Night Owl Open Forum

For you night owls out there, here is a good lesson in patience in letting a thesis play out.

I mentioned tech firm NetSuite late-last year as being an extended, long-term chart; so extended to the point where the rubber band was likely to snap back.

As you can see on the daily chart, that has happened of late. But you can argue it has now been a major topping process dating back to last fall.

Which other charts do you see as vulnerable, late-stage bases with rubber band snapback potential like NetSuite?

Speak your mind, night owls, about anything else.

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Actionable long setups are still sparse this evening, even with mega cap techs from yesteryear rallying like it is the 1990’s. Steels have seen a nice move of late too, but are not currently presenting quality entry points for swing longs.

On the short side, the credit card space is on my radar. AXP MA V are short ideas on any further weakness.

In addition, DFS is a credit card play and a short setup, seen on the daily chart below. Under $57, and I would expect a sharp breakdown lower, undershooting the 50-day moving average.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

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Enjoy tonight’s video, and enjoy your evening. 

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Into the bell, I reduced overall exposure in my portfolio inside 12631. I am very heavy cash again, especially when it comes to exposure in equities. The market has an eerily slow feeling to it, perhaps reeking of complacency and a false sense of security in CAT CSCO IBM, etc. However, bulls remain resilient and spirited in terms of not permitting the S&P to breakdown.

I will discuss that and more in my video market recap after the bell.

See you there.

Two updates on some losing positions I had of late…

In case you missed it, last Friday I sold out of my bond short position. I had locked in a win on a piece of it but the final half turned into a relatively small loser as bonds have remain quite resilient.

On the first daily chart below, you can see TLT hovering near the all-important $109.34-36 area, just above. I expect this to be a huge battleground for the rest of the week to see if another leg higher is imminent, or instead if bond bears finally crack the code.  Overall, I am still looking to re-enter the short bond trade. But I simply need to see more of a reason to get involved.

And earlier today inside 12631 I covered my IBM short starter position for just over a 4% loss. The rotation into old tech firms since last week has been strong and remained so into today. The stock has made a solid comeback and is quickly gaining attention, though I still have my doubts as to whether it can lead the bull higher or indeed if its strength can even stick on its own merits. Still, losses need to be cut and kept contained.

The weekly chart for Big Blue, second below, shows a falling channel upside breakout. But I expect overhead supply to kick in soon from all those trapped buyers dating back to 2012.

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March came in like a lion and is going out like a sloppy but narrowing pattern on the SPY, seen on the zoomed-out 30-minute chart below.

As I write this, markets are bouncing off the lows. Still, many liquid momentum leaders are far from healed, including the biotech sector at-large, solars, and small caps. The close should indeed be an interesting one today.

I am looking to make some end-of-day decisions as to whether to hold my existing short positions or flatten out entirely, largely based on this afternoon’s price action.

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