As you may know, I bought CIT yesterday, and minutes later, the stock was halted pending news. Currently, the government is refusing the bailout CIT and the stock is under the very serious threat of bankruptcy. This is a 9.5% allocation.
This was a high-risk speculative play, and I lost. CIT will likely be the biggest mistake I made since I started trading in late 2002 (I never got caught in a bk co) . No doubt, I am fully prepared to take a 100% loss on this position. The stock won’t open at $0.00, but let’s say that it does. Not only will it wipe out my entire week’s gains (so far), I’ll be in the red at approximately -2.2% for the week. This will also bring my YTD gains to about +198%, below the 200%+ level that I’ve been holding on to for a while. Who cares?
That’s nothing. In fact, it doesn’t bother me at all. I’ll be green by the end of the week, and I know it and you know it. Everyone makes mistakes, and not a single person here is perfect. I will be the first person here to say it. The important thing is to just let it go and move on and bite the bullet like a man (or a woman, if in fact, you are a woman). And remember, taking losses is part of the business, unless your Lenny “Roofless” Dykstra.
Now, if you bought a huge position in CIT, then you are screwed. Take it as an expensive lesson in money management. Everyone is responsible for their own actions.
Moving on to the SPX, yesterday’s move broke away from the descending channel. I stated in my previous post that the opening gap was enough for an intra-day breakaway gap. What’s important now is IF and HOW we consolidate from such a massive move.
Below are the 2-month/60-min, 3-month/60-min, and 7-month/daily charts of the SPX with noted support and resistance levels.
Below are the SPRD Select Sector ETFs (XLV, XLB, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLY, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLK):
How ’bout some GG?
Hey, everyone makes misteaks…..
To be honest, when you took that CIT position, it seemed out of character. Your discipline and commitment to the trade are most admirable, especially considering you don’t chase rumors or hope, which are obstacles I often have trouble getting past. The CIT position you took seemed to be built on a little of both; rumor and hope.
I’m sure you’ll make up the loss in short order. Thanks for the hard work and the lessons.
I have 19 possible imminent breakouts on watch, so I’ll be positive for the week starting TODAY. Therefore, I put in a market order to sell whenever CIT opens.
thats it buddy…..saddle up and move forward..lets make some $$$ while the making is good.
MassagedEgo appears to have been correct!
Hope there’s not too much more downside to your p/l your highness!
Maybe its time to stop ‘spouting off’ about how great you are and stick to making calls now and again.
Just a friendly note.
Been making calls homie.
Dude , where is your blog. I want to see if you are 100% on your pics
Pride – …. you have 2 exclamation marks .. one ‘your highness’ .. one ‘spouting off’ .. one suggestion to ‘stick’ to whatever … your ‘just a friendly note’ is disingenuous bs.
as long as one owns up to their mistakes, they are free to spout off on their wins.
If you don’t like CA’s style, go elsewhere .. but you don’t .. and you don’t for a reason .. because CA delivers and he teaches ….. he ain’t a bullshitter, like your ‘just a friendly note’.
Whoever you are, I just made you look like an idiot.
Good day to you, sir.
CA,
I understand from your post that we now need to see how we consolidate post this surge – but given the failure of the head & shoulders to break down this time, is there a probability that a long-term investor could assign to us being back in a bull market? Cheers
The Head & Shoulders developed, but there as no confirmation of a close below the neckline. Therefore the pattern was negated (but it was close!).
Long-term = how long?
By long-term I mean time horizon of > than 1 year
but i would also be curious if you have a view as to the probability that the pattern being negated means we’ll be in bull mode for the next few months or longer – can we draw that kind of conclusion from this sort of event?
Thanks for your time. And I just wanted to let you know that when i started reading this website I only went on the Fly. I now find myself on your blog at least as much – cheers
I can’t really determine the future beyond a certain point. When I say “future”, I mean the probabilities.
CA – I know you will be in the green by the end of the week. Cheers~
Bought HGSI $2.84
Sold 2 days ago. Yeah for me…
Amazing call. Didn’t have a chance to capitalize on it…flawless!
what did you see in HGSI to buy at 930 am? i’d like to learn what signs you looked for even before the market opened…
Out of CIT $0.43
FHCO looking to b/o
Good mornin CA…
I’m looking at LVLT for a trade… what are your thoughts on the daily?
Bought LIZ $$2.91
FHCO breaking out…woohoo.
Glad you joined!
what’s your target, when you selling…hold for a few days for a swing?
Tough to say, given that it is a new stock and is at it’s all time highs. i don’t know what my target is. i’ll probably put a trailing stop on it soon.
good call…best part about new stock…no resistance 🙂
out of curiosity…how much drag are you giving the trailing stop…i don’t use them much so…
3.5% – which is $6.33 right now.
GOOD CALL
Thanks CA, feels good to pick one on your own every now and then.
FYI – I ALREADY RECOUPED MY WEEK’S LOSS.
Hell yeah
you da man
CA – manning up is just one of the many lessons you’ve generously shared – another part of the legend you’re building during this bear of the century (Josh was a great counterpoint during his time). Thanks, and no one who’s been reading / following your stuff for any length of time doubts you’ll be kicking the crap out of the market right out of the gate.
So it is said.
SPX gap down at open has been filled, FYI
Bought DRL $2.219
wow… the magician recovers in record time… too bad I overslept and missed your entry point.. dayam
Could you tell everyone how you foresaw that big raise?
Thanks
MUHAHAHAHA
DRL is going to go nutz, it’s brewing here at 2.30
DRL short float is 45% with 12 day to cover. I’m in with you on this one, those shorts are going to be in serious pain
DRL just ripped!
Epic squeeze in the making…
Epic squeeze in DRL.
CA – Can I get your take on RZ, NCS on the daily?
dont like and dont like
FMCN – would appear to be close to breaking out. Can some of you offer some analysis? Does the high volume doji at the lows on 6/23 make this a bearish candidate OR does the good volume on 6/25 on a big up day make this a bullish candidate?
Thanks
MNRA..getting ready watch for volume to come in…good luck
Sold half HGSI $3.52
check out API.to
Up 5%+ for the week. ROFL
I have to change the title of my blog post.
Sold qtr HGSI $3.83
HOLY FUCKING SHIT HGSI! YOU ARE THE MAN CA!
Been studying short squeezes as a topic over the last month – just wish I had more time into it. My calculation on DRL is that there should be about 2 million shares out short – with just around 160K traded so far today, there should be a lot of action still to come. Anyone with more experience / knowledge have some thoughts on it?
Venim, after this second breakout on FHCO, i changed my stop to a hard stop at $6.48, which is just below the bull flag on the 5 minute chart
Thanks Gunners I have a $.22 cent stop right now…will look at chart more tho…planning on moving back to a trailing stop later? or leaving the hard stop?
my trailing stop hit…prematurely of course…good luck…out at $6.57
I got hit too. Ah well, it was a good winner!
no argument there…let me know what else comes up that’s interesting…
CA you are killin it …. on FIRE!
Thanks for your take CA. Nice call on HGSI
breaking 200,000 shares on DRL, a million and large change more to go with the market turning up.
Sold half DRL $2.65
Amazing calls this morning CA! I didn’t get in on them but looks like you are back with a vengeance after CIT 🙂
Thoughts on FBCM on the daily?
looks ok.
I am up over 7% for the week 🙂
holy shite man, that’s awesome!
ALGT continues up on price and volume with a 38% float and 9 days to cover – it’s been a slow melt up over a couple of days.
I see it at 12 days to cover with 45.20% float from shortsqueeze.com
where are you getting your info from?
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=algt&submit=Short+Quote%99
using FINVIZ.com – I like your numbers better. This has been a profitable time to be interested in this stuff.
I forgot about that site. I don’t understand their ranking – ALGT at 800ish and DRL at -200ish
not sure which one is more accurate to be honest…i’ve been watching DRL’s numbers on shortsqueeze.com and they haven’t changed much.
I’ve taken each night to looking at every stock with > 30% float and buying the ones that seemed to have good underlying themes / sectors and charts. It has been a very good formula for this market run.
CA–how do you feel about VIP on the daily? seems primed to move higher if it can clear the 50-day at $11.61…
still consolidating
CA,
What trading software do you use? And chart modeling software?
Thanks and Congrats!
My brain.
nice
GMK consolidation breakout @ 4.64
also, has a PPT rating of 4.22
NVAX..launch pad…
Saying it again … LTXC looks imminent!
ca, what do you think ’bout api.to, biggest volume of the year today, and it’s up 40%, would u use a spiker strategy here
well, it’s up too much for my comfort.
ETFC 1.28
I see that it is above the 20 SMA and it has a short float of 25% and 1 day to cover…might join you in this position.
ca, are you adding to UNG here?
no. I have lots of time.
CA: Thoughts on COIN?
no opinion
Someone mind posting a link to CA’s reading list? Pretty sure it’s on the weeklyta blog but it’s blocked from my work computer here. Thanks
here’s a partial list of book that I own: http://astore.amazon.com/wtc0c1-20
would u recommend Japanese Candle Charts as the first reading in your list?
You should prob start with basic technical analysis first, prior to learning candles.
GMK starting to have fun
http://chart.ly/79z9mt
INCY ?
Still in this one from $3.40. Loving the break above $3.75. Looking good. Thanks Sergei
stopped out yesterday @ 3.64
giving it another try @ 3.79
HERO BE
Is there any way to switch between a threaded view and a sequential view of this blog? TIA
Yes, but maintain uniformity among the other blogs. Use the “recent comments” thing on the top right of the blog for most recent comments.
WNR (gotta think the shorts are gonna pour out)
PARD, still flagging but feeling a bit squirrelly I think
FINVIZ shows ORLY 96% short float, 6 days to cover, shortsqueeze shows 11% and 7 days. Clearly something’s afoot – I’m inclined to lean towards something called shortsqueeze rather than FINVIZ…
thoughts on BGCP?
CA-
I found the title of your post very intriguing when you referred to CIT as a “mistake”. Outside of losing money, which part was a mistake? Or in other words, if you saw the same setup today would you take it?
I traded a stock that was threatened with bankruptcy, but still bought it anyway. I took a -74% hit on that position as a result. But still up 7%+ for the week.
Yo CA you’re the real deal, congrats on the amazing recovery! Can you throw us a bone and give a little analysis on the reasoning behind the HGSI and DRL trade? Was it purely based on patterns or a combination of data such as short squeeze ratio?
If I wasn’t the real deal, there wouldn’t be so many ppl following me, right? People KNOW what I do.
I will do something on those trades in tonight’s post.
dying to know how you made those awesome calls.
Awesome! Looking forward to it.
mkt consolidating nicely….where are all the loudmouths who were buying TZA and FAz numerous points ago..did you sell, add more…you werent shy chirping about the purchase…right before you got your balls smashed by a gorilla on crack..
lol
… they’re so stupid they probably cant even post, because they dont know what the answer to 1+5 is, hah.
Talk about loudmouths…
ETFC does look very interesting as a potential short squeeze. Who’s in on this? Any comments?
look above, sergifreud mentioned it a little while back…it does look good, esp with it being over the 20 day MA.
BDSI, BTFO
I am wondering about the potential of their product…
ANPI BTFO
whoa ANPI!
Is that a triangle I see developing in the SPY (intra-day) or should I just go back to NOT doing technical analysis?
these past 2 days have been really funny.
i had 2 large positions in TSTR and ANPI that i held way too long – and, yes, averaged down.
they were painful holds last week.
yesterday i sold out of TSTR for a small profit.
and now out of ANPI for a fairly large profit!
yeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwww!!!
Keep buying UAUA and you’ll be saying something else…
hey grouch, where you been?
i have been missing your insightful comments recently, and especially those spectacular trades of yours.
my UAUA position is up 3% – nothing big, but we’ll see …
Go find a single trade Grouch has ever posted on here? moron
FWIW … TCK just broke resistance
These morons talking about 1400 jobs being added to the financial sector in may and june and making a big deal out of it. No shit they added jobs, they added college grads to their payroll! How do i know, i was one of them 2 years ago. Started last week of June. Everybody is added in june/july
CA – nothing to exciting, but what you make of EK?
good
Doubled my position in ALGT placing a stop at $45 in at 46.31
Shit happens. At least your position got poleaxed right away, sort of like taking off an arm with one swoop. Look at me and my FTK position, similar to having my arm cut off via butter knife.
I know it’s not quite as exciting as some of these low-priced big movers, but is anybody else watching the explosion higher in FDX?
People on Twitter benefiting from my REAL-TIME calls:
http://i587.photobucket.com/albums/ss311/chartaddict1/1-8.jpg
looking to add some suffering to the shorts; bought MTG, CVBF, CENX. I’m blown away the bears couldn’t move squat today, and financials are holding up after a monster run.
almost forgot: MTG: 4.32, CVBF: 6.56, CENX: 6.45
MTG kaboom
Sold qtr DRL $2.50/2.49
Remaining:
25%: DRL
25%: HGSI
100%: LIZ
whats your take for GLW? Would it move higher or there is a pullback coming?
Thanks
Wherever you are Josh, I think this is really gonna sting…
WRLD 21.98
CA – what do you think of PDS right here and through tomorrow A.M.? thanks
CA – any opinion on VITA?
AMKR 5.54
EXAS b/o
Bought LVLT $1.53
MTG stopped out at 4.90 – very, very fine. If I had more free cash I’d double on WLRD.
ANPI
finally broke out this morning. Got FDA approval of TAXUS Liberte Long Stent. Looks like it could run up more?
Bought 1/2 LVLT @ 1.53…. buy stop @ 1.56 for the 2nd half.
SVNT trying to break out. This was on Fly’s short squeeze list. In at 14.48
Damn, no more cash available…
I’m full of cash, just got out of GLW. Any stocks to look at?
I just screened to day trade the hell out of anything with a high float and a half decent chart that was up today, all were posted.
What do you guys think about the rally continuing further? I am thinking of adding QID and DXD as hedges.
i think the shorts are fucked sideways till sunday..that said of course a pullback could come after the spike move we have had…
Yea you are right. I am in 50% cash at the moment and this rally has lasted 4 straight, strong days. That’s why I am not comfortable committing new money. Perhaps I will wait to see how tomorrow opens and make a move then..
Sold half LIZ $2.95/2.96/2.97
I’m trusting the charts courtesy of CA. We made a break, but I’m day trading when I can because of deadlines – I plan to be almost all cash by the end of the day unless something even more heroic happens like GS / financials busting out completely
out of AMKR 5.54
nice trade asswipe! Lost your commissions, could have had a GG on the rocks.
haha, you must pay a lot of commission.
I count 4 bull flags from 1:30 to present with a triangle possibly forming since 2:50ish, should be an interesting close whatever happens, predicting a gap tomorrow
LVLT forming a White Marubozu?
Anyone, thoughts on RIMM?
I FINISHED CREATING MY TRAINING MANUAL : 300+ PAGES
Good Shizzz.. does it make readers magicians too?
MRNA spiking
MRNA..getting some mojo
Sold qtr LIZ $2.91/2.92
Remaining: Full LVLT, qtr, DRL, qtr HGSI, qtr LIZ. 17.5% long/82.5% cash
GOOG….shitting the shower on earnings…?? lets see
Jim Goldman fucked that up.
cnbc is goat shit…hahhaa
LNET looks ready to pop at the open tomorrow. B.O. at 3.60 level.
CA,
Do you think options expiring tomorrow has something to do with this ginormous move last few days?
Got most to sell thier calls and now kicking themselves for doing so.
LR
Great Day! Sold INCY at the close, Sergei.
I’m holding MVIS, ENTR, SVNT, LVLT. 20% Long, 80% Cash
Why’d you sell INCY?
Just to take some profits and minimize my long exposure after this run-up. Stock still looks good and I may get back in.
Are you long MVIS or waiting for a pop to $3.25 to sell?
Nix that. Missed by 3 cents on the close.
Just want to say thanks. I also got burnt on CIT but recovered from your HGSI call.
Thank you!
You’re doing awesome man. For all haters, eat shit!
Can’t wait to see your post on how you saw the breakout of DRL and HGSI
I bet you that even my haters are following me into trades, but are too pussy to admit it.
—
My major recovery today was EPIC. It actually surprised me, and I don’t usually get surprised.
CA, Why do I feel like I want to short LIZ? I have issue?
Outstanding calls today CA – more marks in my book with DLS – my kid may yet avoid state school thanks to you and iBC. Another big day even though I started mostly in cash. Shifted gears to keeping both hands on the wheel, keeping no more than 30% overnight most days, fewer positions, looking for the short pressure and bust outs. I figure so many saw the head and shoulders they are in way deep. I only trade my IRA (no margin trading) which locks up cash for a couple of days after a day trade. Frustrating to see my cash in the not available column, but it’s been good, forcing me to be more selective and disciplined. Still in ALGT but sold 1/2, CENX, CVBF, LXK, NSTC, closed out WRLD but will be looking for it again if the market is hot, holding my silver and gold.
I got news for you. I went to the fancy schools. Your kid is better off going to state school.
Save your money.
(Unless he gets into Princeton, which is now free).
_______
Or better yet, when your kids turn 13, teach them how to invest. That’s when I learned. When they are 18, get them trading. That’s when I started.
The best education you can give to your kids (I am not a parent) is how to obtain financial independence at a very early age.
sagacious advice… academia is utterly useless with respect to making serious dough… it just teaches you how to be institutionalized and get a ‘job.’
SAY, ARUN, EDU
Yeah, I’m really kidding about that – it’s kind of a standing joke around here since I went to state school for almost nothing and made a small fortune selling cars during my senior year, while I’ve hired plenty of fancy college kids that were pretty useless. I’ve been trying to get my 20 year old nephew (who would be well suited) interested in the market but no luck at all. You guys have been fantastic every day, what a freaking free education. So many folks owe you thanks
Your humble student