1973, when David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski were picking people to join the Trilateral Commission, Carter was selected for membership. Carter thus attended every meeting, and even paid for his trip to the 1976 meeting in Japan with his campaign funds, as he was running for president at the time. Brzezinski was Carter’s closest adviser, writing Carter’s major campaign speeches.[73]


When Jimmy Carter became President, he appointed over two-dozen members of the Trilateral Commission to key positions in his cabinet, among them, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who became National Security Adviser; Samuel P. Huntington, Coordinator of National Security and Deputy to Brzezinski; Harold Brown, Secretary of Defense; Warren Christopher, Deputy Secretary of State; Walter Mondale, Vice President; Cyrus Vance, Secretary of State; and in 1979, he appointed David Rockefeller’s friend, Paul Volcker, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.[74]


In 1979, the Iranian Revolution spurred another massive increase in the price of oil. The Western nations, particularly the United States, had put a freeze on Iranian assets, “effectively restricting the access of Iran to the global oil market, the Iranian assets freeze became a major factor in the huge oil price increases of 1979 and 1981.”[75] Added to this, in 1979, British Petroleum cancelled major oil contracts for oil supply, which along with cancellations taken by Royal Dutch Shell, drove the price of oil up higher.[76]


However, in 1979, the Federal Reserve, now the lynch-pin of the international monetary system, which was awash in petro-dollars (US dollars) as a result of the 1973 oil crisis, decided to take a different action from the one it had taken earlier. In August of 1979, “on the advice of David Rockefeller and other influential voices of the Wall Street banking establishment, President Carter appointed Paul A. Volcker, the man who, back in August 1971, had been a key architect of the policy of taking the dollar off the gold standard, to head the Federal Reserve.”[77]


Volcker got his start as a staff economist at the New York Federal Reserve Bank in the early 50s. After five years there, “David Rockefeller’s Chase Bank lured him away.”[78] So in 1957, Volcker went to work at Chase, where Rockefeller “recruited him as his special assistant on a congressional commission on money and credit in America and for help, later, on an advisory commission to the Treasury Department.”[79] In the early 60s, Volcker went to work in the Treasury Department, and returned to Chase in 1965 “as an aide to Rockefeller, this time as vice president dealing with international business.” With Nixon entering the White House, Volcker got the third highest job in the Treasury Department. This put him at the center of the decision making process behind the dissolution of the Bretton Woods agreement.[80] In 1973, Volcker became a member of Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission. In 1975, he got the job as President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, the most powerful of the 12 branches of the Fed.


In 1979, Carter gave the job of Treasury Secretary to Arthur Miller, who had been Chairman of the Fed. This left an opening at the Fed, which was initially offered by Carter to David Rockefeller, who declined, and then to A.W. Clausen, Chairman of Bank of America, who also declined. Carter repeatedly tried to get Rockefeller to accept, and ultimately Rockefeller recommended Volcker for the job.[81] Volcker became Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, and immediately took drastic action to fight inflation by radically increasing interest rates.


The world was taken by shock. This was not a policy that would only be felt in the US with a recession, but was to send shock waves around the world, devastating the Third World debtor nations. This was likely the ultimate aim of the 1970s oil shocks and the 1979 Federal Reserve shock therapy. With the raising of interest rates, the cost of international money also rose. Thus, the interest rates on international loans made throughout the 1970s rose from 2% in the 1970s to 18% in the 1980s, dramatically increasing the interest charges on loans to developing countries.[82]


In the developing world, states that had to import oil faced enormous bills to cover their debts, and even oil producing countries, such as Mexico, faced huge problems as they had borrowed heavily in order to industrialize, and then suffered when oil prices fell again as the recession occurring in the developed states reduced demand. Thus, in 1982, Mexico declared that it could no longer pay its debt, meaning that, “they could no longer cover the cost of interest payments, much less hope to repay the debt.” The result was the bursting of the debt bubble. Banks then halted their loans to Mexico, and “Before long it was evident that states such as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, and many sub-Saharan African countries were in equally difficult financial positions.”[83]


The IMF and World Bank entered the scene newly refurnished with a whole new outlook and policy program designed just in time for the arrival of the debt crisis. The IMF “negotiated standby loans with debtors offering temporary assistance to states in need. In return for the loans states agreed to undertake structural adjustment programs (SAPs). These programs entailed the liberalization of economies to trade and foreign investment as well as the reduction of state subsidies and bureaucracies to balance national budgets.”[84] Thus, the neoliberal project of 1973 in Chile was expanded into the very functioning of the International Financial Institutions (IFIs).


Neoliberalism is “a particular organization of capitalism, which has evolved to protect capital(ism) and to reduce the power of labour. This is achieved by means of social, economic and political transformations imposed by internal forces as well as external pressure,” and it entails the “shameless use of foreign aid, debt relief and balance of payments support to promote the neoliberal programme, and diplomatic pressure, political unrest and military intervention when necessary.”[85] Further, “neoliberalism is part of a hegemonic project concentrating power and wealth in elite groups around the world, benefiting especially the financial interests within each country, and US capital internationally. Therefore, globalization and imperialism cannot be analysed separately from neoliberalism.”[86]


Joseph Stiglitz, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, wrote in his book, Globalization and its Discontents, “In the 1980s, the Bank went beyond just lending for projects (like roads and dams) to providing broad-based support, in the form of structural adjustment loans; but it did this only when the IMF gave its approval – and with that approval came IMF-imposed conditions on the country.”[87] As economist Michel Chossudovsky wrote, “Because countries were indebted, the Bretton Woods institutions were able to oblige them through the so-called ‘conditionalities’ attached to the loan agreements to appropriately redirect their macro-economic policy in accordance with the interests of the official and commercial creditors.”[88]


The nature of SAPs is such that the conditions imposed upon countries that sign onto these agreements include: lowering budget deficits, devaluing the currency, limiting government borrowing from the central bank, liberalizing foreign trade, reducing public sector wages, price liberalization, deregulation and altering interest rates.[89] For reducing budget deficits, “precise ‘ceilings’ are placed on all categories of expenditure; the state is no longer permitted to mobilize its own resources for the building of public infrastructure, roads, or hospitals, etc.”[90]


Joseph Stiglitz wrote that, “the IMF staff monitored progress, not just on the relevant indicators for sound macromanagement – inflation, growth, and unemployment – but on intermediate variables, such as the money supply,” and that “In some cases the agreements stipulated what laws the country’s Parliament would have to pass to meet IMF requirements or ‘targets’ – and by when.”[91] Further, “The conditions went beyond economics into areas that properly belong in the realm of politics,” and that “the way conditionality was imposed made the conditions politically unsustainable; when a new government came into power, they would be abandoned. Such conditions were seen as the intrusion by the new colonial power on the country’s own sovereignty.”[92]


“The phrase ‘Washington Consensus’ was coined to capture the agreement upon economic policy that was shared between the two major international financial institutions in Washington (IMF and World Bank) and the US government itself. This consensus stipulated that the best path to economic development was through financial and trade liberalization and that international institutions should persuade countries to adopt such measures as quickly as possible.”[93] The debt crisis provided the perfect opportunity to quickly impose these conditions upon countries that were not in a position to negotiate and with no time to spare, desperately in need of loans. Without the debt crisis, such policies may have been subject to greater scrutiny, and with a case-by-case analysis of countries adopting SAPs, the world would become quickly aware of their dangerous implications. The debt crisis was absolutely necessary in implementing the SAPs on an international scale in a short amount of time.


The effect became quite clear, as the result “of these policies on the population of developing countries was devastating. The 1980s is known as the ‘lost decade’ of development. Many developing countries’ economies were smaller and poorer in 1990 than in 1980. Over the 1980s and 1990s, debt in many developing countries was so great that governments had few resources to spend on social services and development.”[94] With the debt crisis, countries in the developing world were “[s]tarved of international finance, [and] states had little choice but to open their economies to foreign investors and trade.”[95] The “Third World” was recaptured in the cold grasp of economic colonialism under the auspices of neo-liberal economic theory.

A Return to Statist Theory

Since the 1970s, mercantilist thought had re-emerged in mainstream political-economic theory. Under various names such as neo-mercantilism, economic nationalism or statism, they hold as vital the centrality of the state in the global political economy. Much “Globalization” literature puts an emphasis on the “decline of the state” in the face of an integrated international economic order, where borders are made illusory. However, statist theory at least helps us understand that the state is still a vital factor within the global political economy, even in the midst of a neo-liberal economic order.


Within the neo-liberal economic order, it was the powerful western (primarily US and Western European) states that imposed neo-mercantilist or statist policies in order to protect and promote their interests within the global political economy. Some of these methods were revolved around policy tools such as export subsidies, imposed to lower the price of goods, which would make them more attractive to importers, giving that particular nation an advantage over the competition.


For example, the US has enormous agriculture export subsidies, which make US agriculture and grain an easily affordable, attractive and accessible commodity for importing nations. Countries of the global south (the Lesser-Developed Countries, LDCs), subject to neo-liberal policies imposed upon them by the World Bank and IMF were forced to open their economies up to foreign capital. The World Bank would bring in heavily subsidized US grain to these poor nations under the guise of “food aid,” which would have the affect of destabilizing the nation’s agriculture market, as the heavily subsidized US grains would be cheaper than local produce, putting farmers out of business. Most LDCs are predominantly rural based, so when the farming sector is devastated, so too is the entire nation. They plunge into economic crisis and even famine.


With the statist approach, theorists examine how the state is still relevant in shaping economic outcomes and still remains a powerful entity in the international arena. One theorist who is prominent within the statist school is Robert Gilpin. Gilpin, a professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton, is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In his book, Global Political Economy, Gilpin postulated that multinational corporations were an invention of the United States, and indeed an “American phenomenon” upon which European and Asian states responded by internationalizing their own firms. In this sense, his theory postulated to a return to the competitive nature of mercantilist economic theory, in which one state gains at the expense of another. He also addresses the nature of the international economy, in that both historically and presently, there was a single state acting as the main enforcer and manager of the global economy. Historically, it was Britain, and presently, it was the United States.


One cannot deny the significance of the state in the global political economy, as it has been, and still remains very relevant. The events of 1973 are exemplary of this, however, more must be examined in order to better understand the situation. Though states are still prominent actors, it is vital to address in whose interest they act. Mercantilist and statist theorists tend to focus on the concept that states act in their own selfish interest, for the benefit of the state, both politically and economically. However, this is somewhat linear and diversionary, as it does not address the precise structure of the state economy, specifically in terms of its monetary and central banking system.


States, most especially the large hegemonic ones, such as the United States and Great Britain, are controlled by the international central banking system, working through secret agreements at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and operating through national central banks (such as the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve). The state is thus owned by an international banking cartel, and though the state acts in such a way that proves its continual relevance in the global economy, it acts so not in terms of self-interest for the state itself, but for the powerful interests that control that state. The same international banking cartel that controls the United States today previously controlled Great Britain and held it up as the international hegemon. When the British order faded, and was replaced by the United States, the US ran the global economy. However, the same interests are served. States will be used and discarded at will by the international banking cartel; they are simply tools.


In this sense, interdependence theory, which presumes the decline of the state in international affairs, fails to acknowledge the role of the state in promoting and undertaking the process of interdependence. The decline of the nation-state is a state-driven process, and is a process that leads to a rise of the continental state and the global state. States, are still very relevant, but both liberal and mercantilist theorists, while helpful in understanding the concepts behind the global economy, lay the theoretical groundwork for a political economic agenda being undertaken by powerful interests. Like Robert Cox said, “Theory is always for someone and for some purpose.”

Hegemonic-Stability Theory

In his book, Global Political Economy, Gilpin explained that, “In time, if unchecked, the integration of an economy into the world economy, the intensifying pressures of foreign competition, and the necessity to be efficient in order to survive economically could undermine the independence of a society and force it to adopt new values and forms of social organization. Fear that economic globalization and the integration of national markets are destroying or could destroy the political, economic, and cultural autonomy of national societies has become widespread.”[96]


However, Gilpin explains that the “Creation of effective international regimes and solutions to the compliance problem require both strong international leadership and an effective international governance structure.” Yet, he explains, “Regimes in themselves cannot provide governance structure because they lack the most critical component of governance – the power to enforce compliance. Regimes must rest instead on a political base established through leadership and cooperation.”[97] This is where we see the emergence of Hegemonic Stability Theory.


Gilpin explains that, “The theory of hegemonic stability posits that the leader or hegemon facilitates international cooperation and prevents defection from the rules of the regime through use of side payments (bribes), sanctions, and/or other means, but can seldom, if ever, coerce reluctant states to obey the rules of a liberal international economic order.” As he explained, “The American hegemon did indeed play a crucial role in establishing and managing the world economy following World War II.”[98]


The roots of Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) lie within both liberal and statist theory, as it is representative of a crossover theory that cannot be so easily placed in either category. The main concept champions the liberal notion of the open international economic system, guided by liberal principles of open-markets and free trade, while bringing in the statist concept of a single hegemonic state representing the concentration of political and economic power, as it is the enforcer of the liberal international economy.


The more liberal-leaning theorists of HST argue that a liberal economic order requires a strong, hegemonic state to maintain the smooth functioning of the international economy. One thing this state must do is maintain the international monetary system, as Britain did under the gold standard and the United States did under the Dollar-Wall Street Regime, following the end of the Bretton-Woods dollar-gold link.

Regime Theory


Regime Theory is another crossover theory between liberal and mercantilist theorists. Its rise was primarily in reaction to the emergence of Hegemonic Stability Theory, in order to address the concern of a perceived decline in the power of the US. This was due to the rise of new economic powers in the 1970s, and another major purveyor of this theory was Robert Keohane. They needed to address how the international order could be maintained as the hegemonic power declined. The answer was in the building of international organizations to manage the international regime.


In this sense, Regime Theory has identified an important aspect of the global political economy, in that though states have upheld the international order in the past, never before has there been such an undertaking to institutionalize the authority over the international order through international organizations. These organizations, such as the World Bank, IMF, UN, and WTO, though still controlled and influenced by states, predominantly the international hegemon, the United States, represent a changing direction of internationalization and transnationalism. Regime Theorists tend to justify the formation of a more transnational apparatus of power, beyond just a single hegemonic state, into a more internationalized structure of authority.

Notes

[1] CBC, Informal forum or global conspiracy? CBC News Online: June 13, 2006: http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/bilderberg-group/

[2] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. (South End Press: 1980), 161-171

[3] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. (South End Press: 1980), 161-162

[4] CFR, The First Transformation. CFR History: http://www.cfr.org/about/history/cfr/first_transformation.html

[5] Glen McGregor, Secretive power brokers meeting coming to Ottawa? Ottawa Citizen: May 24, 2006: http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=ff614eb8-02cc-41a3-a42d-30642def1421&k=62840

[6] William F. Jasper, Rogues’ gallery of EU founders. The New American: July 12, 2004: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JZS/is_14_20/ai_n25093084/pg_1?tag=artBody;col1

[7] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Euro-federalists financed by US spy chiefs. The Telegraph: June 19, 2001: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1356047/Euro-federalists-financed-by-US-spy-chiefs.html

[8] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Euro-federalists financed by US spy chiefs. The Telegraph: June 19, 2001: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1356047/Euro-federalists-financed-by-US-spy-chiefs.html

[9] Bilderberg Group, GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN CONFERENCE. The Bilderberg Group: September 23-25, 1955, page 7:

http://wikileaks.org/leak/bilderberg-meetings-report-1955.pdf

[10] Who are these Bilderbergers and what do they do? The Sunday Herald: May 30, 1999: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4156/is_19990530/ai_n13939252

[11] Andrew Rettman, ‘Jury’s out’ on future of Europe, EU doyen says. EUobserver: March 16, 2009: http://euobserver.com/9/27778

[12] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: page 110

[13] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: page 107

[14] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: pages 107-108

[15] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: page 108

[16] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: page 108

[17] George T. Crane, Abla Amawi, The Theoretical evolution of international political economy. Oxford University Press US, 1997: pages 50-51

[18] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: page 65

[19] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 215

[20] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: pages 66-67

[21] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: page 67

[22] C. Fred Bergsten, The New Economics and US Foreign Policy. Foreign Affairs: January, 1972: page 199

[23] Richard H. Ullman, Trilateralism: “Partnership” For What? Foreign Affairs: October, 1976: pages 3-4

[24] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: pages 76-78

[25] Richard H. Ullman, Trilateralism: “Partnership” For What? Foreign Affairs: October, 1976: page 3

[26] Richard H. Ullman, Trilateralism: “Partnership” For What? Foreign Affairs: October, 1976: page 5

[27] Congressional Research Service, TRILATERAL COMMISSION. The Library of Congress: pages 13-14: http://www.scribd.com/doc/5014337/Trilateral-Commission

[28] CFR, Joseph S. Nye, Jr.. Board of Directors: http://www.cfr.org/bios/1330/joseph_s_nye_jr.html

[29] Annual Report, The Council on Foreign Relations. Historical Roster of Directors and Officers, 2008: page 78

[30] Peter Gowan, The Globalization Gamble: The Dollar-Wall Street Regime and its Consequences. Page 19-20

[31] William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. (London: Pluto Press, 2004), 130-132

[32] William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. (London: Pluto Press, 2004), 286-287, 134

[33] CFR, “X” Leads the Way. CFR History: http://www.cfr.org/about/history/cfr/x_leads.html

[34] Robert Dallek, The Kissinger Presidency. Vanity Fair: May 2007: http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/kissinger200705

[35] Ibid.

[36] David Stout, William P. Rogers, Who Served as Nixon’s Secretary of State, Is Dead at 87. The New York Times: January 4, 2001: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B02E5D6113BF937A35752C0A9679C8B63

[37] TC, Tributes to David Rockefeller, Founder and Honorary Chairman. The Trilateral Commission: December 1, 1998: http://www.trilateral.org/nagp/regmtgs/98/1201tribs.htm

[38] John Loftus and Mark Aarons, The Secret War Against the Jews: How Western Espionage Betrayed the Jewish People. St. Martin’s Griffin: 1994: pages 304-307

[39] John Loftus and Mark Aarons, The Secret War Against the Jews: How Western Espionage Betrayed the Jewish People. St. Martin’s Griffin: 1994: pages 308-310

[40] John Loftus and Mark Aarons, The Secret War Against the Jews: How Western Espionage Betrayed the Jewish People. St. Martin’s Griffin: 1994: pages 310-311

[41] Robert Dallek, The Kissinger Presidency. Vanity Fair: May 2007: http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/kissinger200705

[42] John Loftus and Mark Aarons, The Secret War Against the Jews: How Western Espionage Betrayed the Jewish People. St. Martin’s Griffin: 1994: pages 312-313

[43] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. London: Pluto Press, 2004: pages 130-132

[44] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. London: Pluto Press, 2004: pages 136-137

[45] The Observer, Saudi dove in the oil slick. The Guardian: January 14, 2001: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2001/jan/14/globalrecession.oilandpetrol

[46] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: page 24

[47] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: pages 31-33

[48] IPC, James Akins. Iran Policy Committee: Scholars and Fellows: http://www.iranpolicy.org/scholarsandfellows.php#1

[49] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: pages 35-36

[50] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: pages 37-38

[51] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: page 44

[52] Time, The Cast of Analysts. Time Magazine: March 12, 1979: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,948424,00.html

[53] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: page 48

[54] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: pages 50-51

[55] V.H. Oppenheim, Why Oil Prices Go Up (1) The Past: We Pushed Them. Foreign Policy: No. 25, Winter, 1976-1977: page 53

[56] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. London: Pluto Press, 2004: page 137

[57] The Observer, Saudi dove in the oil slick. The Guardian: January 14, 2001: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2001/jan/14/globalrecession.oilandpetrol

[58] Peter Gowan, The Globalization Gamble: The Dollar-Wall Street Regime and its Consequences: marxsite.com/Gowan_DollarWallstreetRegime.pdf: page 10

[59] Dharam Ghai, ed., The IMF and the South: The Social Impact of Crisis and Adjustment (London: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 1991), 81

[60] Dharam Ghai, ed., The IMF and the South: The Social Impact of Crisis and Adjustment (London: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 1991), 82

[61] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 223

[62] Gisela Bolte, et. al., Jumbo Loans, Jumbo Risks. Time Magazine: December 3, 1984: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,923771,00.html

[63] Allen B. Frankel and Paul B. Morgan, A Primer on the Japanese Banking System. Board of Governors of the Federal reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers: Number 419, December 1991: page 3

[64] A. W. Mullineux, International Banking and Financial Systems: A Comparison. Springer, 1987: page 63

[65] Robert K. Schaeffer, Understanding Globalization: The Social Consequences of Political, Economic, and Environmental Change. Rowman & Littlefield, 2005: page 82

[66] Peter Gowan, The Globalization Gamble: The Dollar-Wall Street Regime and its Consequences: marxsite.com/Gowan_DollarWallstreetRegime.pdf: page 12

[67] David Rockefeller, Memoirs. New York: Random House: 2002: Page 431

[68] Peter Dale Scott, The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America. University of California Press: 2007: page 39-40

[69] Peter Dale Scott, The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America. University of California Press: 2007: page 41

[70] Peter Dale Scott, The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America. University of California Press: 2007: pages 40-41

[71] Daniel Brandt, U.S. Responsibility for the Coup in Chile. Public Information Research: November 28, 1998: http://www.namebase.org/chile.html

[72] Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism. Macmillan: 2007: page 77

[73] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: pages 201-203

[74] Holly Sklar, ed., Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. South End Press: 1980: pages 91-92

[75] Peter Dale Scott, The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America. University of California Press: 2007: page 88

[76] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. London: Pluto Press, 2004: page 173

[77] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. London: Pluto Press, 2004: page 174

[78] Joseph B. Treaster, Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend. John Wiley and Sons, 2004: page 36

[79] Joseph B. Treaster, Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend. John Wiley and Sons, 2004: page 37

[80] Joseph B. Treaster, Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend. John Wiley and Sons, 2004: page 38

[81] Joseph B. Treaster, Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend. John Wiley and Sons, 2004: pages 57-60

[82] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 223

[83] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 224

[84] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 224

[85] A. Paloni and M. Zonardi, eds., Neoliberalism: A Critical Introduction. London: Pluto, 2005: page 3

[86] A. Paloni and M. Zonardi, eds., Neoliberalism: A Critical Introduction. London: Pluto, 2005: page 1

[87] Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents. New York: Norton, 2003: page 14

[88] Michel Chossudovsky, The Globalization of Poverty and the New World Order, 2nd ed. Quebec: Global Research, 2003: page 35

[89] Marc Williams, International Economic Organizations and the Third World. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1994: page 85

[90] Michel Chossudovsky, The Globalization of Poverty and the New World Order, 2nd ed. Quebec: Global Research, 2003: page 52

[91] Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents. New York: Norton, 2003: pages 43-44

[92] Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents. New York: Norton, 2003: pages 44-46

[93] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 224

[94] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 224

[95] Robert O’Brien and Marc Williams, Global Political Economy: Evolution and Dynamics, 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: 2007: page 225

[96] Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton University Press, 2001: page 81

[97] Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton University Press, 2001: page 97

[98] Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton University Press, 2001: pages 97-98

Andrew Gavin Marshall is a Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). He is currently studying Political Economy and History at Simon Fraser University.

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Business Headlines

Target Same Store Sales Fall More Than Expected

MINNEAPOLIS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Target Corporation (NYSE:TGTNews) today reported that its net retail sales for the four weeks ended August 1, 2009 were $4,418 million, a decrease of 3.2 percent from $4,566 million for the four weeks ended August 2, 2008. On this same basis, July comparable-store sales decreased 6.5 percent.

“July comparable-store sales performance was in line with our expectation for the month,” said Gregg Steinhafel, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Target Corporation. “While our sales remain challenging, we continue to experience favorable gross margin performance within categories and disciplined expense control in our retail segment, as well as modestly improving risk trends in our credit card segment.”

Sales Total Sales

Comparable Stores % Change

(millions)

% Change

This Year

Last Year

July $4,418 (3.2) (6.5) (1.2)
Quarter-to-date $14,567 (2.7) (6.2) (0.4)
Year-to-date $28,928 (1.2) (5.0) (0.6)

Target’s current sales disclosure practice includes a sales recording on the day of the monthly sales release. Consistent with this practice, a new message was recorded earlier today. The next sales recording is expected to be issued on Thursday, September 3, 2009. These recordings may be accessed by calling 612-761-6500.

Target Corporation’s retail segment includes large general merchandise and food discount stores and Target.com, a fully integrated on-line business. In addition, the company operates a credit card segment that offers branded proprietary and Visa credit card products. The company currently operates 1,719 Target stores in 49 states.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Asian Markets Rise On Confidence of Recovery

By Shani Raja

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days as Alumina Ltd. posted a smaller-than-estimated underlying loss and Australian employers unexpectedly added jobs, boosting confidence the global economy is recovering.

Alumina, partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, surged 9.8 percent in Sydney. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., Japan’s biggest phone operator, climbed 2.5 percent after saying profit at its fixed- line units rose. Chinese stocks declined, led by Citic Securities Co.’s 3.8 percent drop in Shanghai, on concern the nation’s central bank may rein in lending.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 112.54 as of 7:52 p.m. in Tokyo, with five stocks advancing for every four that declined. The measure had fallen 1 percent in the previous two days. The gauge has climbed 59 percent from a five-year low on March 9 on speculation the global economy is recovering.

“The market is ostensibly in a bit of a sweet spot,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The momentum in economic fundamentals is improving in terms of global growth. We’ll need to see continued upgrades to earnings estimates to ensure the market continues its momentum higher.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3 percent. Elpida Memory Inc. climbed 7.2 percent in Tokyo after JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded the stock. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.5 percent as builder Leighton Holdings Ltd. gained 3.4 percent after predicting a rebound in Asian demand for resources.

Nikon, Cathay Pacific

Among stocks that fell today, Nikon Corp., which makes equipment used to produce semiconductors, tumbled 10 percent in Tokyo after forecasting a record loss. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest carrier, dropped 3.6 percent after its chief executive said the global recession might require “fundamental changes” to its business model.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The gauge dropped 0.3 percent yesterday after data from ADP Employer Services showed American businesses cut more workers from pay rolls last month than economists estimated. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses also declined in July.

Alumina rose 9.8 percent to A$1.795. The company reported an underlying loss of A$15 million ($12.6 million) in the six months ended June 30, beating the A$22 million median estimate of three analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

“It appears that the worst is over,” said Ben Potter, an analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne. “The headline numbers were certainly stronger than expected.”

Metals Prices

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, gained 1.7 percent to A$38.79 after a gauge of six metals in London climbed 3.3 percent yesterday to a level not seen since Sept. 30. Aluminum prices jumped 4 percent, while copper added 2.5 percent. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, rose 1.9 percent to A$61.90.

NTT climbed 2.5 percent to 4,070 yen. The company said yesterday operating profits at its fixed-line units NTT East Corp. and NTT West Corp. grew at least 76 percent in the three months to June 30. The results of these subsidiaries tend to influence NTT’s share price, Hitoshi Hayakawa, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote in a report yesterday.

Elpida, Japan’s largest maker of computer-memory chips, gained 7.2 percent to 1,195 yen after JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “neutral” on signs that earnings will “break even” in the December quarter.

Rising Valuations

Thirty-four percent of the 389 companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index that have reported quarterly results so far have beaten analysts’ profit estimates, while 18 percent have missed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg……


European Markets Rise on Earnings & BoE Comments

By Daniela Silberstein

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Stocks in Europe and Asia rose, led by financial shares as KBC Group NV reported a surprise profit, Aviva Plc posted results that beat estimates and an industry group predicted U.K. house prices will increase this year.

KBC, Belgium’s third-largest bank by assets, surged 16 percent while Aviva, the U.K.’s second-biggest insurer by market value, gained 6.3 percent. Unilever, the world’s second-largest consumer-goods maker, added 5.7 percent in Amsterdam after beating analysts’ estimates for western European sales growth.

The MSCI World Index advanced for the fifth time in six days, climbing 0.3 percent to 1,064.90 at 12:05 p.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed countries has surged 55 percent since March 9 as companies from GlaxoSmithKline Plc to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported better-than-estimated earnings.

“The earnings season was pretty impressive and it’s firing this rally were seeing,” Marc-Alexander Kniess, a senior portfolio manager at DWS Investment GmbH in Frankfurt, which has $288 billion under management, told Bloomberg Television. “Interest rates are at low levels so therefore liquidity is there and that should help spark economic recovery.”

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.8 percent today. The regional measure is valued at 39.9 times the profits of its companies, the highest level since September 2003, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6 percent as employers in Australia unexpectedly added jobs and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. said earnings at its fixed-line units increased.

U.S. Futures

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fluctuated between gains and losses before a weekly report on initial jobless claims. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities yesterday fell from a nine-month high after data on job losses and service industries were worse than economists estimated.

The Bank of England increased its bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($84 billion) to 175 billion pounds and kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

U.K. house prices will increase in 2009, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said, reversing an earlier prediction for a drop of as much as 15 percent. The average price of a home will be “slightly higher” in the fourth quarter of 2009 than it was in the same period last year, RICS said in a statement in London today.

The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at a record low as it tries to get credit flowing again to strengthen an economy that may return to growth this quarter, economists said. The ECB announces its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later.

German Factory Orders

German factory orders posted their biggest increase in two years in June, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today, the latest sign that Europe’s largest economy is emerging from recession.

KBC surged 16 percent to 19 euros. The recipient of 7 billion euros ($10.1 billion) in Belgian bank-rescue funds reported a surprise profit as narrowing credit spreads boosted the value of its collateralized debt obligations.

Aviva increased 6.3 percent to 378.7 pence. The U.K.’s second-biggest insurer by market value swung to a first-half profit as margins on the sale of life insurance policies increased. Net income was 675 million pounds ($1.1 billion), compared with a year-earlier loss of 97 million pounds. Operating profit, measured on a market-consistent embedded value basis, rose to 1.69 billion pounds, exceeding analyst estimates.

Hannover Re

Hannover Re climbed 4.6 percent to 29.27 euros. Germany’s second-biggest reinsurer said second-quarter net income doubled, beating estimates as investment income increased.

Zurich Financial Services AG added 2.3 percent to 220.9 Swiss francs. Switzerland’s largest insurer is confident about achieving its mid-term profit goals after beating a 16 percent target for business operating profit return on equity in the first half, Chief Financial Officer Dieter Wemmer said. The company reported a 29 percent decline in second-quarter profit because of lower general insurance earnings and investment losses…..


Oil Trades Narrowly @ $71


By ALEX KENNEDY
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SINGAPORE (AP) – Oil prices fell to near $71 a barrel Thursday in Asia as investors eyed rising U.S. crude inventories and signs of a weak economy.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was down 41 cents to $71.56 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, the contract gained 55 cents to settle at $71.97.

Crude has traded near $71 a barrel for the last couple days after shooting up from below $62 last week as investors try to gauge whether a weak U.S. economy justifies a further rally.

The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said crude inventories increased by nearly 2 million barrels last week, adding to the 5 million barrels put into storage the previous week.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that the services sector contracted more sharply than expected in July. The ISM showed that retailers, financial services, transportation and health care sectors, which account for 80 percent of U.S. economic activity, fell for a tenth straight month.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 0.31 cents to $2.054 a gallon and heating oil dropped 2.1 cents to $1.9548. Natural gas for August delivery rose 0.4 cents to $4.046 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent prices fell 39 cents to $75.12 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.


Retailers Report Sluggish Sales

NEW YORK (AP) – Retailers are reporting sluggish sales for July as shoppers’ worries about jobs escalate, raising concern about the health of the back-to-school shopping season.

As merchants report their sales figures Thursday, mall-based chains continue to be hit hardest as consumers focus on necessities. Among the disappointments are Stage Stores Inc. and teen retailer Wet Seal Inc. Stage Stores’ same-store sales fell 11.9 percent and Wet Seal 12.1 percent.

Warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp.’s results are slightly below analysts’ estimates. Its same-store sales dropped 7 percent.

The sales figures are based on same-store sales or sales at stores opened at least a year. Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailers’ health.



BoE Leaves Rates Unchanged & Extends Quantitative Easing

By Jennifer Ryan

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of England increased its bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($84 billion), saying the U.K.’s economic recession is deeper than policy makers expected.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, kept the key interest rate at 0.5 percent and said it will increase its purchase program to 175 billion pounds. Twenty-three of 44 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted an expansion of the plan, and the rest saw no further purchases.

“In the United Kingdom, the recession appears to have been deeper than previously thought,” the central bank said in a statement in London today. “While some recovery in output growth is in prospect, the margin of spare capacity in the economy is likely to continue to grow for some while yet, bearing down on inflation in the medium term.”

The bank’s move suggests policy makers, who based the decision on quarterly forecasts prepared this month, assessed that their stimulus plan and record low interest rates weren’t enough to quell the threat of deflation. While services grew at the fastest pace in 1 1/2 years in July, unemployment is rising and banks have kept restricting access to credit.

“There’s evidence that the economy has turned the corner, but it’s early days yet and it’s still fragile,” said James Shugg, an economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in London. “The bank doesn’t want to take away the support that’s helped the recovery get under way.”

Market Reaction

Bond yields plunged and the pound dropped after the Bank of England’s statement. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt fell 17 basis points to 3.65 percent and the pound declined as much as 0.9 percent to $1.6832.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling authorized the purchases, reflecting Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s concern that the economy remains fragile.

Brown said on July 22 that the bank’s so-called quantitative easing policy and interest-rate cuts have “made a difference.” He faces elections by June 2010, and his Labour Party trailed the Conservative opposition by 14 percentage points in a YouGov Plc opinion poll that ended July 30.

“I agree that an increase in the ceiling would provide the MPC with scope to vary the stance of monetary policy to meet the inflation target,” Darling wrote in a letter to the central bank.

Bank’s Forecasts

Further clues on the central bank’s next move and its assessment of the economy may follow on Aug. 12, when King presents the new forecasts prepared by his staff.

All 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the interest rate would stay at a record low today. The European Central Bank may keep its rate at 1 percent at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt today, all 52 economists in a separate survey said. The Federal Reserve has left its key rate at a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December……


German Factory Orders Rose The Most in 2 Years

By Christian Vits

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — German factory orders posted their biggest increase in two years in June, the latest sign that Europe’s largest economy is emerging from recession.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, jumped 4.5 percent from May, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the most since June 2007 and the fourth successive monthly gain. Economists expected an increase of 0.6 percent, the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. Orders were still 25.3 percent lower than a year earlier.

Today’s report adds to evidence that Germany is shaking off its worst economic slump since World War II as a global recovery fuels demand for exports. While the government has forecast the economy will contract by 6 percent this year, some economists predict a return to growth as soon as this quarter. Business confidence rose for a fourth month in July.

“The factory figures are impressive, the outlook is brightening,” said Arnd Schaefer, an economist at WestLB in Dusseldorf. “We expect mildly positive growth rates in the second half of this year.”

The increase in June was driven by an 8.3 percent surge in export orders, today’s report showed. Orders from other euro- area countries spiked 13.2 percent while those from outside the region advanced 4.8 percent, the ministry said. Domestic orders rose 0.2 percent.

Emerging Markets

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, said today its luxury Audi division boosted sales by 2.1 percent in July, a second consecutive increase, as it attracted a record number of buyers in China. Audi said on July 31 it’s likely to post a “significant” operating profit this year as emerging markets begin to revive.

Governments worldwide have announced about $2 trillion in economic stimulus programs to help rekindle economic growth. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, which faces a national election in September, is spending about 85 billion euros ($122 billion) to fight the recession, including tax breaks and a 2,500-euro payment for consumers who scrap their old car and buy a new one.

At the same time, the European Central Bank has slashed interest rates, flooded financial markets with cash and started buying 60 billion euros of covered bonds to free up credit and encourage banks to lend to companies and households.

Munich-based Allianz, Europe’s biggest insurer, on July 22 predicted the German economy will expand 2.3 percent in both the third and fourth quarters.

“Germany will profit from the global recovery,” said Sebastian Wanke, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. Still, “there’s a risk that we’ll face an economic backlash with negative growth when the car-scrapping premium ends.”


BoJ Expects Deflation Scenario Until 2011

By Mayumi Otsuma and Masahiro Hidaka

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan will probably forecast that declines in consumer prices will extend into 2011 even as the economy recovers, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The estimate would be included in policy makers’ first economic projections for the financial year ending March 2012, scheduled for release in October, said the people, who declined to be identified ahead of the report. Central bankers have already predicted prices will fall 1.3 percent in the current year and 1 percent in fiscal 2010.

Prospects for a third year of deflation make it likely Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues will keep interest rates near zero through next year, analysts said. It would also erode profits at companies such as Aeon Co., Japan’s second-largest retailer, which has been forced to offer discounts to attract consumers whose wages are tumbling.

“The Bank of Japan will hold the key rate at 0.1 percent at least through March 2011 to stop deflation from becoming deeply entrenched,” said Jun Ishii, chief fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The central bank will probably consider further policy-easing action” should the risk of spiraling deflation mount, he also said.

Worst Recession

Japan is beginning to emerge from its worst postwar recession as exports improve and manufacturers boost production to replenish inventories. The revival has yet to spread to consumers, who are facing record declines in paychecks and an unemployment rate that economists say will reach an unprecedented 5.8 percent early next year.

Deflation may escalate as households, whose spending accounts for more than half of the nation’s gross domestic product, delay purchases on the expectation that goods will get cheaper, restraining a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

The central bank cut the key overnight rate to 0.1 percent in December, and has since begun buying corporate debt from lenders and offering them unlimited loans backed by collateral to channel funds to companies. The policy board last month extended the credit steps by three months to Dec. 31; some analysts said they’ll need to extend them again.

“With little room left to trim the key rate, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to keep the current extraordinary policy measures, including the credit-easing programs, for a long time,” said Akio Makabe, an economics professor at Shinshu University in Matsumoto, central Japan.

Bond Yields

Subdued consumer prices have helped keep Japan’s debt yields from climbing even as the government enacted fiscal- stimulus measures. Benchmark 10-year bonds yielded 1.435 percent at 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo, down from the year’s high of 1.57 percent in June and an average of 1.47 percent the past decade.

Japan endured years of deflation earlier this decade, only defeating it in 2005. A central bank forecast signaling a return of the trend would come weeks after a new government takes office. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan leads the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in polls ahead of the Aug. 30 general election.

The central bank is bound by law to maintain price stability, and policy makers have indicated that inflation is steady within a range of zero to 2 percent. The prospect that prices will stay below that scope will force the central bank to keep the key rate unchanged at least through 2010, according to 10 of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Record Decline

Prices excluding fresh food, the central bank’s preferred gauge, slid a record 1.7 percent in June, in part because oil traded at about half of last year’s levels.

Central bank Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said last month that it will take “some time” before consumer prices return to the policy board’s range. He added that there is no need for the bank to implement additional policy-easing measures for now, with the risk of a deflationary spiral being low.

Retailers are discounting products in an effort to maintain sales amid the recession. Chiba-based Aeon in July started selling house-brand beer that’s 20 percent cheaper than the equivalent products of major breweries. The company, which last month reported its fourth net loss in five quarters, cut prices on more than 6,000 items in March as rivals including Seven & I Holdings Co. and Seiyu Ltd., a Wal-Mart Stores Inc. unit, also discounted products.

Retailers Cut Prices

“Retailers are slashing prices to appeal to households, which are tightening their purse strings in response to job losses and wage cuts,” said Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo.

Kono anticipates the Bank of Japan will in October forecast prices will fall about 1 percent in fiscal 2011 because a growing number of consumers and companies are expecting price declines.

A measure of the gap between supply and demand in Japan’s economy widened to a record in the three months ended March 31, according to the Cabinet Office.

“It’s inevitable that the Bank of Japan will forecast price declines for a third year,” given that slack in the economy has widened and growth will be subdued, said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “The central bank will continue to focus on the economy’s downside risks.”


CSCO Profits Slump & They Guide Lower on Gross Margins

Cisco Systems Inc. posted a 46% drop in quarterly profit as companies continued to pare spending on networking gear. But Chief Executive John Chambers said there are signs the economy likely reached a “tipping point” during the quarter, and stood by a pledge to return Cisco to double-digit growth.

Mr. Chambers aims to do that by continuing an expansion push that has seen the company move into more than two dozen new businesses, from consumer camcorders to giant TV screens for stadiums.

In order to manage these initiatives, Mr. Chambers has replaced Cisco’s top-down decision making with committees of executives from across the company. Some teams provide strategic advice and evaluate the progress of these projects. In total, Cisco now has 59 internal standing committees.

Digits

[Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers delivers a keynote address during the April, RSA Conference in San Francisco.] Getty Images

Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers delivers a keynote address during the April, RSA Conference in San Francisco.

Mr. Chambers said in a recent interview the new structure is necessary for the San Jose, Calif., company to avoid the declining growth rates often experienced by large businesses. By expanding into so many new businesses, Cisco can replicate the success of new products it has launched in the past, “just at a much larger scale,” he said.

But Mr. Chambers’s approach flies in the face of the management styles adopted by most companies of Cisco’s size, which typically try to streamline operations and focus more narrowly on priorities.

“Right now it’s chaos because there’s so much on everybody’s plate,” said Geoffrey Moore, a management consultant who has worked with Cisco.

In the quarter ended July 25, Cisco’s revenue dropped to $8.5 from $10.4 billion a year ago. Profit was $1.1 billion, or 19 cents a share, down from $2.01 billion, or 33 cents, a year ago.

“We have gone through the toughest economic time period we’ve seen in our lifetime,” Mr. Chambers said Wednesday during a call with analysts. But he struck a positive note, adding that orders grew sequentially during the quarter for the first time in a year.

Cisco’s largest business, the Internet switches that pass data between computers, declined 11% to $12 billion in its fiscal year.

In addition to the recession, Cisco faced increased competition from rival Hewlett-Packard Co. The company’s new management structure has at times slowed its response to rivals’ moves, according to people familiar with the matter.

In late 2007, for instance, H-P started promoting a warranty for its switches that provides free upgrades and support. Under Cisco’s new structure, a decision about how to respond to H-P’s offering was delayed as it worked its way through multiple committees, these people said. Cisco didn’t match H-P’s promotion until this April, and during that period Cisco’s market share fell.

A Cisco spokesman said changing the warranty was a complicated issue and that the new management structure allowed the company to get support from all parts of the company. He added Cisco expects to win back market share with some new products.

[Chart]

While none of Cisco’s new initiatives have reached $1 billion in revenue, several — such as its high-end video conferencing system — are growing rapidly. On Wednesday, Mr. Chambers said that almost all of the new businesses were “progressing well.”

Mr. Chambers said he will soon expand the number of new businesses Cisco is targeting to 50. Cisco will increase the number of people who participate in the committees from 750 senior employees to about 3,000.

The change has been felt by senior executives such as Keith Goodwin, who became one of the leaders on a new committee developing Cisco’s strategy for selling to small businesses.

“It clearly is a challenge” to manage everything, said Mr. Goodwin, who said he had to cut his travel in half to meet his committee duties, replacing customer meetings with videoconferences and phone calls.

Mr. Chambers said part of his goal is to make employees rethink how they work and what they work on. The new management structure “makes everyone uncomfortable, including the CEO,” he said.

Some observers say it is too soon to judge Cisco’s new structure. “Cisco is in the middle of something that isn’t yet completed,” said Rosabeth Kanter, a Harvard Business School professor. “Everything can look like a failure in the middle.”

Mr. Chambers has tweaked his system. In May, he told executives he didn’t want them to work on more than four or five committees after some complained they were overextended — although he still wants them spending in excess of 30% of their time on these committees.


Australia Bucks The Job Loss Trend

Australia on Thursday surprised economists who had forecast the country shed jobs in July by instead reporting a net gain of 32,200 positions, but the headline number appeared to cover deeper weakness.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of workers employed full-time actually fell by 16,000 from June, a sixth straight month of decline. The jobs gain came wholly from new part-time positions, a development reflected in a 0.4 per cent decline in the average number of hours worked.


Confusion Over Government Run Entities on a Flat Trading Day

We weren’t the only ones confused by yesterday’s bizarre rally in beaten-down companies like AIG (AIG), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE).There are a few different stories, some having to do with the new plan for the GSEs, or maybe the resignation of James Lockhart, or maybe a surprise profit in another beaten down lender.

Nobody has a good explanation.

NYT: The numbers were astounding, especially on a day when the broad market drifted lower. American International Group, synonymous with the financial crisis, jumped 63 — yes, 63 — percent in one day. The troubled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shot up 30 percent.

So on an otherwise slow financial news day, what drove this move? Wall Street analysts were groping for explanations. Some said investors who had bet against these stocks were rushing to buy and cover their short positions. Others pointed to trading in the options market, or speculated that high-frequency computer trading could have played a part.

Ah, this is good and important. High-frequency trading has officially joined the ranks of excuses analysts can give when they have nothing to say. It joins “profit-taking” and the “increasing risk appetite” as non-answer answers that are acceptable.



Cash For Clunkers May Add 0.25 -1% to GDP

The financial lunacy behind the latest government subsidized program is astounding.  The cash for clunkers program is expected to add as much as 0.5% to GDP next quarter.  While it is likely to contribute positively in the near-term the long-term ramifications aren’t quite as rosy.  Bloomberg reports:

“Cash for clunkers came at a very, very good time to jump-start the economy,” Mike DiGiovanni, sales analyst at Detroit-based General Motors Co., said at a teleconference. The so-called Car Allowance Rebate System, which provides credits of as much as $4,500 for the purchase of a new car when an older vehicle to be scrapped is handed over, ran through most of its initial $1 billion of funding within a week.

“If the cash-for-clunkers program is extended by the additional $2 billion that passes the Senate, it could boost third-quarter GDP by 0.5 percentage points,” DiGiovanni said.

Recent ISM and GDP figures have proven that the so called “recovery” is almost entirely due to government stimulus and liquidity injections.    We now learn that the latest government waste program is going to further boost the economy in artificial way.

clunks

The latest treasury projections are calling for $75B in auctions next week.  So let me get this straight – the U.S. government is taking out loans to help U.S. consumers (who are already debt laden and cash poor) take out loans in order to purchase assets that they don’t really need?  If that isn’t the most backwards kind of stimulus then I don’t know what is.  This short term shot in the arm is exactly the wrong kind of long-term medicine this country and its consumers need.   I am all for consumer stimulus (so long as it isn’t in the form of a blank check), but honestly, is a new car and a new loan what every American is looking for in this time of financial difficulty?

My favorite quote from a recent CNN article:

“The PT Cruiser is not my first, second or probably even 10th pick for a car, but it’s rated well and Chrysler matched the $4,500 federal rebate. I never could have afforded this without the rebate programs, nor would I have purchased a brand new car.”

Just brilliant.  Go out and buy a car you don’t need, want or can really afford….But hey, it’ll be good for the Q3 GDP figure!

Comments »

Earnings Highlights: JOBS, LNT*, ASEI, AWR, AGO, BZH, CPKI, CSIQ, CTL*, CKP, CDE*, CMCSA*, CSC, CLR*, DT*, EP, EOG, FTO*, IAG*, KG*, PCS*, PGH, SD, BX, THS, USM, UN*, UTSI, VE*, WEN, WIN*, & WMB*

Scrolling Headlines From Yahoo in Play



CLR

Q2 adjusted EPS $0.16 vs. estimate of $0.10 * Total revenue fell 51 percent * Average daily production up 18 percent * Production expenses down 23 percent

Aug 6 (Reuters) – Oil and gas exploration and production company Continental Resources Inc (CLR.N) reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, helped by increased production and a decline in oilfield services costs.

Net income for the second quarter was $13.5 million, or 8 cents a share, compared with $127.3 million, or 75 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding items, the company’s earnings for the quarter were $27.1 million, or 16 cents a share. Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of 10 cents a share, before special items, according to Reuters Estimates.

Total revenue fell 51 percent to $146.4 million, but comfortably beat analysts forecast of $136.6 million.

Average daily production for the second quarter rose 18 percent from last year, while production expense fell 23 percent.

“We are pleased with our production growth year-over-year and the continued reduction in drilling and completion costs in the second quarter of 2009,” Chief Executive Harold Hamm said in a statement.

Shares of the company closed at $35.68 Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. They have traded in a range of $12.01 to $56.48 in the last one year. (Reporting by Hezron Selvi in Bangalore; Editing by Jarshad Kakkrakandy)

________________________________________________________________________________________


IAG

Net income $0.12/shr vs $0.11/shr

* EPS ex-items $0.15 (In U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, Aug 6 (Reuters) – Iamgold Corp (IMG.TO) said second-quarter net income rose 33 percent, helped by a higher average realized gold price and lower average cash costs.

Net earnings were $44.1 million, or 12 cents a share, compared with $33.2 million, or 11 cents a share, in the year-earlier period, the Canadian gold miner said on Thursday.

Excluding items, it earned $53.4 million, or 15 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $33.2 million, or 11 cents a share.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected, on average, a profit of 10 cents a share before exceptional items.

Revenue was little changed at $225.3 million, compared with $225.1 million a year earlier.

Gold production was 249,000 ounces at an average cash cost of $437 per ounce, compared with production of 255,000 ounces at an average cash cost of $472 per ounce in the second quarter of 2008

The average realized gold price in the quarter was $898 per ounce, compared with $878 a year earlier. (Reporting by Euan Rocha; editing by John Wallace)

________________________________________________________________________________________

DT

By Ragnhild Kjetland

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe’s biggest telephone company, reported a 32 percent increase in second- quarter profit and reiterated full-year forecasts on measures to improve operations in the U.K., U.S. and Poland.

Net income rose to 521 million euros ($750 million) from 394 million euros a year earlier, the Bonn-based company said in a statement today. Sales rose to 16.2 billion euros from 15.1 billion euros.

Deutsche Telekom said measures to turn around underperforming units are starting to take effect. The company has frozen salaries in the U.S., put some investments on hold, reduced advertising in Poland and replaced management in the U.K. Deutsche Telekom is also trying to stem customer defections at its main fixed-line unit and fend off broadband competition.

“These results show definite progress on cost control in the U.K., which is very positive,” said Michael Kovacocy, a London-based analyst at Daiwa Securities who has a “hold” rating on the stock.

Deutsche Telekom rose 0.7 percent to 8.91 euros as of 11:31 a.m. in Frankfurt trading. Before today, the stock had lost 18 percent this year.

Unchanged Guidance

Deutsche Telekom reiterated a group forecast of full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization dropping 2 percent to 4 percent from last year, excluding Hellenic Telecom. The company had cut the forecast in April, before which it predicted unchanged earnings, blaming the U.S., Poland and the U.K. The value of the U.K. unit was written down by 1.8 billion euros in the first quarter.

The company also reiterated its full-year free cash flow prediction of 7 billion euros. That forecast was also increased in April as a result of the consolidation in February of earnings from Greece’s Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA, in which Deutsche Telekom now owns 30 percent.

“We took resolute action at the right time in a difficult environment,” Chief Executive Officer Rene Obermann said in the statement. “The figures for the second quarter make us confident for the full year.”

The German company still trails European peers. Last week, Telefonica SA, BT Group Plc and France Telecom SA reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates after slashing costs.

Domestic Slide

Deutsche Telekom’s group Ebitda rose to 5.03 billion euros from 4.6 billion euros. Analysts had estimated Ebitda of 5.15 billion euros, net income of 743 million euros and 16.3 billion euros in sales, according to the average estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The broadband and fixed-line division’s domestic sales fell 5.1 percent to 4.75 billion euros in the second quarter.

Deutsche Telekom said revenue at its T-Mobile operations in Germany fell 3.8 percent to 1.88 billion euros in the quarter, while adjusted Ebitda declined 6.9 percent to 720 million euros.

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LNT

MADISON, Wis., Aug. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Alliant Energy Corporation (NYSE: LNTNews) today announced net income and earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of 2009 of $29.1 million and $0.26, respectively, compared to $60.8 million and $0.55 for the same period in 2008. A summary of Alliant Energy’s second quarter earnings is as follows (net income / (loss) in millions):

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020405/LNTLOGO)

                                             2009               2008
    Earnings from continuing         -----------------   -----------------
     operations:                     Net Income   EPS    Net Income   EPS
                                     ----------   ---    ----------   ---
      Interstate Power and Light
       Co. (IPL)                       $15.6     $0.14     $16.7     $0.15
      Wisconsin Power and Light
       Co. (WPL)                        10.7      0.10      19.5      0.18
                                       -----     -----     -----     -----
        Subtotal Utility                26.3      0.24      36.2      0.33
      Non-regulated                      4.7      0.04      12.6      0.11
      Parent                            (1.9)    (0.02)      3.0      0.03
                                       -----     -----     -----     -----
    Total earnings from continuing
     operations                         29.1      0.26      51.8      0.47
    Income from discontinued
     operations                            -         -       9.0      0.08
                                       -----     -----     -----     -----
    Net income                         $29.1     $0.26     $60.8     $0.55
                                       =====     =====     =====     =====

CMCSA

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Comcast Corp., the nation’s biggest cable TV systems operator, posted a 53 percent increase in second-quarter profit on Thursday, helped by higher prices and increased customer spending on video and Internet services. But subscriber growth markedly slowed as the recession’s grip didn’t lessen.

Comcast said it hasn’t yet seen signs of an economic rebound. Local advertising remains depressed.

The quarter’s subscriber growth was dampened by the housing slump, jobless rate and competition, as well as a seasonal slowdown due to college students and senior citizen ‘snowbirds’ disconnecting for the summer.

Philadelphia-based Comcast earned $967 million, or 33 cents per share, in the quarter ended June 30, compared with $632 million, or 21 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Revenue rose by 4.5 percent to $8.94 billion from $8.55 billion, helped by more customer sign-ups and higher prices.

The performance exceeded the expectations of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, who were looking for earnings of 26 cents per share and revenue of $8.86 billion, on average.

Free cash flow edged up less than 1 percent to $1.17 billion. Local advertising revenue dropped nearly 20 percent to $325 million from $405 million.

Comcast said it added nearly 334,200 lines of service, down from last year’s nearly 960,000. The company lost about 213,800 basic video customers, up sharply from the loss of 138,100 a year ago. Digital cable TV added nearly 250,000 subscribers, but that was still well below the nearly 320,000 added in the 2008 period.

High-speed Internet saw the biggest drop in new customers, with the company signing up just 65,000 new users compared with the 278,500 new subscribers recorded in the year-ago period. Digital voice added 233,350 subscribers, down 58 percent.

Customers spent more per month on average on video and Internet services, but not phone. Video revenue per customer rose 7.4 percent to $117.74, helped by higher prices and customers signing up for premium services such as HD packages as they stayed home to watch entertainment rather than going out.

The monthly revenue from Internet services was $42.06, up from $41.98 a year ago. But phone revenue per subscriber fell to $38.78 from $39.46.

The company said it began trials of its online video program in July, in which 5,000 Comcast customers nationwide could access cable TV programs over the Internet with a log-in. Partners in the venture include HBO, Starz and CBS. It expects to launch the service in the fourth quarter.

The online video program, called ‘On Demand Online’ by Comcast and ‘TV Everywhere’ by Time Warner Inc., seeks to give cable customers access to cable TV content on computers and mobile phones without jeopardizing subscription revenue.

Comcast also stepped up its ultra-high-speed Internet deployment of 50 Megabits per second or higher. It now expects to launch the service in 80 percent of its markets by year-end, up from 65 percent. Comcast, like other cable TV operators, is ramping up services as it faces competition from Verizon Communications Inc.’s fiber-optic FiOS and AT&T Inc.’s U-verse.

Comcast resumed its share buyback program in the quarter, spending $215 million to repurchase 15.5 million shares.


KG

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — King Pharmaceuticals Inc., /quotes/comstock/13*!kg/quotes/nls/kg (KG 9.26, -0.12, -1.28%) the Bristol, Tenn., drugmaker, reported second-quarter net income fell 6.9% on 12% higher revenue. Net was $37.9 million, or 15 cents a share, against $40.8 million, or 17 cents, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted earnings were 32 cents a share versus 35 cents. Revenue reached $445 million from $396.9 million. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced consensus estimates of 24 cents of profit on $437.8 million of sales.


PCS

LONDON (MarketWatch) — MetroPCS Communications Inc /quotes/comstock/13*!pcs/quotes/nls/pcs (PCS 12.69, +0.03, +0.24%) , a provider of flat-rate no-contract wireless communications services, on Thursday said second-quarter net income fell 48% to $26 million, or 7 cents a share, from $50 million, or 14 cents a share, earned in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose 27% to $856 million. The consensus forecast was for earnings of 13 cents a share, according to a poll of 21 analysts surveyed by FactSet Research. MetroPCS said that churn increased in the quarter, but reaffirmed its guidance for the year.


UN

LONDON (TheStreet) – Consumer products maker Unilever(UL Quote) said margins slipped and second-quarter earnings fell 17% to 758 million euros ($1.09 billion) even as it saw volume growth across its operations.

Revenue in the period rose 1% to 10.46 billion euros, with underlying sales growth of 4.1% and volume growth of 2%, Unilever said in a statement Thursday.

Sales were in line with analysts’ expectations, but profit was slightly below.

“While conditions remain difficult in many markets, I am encouraged by the return to volume growth across all regions and the majority of countries and categories,” said CEO Paul Polman in a statement. “More of our brands are improving share again behind strong innovations, greater consumer value, increased marketing support and better execution. We continue to focus on restoring volume growth while protecting margins and cash flow for the year as a whole.”

Unilever didn’t specify why its margins slid, but noted it had spent more money on advertisements and suffered from higher commodity costs. Profits also were hit by 77 million euros more in pension-related costs than a year earlier.

Sales rose 6.6% in Asia and Africa, now Unilever’s largest market, 0.6% in the Americas, but fell 5.1% in Western Europe. Operating profits were up by 18% in Asia, but fell by 1% in the Americas and 24% in Western Europe.

Unilever is the maker of Lipton teas, Bertolli pastas and Dove soaps.

The world’s biggest consumer-products company, Procter & Gamble(PG Quote), said Wednesday fiscal fourth-quarter earnings fell 18% to $2.47 billion, or 80 cents a share, as sales fell 11% and volumes declined 5%.

— Reported by Joseph Woelfel in New York .


VE

PARIS (MarketWatch) — French water, waste, transport and energy services group Veolia Environnement /quotes/comstock/13*!ve/quotes/nls/ve (VE 32.51, -2.18, -6.28%) Thursday said first-half net profit fell 56% as it wrote down the value of some assets, but said it is on track to meet its cash-oriented objectives for the full year. The world’s largest water company by market capitalization said first-half net profit fell to EUR220.3 million from EUR500.5 million in the same period a year earlier as it wrote down some Italian waste assets and adjusted the value of some operations slated for sale. The net profit figure falls short of an average expectation of EUR387 million, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of four analysts. First-half revenue fell to EUR17.43 billion, down 0.8% from a year-earlier figure of EUR17.57 billion, Veolia said. Veolia confirmed its 2009 goals, including the generation of positive free cash flow after payment of the dividend and operating cash flow after deduction of net investments of approximately EUR2 billion at constant exchange rates.


WIN

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Windstream Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!win/quotes/nls/win (WIN 8.94, 0.00, 0.00%) said Thursday that it earned $91 million, or 21 cents a share, compared to $102 million, or 23 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Revenue fell to $753 million from $800 million, a fall of 6%. Analysts polled by FactSet Research estimated, on average, earnings per share of 23 cents and sales of $754 million at the Little Rock. Ark. cable and phone company.

WMB

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Williams /quotes/comstock/13*!wmb/quotes/nls/wmb (WMB 17.03, -0.38, -2.18%) said Thursday that second-quarter earnings slid to $142 million, or 24 cents a share, compared to $437 million, or 73 cents a share, in the same period last year. The company blamed sharply lower energy commodity prices, compared to the record-high prices in second-quarter 2008. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were 20 cents. Analysts polled by FactSet Research estimated, on average, earnings per share of 16 cents. For 2009, the energy company sees adjusted earnings per share of 70 cents to 90 cents.

Second quarter 2009 utility earnings were down $0.09 per share compared to the same period in 2008. However, $0.08 per share of the earnings decline was due to restructuring and impairment charges in the second quarter of 2009; including $0.06 per share of restructuring charges associated with cost reduction efforts, and $0.02 per share for an impairment of IPL’s steam assets resulting from a recent decision to discontinue providing steam service in downtown Cedar Rapids, Iowa in late 2009.

The lower earnings in the second quarter of 2009 for Alliant Energy’s non-regulated businesses were primarily due to a $0.04 per share reduction in tax benefits from an IRS audit settlement in 2008 that benefited the second quarter of 2008 and operating results at RMT, Inc. that were $0.03 per share lower than the second quarter of 2008.

Results at Alliant Energy’s parent company were negatively impacted by lower balances of and lower interest rates on cash and short-term investments and increased professional expenses incurred in the second quarter of 2009.

“Excluding the restructuring and impairment charges, our second quarter 2009 results for our utility business were flat compared to the same period last year. In analyzing the two utilities separately for the second quarter, WPL is significantly under-earning, whereas IPL’s earnings are comparable to the same period last year,” said Bill Harvey, Alliant Energy Chairman, President, and CEO. “Continued pressures from the economy and record cool weather in July have proven to be larger than our internal ability to prudently reduce operating costs. As a result, we are lowering our earnings guidance for 2009.”

“The path to restoring utility and RMT earnings to acceptable levels is contingent on two items. First, our utility business must execute constructive outcomes in rate cases at IPL and WPL in order for revenues to reflect lower retail sales and the recovery of our sizeable investments in wind, environmental retrofits, and advanced metering infrastructure. Second, RMT needs the combination of incentives in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and pending energy legislation to produce their intended effect of increasing growth in the renewable energy market place. We continue to believe that RMT is well positioned to participate in that expected growth.”

Additional details regarding Alliant Energy’s second quarter EPS from continuing operations for 2009 and 2008 are as follows:

Comments »

Editorial: Power Grab

Our Enemy, The State:

If we look beneath the surface of our public affairs, we can discern one fundamental fact, namely, a great redistribution of power between society and the State. This is the fact that interests the student of civilization. He has only a secondary or derived interest in matters like price fixing, wage fixing, inflation, political banking, “agricultural adjustment,” and similar items of State policy that fill the pages of newspapers and the mouths of publicists and politicians. All these can be run up under one head. They have an immediate and temporary importance, and for this reason they monopolize public attention, but they all come to the same thing; which is, an increase of State power and a corresponding decrease of social power.

It is unfortunately none too well understood that, just as the State has no money of its own, so it has no power of its own. All the power it has is what society gives it, plus what it confiscates from time to time on one pretext or another; there is no other source from which State power can be drawn. Therefore every assumption of State power, whether by gift or seizure, leaves society with so much less power. There is never, nor can there be, any strengthening of State power without a corresponding and roughly equivalent depletion of social power.

Moreover, it follows that with any exercise of State power, not only the exercise of social power in the same direction, but the disposition to exercise it in that direction, tends to dwindle. Mayor Gaynor astonished the whole of New York when he pointed out to a correspondent who had been complaining about the inefficiency of the police, that any citizen has the right to arrest a malefactor and bring him before a magistrate. “The law of England and of this country,” he wrote, “has been very careful to confer no more right in that respect upon policemen and constables than it confers on every citizen.” State exercise of that right through a police force had gone on so steadily that not only were citizens indisposed to exercise it, but probably not one in ten thousand knew he had it.

Heretofore in this country sudden crises of misfortune have been met by a mobilization of social power. In fact — except for certain institutional enterprises like the home for the aged, the lunatic asylum, city hospital, and county poorhouse — destitution, unemployment, “depression,” and similar ills, have been no concern of the State, but have been relieved by the application of social power. Under Mr. Roosevelt, however, the State assumed this function, publicly announcing the doctrine, brand new in our history, that the State owes its citizens a living.

Students of politics, of course, saw in this merely an astute proposal for a prodigious enhancement of State power; merely what, as long ago as 1794, James Madison called “the old trick of turning every contingency into a resource for accumulating force in the government”; and the passage of time has proved that they were right. The effect of this upon the balance between State power and social power is clear, and also its effect of a general indoctrination with the idea that an exercise of social power upon such matters is no longer called for.

It is largely in this way that the progressive conversion of social power into State power becomes acceptable and gets itself accepted. [1] When the Johnstown flood occurred, social power was immediately mobilized and applied with intelligence and vigor. Its abundance, measured by money alone, was so great that when everything was finally put in order, something like a million dollars remained.

If such a catastrophe happened now, not only is social power perhaps too depleted for the like exercise, but the general instinct would be to let the State see to it. Not only has social power atrophied to that extent, but the disposition to exercise it in that particular direction has atrophied with it. If the State has made such matters its business, and has confiscated the social power necessary to deal with them, why, let it deal with them.

We can get some kind of rough measure of this general atrophy by our own disposition when approached by a beggar. Two years ago we might have been moved to give him something; today we are moved to refer him to the State’s relief agency. The State has said to society, “You are either not exercising enough power to meet the emergency, or are exercising it in what I think is an incompetent way, so I shall confiscate your power, and exercise it to suit myself.” Hence when a beggar asks us for a quarter, our instinct is to say that the State has already confiscated our quarter for his benefit, and he should go to the State about it.

Every positive intervention that the State makes upon industry and commerce has a similar effect. When the State intervenes to fix wages or prices, or to prescribe the conditions of competition, it virtually tells the enterpriser that he is not exercising social power in the right way, and therefore it proposes to confiscate his power and exercise it according to the State’s own judgment of what is best. Hence the enterpriser’s instinct is to let the State look after the consequences.

As a simple illustration of this, a manufacturer of a highly specialized type of textiles was saying to me the other day that he had kept his mill going at a loss for five years because he did not want to turn his workpeople on the street in such hard times, but now that the State had stepped in to tell him how he must run his business, the State might jolly well take the responsibility.

The process of converting social power into State power may perhaps be seen at its simplest in cases where the State’s intervention is directly competitive. The accumulation of State power in various countries has been so accelerated and diversified within the last twenty years that we now see the State functioning as telegraphist, telephonist, match peddler, radio operator, cannon founder, railway builder and owner, railway operator, wholesale and retail tobacconist, shipbuilder and owner, chief chemist, harbor maker and dockbuilder, housebuilder, chief educator, newspaper proprietor, food purveyor, dealer in insurance, and so on through a long list.[2]

It is obvious that private forms of these enterprises must tend to dwindle in proportion as the energy of the State’s encroachments on them increases, for the competition of social power with State power is always disadvantaged, since the State can arrange the terms of competition to suit itself, even to the point of outlawing any exercise of social power whatever in the premises; in other words, giving itself a monopoly. Instances of this expedient are common; the one we are probably best acquainted with is the State’s monopoly on letter carrying. Social power is estopped by sheer fiat from application to this form of enterprise, notwithstanding it could carry it on far cheaper and — in this country at least — far better.

The advantages of this monopoly in promoting the State’s interests are peculiar. No other, probably, could secure so large and well-distributed a volume of patronage, under the guise of a public service in constant use by so large a number of people; it plants a lieutenant of the State at every country crossroad. It is by no means a pure coincidence that an administration’s chief almoner and whip at large is so regularly appointed postmaster general.

Thus the State “turns every contingency into a resource” for accumulating power in itself, always at the expense of social power; and with this it develops a habit of acquiescence in the people. New generations appear, each temperamentally adjusted — or as I believe our American glossary now has it, “conditioned” — to new increments of State power, and they tend to take the process of continuous accumulation as quite in order. All the State’s institutional voices unite in confirming this tendency; they unite in exhibiting the progressive conversion of social power into State power as something not only quite in order, but even as wholesome and necessary for the public good.

“Every assumption of State power, whether by gift or seizure, leaves society with so much less power.”

II

In the United States at the present time, the principal indexes of the increase of State power are three in number.

First, the point to which the centralization of State authority has been carried. Practically all the sovereign rights and powers of the smaller political units — all of them that are significant enough to be worth absorbing — have been absorbed by the federal unit; nor is this all. State power has not only been thus concentrated at Washington, but it has been so far concentrated into the hands of the executive that the existing regime is a regime of personal government. It is nominally republican, but actually monocratic; a curious anomaly, but highly characteristic of a people little gifted with intellectual integrity.

Personal government is not exercised here in the same ways as in Italy, Russia or Germany, for there is as yet no State interest to be served by so doing, but rather the contrary; while in those countries there is. But personal government is always personal government; the mode of its exercise is a matter of immediate political expediency, and is determined entirely by circumstances.

This regime was established by a coup d’état of a new and unusual kind, practicable only in a rich country. It was effected, not by violence, like Louis-Napoleon’s, or by terrorism, like Mussolini’s, but by purchase. It therefore presents what might be called an American variant of the coup d’état .[3]

Our national legislature was not suppressed by force of arms, like the French Assembly in 1851, but was bought out of its functions with public money; and as appeared most conspicuously in the elections of November, 1934, the consolidation of the coup d’état was effected by the same means; the corresponding functions in the smaller units were reduced under the personal control of the executive.[4]

This is a most remarkable phenomenon; possibly nothing quite like it ever took place; and its character and implications deserve the most careful attention.

A second index is supplied by the prodigious extension of the bureaucratic principle that is now observable. This is attested prima facie by the number of new boards, bureaus, and commissions set up at Washington in the last two years. They are reported as representing something like 90,000 new employees appointed outside the civil service, and the total of the federal payroll in Washington is reported as something over three million dollars per month.[5]

This, however, is relatively a small matter. The pressure of centralization has tended powerfully to convert every official and every political aspirant in the smaller units into a venal and complaisant agent of the federal bureaucracy. This presents an interesting parallel with the state of things prevailing in the Roman Empire in the last days of the Flavian dynasty, and afterwards. The rights and practices of local self-government, which were formerly very considerable in the provinces and much more so in the municipalities, were lost by surrender rather than by suppression. The imperial bureaucracy, which up to the second century was comparatively a modest affair, grew rapidly to great size, and local politicians were quick to see the advantage of being on terms with it. They came to Rome with their hats in their hands — as governors, congressional aspirants and such-like now go to Washington. Their eyes and thoughts were constantly fixed on Rome, because recognition and preferment lay that way; and in their incorrigible sycophancy they became, as Plutarch says, like hypochondriacs who dare not eat or take a bath without consulting their physician.

A third index is seen in the erection of poverty and mendicancy into a permanent political asset. Two years ago, many of our people were in hard straits; to some extent, no doubt, through no fault of their own, though it is now clear that in the popular view of their case, as well as in the political view, the line between the deserving poor and the undeserving poor was not distinctly drawn. Popular feeling ran high at the time, and the prevailing wretchedness was regarded with undiscriminating emotion, as evidence of some general wrong done upon its victims by society at large, rather than as the natural penalty of greed, folly or actual misdoings; which in large part it was.

The State, always instinctively “turning every contingency into a resource” for accelerating the conversion of social power into State power, was quick to take advantage of this state of mind. All that was needed to organize these unfortunates into an invaluable political property was to declare the doctrine that the State owes all its citizens a living; and this was accordingly done. It immediately precipitated an enormous mass of subsidized voting power, an enormous resource for strengthening the State at the expense of society.[6]

“Thus the State ‘turns every contingency into a resource’ for accumulating power in itself, always at the expense of social power…”

III

There is an impression that the enhancement of State power which has taken place since 1932 is provisional and temporary, that the corresponding depletion of social power is by way of a kind of emergency loan, and therefore is not to be scrutinized too closely. There is every probability that this belief is devoid of foundation.

No doubt our present regime will be modified in one way and another; indeed, it must be, for the process of consolidation itself requires it. But any essential change would be quite unhistorical, quite without precedent, and is therefore most unlikely; and by an essential change, I mean one that will tend to redistribute actual power between the State and society. [7]

In the nature of things, there is no reason why such a change should take place, and every reason why it should not. We shall see various apparent recessions, apparent compromises, but the one thing we may be quite sure of is that none of these will tend to diminish actual State power.

For example, we shall no doubt shortly see the great pressure group of politically organized poverty and mendicancy subsidized indirectly instead of directly, because State interest can not long keep pace with the hand-over-head disposition of the masses to loot their own Treasury. The method of direct subsidy, or sheer cash purchase, will therefore in all probability soon give way to the indirect method of what is called “social legislation”; that is, a multiplex system of State-managed pensions, insurances and indemnities of various kinds.

This is an apparent recession, and when it occurs it will no doubt be proclaimed as an actual recession, no doubt accepted as such; but is it? Does it actually tend to diminish State power and increase social power? Obviously not, but quite the opposite. It tends to consolidate firmly this particular fraction of State power, and opens the way to getting an indefinite increment upon it by the mere continuous invention of new courses and developments of State-administered social legislation, which is an extremely simple business. One may add the observation for whatever its evidential value may be worth, that if the effect of progressive social legislation upon the sum total of State power were unfavorable or even nil, we should hardly have found Prince de Bismarck and the British Liberal politicians of forty years ago going in for anything remotely resembling it.

When, therefore, the inquiring student of civilization has occasion to observe this or any other apparent recession upon any point of our present regime,[8] he may content himself with asking the one question, What effect has this upon the sum total of State power? The answer he gives himself will show conclusively whether the recession is actual or apparent, and this is all he is concerned to know.

There is also an impression that if actual recessions do not come about of themselves, they may be brought about by the expedient of voting one political party out and another one in. This idea rests upon certain assumptions that experience has shown to be unsound; the first one being that the power of the ballot is what republican political theory makes it out to be, and that therefore the electorate has an effective choice in the matter. It is a matter of open and notorious fact that nothing like this is true. Our nominally republican system is actually built on an imperial model, with our professional politicians standing in the place of the Praetorian guards; they meet from time to time, decide what can be “got away with,” and how, and who is to do it; and the electorate votes according to their prescriptions. Under these conditions it is easy to provide the appearance of any desired concession of State power, without the reality; our history shows innumerable instances of very easy dealing with problems in practical politics much more difficult than that.

One may remark in this connection also the notoriously baseless assumption that party designations connote principles, and that party pledges imply performance. Moreover, underlying these assumptions and all others that faith in “political action” contemplates, is the assumption that the interests of the State and the interests of society are, at least theoretically, identical; whereas in theory they are directly opposed, and this opposition invariably declares itself in practice to the precise extent that circumstances permit.

However, without pursuing these matters further at the moment, it is probably enough to observe here that in the nature of things the exercise of personal government, the control of a huge and growing bureaucracy, and the management of an enormous mass of subsidized voting power, are as agreeable to one stripe of politician as they are to another. Presumably they interest a Republican or a Progressive as much as they do a Democrat, Communist, Farmer-Labourite, Socialist, or whatever a politician may, for electioneering purposes, see fit to call himself.

This was demonstrated in the local campaigns of 1934 by the practical attitude of politicians who represented nominal opposition parties. It is now being further demonstrated by the derisible haste that the leaders of the official opposition are making towards what they call “reorganization” of their party. One may well be inattentive to their words; their actions, however, mean simply that the recent accretions of State power are here to stay, and that they are aware of it; and that, such being the case, they are preparing to dispose themselves most advantageously in a contest for their control and management. This is all that “reorganization” of the Republican party means, and all it is meant to mean; and this is in itself quite enough to show that any expectation of an essential change of regime through a change of party administration is illusory.

On the contrary, it is clear that whatever party competition we shall see hereafter will be on the same terms as heretofore. It will be a competition for control and management, and it would naturally issue in still closer centralization, still further extension of the bureaucratic principle, and still larger concessions to subsidized voting power. This course would be strictly historical, and is furthermore to be expected as lying in the nature of things, as it so obviously does.

Indeed, it is by this means that the aim of the collectivists seems likeliest to be attained in this country; this aim being the complete extinction of social power through absorption by the State. Their fundamental doctrine was formulated and invested with a quasi-religious sanction by the idealist philosophers of the last century; and among peoples who have accepted it in terms as well as in fact, it is expressed in formulas almost identical with theirs.

Thus, for example, when Hitler says that “the State dominates the nation because it alone represents it,” he is only putting into loose popular language the formula of Hegel, that “the State is the general substance, whereof individuals are but accidents.” Or, again, when Mussolini says, “Everything for the State; nothing outside the State; nothing against the State,” he is merely vulgarizing the doctrine of Fichte, that “the State is the superior power, ultimate and beyond appeal, absolutely independent.”

It may be in place to remark here the essential identity of the various extant forms of collectivism. The superficial distinctions of Fascism, Bolshevism, Hitlerism, are the concern of journalists and publicists; the serious student[9] sees in them only the one root idea of a complete conversion of social power into State power. When Hitler and Mussolini invoke a kind of debased and hoodwinking mysticism to aid their acceleration of this process, the student at once recognizes his old friend, the formula of Hegel, that “the State incarnates the Divine Idea upon earth,” and he is not hoodwinked. The journalist and the impressionable traveler may make what they will of “the new religion of Bolshevism”; the student contents himself with remarking clearly the exact nature of the process which this inculcation is designed to sanction.

Indeed, the aim of the collectivists is the complete extinction of social power through absorption by the State.

IV

This process — the conversion of social power into State power — has not been carried as far here as it has elsewhere; as it has in Russia, Italy or Germany, for example. Two things, however, are to be observed.

First, that it has gone a long way, at a rate of progress which has of late been greatly accelerated. What has chiefly differentiated its progress here from its progress in other countries is its unspectacular character. Mr. Jefferson wrote in 1823 that there was no danger he dreaded so much as “the consolidation [i.e., centralization] of our government by the noiseless and therefore unalarming instrumentality of the Supreme Court.” These words characterize every advance that we have made in State aggrandizement. Each one has been noiseless and therefore unalarming, especially to a people notoriously preoccupied, inattentive and incurious.

Even the coup d’état of 1932 was noiseless and unalarming. In Russia, Italy, Germany, the coup d’état was violent and spectacular; it had to be; but here it was neither. Under cover of a nationwide, State-managed mobilization of inane buffoonery and aimless commotion, it took place in so unspectacular a way that its true nature escaped notice, and even now is not generally understood. The method of consolidating the ensuing regime, moreover, was also noiseless and unalarming; it was merely the prosaic and unspectacular “higgling of the market,” to which a long and uniform political experience had accustomed us.

A visitor from a poorer and thriftier country might have regarded Mr. Farley’s activities in the local campaigns of 1934 as striking or even spectacular, but they made no such impression on us. They seemed so familiar, so much the regular thing, that one heard little comment on them. Moreover, political habit led us to attribute whatever unfavorable comment we did hear, to interest; either partisan or monetary interest, or both. We put it down as the jaundiced judgment of persons with axes to grind; and naturally the regime did all it could to encourage this view.

The second thing to be observed is that certain formulas, certain arrangements of words, stand as an obstacle in the way of our perceiving how far the conversion of social power into State power has actually gone. The force of phrase and name distorts the identification of our own actual acceptances and acquiescences. We are accustomed to the rehearsal of certain poetic litanies, and provided their cadence be kept entire, we are indifferent to their correspondence with truth and fact.

When Hegel’s doctrine of the State, for example, is restated in terms by Hitler and Mussolini, it is distinctly offensive to us, and we congratulate ourselves on our freedom from the “yoke of a dictator’s tyranny.” No American politician would dream of breaking in on our routine of litanies with anything of the kind. We may imagine, for example, the shock to popular sentiment that would ensue upon Mr. Roosevelt’s declaring publicly that “the State embraces everything, and nothing has value outside the State. The State creates right.” Yet an American politician, as long as he does not formulate that doctrine in set terms, may go further with it in a practical way than Mussolini has gone, and without trouble or question. Suppose Mr. Roosevelt should defend his regime by publicly reasserting Hegel’s dictum that “the State alone possesses rights, because it is the strongest.” One can hardly imagine that our public would get that down without a great deal of retching. Yet how far, really, is that doctrine alien to our public’s actual acquiescences? Surely not far.

The point is that in respect of the relation between the theory and the actual practice of public affairs, the American is the most unphilosophical of beings. The rationalization of conduct in general is most repugnant to him; he prefers to emotionalize it. He is indifferent to the theory of things, so long as he may rehearse his formulas; and so long as he can listen to the patter of his litanies, no practical inconsistency disturbs him — indeed, he gives no evidence of even recognizing it as an inconsistency.

The ablest and most acute observer among the many who came from Europe to look us over in the early part of the last century was the one who is for some reason the most neglected, notwithstanding that in our present circumstances, especially, he is worth more to us than all the de Tocquevilles, Bryces, Trollopes, and Chateaubriands put together. This was the noted Stationing and political economist, Michel Chevalier.

Professor Chinard, in his admirable biographical study of John Adams, has called attention to Chevalier’s observation that the American people have “the morale of an army on the march.” The more one thinks of this, the more clearly one sees how little there is in what our publicists are fond of calling “the American psychology” that it does not exactly account for; and it exactly accounts for the trait that we are considering.

An army on the march has no philosophy; it views itself as a creature of the moment. It does not rationalize conduct except in terms of an immediate end. As Tennyson observed, there is a pretty strict official understanding against its doing so; “theirs not to reason why.” Emotionalizing conduct is another matter, and the more of it the better; it is encouraged by a whole elaborate paraphernalia of showy etiquette, flags, music, uniforms, decorations, and the careful cultivation of a very special sort of camaraderie. In every relation to “the reason of the thing,” however — in the ability and eagerness, as Plato puts it, “to see things as they are” — the mentality of an army on the march is merely so much delayed adolescence; it remains persistently, incorrigibly, and notoriously infantile.

Past generations of Americans, as Martin Chuzzlewit left record, erected this infantilism into a distinguishing virtue, and they took great pride in it as the mark of a chosen people, destined to live forever amidst the glory of their own unparalleled achievements wie Gott in Frankreich. Mr. Jefferson Brick, General Choke and the Honorable Elijah Pogram made a first-class job of indoctrinating their countrymen with the idea that a philosophy is wholly unnecessary, and that a concern with the theory of things is effeminate and unbecoming.

An envious and presumably dissolute Frenchman may say what he likes about the morale of an army on the march, but the fact remains that it has brought us where we are, and has got us what we have. Look at a continent subdued, see the spread of our industry and commerce, our railways, newspapers, finance companies, schools, colleges, what you will! Well, if all this has been done without a philosophy, if we have grown to this unrivalled greatness without any attention to the theory of things, does it not show that philosophy and the theory of things are all moonshine, and not worth a practical people’s consideration? The morale of an army on the march is good enough for us, and we are proud of it.

The present generation does not speak in quite this tone of robust certitude. It seems, if anything, rather less openly contemptuous of philosophy; one even sees some signs of a suspicion that in our present circumstances the theory of things might be worth looking into, and it is especially towards the theory of sovereignty and rulership that this new attitude of hospitality appears to be developing. The condition of public affairs in all countries, notably in our own, has done more than bring under review the mere current practice of politics, the character and quality of representative politicians, and the relative merits of this or that form or mode of government. It has served to suggest attention to the one institution whereof all these forms or modes are but the several, and, from the theoretical point of view, indifferent, manifestations. It suggests that finality does not lie with consideration of species, but of genus; it does not lie with consideration of the characteristic marks that differentiate the republican State, monocratic State, constitutional, collectivist, totalitarian, Hitlerian, Bolshevist, what you will. It lies with consideration of the State itself.

The citizen should ask himself whether he has a theory of the State, and if so, whether he can assure himself that history supports it.

V

There appears to be a curious difficulty about exercising reflective thought upon the actual nature of an institution into which one was born and one’s ancestors were born. One accepts it as one does the atmosphere; one’s practical adjustments to it are made by a kind of reflex. One seldom thinks about the air until one notices some change, favorable or unfavorable, and then one’s thought about it is special; one thinks about purer air, lighter air, heavier air, not about air.

So it is with certain human institutions. We know that they exist, that they affect us in various ways, but we do not ask how they came to exist, or what their original intention was, or what primary function it is that they are actually fulfilling; and when they affect us so unfavorably that we rebel against them, we contemplate substituting nothing beyond some modification or variant of the same institution. Thus colonial America, oppressed by the monarchical State, brings in the republican State; Germany gives up the republican State for the Hitlerian State; Russia exchanges the monocratic State for the collectivist State; Italy exchanges the constitutionalist State for the totalitarian State.

It is interesting to observe that in the year 1935 the average individual’s incurious attitude towards the phenomenon of the State is precisely what his attitude was towards the phenomenon of the Church in the year, say, 1500. The State was then a very weak institution; the Church was very strong. The individual was born into the Church, as his ancestors had been for generations, in precisely the formal, documented fashion in which he is now born into the State. He was taxed for the Church’s support, as he now is for the State’s support. He was supposed to accept the official theory and doctrine of the Church, to conform to its discipline, and in a general way to do as it told him; again, precisely the sanctions that the State now lays upon him. If he were reluctant or recalcitrant, the Church made a satisfactory amount of trouble for him, as the State now does.

Notwithstanding all this, it does not appear to have occurred to the Church citizen of that day, any more than it occurs to the State citizen of the present, to ask what sort of institution it was that claimed his allegiance. There it was; he accepted its own account of itself, took it as it stood, and at its own valuation. Even when he revolted, fifty years later, he merely exchanged one form or mode of the Church for another, the Roman for the Calvinist, Lutheran, Zwinglian, or what not; again, quite as the modern State citizen exchanges one mode of the State for another. He did not examine the institution itself, nor does the State citizen today.

My purpose in writing is to raise the question of whether the enormous depletion of social power which we are witnessing everywhere does not suggest the importance of knowing more than we do about the essential nature of the institution that is so rapidly absorbing this volume of power.[10]

One of my friends said to me lately that if the public-utility corporations did not mend their ways, the State would take over their business and operate it. He spoke with a curiously reverent air of finality. Just so, I thought, might a Church citizen, at the end of the fifteenth century, have spoken of some impending intervention of the Church; and I wondered then whether he had any better-informed and closer-reasoned theory of the State than his prototype had of the Church. Frankly, I am sure he had not. His pseudoconception was merely an unreasoned acceptance of the State on its own terms and at its own valuation; and in this acceptance he showed himself no more intelligent, and no less, than the whole mass of State citizenry at large.

It appears to me that with the depletion of social power going on at the rate it is, the State citizen should look very closely into the essential nature of the institution that is bringing it about. He should ask himself whether he has a theory of the State, and if so, whether he can assure himself that history supports it. He will not find this a matter that can be settled offhand; it needs a good deal of investigation, and a stiff exercise of reflective thought.

He should ask, in the first place, how the State originated, and why; it must have come about somehow, and for some purpose. This seems an extremely easy question to answer, but he will not find it so. Then he should ask what it is that history exhibits continuously as the State’s primary function. Then, whether he finds that “the State” and “government” are strictly synonymous terms; he uses them as such, but are they? Are there any invariable characteristic marks that differentiate the institution of government from the institution of the State? Then finally he should decide whether, by the testimony of history, the State is to be regarded as, in essence, a social or an antisocial institution?

It is pretty clear now that if the Church citizen of 1500 had put his mind on questions as fundamental as these, his civilization might have had a much easier and pleasanter course to run; and the State citizen of today may profit by his experience.

Notes

[1] The result of a questionnaire published in July, 1935, showed 76.8 per cent of the replies favorable to the idea that it is the State’s duty to see that every person who wants a job shall have one; 20.1 per cent were against it, and 3.1 per cent were undecided.

[2] In this country, the State is at present manufacturing furniture, grinding flour, producing fertilizer, building houses; selling farm products, dairy products, textiles, canned goods, and electrical apparatus; operating employment agencies and home-loan offices; financing exports and imports; financing agriculture. It also controls the issuance of securities, communications by wire and radio, discount rates, oil production, power production, commercial competition, the production and sale of alcohol, and the use of inland waterways and railways.

[3] There is a sort of precedent for it in Roman history, if the story be true in all its details that the army sold the emperorship to Didius Julianus for something like five million dollars. Money has often been used to grease the wheels of a coup d’état, but straight over-the-counter purchase is unknown, I think, except in these two instances.

[4] On the day I write this, the newspapers say that the president is about to order a stoppage on the flow of federal relief funds into Louisiana, for the purpose of bringing Senator Long to terms. I have seen no comment, however, on the propriety of this kind of procedure.

[5] A friend in the theatrical business tells me that from the box-office point of view, Washington is now the best theater town, concert town and general-amusement town in the United States, far better than New York.

[6] The feature of the approaching campaign of 1936 which will most interest the student of civilization will be the use of the four-billion-dollar relief fund that has been placed at the president’s disposal — the extent, that is, to which it will be distributed on a patronage basis.

[7] It must always be kept in mind that there is a tidal motion as well as a wave motion in these matters, and that the wave motion is of little importance, relatively. For instance, the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the National Recovery Act counts for nothing in determining the actual status of personal government. The real question is not how much less the sum of personal government is now than it was before that decision, but how much greater it is normally now than it was in 1932, and in years preceding.

[8] As, for example, the spectacular voiding of the National Recovery Act.

[9] This book is a sort of syllabus or précis of some lectures to students of American history and politics — mostly graduate students — and it therefore presupposes some little acquaintance with those subjects. The few references I have given, however, will put any reader in the way of documenting and amplifying it satisfactorily.

[10] An inadequate and partial idea of what this volume amounts to, may be got from the fact that the American State’s income from taxation is now about one third of the nation’s total income! This takes into account all forms of taxation, direct and indirect, local and federal.

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