Here is the SPX analysis. The charts progress from 8-day/15-min, 2-month/60-min, 3-month/60-min, to the 7-month/daily. This way, you can see what’s happening in the short-term, intermediate-term, and the long-term all at the same time.
This is currently a reactionary rally with the trend rating at “neutral”. Currently, the 20-day MA sits at 905, with the 50-day MA not too far above (911). If you trade the general market indices or futures, then keep these boundaries in mind:
Great post as usual. Yesterday was overdone and probably included a good deal of short covering.
NFLX – in at 42.43 – momentum / up yesterday, big short float
STSI is spiking
Still in PCBC CA?
TorontoCanuck – u work in the finance industry?
For future reference, I don’t reply to “still in?” questions.
Tells me 2 things:
1) You followed me blindly
2) You don’t know what you’re doing.
I don’t advocate either behavior.
Didn’t follow that trade – I think financials are pretty overbought here and never liked PCBC’s loan book but then again u don’t care about fundamentals.
Anyways will keep that in mind for future reference
when are we playing SC again?
How about next week? I’m still in the middle of moving / preparing to launch coverage (huge pain in the arse). How’d your session in LA go?
I’m going to LA this weekend.
Oh ok – sorry about that …lack of sleep getting to me. You have any teaching sessions on the horizon in NY btw?
Sold HGSI @2.56 = A waste of time…
TSFG 1.16
NEP 3.93
swing trades … CA, your take on these, please .. danke
TSFG maybe, NEP better, but still risky. I have no inclination to buy either of them myself.
HW b/o missed it.
In GOL at 6.24
UAUA 3.27
Out STEC at 27.77, +2.67
nice trade
Thanks. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.
sergeifreud – you been watching the airlines as oil’s been under pressure or just picking up from a screen? I felt GOL had a couple of things going including being in an net positive country. I like ALGT cause of the float and they actually are making money, not just shaving costs.
My chart.ly chart on GOL on July 14th 2:13AM: http://chart.ly/wy4rgh
“Healthy bull flag developing. Major LT support marked ~$5.50. B/o may be imminent.”
you r f**kin’ amazing. thank you very much for the analysis!
You most definitely win again CA!
nah, just thinking there is a bottom there at 3.2-3.25 and could get a squeeze. but i will be playing it with a tight stop.
i really should stop doing it this way and wait for the move to jump in – bad habits are hard to get rid of 😉
FHCO on the daily? High and tight bull flag?
yes
I’m in at $6.07
i’m in with you at 6.05…i like the high base formation.
I couldn’t comment on my own blog for some time now.
Same here…
Ferrari – no I dont work in finance but I am doing my MBA in Finance at the moment. Not sure if that counts 🙂
INSP and RDWR looking primed for take-off. Thoughts CA?
Rotman?
PLAB starting to spike
In DAN with you CA, seems to be a lot of resistance around 1.9. Do you think it has enough legs for a b/o above this range?
I’m short DAN.
FUQI looks interesting and worth watching imho.
In at 16.20
Watching EGY
AEZS setting up nicely on the daily
Descending triangle on SPX 1 min, bottom ~900, short 901.25
Thanks for the heads up. What is your target for the move down?
Initial target is 898 or so – before the charts start getting messy with the chop from yesterday 1:30-3:30
Mental stop moved to 900, sold after high volume doji 10:38, +1.75
CA – thanks for MTXX!
Anyone see MTXX fit for a LT play? Provided they manage to reverse some of the effects from the zicam disaster.
How about that last minute 3:59PM MTXX buy yesterday? A fucking steal.
sweet call
I asked yesterday because I’m trying to learn CA, what did you see there?
My *guess*: huge plunge down on tremendous volume, but followed by some signs of bottoming action – i.e., up days with high volume, declining/low volume on down days, which indicates accumulation. Look at the volume as it corresponds to price action. People were buying at those levels and holding on.
Kinda the reverse of a capitulation, high-volume spike. In this case, good for a tradable bounce, at least. Fundamentally, MTXX is facing a lot of issues (e.g., litigation) that may keep it range-bound until they are resolved.
??
You thoughts on this mornings MOS set-up please
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MOS&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p21112295951&listNum=1&a=141059059
Good entry point just here?
AGEN continuing higher …
MRNA..waiting for volume..
GNBT setting up
Nice Bear Flag forming on GNW with 50 day right above. Good short?
Bought OPWV @ 2.38
Sold MTXX $6.22
Impressive, sold at the exact high!
Twitter is slightly faster when I post trades. It takes time for comments to publish here.
here goes DRYS
looks like i’m the perfect contrarian!
Picked up some ENTR this morning.
DAN breaking out…
Another CA holding.
cash money day.
when do you plan to retire?
Hey CA,
What’s your plan for UNG? What levels are you looking at?
I have a bit of UNG in my LT portfolio. I don’t even look at it. I plan on holding that for several months.
hahaha – the juxtaposition of LT and ‘i plan on holding that for several months’ is pretty funny.
Bought LSI @ 4.62
added UAUA @ 3.22
NEver add to a losing position, moron… what are you thinking!
It’s called averaging down. Calm down.
CA – Thoughts on VCI on the daily? It’s setting up nicely here.
In NSTC at 4.30
Bought NTSC @ 4.28
In with you!
xrtx running
CA – glad to hear you have a LT portfolio! Say hi to Random Roger for me when you see him at your conference. I’ve blended quite a bit of his conceptualization in my (developing) approach to the market.
CA (and others), what specifically do you look for when trying to tell the difference between a flag and a reversal? I usually look for higher volume and a confirmation in the opposite direction before considering an entry but often I find myself missing moves or just catching the tail end of them. Suggestions?
SPX bouncing against/trying to break through the 20 day
Short small USU @ 6.09… quick flip
and out… 6.07… stocks not ready to give up yet
GOL breaking out the topside with 3x volume – NFLX making alpha but no sparks, OZRK – I’m josh dogging but with FAS showing green I’m not going anywhere.
FUQI…divine.
Out FUQI at 17.82, +1.62
nice trade.
Thanks. Watching it closely on the 10 min chart…a break above 18, with volume and I’ll buy again.
Back in FUQI at 18.02
Out of DAN at 1.99….thanks CA!
Lol. I was wondering where that noise was coming from.
JAZZ 4.06
nice high tight bull flag on DAN, I will be selling this today
Watching another potential descending triangle on the SPX 1 min, noon to now
Short 904, PT 902.5
Upper tredline violated, out at 904.5 bleh
Lol, looks like I need wider stops d’oh
Check out ORLY. More volume or is this good?
i would watch for b/o over 40.50
IMMU
SPX – Symmetrical triangle from noon till now?
Bought PLAB @ 4.90
got $DAN ……@1.99……on CA request:)
Raising cash.
Sold NCS $2.2
cmon DAN push baby
there she goes!
do you see a rising wedge on the 15 min chart?
Long TZA @ 24.18
LR
sold MRGE 3.9
Out NCS 2.25
Sold PCBC $2.12
what was your target on this?
I don’t see resistance til 2.50 (20 DMA) and then 2.75.
I believe I’m about to make coin in CORS. It’s all in believin’.
Sold half DAN $2.06
stop selling..you will scare all the sheep here…hahaha..nice trade.
Sold qtr DAN $2.04
DRYS wow!
too bad i screwed that one up
Sold remaining qtr DAN $2.01
FTK rocking
sergeifreud – I’m pretty sure with DRYS or EXM you’ll get another chance or three or four, up or down.
feeling like a more tense replay of yesterday – except we’re not up 100 points
bears shitting their pants….a few more good reports and another squeeze will erupt
INTC may have done just that.
Late reporting the trade… CYCL short @ 7.71.
Rumors FCC might block takeover by T. If i’m wrong it’ll cost me 10%, if i’m right i’ll make 35%
wow this thing is moving quick!
nice catch
Bought back CYCL @ 7.21, wow… umm that was fun!
CYCC breaking a downtrend on light volume .
sold UAUA 3.24 even
Up over 1% today but feel the need to lock in some profits and raise some cash as I was becomming seriously long overall – cashed out DAN with some excellent coinage (tip-o-the-hat to you CA), TNA for just under a 10% gain over the last few days, and ALGT for the short term 5% gain – I’m thinking the several day meltup in ALGT will continue for another few percent though. Holding it’s evil (high short float) twin OZRK (up a measly 0.7) and FAS (up 13%) until something wicked happens, as well as GOL, NSTC and NFLX. Thinned some positions to half, now 60% long. Rest of my portfolio is IAG, PAAS, AGQ (thanks Jake) that are all in the green. It smells like a zoo out here with bear and bull shit all over the lawn – debating whether or not just staying on the porch for the rest of the summer.
TICC , FLML —
CA, it may be a little early for requests, but would much appreciate your view on these stocks
I just noticed something about the 4 bear markets charts.. None of them came back to form a double bottom.. Interesting..
Short very very small TRGT @ 5.49… adverse effect to the drug the data shows. Think 80% rally is too much. Not betting big as i stated though.
How’s that TRGT short working out for you!!!
throwing yourself in front of a train, me thinks…