The SPX is in a neutral range. Today, the market established a 3rd point on the bottom range, giving the appearance of a bull flag with a 15 degree tilt. As long as the present levels hold, this is bullish. Another thing to note is that the market is forming a rising wedge…within a larger rising wedge as it can be seen on the 10-month chart. This is bearish for the intermediate-term. Therefore, focus must be placed on the high probability setups with the least positive correlation with the market.
I’m pretty impressed by the community. You guys are playing the same stocks I’m playing…despite that fact that you don’t know what I am playing. I kind of calmed down on posting trades to see if it would make any difference to my ability to focus on my actual trade execution. There isn’t much of a difference, but it is time consuming so I’ll try to post what I can if time permits.
Some of you ask dumb questions. Questions like “Are you still going to blog when in school?”. Duh. I have 3 days out of the week free, too. In fact, I skipped my first day of classes to make 9% yesterday (and I’m sure you would too). Also, a few of you ask me questions with answers that can be found in my educational articles. Stop being lazy and get reading. I don’t have time to answer questions like that.
Finally, I’m looking at a variety of potential setups this week, most of which have been played multiple times over the past few months: Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. [[AHT]] , [[ANPI]] , [[BCRX]] , CIT Group Inc. [[CIT]] , Capstone Turbine Corporation [[CPST]] , [[DVAX]] , [[EDAP]] , Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] , Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] , [[HEB]] , Human Genome Sciences [[HGSI]] , [[INO]] , [[JAZZ]] , [[MRNA]] , Novavax, Inc. [[NVAX]] , [[OCLS]] , [[ONTY]] , Quantum Corporation [[QTM]] , Repros Therapeutics Inc. [[RPRX]] , Rentech, Inc. [[RTK]] , [[SCLN]] , Tenet Healthcare Corporation [[THC]] , Unisys Corporation [[UIS]] , XOMA Limited [[XOMA]] , and others that may just randomly pop up during the day.
Another note: I am NOT taking more students, so stop signing up. I have enough people for the next 2+ years, and I guarantee you that I won’t be doing this for 2 years.
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good morning, hope no one is holding ACAD!
CA…nice post-good info…first day always sucks anyway…
anyone know of a good way to screen or scan for stocks moving or gapping in the premarket?
Not directly connected to the style here, but I’d remind anyone here holding some long term positions that the China trade is looking pretty good again after the pullback – in particular, names that have been richly rewarding in the past to me; CHL, APWR, STP, and of course LDK and JASO. Also IF the market decides to rocket up, a lot of the shippers (they’ve been quiet – too quiet) are standing with a foot over the cliff and one on the pad; DRYS, EXM
YGII will begin trading on Nasdaq on Thursday, Chinese growth stock, worth watching. Don’t know much about the company.
EDAP
INO fixing to rip at the open. I’m long from yesterday.
yes…me as well along with HEB and AVII..take a look
nice, both look great
CA, where are the educational articles?
NVAX
NVAX, BCRX, SVA, all up premarket
lot of buys, no time to post all; INO, NVAX, DRYS, APWR, BCRX
bought $RTK @1.97
ANDS breaking
Bought $ANPI $1.74
bought 1/4 position HLCS more at 2.98 – last of my available cash for the day
BEXP this morning 7.66
BQI
oil short to 70.3
added avg 70.9
ZZ breaking out. still long from a while ago
sold at $2.7215. sick of looking at it
+.75; Out for the day. Good luck all.
RAD moving higher
anybody got in RVP?
got my target from above 70.30 on oil short (CL).
+.60 ($2400)
I LOVE YOU CRUDE OIL!
covered the last 1/3rd of my Euro short from last night 1.4269
+70 pips ($1750 – forex not futures)
should have covered earlier but I kept it as a small hedge for a crude oil long that I took this morning
100% cash
90% cash
4% hookers
3% liquor
2.6% sandwiches
.4% loose change
rofl…
been sitting out the past 5 days or so on the sideways market. Got in FAZ about 20 minutes about at 24.30 as it was trying to break out. Will let it run if the market continues to be weak.
nice strong clear breakout of the 5 day trading range on FAZ.
anywhere near 1000 SPX and I’m all kind of long ES – we will retrace from there at least once
crude at support
Euro near support / USD at resistance
long entries coming / short covering at these levels should give us a pop
waiting for 1000
+ .25 on half of oil long
hearing rumor from friends:
“Just heard more chatter to the sell off – FINRA considering raising margin requirements on ETF’s…mkt is just very very tired”
just covered my C short over the last 5 mins
C breaks 4 bucks easy….in a week
what a joke, you’ll get your head ripped off
you laughing ??
they should raise margins on those or require additional approvals like futures/forex. too damn dangerous for most.
nice trade on C short
Added SVA for the third time at 10.55
out half ES 1003.5 +3
+.53 on the 2nd half of oil long
out 2nd half ES long 1004.5
+4
another attack at 1000 should happen soon
no money on it either way
AIG worth 10bucks…sanford bernstein…that would help me out quite a bit…ha..!
no, CNBC says it’s going to 100 remember.
yeah..i know i almost fell off my chair when they said that..fucking twits…
what now bitches???
same ol’ daily bullwhipping coming up is my guess, scare the longs, rape the shorts, take money from everyone.
I should be at least 4% booze, my wife says no hookers for me…
Stuck – until we move solidly below 1000, bulls will say sideways is bullish, bears will say it’s continution.
“my wife says no hookers for me…”
just tell her you support single mothers
hmmm, didn’t work…I now have welts…
oh, and it’s better to ask for forgiveness than it is to ask for permission – remember that next time.
Euro could give up to the 50dma rather quickly (70 pips down from here) if we see a break of 1000 SPX.
ready for that short just in case…
Retox – you trade EUR / USD? I mainly trade the ES mini but would like to try my hand at some currency but can’t find a decent broker. I trade minis on ninjatrader thru mirus futures with a zenfire feed.
I use Thinkorswim for both futures & forex. I’m fairly happy with them – we have our moments. They will let you open an account and papertrade to try their platform without funding.
I trade futures almost exclusively but I will trade forex if I enter at or near the close since futures trading stops between 5pm & 6pm and I don’t like to get locked out. The only other benefit to trading forex over currency futures is that you can better manage the size of the trade (and therefore manage risk much better) – a currency futures contract is worth about 130k in currency (requires about $4500 margin) and moves at $12.50 per pip. If you trade forex, you can get in with $10,000 chunks – you are then $1 per pip per $10k. Depending on the broker you can find 10x to 1000x leverage (Thinkorswim is 100x so $100 margin is required for each $10k forex position). This is especially beneficial if you have a more moderate-sized account and you want to be able to scale in and out of positions.
Liquidity is best in /6E (Euro futures). Spreads are almost always 1 pip. Other currency futures can get really nasty (3 to 5 pip spreads or worse in the afterhours) so I usually stay away. You will also find that the EUR/USD correlations to oil and the SPX are very helpful in guiding your trades.
I also find it better to get really good at one currency – learn how it reacts to other markets, figure out support/resistance, watch 1 minute, 1 hour, and 1 day charts for trends. Currencies are much more level driven than most other markets. Much respect is given to key price levels, support/resistance, trendlines, and sometimes moving averages.
I’ve moved heavily to currencies and crude oil in the past few weeks for the added volatility vs. ES. In general, I would say currencies & commodities are only suited to traders who have a very good to excellent ability to spot and catch short-term trends and who can stomach and manage trades that can quickly turn violently against you without using stops (the volatility alone dictates that stops will kill your account). You simply have to be right more than maybe 70% of the time and you have to know, when the trade turns against you, if you should cut it or add to it (critical in these markets).
Before I move into a new market I’ll paper trade it at least 200 or so trades until I start to “see” where it is going and how far it will run on most trades.
I can also say that your ES trades will benefit tremendously if you learn forex, crude oil & bonds and you use the charts at the same time. You can watch oil, currency and bond markets anticipate or reject moves in the broader markets.
I’d be happy to answer more questions. Just go slow on currencies before you throw money at them.
I really appreciate the advice. I am thinking about paper trading the /6E for a while and see which strategies align with my ES strategies and which do not.
Thanks again!
Bought CTIC 1.52
Me too – 1.51
Oops – CIT that was
Sorry
…
all sectors look to be heading towards neckline of a potential head and shoulders development (far fetched I know!), HUI looks bullish
CA,
when you say “focus must be placed on the high probability setups with the least positive correlation with the market” does this mean you’re scanning for long setups with negative Beta?
Still riding FAZ. Moving my stop up as it has progressed.
cnbc skanks should go broadcast live from the center of the wildfires in Cali, while drenched in fresh jet fuel..
Sept. 1
The Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee of the Food and Drug Administration meets to review Genzyme’s(GENZ Quote) Clolar and Vion Pharmaceuticals'(VION.OB Quote) Onrigin, both as a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia.
VION is a pos … don’t be caught holding this after the close unless you want to get ACAD’d
Sept. 2
The same FDA advisory committee meets to review Allos Therapeutics'(ALTH Quote) pralatrexate for peripheral T-cell lymphoma.
FDA approval decision date for Endo Pharmaceuticals'(ENDP Quote) Nebido, a long-acting testosterone replacement therapy.
Risk/Reward on ALTH .. been in a 5-8 trading range for nearly 2 yrs
The Euro does look like it’s headed to the 50dma. I was in and out of oil a few times so I missed the SPX 1000 entry on this – it caused an almost 50 pip drop in the Euro within minutes. Beyond the 50 day, there are a couple of solid trend lines that should give support (1 day chart) for quick long entries.
I read this as bearish for the markets given the very strong resistance the USD has faced in the past several days.
That said, swing shorts here scare the shit out of me. If this SPX dip is bought, the Euro should rip very hard to the upside very quickly. Way too much risk to catch 50 or so pips.
Just got back from business meeting, what the hell happened? Only open position looking good is APT. Most other positions hit stop loss.
hint, use mental stop loss and stick with them
hitting your stops is a very profitable maneuver by your broker to eat up your commissions
anybody care to call the close?
alth
Bought $APT 5.8499
watching for 1003.50 SPX
would probbly trigger some short covering and a little rally with a 1005.75 1st target and a 1008.75 2nd target.
not saying we’ll get it but just in case
out $APT 5.81, in $AIG short 36.74
Matt(fat head) Nesto…Asshat of the Month..for September..1 day performance by this fucking goon is impressive for all short bus riders..
crude oil in a falling wedge – 5 min chart
cov $AIG 36.33
short $AIG 36.16
ARIA – EXEL – ALTH holding up well …. for biotechs
ARIA is set up nicely for tomorrow, imo
long since 2.27
HLCS melting further… what’s the word, Doc?
________
Just back in time to see my position(s) pummelled. Profit gods giveth and taketh (unless you’re CA). Glad I did take some profits yesterday on it. Would have been nice if it was more.
I just bought another full position at 2.40 – my prayers are these are the day traders and weak hands. I still like it a lot.
I’m not liking a weak close on it though…
short Euro 1.4217
cov $AIG 35.76
Euro cover 1.4209
+8 pips
SPX forming evening doji star on the 2 yr weekly. That bearish here??
Sold my FAZ at 26.48 (bought earlier today 24.30). Figured the late day push was a gift so I took it.
Short heavy $SVA 10.38/39/42/44 overnight
Disagree. I see parabolic breakout and symmetrical triangle on the hourly. If you want to short some biotech I would rather pick a weaker sister like BCRX for example.
you sir MarginClerk, must not know how to read charts…. assuming no news SVA will go down 10-15% straight…
Plus who cares what you think, you dont follow any set of rules, you are out buying CTIC @ 1.52… (for no reason whatsoever)… whats the chart tell you on that one.
Very well, if you know how to read charts please read the hourly chart of SVA with volume and tell us what you see. There is a good chance of news tomorrow at 8am. But it did not have any news today (an announcement of South Korean distributor of partnership with SVA does not count much, I think) and still rose 10% on falling market and sector – that’s a sign of strength. Why short the strongest stock in the sector when you can short many of the much weaker ones that are clearly breaking down?
If you did not change your mind on shorting SVA, don’t miss a good opportunity now after hours
at 10.80 or so
Don’t act like you know everything… you dont see all the new you little fish.
“01-Sep-2009 07:09 SVA Sinovac Biotech mentioned as new buy by Louis Navellier’s Global Growth newsletter ($9.71)
There were no new sell recommendations. Recall that Boryung Pharmaceutical also announced an exclusive deal with Sinovac for the sole distribution of H1N1 flu vaccine in South Korea. SVA is trading +14.3% to $11.10 on volume of 63K shares. “
Even though everyone makes mistakes, something deep in my gut says don’t side a bet against CA….
wow! what a call! f-in amazing
short Euro 1.4223
covered 1.4214
+9 pips
thanks CA!
VION: I warned ya!
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10592929/1/fda-panel-rejects-vion-leukemia-drug.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
SQNM > …. a researcher at Brown University called the rumor (an independent study by researchers at Brown University was going to released soon which would show Sequenom’s genetic prenatal test for Down syndrome to be highly sensitive) false, according to a story published Tuesday morning in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
nice call
PPHM making moves this morning! Awesome.
finally moving again, this needs to catch up with all the other biotechs. long and strong 30k plus 325k with friends
not a day trade, but CHL is just about at it’s 200d and has been a very good entry at this level if it holds.
ES testing the lows AH (992.25) for the fifth time as I post this, if it breaks down through it the next support would be the triangle on 8/19 (988-985)
Waiting for a confirmation following the open before I’ll short
This is why we wait.
I’ll take a short at SPX 1000 for a couple points (first time it tries only)
oil shorting at 67.85 / 67.81 area (trendline) for scalp.
Symbol?
/CL
dangerous – paper trade it first. if you are still around at 10:30 watch it for the inventory report – big fun.
it’s $10 per tick by the way.
fuck – got .01 away from my entry and sold off – twice.
almost not good enough
MarginClerk, i guess you need to shut your mouth… you come onto this board and have no respect, and just bash trades.
That SVA dropped 10+% this morning… and you were saying what yesterday??? Stop talking and go stick your head up your ass.
MarginClerk got owned by CA. how’s it feel?
Pwned like a biatch … so much 4 the haters
Incredible short SVA call CA. Quieted MarginClerk up right away this morning.
I love haters! That’s such a sweet thing to see, I wish I could see his reaction to CA’s call this morning, probably priceless
DVN – very nice move
Just F’in crushed C… knew the dumb retail holder would have 4.50 and 4.40 stops… that pressured the open.
Got lucky on the sell side @ 4.58…. better lucky than good
DRYS setting up nice – in a couple days ago, about even now.
Filled out some of my long term positions; CHL, ERF, CPNO, TMB
in DRYS hard at 3.82
I wish…5.82
Gotta focus on work, stops set over 5.70
Be winning…
Did anybody get into SAY?
SVA getting killed now
Bought BBI @ 1.06
Nice trade on BBI Pissant, was watching it too.
Also watching: MRGE, KV-A, BZ, NXG, and ACAD for a trade
Sold BBI @ 1.10… will revisit
Watching RBY… love that name
RBY excellent volume..above 3.28 close it pops
I wonder if Mr CA covered the SVA short yet.
Thing of beauty.
yes
Really incredible call. I watch it and sit back like WOW.
Back in BBI @ 1.10
Too busy to post real-time trades. Bought RBY and ABX mid-morning due to GLD breakout from symmetrical triangle with strong volume. Also bought small position of YGII. BZ looking good, but too late on that one.
Sold BBI @ 1.14
…. know i just missed the breakout, but i’m playing small ball, since we’re in a tight inside trading day in the markets.
SEPR!
Old news:
13:17 SEPR Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma seeks to buy Sepracor, says Nikkei ($21.66 +$3.63)
The company intends to start a $2.7B tender offer for the company according to Nikkei and will seek to make the company a wholly owned subsidiary.
Reference Link (subscription required)
ANOTHER DUMB QUESTION:
Sorry to bother any and all, but are there more “educational articles’ other than what is listed on the right side of this page toward the bottom. I need to figure this stuff out! Thanks for the info
TTWO at 10.83, 10.85
sold at 10.99, 10.98
NGD 3.51 hopefully a swing
…and HL at 3.13 for a swing
CLNE for a swing ….someone has to use all this Nat Gas that they’re giving away.
HUI looks bullish (mentioned in yesterday’s post), of course I’ve missed out on that move. I might be waiting for these gold plays to move back a bit and test support. I have a feeling the markets will hold these levels (975-1000) and then move higher to test resistance (1015), I still think we may be developing a head and shoulders top here (975 neckline). NG looks good here too, lots of MA support. But I’ll play this calmly and wait for support to be set before making a move (tough to do when things are moving so fast ). watching Oil here as well (hopping to hold above 60 in september). pre labour day volatility picking up, I hope we have a strong quick correction set a higher low and move up, no double dip please!
Lovin’ RBY
MarginClerk –
If you bet against me again and lose, I’m banning you from iBC for being fucktarded.
CA, sick call on SVA. now please, for all of us to admire….can you post yesterdays SVA chart along with your analysis that lead you to your position before close.
gracias!
if you read my short setups article, you would know why. The odds were exceptionally great in my favor.
Nice call on SVA.
BTW, MarginClerk was wrong and I didn’t see what he saw in the chart – – but I thought he was civil.
civil, but too sure of himself and giving incorrect technical reasons. He even suggested that I had a chance to cover while SVA was going to $11 after hours. This behavior reminds me of JOSH.
Hey Doc Sparks,
What do you think the odds on HLCS having a secondary are? I am sitting on an assholish amount of it and I think that is the only thing that could sink the ship (sans an announcement saying their product doesn’t work or some other type of silliness).
thanks
Been on my mind since the big run, but I have no idea – way too inexperienced to do more than guess – which you probably have already. Here’s some ramblings for what it’s worth.
Financials seem to show a real slow down in their burn rate, cash on hand looks to be enough for a quarter – not counting orders – the number of which I don’t know nor how much they get with the order. Seems like they could “make it”
But…how much would the insiders take home on a new issue vs. lose with the dilution – especially if the stock is fast tracking up now – I’m guessing the motivation is to gut it out if they are sitting on a pile of orders (which maybe could be used to get a bigger line from lenders) or a potential buyout.
Why wouldn’t they indicate deposits on orders taken if they had them – that bugs me some. If a buyout was in the air that would play a role too, but this is way over my current skill set to fully get.
I’m sticking to my basic thesis (for now) summed up; fastest car on the track wins the race, they have the fastest car, people with money like fast cars, blah blah….
Thanks Doc, just wondering what you thought about it. Me, I have no idea but I haven’t done the research. Seems to me they wouldn’t really be a big risk for a lender. If the machine performs as advertised, they will have more difficulty filling orders than finding people to buy their product. Not a bad place to be.
Some of you ask dumb questions. Questions like “Are you still going to blog when in school?”. Duh. I have 3 days out of the week free, too. In fact, I skipped my first day of classes to make 9% yesterday (and I’m sure you would too). Also, a few of you ask me questions with answers that can be found in my educational articles. Stop being lazy and get reading. I don’t have time to answer questions like that.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You misunderstood my question on SAY… I saw the pattern…just what tiped you off that it was going to be that day that it would BO, (sometimes those things flag like that for weeks)….thats all I was asking. I try to read everything you post. I am no coat tail slacker. I am learning to fish for myself.
Thanks CA for all your hard work and knowlage.
KEG AOI UMC ENZN GBG ENTR ISR ABK CT GLUU ELGX NBIX NAK… and good old BPOP