Let’s go through the SPX again. This time, today has a huge significance. Today is the day where the market either breaks away from the descending channel, or fades immediately, thus continuing the steady downward price action.
Currently, the SPX futures indicate that we will open at around 916-918. This is enough for a break away gap up right at the open. The first 5 minutes are critical.
915 is the KEY resistance area as noted above. 905 has become KEY support. Therefore, in the case where we are unable to BTFO, then 905-915 is your area of operations.
In the case where we do get enough power to sustain above 915, the major consolidation resistance area is between 922-928.
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Thanks for the analysis. Being that I am short heavily via TZA and ERY getting my face punched in and ass ripped up at the same time reaching levels of pain that I do not want to take any further its good to know that we are looking at the same ranges although from opposite sides.
I’m in 100% cash as of yesterday’s close. I’m too busy doing shit this week.
what are your thoughts on JAZZ on the daily? the 20 SMA should provide support?
your posts and comments are much appreciated.
still providing support
Shit, I missed those closes again. Okay I promise to watch closer next time.
Thanks for he analysis CA. Any one else on this FUQI train?
i missed the FUQI train, but it’s a good one.
FUQI looks like it’s forming a right shoulder.
Agreed, but it pops through 20ish…cha-ching.
Stop is in to protect against a losing trade.
Great analysis as usual. Thanks.
good morning!
back in UAUA 3.3
Short FLEX for a daytrade @ 4.73. Out if it breaks yesterdays high. Stock opened above bollinger band, and looks extended.
You better get the fuck out of TRGT!!
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/2009/07/14/spx-analysis-8-day2-mo3-mo7-mo/#comment-11197
I took my lump, it was a small quirky trade since i was having a good week. A little late to post due to bigger trades during the open. Hah, i let a $.50 profit go. Oh well.
Buy 500 Shares Limit $5.85 Day Only 9:41 AM 07/15/2009
Bought 500 $5.85 Settles on 07/20/2009 9:41 AM 07/15/2009
Status: CLOSED – Filled Reinvest Dividends: No Order #: 81952211
nice call NCS .. sold this am .. will pay for my weekend tutorial
raising cash-ola into this ramp-age
also, sold PCBC
I’m gonna take a rest day. I’m just about brain-dead from a serious lack of sleep. I can’t mentally function.
I’ll be around here though.
Out of FLEX @ 4.75, just want to watch this market as it breaks higher. That was my play in case the market faded.
In EGLE at 5.36 silver and gold are en fuego.
Sold NSTC @ 4.34
Sold POT.TO @ 97.50
Sold ABT.TO @ 5.50
Money time 🙂
Back in ALGT at 44, taking some FAS off the table, NSTC breaking out.
bear tards are quiet…tending to loss of balls and margin calls…hammer to the scrotum by the H&S pattern..oopss…whats obvious is useless….learn weedhoppers
In HERO @ 3.62
wow, great insight
trying some TZA 21.93
Amen to the CNBC guest – emotion is just more data
SPX still bouncing off 923 as predicted, +1 on SPX so far, thanks CA
Out NSTC at 4.51 – think the day is solid, but have to split and so set some stops to protect todays egregious gains in silver, gold, GOL and FAS – bank massive coin today guys.
Bought ENTR $2.67
Bought HERO @ 3.62
LOL Cash – I was among the cautious ones about the H&S but I didn’t sell anything short. Whew*
thats is a good thing for you..no doubt…well done.
CA, GME is looking prime for another round of short, no? Pls provide some insights. Thanks
In ENTR 2.69
In GU 1.96
in BEE 1.04
ENTR is looking hot!
I wouldn’t call the H&S dead yet – it has two left shoulders – this bump up could just be the 2nd right shoulder. Not saying it will be – just saying it’s possible and I wouldn’t claim it’s over until we break out from 930-950.
outta TSFG breakeven
ENTR lacking volume on the break
sold JAZZ 4.01 (bought yesterday 4.06)
Anyone thinks GME is a good short candidate from here?
Sold SWKS @ 10.97
HERO setting up nicely on 5min/daily
Anyone think we’re gonna bust through 928 today?
we are probably going over 950 this week JPM, GOOG, IBM reports great earnings like INTC and GS tomorrow
The shorts are going to get a late day squeeeeeeeze! (flat and unbiased)
looking like it all might happen…. crazy.
Is it too late to get in ENTR at 2.73?
Looks like it having a hard time breaking out of that. Any advice would be appreciated
it doesn’t look too late. i personally would want to see more strength before jumping in.
wow, JAZZ spastic
AMKR break from ascending triangle, volume looks good!
Just ticked 928.2….
How do ya like the chart of gold miners NXG and UXG on the daily? I yhink they are setting up nicely for a rally on the medium/long term.
Bought HEB $2.1199
You sure about that one? It’s the kind of company people are thinking of when they disparage penny stocks. I know we’re not exactly trading on fundamentals here, but HEB is a particularly extreme example – a product that doesn’t do anything being hyped as applicable to every new problem that comes along.
What are they working on approval for now that cancer and bird/swine flu haven’t worked out?
oh he is sure, HEB breaking out.
CAPTAIN instead of all that BS. You coulda made money by buying a few shares.
I didn’t say it was stupid or anything. I was just offering a humble sanity check, which is why it was phrased as a question. I’ve made and lost money on HEB. And for the risk involved, my experience has been that there are usually better setups on better stocks. Plenty of stocks have broken out today but which also have real world earnings and good prospects. I *wish* someone had offered me that kind of sanity check on my HEB trades – I would have won more and lost less if I’d understood its pump and dump behavior better. I love small cap hand grenades, but HEB’s just a straight-up scam in my view and often seems to defy technical analysis.
He was sure, and he’ll likely do fine.. But the trick with HEB seems to be getting out on the right timing, which is often within a 2-10 minute window. Trailing stops get whipsawed. If CA can do it, great. Though as I’m reading this it’s sitting at 2.13, failed to cross its 200 day sma, and is looking ugly on some stochastics.
def not too late for ENTR, needs volume or it`s going back below $2.7
I said I wasn’t going to trade today. Oh well, too bad.
The new spam protection line before you comment was necessary. I would get over 200 spam comments caught every single day + recent malicious attack that broke through the filter.
Doubled HEB position $2.12
HEB moving. The homepage of the company does not suggest much quality, but who cares when the technicals look great…
Bought CAEI $1.74
Bought CAEI @ 1.75
Bought USU @ 6.18
Doubled CAEI position $1.75
bought ggc.to
sold PCBC 2.33 – thx CA – 12% gain
Captain Anarchy – you must be new on my blog.
Back in time for plenty of excitement – end of day will be a godsmack on the shorts or I’ll be disappointed. Ended up back in ALGT at 44 and back in NSTC at 4.54 using my iPhone – that was very cool.
Aye Captain – there be treasure all around – IMHO even if the bears are right on the fundamentals the market is more right everytime. Sorta like the mother nature thing, I just make sure to keep one eye on the bears all the time.
Hmmm, is iBankDubloons.com taken already? 😀
Absolutely – this is not a fundamentals driven market. This is a leverage/deleverage, currency, state intervention, and technical driven market. Why are we going up? Because the perception cannot be allowed to go the “wrong” way, and so prices will be goosed just enough to break the H&S perception. I’m not foolish enough to fight this or ruminate on conspiracy theories. And besides, if this was not done other market actors (like china) would be smacking us around three ways to sideways. If Government Sachs didn’t manipulate the market someone else with deep pockets and money-printing leverage powers would.
I’m just trying to get some crumbs. I was, however, lulled into complacency by the lack of after hours fuckery the last few weeks. So I have to admit to being caught with my pants down today hoping to short down the top end of the channel we’d been running in until yesterday. I put some money to work on the long side this afternoon and will see where this takes us. Still a lot of uncertainty from where I stand. I wish I’d just sat the whole thing out until the end of the week….
So, even with as mercenary and pragmatic a view as that, I still think HEB is a floating turd.
Sold half HEB $2.175, Half CAEI $1.7799
Bought CIT $1.643/1.645
CA – if you have a minute, what’s your take on FUQI on the daily? More gas in the tank?
I was in yest from 16.2 and out at 17.82 and back in at 18.02 and holding. Thx.
Sold remaining CAEI $1.75, remaining HEB $2.15
CIT halted
A test of technical analysis
“CIT will receive a U.S. government aid package in the next 24 hrs, Fox Business reported Wednesday, citing a Reuters report.”
Dow Jones News wires
sold TZA 21.33
stupid trade.
CA real quick as I am getting my face smashed with my inverse shorts. Do you see us breaking out of the range this week if we close above 930 thus invalidating the H&S we were evaluating? Thanks in advance for your comment.
We broke out of the descending channel at the open, if you read my daily post above.
Let me say one thing. the Head & Shoulders is CONFIRMED ON THE BREAK OF THE NECKLINE. Otherwise, it’s a NEUTRAL RANGE. Not a single day went by where we CLOSED below the neckline.
Read your post but didn’t really get the point until you confirmed it again, man I am a total fucking loser this week. Thank you .
thoughts on over night holds? do we open lower tomorrow to cool off some of these gains?
My plan WAS to not hold anything overnight.
*U.S. AID PACKAGE FOR CIT EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS: REUTERS
*REUTERS REPORT ON CIT CITES UNNAMED PERSON FAMILIAR WITH PLANS
—
Looks like I have no choice but to hold CIT overnight.
Looks like you bot CIT about a minute or two before it was halted.
Was that something on your watch list that just got to the right level at that moment?
*CIT BONDS DUE DECEMBER 2010 RISE 3.5 CENTS AFTER SHARES HALTED
*CIT AUGUST BOND RISES 3 CENTS TO 89 CENTS AFTER SHARES HALTED
Looks like bondmarket likes the news of a bailout coming… we’ll see what it means for the equity!
GL chart addict, didnt have the balls to join you in the first place.
sold FEED 5.65 (bought 5.04 mon)
stopped out of INCY 3.64 (3.39 thu)
LTXC looks imminent …. CA, can you confirm?
Teahouse, I’m not even close to CA status but there’s a 50DMA to battle with and it’s approaching descending resistance here, I would wait for a break above .55 on volume or wait for a pull back to .40 and see what happens there before making a play on this one, but I’m a rook too
Thanks for the response … I was looking at the 3 day 15 min chart and failed to take into account the 50dma … I’m a rookie when it comes to these micro-cap break outs.
also looked like a symmetrical triangle on the 10 day 60 min with some resistance at .50 that was breached briefly @ .51 …
CA how would you recommend hedging CIT if the news is not good equity wise? FAZ?
if the news turn out to be bad, i don’t think a hedge will save u. lol
Hey that’s funny, LOL, jackass.
Yowsa, hoped everyone banked big time today, up 3.7%, even though I was only about 60% long during the day. Trimmed end of day to be 40% long. NSTC seems primed – glad I got back in. Sold most of my FAS for just south of a 30% gain over the last couple of days. I don’t have the nerve to hold and I think I’ll miss it tomorrow. Holding OZRK, ALGT, NFLX for the squeeze potential, might add ADS but today was likely it’s day. Holding my PM’s. We are indeud living interesting times.
CA–great post as usual… perfect framework for a very important session. Thanks.
*CIT SEES `NO APPRECIABLE LIKELIHOOD’ OF U.S. SUPPORT NEAR-TERM
not good guys, goodluck tomorrow… godspeed!
Rut-roh…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cit-says-government-support-unlikely-near-term?siteid=yhoof2
If anybody asks you to chart CIT tonight, it’s okay to tell them to go fuck a bag of rocks.
hmm..if I lose 100% on CIT, I’ll be down -2.5%ish for the week. No biggie.
CA – ya gots balls…
“Porn: the Business of Pleasure” on CNBC right now!
WARNING: GRAPHIC!
That was a great show!
CA, could you tell me if GME is good to short at this level?
Thanks in advance.
GME actually looks like it’s stabilizing