We’re still in a range, meaning, don’t go crazy trying to predict direction and more importantly, betting heavily on what you believe will be the future direction of the market. I have no idea what will happen which is why I take things day-by-day.
In the 1-month chart, make note of the orange ovals. This is where major breakouts and breakdowns have been occurring. Everything else is a waste of time.
Also, today is the last day before a 3-day weekend. There will be low volume making it not worth trading (vs. the regular days I trade).
I’ll be in NYC (Financial District) for the weekend. Have a good one.
Good advice CA. We know guess on direction.
Enjoy NYC !
we need to SC again
Thank you.
CL overnight trade results:
68.14 – 1/3rd position +.14 (hit/sold) +$280
68.48 – 1/3rd position +.48 (hit/sold) +$960
68.78 – 1/3rd position +.78 (traded to 68.70 / target not hit / manual close right now at 68.68) +.68 +$1360
never traded below my 68.00 entry during this trade. $2600 total
ES did trade to 1005+ as expected (1007)
6E made it to 1.4290 (called 1.4275 safely and 1.4300 possibly)
CL broke a week-long downtrend line (15 min chart starting Sunday) before the number and bounced off of it during the spike down on the announcement.
Bullish
If the SPX move is held and/or improved from here, we should add another $1 to crude today easily.
bought 68.00
sold 68.10
bought 68.00 again
out 68.17
in 68.10
out 68.18
done for the long weekend – have a great day everybody
no fucking clue where we go now…
1 more bought 67.72
added 67.54
added .14
NG going up as CL goes lower
yes – everything said that sell-off was just not right. strong stomach to fight it but the retrace was going to be there.
NG repeating what it did on the 21st/24th – spike below the channel (1 hour chart for the last month) with a nice snap back the next day.
Out 67.80 +.34
Was avg in at 67.46. was a falling wedge that broke to the downside on ES & 6E weakness – overdone – not unusual for /CL – usually makes for a really nice snap back.
Continued to add instead of taking a loss with ES above 1000 and Euro at 1.4200 (fairly strong support). CL was the odd-man-out in the group.
Hey retox – you trade ES pretty often? Also r u on twitter?
I did trade a lot of ES & ZB, & GC over the past year – recently moved to 6E & CL to follow the volatility. I always watch ES and 6E but I trade markets on reports or, if I do well with a market for a few days, I stick with it until I get burnt (like 6E for the past couple of weeks).
No Twitter. Hard enough to do this sometimes.
Oh okay – how about IM? anyways just seeingi f u posted real time trades on es? … or wanted to coordinate on color for ES in AH
Not exactly in the realm of day trading, but I’ve picked 2 addition stocks for my long term income and growth portfolio:
PETD – oil and gas (screw UNG – glad I never bought it)
CRXL – high end biotech Netherlands
Other major holdings are
HLCS
TSTR
TMB (income, inflation protection)
ERF (income / foreign, inflation protection)
CPNO (income)
CHL – foreign / china
APWR – foreign / china
Right now 1/3 of my portfolio is in this camp and is “fully invested” – my goal is to keep 2/3 available in a trading portfolio for day / swings (no margin). A three day lockout means I’ve got to have a rotation approach to keep funds available. Really frustrating when I’m looking at a ton of cash on the sidelines I can’t touch.
I’ll likely be scaling back my trading portfolio to 30% long today from it’s current 75%.
Buy low and sell high my friends, have a great break. Nice Retox – making money while you sleep…love it.
TMB is foreign (brazil), high dividend = (inflation protection of a sort)
I like CPNO, don’t mind if I join you doc?
damn, APWR may b/o, CHL / china trade has been real good to me under 50 and is holding true.
ARM
US demand for filters to reach $12.4 billion in 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS116819+03-Sep-2009+BW20090903
Thanks DannyCali — have a client in this market, and they are doing well, despite the economic schitstorm.
Question to me now is: Do I want to drop $5k for that report…. ?
____________
Nothing doing…
CTIC’s big day… where are all my fellow bagholders, lol
Watch for trading halt… if the news is good they’ll turn it into a trader’s party…
CREE BTFO wants to break thru 38 and get to 40 next week…LED revolution taking place.
Moving again. Takeover rumors on this one, but they seem to pop up all the time.
either huge short squeeze on CREE or someone on Wall street heard something
6,000 40 calls trading this AM
something is happening….buyouts been rumored in the past…
JAZZ b/o
the are buying Calls like I have never seen before in CREE
1,000 at a time
2,000 40s bought in last ten minutes
/NG short 2.592
Whoops, posted this on yesterday’s post:
So retox, correct me if im wrong, euro breaking out from the flag now would lead to a + move in oil which the oil market doesn’t seem to be anticipating. This could either be an indication that a euro rally would fizzle out or that I should go long on CL if the euro manages to break out and hold. (6E broken down now but consider the question asked as of 10:07)
PS: ES in a ascending wedge into resistance at 1007, I’m short here
or not
-.5
The euro falling vs the dollar would imply that the dollar is strengthening which would lead to a fall in stocks as they would become more expensive. The correlation between oil and the dollar have broken apart and oil is more correlated to the equities market now rather than the dollar. Why? bc as the economy fails to recover from the worst recession since great depression’s recession …..
[this sounds like a joke to me, a recovery just as bad as the great depression would only last 2 years..the recession began in 2007 with that hugh sell-off in china that ripped through the global markets, remember china fell 300 pts in one day and that was unheard of back then]
…..People will consume fewer goods, unemployment will continue to rise, there will be fewer dollars and thus people will begin to save on gas and oil. So as the euro falls against the dollar, the US markets will begin to sell fall and will that oil will follow.
I think a faster recovery in markets is related to how connected the world is today – communications and the ability to trade with computers give hyper-speed to these corrections. Think about how “in the dark” people were in 1929 – simple lack of news and communcation would stoke the fear.
You are correct that USD helps to price stocks. Inflation would push equities up. Nobody really talks much about that when they talk about this rally being bullshit and the next sentance is usually something about how the dollar will be worthless… well, buy some equities then – the rally isn’t bullshit.
The other side is that the USD is considered safe so – when the equity markets sell off, there is a move to the USD vs. foreign currencies (both to buy bonds & sell the “risk” of other currencies).
SPX up today. Currencies & oil are not buying the broad market move.
On currencies and oil – there appears to be a reversal of the bias to quickly reach to the upside with broad market strength. Currency & oil traders are not at all convinced of what’s going on today. I believe that played out last night with the Euro not hitting 1.4300 and then falling back to 1.4200. Oil should have easily touched $69 on the close yesterday or at least the 1009 ES move this AM – especially after it broke the week-long downtrend overnight.
The thought over the past couple weeks was that the USD could actually gain on very convincing market strength – this would be caused by foreign traders looking to get into the US stock market if they thought we would recover first – they would have to buy dollars (driving the price up) to buy our equities. The other cause would be anticipation that the Fed would see inflation so they would reign in the free money train.
This, to me, is NOT the cause today – I’m reading this as confusion and hesitation.
It is more dangerous to trade days like this – you can often have a violent move if these markets start to correlate again especially with thin volume & a holiday weekend.
and there it was – everybody agrees again (for now).
Bought LTXC @ 1.26
SAY
JAZZ outa here.
Nice call Doc!
out 1/4 JAZZ 8.23
1/4 JAZZ 8.15
CRAP! SPPI has been halted. WTF!!!!
Damn, STAR b/o – no vacation for me yet.
Out of THC overnighter with about 5%
Smallest b/o for JAZZ to date was $1.50, the second was over $2, more to go.
Craptastic – just as i was posting!
1/4 out at 8.36
Trailing stop on the last 1/4 – gotta run – hope some of you caught that sweet pre labor day gift.
Had to keep watching stopped out at 8.66
I’ve made so much money on JAZZ this year…I’ll be buying it again for the next run. Look at that chart over the past few months, it’s practically like clockwork. Nice product, great pipeline.
Added more LTXC @ 1.28
i am looking for a pop upwards in the markets any minute now…what do u guys think
I’m Banking Coin with swing play LTXC today (bot @ 1.03) and still holding …
SPPI – wild ride
if anyone’s in NYC (financial district/Soho) and wants to meet up, shoot me an email. I’ll be there till Sun night.
Have a good trip man!
Sold half LTXC @ 1.37
nice catch PA, if I only had more time and cash I’d been with you on that fine ride.
Back because I’m such a loser…
Bought PETD at 13.55 for my long term portfolio – NG seems to be worthless now for some reason. We heat with gas here in Maine – I’ll bet my bill is no different than last year (BIG).
Some additional logic to the buy might be all that money in UNG will have to go somewhere when it’s closed out like DSO…
still at over 70% long – not cool by the standards here, I may still try to trim a bit.
RE: SPPI
Sept. 7
FDA approval decision date for Spectrum Pharmaceuticals'(SPPI Quote) Zevalin, a drug for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Wow …. FDA ahead of schedule … SPPI selling on news
10:47AM Spectrum Pharma announces FDA approves ZEVALIN expanded label as part of first-line therapy in treatment of follicular non-hodgkin’s lymphoma
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#sppi
maybe someone will buy it… think i’ll go get a happy meal
LTXC, sold other half @ 1.36…. not sure if things breakout here since we close in an hour… dont think people are interested today…. i mean for god sakes, even CA isnt trading hahaha.
Off to vaca!
Enjoy the weekend everyone!
Damn! I’m killing it today … just noticed that my KOG is up 26%
ok maybe one more…. EXXI imminent
Nice one!
looking for CL to start basing above 67.52 for long entries
Great White’s spotted near Chatham sandbars chop-slapping young seals …
Now back to your regularly scheduled trading
FNSR is popping it’s turtle head out of the cup… watch this elven hero search for the lost Silmarils!
(Okay, tell me I’m the only one out of all you geeks who’s noted the Tolkienesque name of this thing?)
_______
OCLR
muhahah your all welcome for that reversal signal…dji went from +6 to +85 since i posted that..money in the bank
twas good – what were you looking at?
I didn’t catch it until 12:03 with oil
S&P possibly forming head and shoulders top looking at 3 month chart.
MERC getting ready
Some of you guys are just boneheads…. talking up CTIC… enjoy the weekend after that stomping you guys just took.
This blog teaches principles, and you guys just dont follow them. Might as well go to vegas or buy a lottery ticket. If you dont learn principles….. you wont have a long career in this game.
Well said, Pissant. I need to hear that too. My emotions get in the way of my learning.
never fall in love with a whore
Hah… for some reason i was thinking we closed early today…. whoops.
Maybe we’ll have some more late day trades
JAZZ !!!!!!!!
Terranova talking his book again – said buy gold right at the top for the day. “it’ll be 1000 in 30 minutes” Nope. Funny CNBC. “Entertainment First!”
Whoa, Mr. Golden Tan Killer – down 50 ticks since your call.
SQNM runs into the close, imo… I wouldn’t want to be short over the weekend if I were short now…
disclosure: long 5.41…
momo
nat gas – j-hook
thx to CA ,by the way, for that one – I’ve used the pattern before but I’ve been more confident with it since – just pulled 13 ticks out of nat gas – sloppy pattern so I got out fast
u get my msg?
no, just checked – using the @yahoo address??
er dont have your yahoo email … lol
sorry, a couple people do – I thought you did for some reason.
message from above – just got it.
I’ve really stayed away from ES lately – lack of volatility. I take CL, 6E, GC, & NG trades and always watch ES as an indicator. There are times, like last night, where I feel very good about ES direction overnight (or its ability to hit a price target) based on action during the day session.
I took the trade using CL instead. For one, I got a better entry – it didn’t wake up to the ES move for a minute or so giving me the whole trend but the main reason was the profit potential. I think I called 1005+ ES while ES traded 1002 – that would have been a 3 point move ($50 per contract). The CL targets I called were worth $140, $480, $680 per contract – and I figured I only needed the 1005+ ES move to get them.
I only take swings like this once or maybe twice a week. They have to be perfect set-ups – 90% up/down days, days that end a downtrend like yesterday, etc. I don’t use stops – ever – and I want to sleep at night knowing it will work. I just started taking these swings again as the markets have stabilized.
Other than that, I really don’t trade the overnights. The best I can tell you there is to watch the time & sales to see where the big money is going (10+ contract chunks – sometimes in rapid succession). Figure out the bias based on the previous day and any reports for the AM. Watch Asian & European markets closely. Without good guidance from these inducators, it can be a crap shoot – breakouts can fail just as easily as they work.
OK, so I’ve been following here a couple of months now, let’s see if I can try one:
MCD
Seems to be breaking out of a symmetrical triangle, and just broke through the 200 MA and the 50 MA.
Total newbie, so take it with a grain of salt…
Assuming you are on a 1 hour chart? Broke out today from 5 day downtrend – on VERY low volume.
1 day chart – 56.40-56.60 area (it’s a declining line so gets lower every day) is resistance – still in a downtrend from the breakaway gap on the 23rd.
Upside looks limited – downside looks like ~$1
Actually I was looking at the 3-month/daily. But yeah, now that you tell me what to look for, I can see it.
Nevermind…
Back to the sidelines!
it’s the only way to learn…
In MTSN at 1.9
No volume , Frog. .. may have to wait for a while … hope I am wrong and you get a spike volume winner!
IVAN … slooooowwwwww momentum! But consistently going up … okay volume.
Whoa, great trading day JAZZ still airborne… HLCS update – just got off the phone with sales and I feel much better (shouldn’t that always be the case). Stanford loves the machine, yadayadayda. They take a 50% deposit with balance after delivery. Wouldn’t tell me how many orders pending, but got the impression they are working both research and commercial leads – that’s where the speed is key given burn rates of these ventures.
Holding the line is the bottom line.
Did I get a whiff of gas? Some of my recent long term picks in the sector are kicking it up hard.
jazz bfo again!
the only hope that nat gas does not die on Tuesday:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200995.html
Does anyone has StrategyDesk Formula day trading? Please share. Thanks
STAR and APWR can launch from here, holding ’em both.
BPOP imminent, bought @ 2.29
ULTA set up to go
GRMN – expects “very good” quarter 3:20pm
TRID looks like a b/o off the flag
Last chance to pick up BPOP
in GRMN 32.50
fucking lucky on that fill
out half GRMN 32.66 +.16
out 2nd half GRMN 32.73 +.23
whats ur email retox?
This is ugly!
https://ris.rois.com/PU8Wqj0UbB1X25rZLyjDEPloYEG949xBiJ8Xa0-jS0Yxq/CTIB/RI3APINEWS?FORMAT=HTML&TEXT=1252093409nN04165085
Oil
https://ris.rois.com/PU8Wqj0UbB1X25rZLyjDEPloYEG949xBiJ8Xa0-jS0Yxq/CTIB/RI3APINEWS?FORMAT=HTML&TEXT=1252093325nN04164137
i’m BeeBoppin!
Sold half BPOP @ 2.36
Will go home flat over the long weekend, despite this stock breaking out and likely going higher Tuesday
Have a great weekend everybody – now go win with your families. Decided to keep the longs – 65%
Liking STAR and APWR – both have a bunch of short, APWR has a lot – could be setups for squeezeathons.
Out of LTXC @ $1.34 …
Lots of stem cell shit next week … buying as much ACTC now for spec play around 15 cents
Hows that CPNO working for ya CD? Most of the “long term” holdings went up big today! Nice call on BPOP PissAnt – a lot of good stuff here today.
CPNO doing great man, thanks!
I’m going to swing too. daytrading is tough when you’ve got a full time job.
Have a great long weekend man
Thoughts on the weight loss stocks:
#1 OREX – best combo of % weight lost and safety
#2 VVUS – may have highest % loss but safety has been questioned
#3 ARNA – the safest of the three but % loss has been disappointing
The play:
While I like OREX the best there is no catalyst that I know of on the horizon … VVUS I like cause they have what may be the most effective though potentially the most dangerous … ARNA is the play for the next week or two on the basis that VVUS is due to report on their Phase III trials and if there is any bad news regarding safety ARNA will be the main beneficiary … in the end they may all get approved but might as well try to Bank Coin when possible and ARNA has the best reward to risk basis on the impending VVUS news.
Have a great Labor Day guys and no trading hot dogs for cheeseburgers or steak sandwiches at my grill … you ordered it, you eat it!
Just found the FACT buyout news … SOB!
I was just looking at PDLI – FACT – TRBN and put FACT on my watch list as a result of their relationship with BIIB yesterday.
Makes me think I should revisit ELN – TTHI – BIIB connection asap.
Love the smell of napalm in the morning. Helicos BioSciences Corporation (NASDAQ:HLCS) today announced that the RIKEN Yokohama Institute Omics Science Center (OSC) has agreed to purchase four Helicos™ Genetic Analysis Systems.
Smells like… Victory.
__
Picked up some BPOP @ 2.40
Bought RTK @ 2.00
Liking the looks of my TRID so far…
g