FOMC Day / SPX in Descending Channel + Flagging
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 8:05 am
Thanks to everyone that watched the show last night. If you couldn’t, it’s in the Stocktwits.tv archives.
I am undecided on direction for today simply because we have the FOMC announcement today at 2:15PM. I don’t suggest trading prior to that announcement (if you are trading the indices). I suggest careful and decisive trading based on the reaction. The full reaction should take 30-45 minutes.
The SPX is in a downward channel. As the day progresses, note that we are near dual resistance levels (on the 10-day chart). We are forming a flag that is most clearly visible on the multi-month daily chart.
Great show last night. Will be watching more in future. Thank you for your excellent work.
thx coach
DEATH to the SPX channel
$82 oil today
Euro out of the wedge and back in the uptrend
We are looking to shake the reports and rip today - I’m long all 3
/CL @ 80.75 completed the break from the wedge (1 hour chart) and turned it into a channel/flag.
We now need a push above to confirm the move to 82. We’ll probably consolidate a bit here before the 10:30 number. We had one hell of an API surprise last night - IF the EIA numbers comes in right, we go even if the SPX/Euro only remains neutral.
Watch 82 though - HEAVY resistance here. IF we make it this time, I do believe we attempt to break it. Expect a thrust above 82 as stops get hit - momentum would be strong for a few seconds to a minute. Exit on that spike.
Remember - this is a BIG IF! Trade accordingly.
/ES second run to 50 sma
retox, what is the ticker for /CL on TOS?
/CL = /CL - the tick value is $10 per contract ($1 move = $1000)
/QM is a micro version of the same contract with a tick value of 12.50 per contract - ticks are 2.5 cents with this one so a $1 move = $500
If you’ve never traded oil before I can only say the volatility is VERY high. Today would be a great day to paper trade it - report days are always the most extreme.
thanks retox. i tried entering /CL and /QM as the tickers and nothing came up.
odd? click the arrow on the ticker box and go to the futures tab - you should see the list - you have to be approved to trade them but you should still be able to get the quote.
I see why….I was entering the ticker in the Prophet Chart. I assume that you’re using the regular TOS charts. Thanks for the info. Keep up with you trades!
Marine Exploration, Inc. (OTCBB: MEXP) has updated its website (www.mexp.biz) to
include pictures of recovered sunken treasure including gold and pearl jewelry,
silver fittings, and dynasty china.
Marine Exploration CEO Mark Goldberg comments, “The pictures uploaded to our
website are preliminary photos of a few pieces of sunken treasure that we just
found. They have not yet been inventoried or cataloged according to our Host
Country Contract. We have secured the treasure wreck site and are bringing the
R/V Hispaniola into port on the north shore for two days of provisioning and to
bring aboard additional treasure holding tanks. Burt Webber will then take the
team back to the wreck site to resume treasure recovery.”
Burt F-ing Webber !
You own some of this retox??? How did you find it?
Treasure hunting…not your everyday gold/silver play. Nice boat.
I’ve been in for a long time. I sold into the last rip in June and I basically park money here waiting for the lotto numbers to get hit. I sold a bunch on the last spike and I’ve been averaging in since. I’m long at .08 and my targets are secret - I own enough to at least slow it down on an uptrend.
They are supposed to be developing a reality show (should get attention) and they appear to have the right technology, experience, and political ties to make something happen some day.
tempted to have a bit….for entertainment….would actually watch that reality show!
Does MEXP have legal rights to the treasure I wonder.
yes - they are in tight with the Dominicans
Yo, JL. Caught the JL show last night. I think it’s pretty good. I like how you inserted opinions and comments on individual stock and market as a whole. I get bored from time to time and your advice to scan potential candidates during the boring time is great. LOL.
What’s your email address where I can send you request for next week?
just tweet it
WeeklyTA
Bought CVGI @ 4.90… good Class 8 truck orders
CMI, PCAR, NAV all trading higher, this should get a nice pop
Short $TRLG 22.70
Covered 1/4 $TRLG 22.06
Covered 1/4 $TRLG 21.81
Covered 1/4 $TRLG 21.73
heart stopping moment - my wife is drying her hair and her blow dryer caught on fire… lucky her hair was wet. holy F!!!
she ok???
perfect - I just about lost it though
thats nuts man.
short whoever made the blow dryer…
Covered final 1/4 $TRLG 21.76
NICE ONE TO START THE DAY CA!!!!
badass!
They just opened a store here (Orlando) just a few months ago and they are already talking about closing it - in a great mall with traffic.
MAJOR WIN.
Sold CVGI @ 5.04
You mean 5.40? That’s where I sold. Thanks, I followed you on this one.
SHAKING THE NUMBERS!!!! WINS ALL AROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey CA check out MSTR - too illiquid for you - but its sitting on gap support - waddaya think?
hey Kudlow - see you at the dollar funeral
cutting my Euro long in half @ .4833
+61 pips
insurance money only for a bad oil print
keeping /ES up up and away
/CL light long into the number with orders up above - need some voodoo - the market is RIPE-ASS-RIPE for a hard rip on a decent number
GOLDMAN BUYING HERE
/ES shorts trying to push lower so they can cover - beware fakeout
OIL WIN!
going for 1060 /ES
letting my oil F-L-O-W
money pouring in like I’m Saudi Arabia
Short $STEC 15.12
Covered $STEC 15.21
got class. bbl
BIG oil drawdown = high high high potential for 90% upside from here with a little Fed action.
RBOB action agrees
This is our resistance area - we need to blow through for a 2nd rip
81+
81+
Sentiment trumps decending channel and todays follow through if it holds which it should will signal a new run.
hell yes!
dumping more Euros .4837
+65 pips
out half /ES 1057.25
+10
FIG long ( no FLY, not you)
out, short TRLG at 21.94
Covered TRLG at 21.56
out my last chunk of Euros .4843
+71 pips
need to get out of this resistance sandwich on crude - SPX holding it back
getting flat /ES on the next push
out the rest of my /ES
1056
+8.75
scalping in and out of oil trying to average down - it appears we will have to wait for the FOMC - did not want to hold through but if I can avg down enough, I will.
I’m shorting = /QM scalps leaving my /CL open to earn on the downside
done scalping - position avg down to 78.73
that’s 2 rolls of extra thick Charmin on my ass for protection.
Retox,
I’ve been asked by Goldman BigSac to put you on notice that you are in violation of their “Just-Crumbs-for-Non-Partners” policy.
Cut the shit or you’ll be visited by black helicopters.
I’ll piss on their grave.
not the biggest Durden fan but it’s entertaining
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-view-goldmans-trading-perfection-and-statistical-improbabilities
back
Short RDN at 6.54
cover 6.35
hey CA what do you think of AZO for a short candidate? Bumping up against the 20 day…..
1052 /ES is a really important level today
almost willing to call it an invisible descending tri into 1052
Just broke the desc tri…if it clears 1055 again…run to 1060?
BTW find u r the blogger with the best track record(comparable to CA) …keep it up
Quiet chop probable as long as we hold 1052 area - scalpers tape.
Institutions are light long from the opening run-up with few buys since.
The only buys I’ve heard are to hold this area.
They have room to run like butter on a bun if the tape turns on them.
I really don’t have a feel for the reaction so I’m getting really light into the announcement. Good comments could be priced in already - it appears that currencies are stretched here. Bad news, on the other hand, could really hurt.
CA is a better trader - he nails practically everything with little or no risk. He has far more discipline than I and that is the number 1 key to success. His style is also repeatable and teachable.
I am good at managing trades to make them work even on a bad entry and I overtrade at times. I do also take A LOT of risk so please be very careful listening to me.
can’t remember the last time I saw Euros trade this tight on a day like today - 14 pip range since 10:45
Short $AIG 36.31
well done
reactions are too volatile
trading too thin - scalpers are the only ones left
GS having gap fill reaction
Paper does NOT want ES below this area
Cov $AIG 36.30
Long GRMN at 27.77
out at 27.82
Short $HGSI 26.75
ready to blow the range out for the day
out some sweet crude 80.23
+50 ticks
I’m either a genius or an idiot to hold the rest - we’ll see (I’m leaning idiot).
Euro fresh high prints
Covered $HGSI 26.70
FOMC coming up
its out……………..no change in interest rates for a while
goldman shorting
how do u know goldman is shorting?
I’m doing blow with their hookers while they work your tape
covered 47 I think + about 6
I was just makin’ up a joke
audio feed from the spoos pit
got that last long too - holding
out 1056.5
+6.5
helicopters
out /CL 80.50
+77 ticks - genius
short /ES w/G-man from 1053
will cover w/them
Short $HGSI 26.58
JL, are you still looking for the bounce from a few days ago?
or have you reset the approach and reassess for the next move? I am referring to the swing by the way.
we’s done and bounced
Cov $HGSI 26.59 - too early
CA, thought on YRCW ?
none
still not yet for swing trades today?
now in oil for fresh high prints
out half .75
+10
out final
.76
+11
STRETCHED!
floor session was over - I usually have a time bar to mark it but didn’t do it today with the Fed.
rookie mistake
ALWAYS have time bars for reports and sessions
Sensibly, long rates way up.
shorting if ES fails
GOTCHA
cover 53.50
+2.5
my right claw is all shrink up and cramped from holding the damn mouse
That’s why I only occasionally trade futures. (Sometimes I like to urinate.)
no joke - I’ve had some expensive breaks.
this tape was like a stock with an earnings announcement, an accounting issue, and a buyout all in the same day
Oh no, its your drinking hand!!! Awesome trades retox!!!! Can’t keep track of all the coin.
no worries - I’ve got a bag of straws
Short $HGSI 26.50/51
Covered $HGSI 26.57
Short $TRLG 20.93
Covered half $TRLG 20.63
Covered 1/4 $TRLG 20.50
told you to watch 1052
sweet breakdown
more more
cover 1046.5
+4
whoa! fresh low print - bears running it - I really expected 1046 to hold
we should see a bounce 1044 area but I’m staying out
gman selling
fugin ugly - 1042 yesterday close - final hope
Covered final 1/4 $TRLG 20.25
Short $HGSI 26.34/35
SPY chart all fucked up now… getting close to putting on swing shorts.
P.S. there is news expected either late today or tomorrow… it’s the Senior Lending Officer Report, it’s expected to be rough… hint why banks were underperforming all day
short DTG $17.98
covered at 18.05
Covered $HGSI 26.33/34
swing long overnight
/ES 1044
will figure out the tgt later
it’s all over but the crying
Long?
yes
OH YES - tiny bounce - we held the close from yesterday - I like it - and we did NOT have fresh lows on that push (from the overnights)
god damn - got my first target
raising 2nd
46.50 & 48
small targets with 8 contracts
1st hit 46.5
+2
2nd target tbd in the next 4 minutes
out 47.5
+3.5
should hold - couldn’t resist locking
WOOOOOOOWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE…
one of my best days this year!
Fucking tape….they brought it down to 1046…took it upto 1057 and brought it down to fucking 1040
Fucking Goldman fuckers. How the fuck do the Jamie boys/merill/morgam/solomon fuckers let them get away with it. If they are proxy PPTers, this must be a bear trap for people…before it rips up tomorrow again?
Tomorrow:
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
8:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
8:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
mark your charts bitches
Retox - you were AMAZING today.
Awesome how different markets are being traded and money is being made everywhere.
Man, I just wish I could hook you on futures - you would run the world with your skills.
I’ve learned so much from you CA - even though it looks like I do nothing like what you do - Thank you SO MUCH!
Here’s my take on the tape today:
my comment from 1:09pm: “I really don’t have a feel for the reaction so I’m getting really light into the announcement. Good comments could be priced in already - it appears that currencies are stretched here. Bad news, on the other hand, could really hurt. ”
Result: we ran up and sold the expected news - just like we did through earnings. On various timeframes this can be read in several ways.
The world did not end and the market is not dead. We just need more crack!
Long rates are hinting that soon we’ll have to pay for our crack and not get it free - as is our right as Americans.
crack and money grow on trees here - deny deny deny
Hey Retox,
Good job man on the trading man. I ‘m just trying to follow a bit what futures you are trading. For your futures trading such as /CL and /ES, are you trading only the prompt month contracts? I’ve never traded futures before, but would like to get into it. Right now just trading FX, options and stocks. Thanks!
Keith
No idea what size account you are dealing with or what your experience etc. is but I would start with the most liquid commons.
/ES - E-mini S&P - $12.50 per 1/4 point move (1 tick)
/6E - Euro futures - $12.50 per pip
/CL - Crude oil futures - this one is VERY volatile - $10 per penny move (1 tick)
Yes, I typically only trade the front month contract. By entering the symbol above, most brokers will automatically assign the front month - you will have to add the month/year code to go out. Please paper trade them first to get used to the volatility.
There are 2 Micro-size contracts that you might want to look at:
/M6E - micro Euros - I think it’s about $1 per pip (about $10000 worth of currency)
/QM - micro crude oil - reduces the volatility for longer time frames / scale-in / scale-out / building a position / etc. $12.50 per tick (1 tick is 2.5 penny moves) so this one is $500 per buck move vs. $1000 per buck for the full-size contract
Just stay far away from gold & nat gas at first - actually, they should have a micro nat gas contract soon.
Good luck - I’m happy to help.
Retox, that is some sick trading there.
I just started trading /ES, for a scalp here and a scalp there. fun stuff.
I hope to kick it up a notch and start killing it like you, soon. Did you have CA mentor you, or just pick up his swagger from the blog?
I’ve traded for years and I’ve always done “okay”.
Everything exploded when I moved away from EVERY BS indicator I ever used and learned simple chart patterns.
I’ve been quietly reading his blog and his other “stuff” around the internets about since he started.
My charts are OHLC (no candles) with volume along with S&R levels that I keep up with every morning.
Important long-term trendlines are one color, shorter term are in another. Short term lines get deleted at the end of every day to reduce clutter. I them go back and adjust long term lines for every time frame.
Time levels (vertical lines) are in for open, close, all reports, etc - anything I need to be reminded of.
The fundamental change from BS indicators to utter simplicity (CA) is what made it all hit.
I did not take his class because I was already “getting it” by the time he started offering it. I have no doubt at all though that he can teach almost anybody to make money.
Agreed, I have stopped using BS indicators too. My IB account doesn’t display candles so I have been working with OHLC charts and volume as well.
S&R levels, trendlines, chart patterns, plus the occasional fib retractment seem to click for me. I need a LOT more practice, and I can’t say I’m ‘getting it’ just yet… but inching closer by the trade.
Thanks for sharing your setup.
Every time I see your avatar, I imagine that kid running over and grabbing a grip of cash from the pockets of old men in burlap hoodies and velcro shoes, then whacking them on the shins with his pimp cane.
that’s my little boy from halloween last year - we got one hell of a response from that one.
Thanks Retox,
Thats very helpful. What about margin requirements when buying/selling? I will have to ask you more questions but will try to follow you and learn…
Margin really depends on the broker but I’ll give you rough numbers. Each broker might have slightly higher requirements for an overnight trade. Maint. margin is about 50% of the initial requirement (again depending on the broker). There are no interest fees on the margin.
/ES $6000 margin - 50x leverage ($50 per point move)
/CL $6000 margin - 1000x leverage ($1000 per $1 move)
/QM $2700 margin - 500x leverage ($500 per $1 move)
/6E $6000 margin = 125,000 EUR/USD Forex - $12.50 per pip w/1 pip spreads
/E7 mini Euro $2700 margin = 62,500 EUR/USD Forex - $6.25 per pip w/1 pip spreads
/M6E micro Euro $600 margin (I think) = 16,500 EUR/USD Forex - $1.25 per pip
I pretty much have the opinion that the margin should really be at least 2 or 3 times what it is to avoid blowing out an account. I have a friend who found a broker that let him trade the /6E Euro futures with a $500 account. So he’s throwing down 125,000 Euros with $500 and he blew it out on the FIRST TRADE. I so tried to beg him not to trade it.
You can get more info & trade hours (each on is dif’t) here:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_contract_specifications.html
Really glad you’re doing so well. So much winning going on here on the CA blog.