Wide-Range Consolidation / Day Trades / Sector Analysis
The Tau Empire
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First of all, I’d like to give a huge shout out to Jeremy for working 24 hours straight to get this site up and running again. I praise your excellent work. You guys have no idea how much work was put into the new site, so be grateful.
Secondly, due to the outage, I could not properly document my trades. However, if you followed the instructions on the “iBC has moved” page, you would have followed my ass on twitter. I gave out win after win after win, and it’s all documented, despite the lack of my blog.
The first thing I did yesterday was close out all of my shorts at the open. By 9:40AM, I was in 100% cash. How’s that for perfect timing? If you missed it, you can go through my tweets. I was up +3.8 entirely from day trading select names, such as CAR, AGM, VVTV, and DTG. Heck, even Jake followed my trades. If you joined me, you came out with free money in your pockets.
The market is in a precarious position right now. I suspect that a wide-ranged consolidation will continue, therefore, I will refrain from swing trading and go exclusively with day trading. Neutral consolidations are hazardous to swing trades and benefits day traders the most. Conversely, trending markets favor the swing traders, leaving the day traders in the dust.
This bear market has lasted for 20.5 months so far. We are still down 41.2% from the October 07 peak, but up 36% from the March 09 low. I still maintain a bearish stance, but believe it is not time to short yet.
Let’s talk about the exit timing of my short positions. How did I know the market was going to rally? I didn’t. The only reason why I covered was because I did not get a gap down to at least 890, which was the main criteria for me. In addition, the magical lines that I use showed me immediately that there was strength in the market, prior to the spike higher. I used my “Connect-the-Dots” strategy (the “dots” can be seen on the 2-month/60-min chart). Sounds simple, right? This will have to be an entirely new educational article.
Finally, I broke down the major SPDR select sectors (XLV, XLB, XLK, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLE) and added the patterns, ratings, and technical notes:
Indeud.
CA do you mind not putting the graphs on blogspot cuz my ISP blocks blogspot sites thx!
love the charts by sector- thanks so much- super helpful
Great stuff as always. BTW do you guys EVER sleep?
8:30am - ALGN - possible short
June 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Align Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALGN) today announced that a jury delivered a verdict against Align in a lawsuit brought by Ormco Corporation (Ormco) against Align Technology, Inc. (Align) in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California (District Court). Ormco alleged that Align infringed claims of Ormco’s 6,616,444 patent. Align claimed non-infringement, invalidity, as well as unenforceability of the patent.
8:38am - GFI - possible long
June 26 /CNW/ - Gold Fields Limited ( Gold Fields ) (JSE, NYSE , NASDAQ Dubai: GFI) today updated its operational guidance for Q4 F2009. Attributable production for Q4 F2009 is expected to increase by about 4% to approximately 905koz, which is better than the guidance provided on 7 May 2009 .
LOVE THE NEW SITE - congrats on a great day yesterday CA!
hell of a day yesterday.
http://s699.photobucket.com/albums/vv352/retox13/?action=view¤t=esjune25.jpg&newest=1
9:00am - SOEN - possible long .32 cent stock
MENLO PARK, Calif. , June 26 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ — Solar EnerTech Corp. (OTC Bulletin Board: SOEN) (the “Company”) today announced it has entered into a 10MW contract to deliver its solar modules to Solarzentrum Allgau, one of the leading solar system integrators in Germany .
The total shipment value to Solarzentrum Allgau under the contract is approximately US$20 million . Shipments, aimed for solar power installations in Germany , are scheduled to begin immediately and will be delivered throughout the current calendar year.
SOEN - above contract was for 10MW - 20% of their entire capacity.
About Solar EnerTech Corp.
Solar EnerTech is a photovoltaic (”PV”) solar energy cell manufacturing enterprise incorporated in the United States with its corporate office in Menlo Park, California . The Company has established a sophisticated 63,000 square foot manufacturing plant located in China , in Shanghai’s Jinqiao Modern Technology Park . Currently, the Company is capable of producing 50MW of solar cells from its existing production lines.
Great reversal yesterday CA. Wish I was more selfaware and admitted I was wrong I had my ass ahnded down to me on all my shorts and to add in sult to injury didn’t take any profits in CAEI and even worse my LEA lotto (which unfortunately I doubled up this week thus no more play money) got me feeling suicidalall alone in a dark room … keep up the great work knowing it is much appreciated.
Retox, Kman we were talking about the Fed test i had studied, i hoped you guys had some fun with it yesterday. 2.16% gain vs the avg of 2.2% gain. I’m going to start following this thing blindly after each Fed meeting.
Kman congrats on JAZZ yesterday too
SOEN -
FY ‘06 TOTAL REVENUE $0M
FY ‘07 TOTAL REVENUE $5.5M
FY ‘08 TOTAL REVENUE $29.4M
1Q ‘09 TOTAL REVENUE $4.4M
(today annouced contract value $20M)
PissAnt,
SOOOO much fun yesterday! Beautiful tape.
SOEN - in @ .33
ISTA - halted - material news pending…
RNWK, NPSP breakout possible
CAR secondary B/O
Hate to say it, not being a jackass… but i’d be worried about ISTA. With what has happened to MTXX and CPD lately, FDA is cracking down everywhere. GL everyone who is long, wish you the best.
DPS
SVU waking up
PissAnt,
ISTA appears to be a 1st class company - they’ve done this before (where MTXX was basically selling snake oil and CDP I believe was just a generic mfr.)
This is from FDA 2 days ago:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal health scientists said Wednesday an anti-itching drug from eye care company Ista Pharmaceuticals did not show any serious side effects in testing on patients.
I’m liking the new site. Great work guys, espec. the IT fellas working overtime. Good stuff. Yesterday was divine to say the lease. And yes PissAnt, your study held true…keep up the excellent work! Sold JAZZ yest at 5.25 for a sweet winner.
Currently in PALM at 15.13 following the pullback at the open.
ISTA - good article for anyone still long to understand what we are looking for in this news release:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2434098220090624?rpc=44
Retox - I know nothing about the company, so you’re probably right. Just seen 2 companies get hammered.
VVTV cruising.
CROX looking perky on the daily. Thoughts?
SPPI looking nice in at 6.54
Stopped out of PALM - tiny gain.
Yogi - 3hrs a day.
Milan - we all have our moments, no one is perfect
Fook - CROX is triangulating on the daily. I would wait a little.
PissAnt,
Micro-cap drug stocks and FDA trades are risky for sure! Nice call on the move yesterday BTW.
SOEN +18% - good volume - the story needs to get more attention. Bring in the daytraders…
HEY EVERYONE-
How do you like the new site?
still getting used to it and I can’t get my damn gravatar to work… but it’s a nice step forward!
I hate it CA!!! Lets go back a generation please. HAH, jkjk. Its very nice and runs smooooooth!
Love the new site… but especially loved the cash generating tweets yesterday… woot! Keep it up man.
spoke too soon
new site looks good :]
I like it still getting used to it …. I am still figuring out how to view the recent comments and updates …. I hate refreshing every few minutes,
ISTA
9:58 - FDA SAYS:
SAFE!
EFFECTIVE!
The new site’s looking hot! running a lot faster too
Thoughts on ALVR daily?
What’s the green number at the top of the post mean? Right now it say 39 but it changes…
Oh duh… number of comments.
Swine “Flew”
http://www.fox16.com/mostpopular/story/Truck-carrying-90-pigs-overturns-on-interstate/NbU_YxdKK0S_ZGgMNQNL1Q.cspx
Great site. But I also can’t get the ‘newer comments’ button to work. To get new comments I have to refresh. But I couldn’t get the RSS feed to work on the old site. It only got a few of the comments.
Fook - my guess is # of responses/comments.
Back in Palm at 14.93
CA,
If you get a chance,
Am I being greedy with a PT at .44 on SOEN?
I’m in @.32
sorry - in @ .33
Site looks great. AMLN
How did you guys get the avatar to work? I signed up, but how do I get the avatar to this site? Thx.
CA - you like BORL on the daily? They caught a takeover bid.
Retox - RE: SOEN
No, but only if you’re willing to go through a pullback.
—
Never, ever, expect things to go up in a straight line. If they do - great, if not, then you didn’t get your hopes crushed.
In MGM at 6.50
BORL - yes. I think like last month, I mentioned that BORL looked like the next SUMT.
I love the new site. It loads into my system really fast. Even the charts load immediately! Can’t wait to see how it acts on my BlackBerry.
Great work Jeremy and everyone else who worked on it!
CA,
I’m 100% willing to wait for SOEN. Thank you!
CA- Great site and appreciate your work.
Retox - Are you surprised ALGN is not falling like a rock? Invisalign has to be a half or greater billion $ product and this decision could mean a huge financial hit for ALGN. Great call on SOEN btw. I was watching it like a moron as it climbed and didn’t buy. Looks like it hit $.70 a year ago so I’m thinking maybe $.38 isn’t too high a point to get in.
Thx CA - in BORL at 1.29 and SPRWA at 26.92
shawnk3,
ALGN - I think the news said they were not precluded from selling Invisalign as of now. Got distracted by SOEN so I stopped reading more.
Well, on SOEN, I can’t imagine how a contract worth 50% of their revenue since inception will not be a positive for them… but I don’t know much else about the company as of now.
ISTA halt is in disemination stage
and here is the news……..
ISTA Pharmaceuticals announced the Dermatologic and Ophthalmic Drugs Advisory Committee appointed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommended the approval of Bepreve 1.5% as an eye drop treatment for ocular itching associated with allergic conjunctivitis. The Committee voted unanimously 7 to 0 in favor of approving Bepreve after reviewing comprehensive safety and efficacy data from ISTA’s clinical program.
ISTA
dissemination complete - will resume trading @ 10:55
I know at least 5 people are still in this - have fun!
ANPI picked some up yesterday at 1.66
MR - Mindray Medical - going nuts today.
In CHS at 9.33 - day trade.
Testing
ISTA - wow
ISTA -
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
up 30%
SCI
Bought TIBX $7.42 - day only
retox thinks that Pepsi incident was only the beginning of Michael Jacksons eternal walk through fire!
AXTI …….
bought some XRM @ 1.06
ISTA - that’s why you SELL the news…
i wonder how long ANPI will keep that 45° angle ?
low volume though.
Bought ACAS $2.84 - day only
Out CHS, +.13 - small winner
ES is forming a falling wedge. watching.
ALVR trying
CA,
what do you think about these?
ATSG, BGP, CWTR, VTG
thnks
I still like the daily setup on SNTS
Out ACAS $2.84 b/even
Out TBIX $7.42 b/even. Too exhausted to be trading right now.
Kman,
Nice call on PALM…..
Market not moving anywhere..better stay away
ES buy 910.5
CA I followed you into the ACAS what target you have/had for it before unloading it that is?
ES out 912 +1.5
Up over 20 points this week on ES.
P.S. I love you SOEN - give it to me some more baby.
ES might keep going but there was no volume there…
above $3 for ACAS.
I can’t focus. Long night, last night. So, I’m going to cut down on the day trading today, unless something spectacular happens. I’m still here though.
Thx GozoTrader. I wouldn’t be surprised to see PALM crack 17+. We’ll see, but I may unload 1/2 at some point today.
I’m new around and loving this site and CA’s work. Just wish I could access the PPT from work, but the corp firewall blocks my access.
CRME
missed it….went to make a sandwich
Getting into ALY at 2.50
thoughts on ALVR on 5-min?
CTIC worth a look for a potential BE
ALVR moving a bit, but without volume?
Bought AMLN @ 14
ALVR - look at a 2-week chart. Must break out of the symmetrical triangle.
Needs more volume, otherwise, it will be marked as a consolidation day.
LDK thinking about it…….10 min chart
JADE
CA,
What do you think of LJPC on the daily?
TPI on watch
LJPC
CNO imminent
Short ES 913.25
ES stopped 913.25 BE
CA - What’s your short-term target on CNO?
CA,
check out KONG….I think you’ll like it..
damnit I had that one right - I’m such a pussy.
LJPC appears imminent
CNO- $2.15-2.20ish
Watching IILG
The guys with the avatars next to your comments….how did you get them on there? Specific instructions. thx
—
KONG is fine
INSM is trying to breakout flat line most likely fakeout
CA - what’s the target on LJPC in your opinion?
CA - do like SPPI on the daily? I’m in since 6.54. Thx.
CA,
Looks like you need to go here and get one….
http://en.gravatar.com/
LJPC - $0.25ish
SPPI is fine.
Gozotrader - I already signed up. So, now what do I do? How do I get the picture over to the blog?
CA,
Your thoughts on CKSW ?
sweet call on CNO - not it in but unfortunately.
for Gravatar:
Delete your cookies
Delete your browsing history
CA,
Dont know……havent sighned up yet
That’s as clear as mud. Not in CNO. Missing the edit option.
*CNO*
I’m experiencing a great deal of man-love for CA at the moment.
CA: Make sure you use the email address you used when you setup the Gravatar account when you post comments here. I think that is how they link together.
MDTL imminent
IT WORKS!!
test
SPPI going for it, w/ vol.
TRID - peaking above looking for some sunshine.
SOEN - I like this .36 to .39 rectangle for some more (prob not today).
peeking
Is there already a post here about choosing exits on these lotto pics, or should I just hold CNO till I’ve got “new addition on house” money?
bought HAFC 1.66
CNO consolidates here. 2.14 to 2.18 should be a tough range for today.
TRID looking good… gravatar test…
do you have to have the same username on both gravatar and this site too, or just the same email?
nevermind!
CSII b/o, but on shit volume
I’m done for the day. I have important shit to do.
CNO +7%
TPI +5.1%
LJPC +4.2
ACAS 0%
TIBX 0%
CA - nice ‘test’ post by the way. Check out on205th.com for add’l resources.
Test
OUT SPRWA - BE
Out MGM - +2.6%
Holding PALM, SPPI and BORL
Regretting not piling into CNO w/ CA and others.
Good weekend kids.
one final freebie: CAR base breakout
NAILED CNO. Amazing stuff CA
Will be attending a bikini fashion show tonight for a cancer research charity.
Two new ETF triple leverage s&p…UPRO SHORT SPXU
NIce! Thanks for CNO. And finally, the JRCC short worked out for me. TYTYTYTYTY!!!
All these stocks have HUGE buy imbalances due to the Russell imbalance.
CAR is more than 1M to buy, CNO huge to buy, BWEN also…
One interesting stock is OVBC, yes VERY VERY ILLIQUID. I’m taking a shot at it, bought @ 30.30. Stock has 210k to buy, very very illiquid name.
CA - photos please
Sym triangle forming on ES 1 minute - setting up right into the close.
And I was thinking about running a 1/2 marathon for cancer research.
As a cancer survivor - donations from all charity events are always welcome!
ES - on a move out of the triangle I want 915.25 to the upside or 908 to the downside
I will post pics when I come back. I may not come back early tonight, just so you know.
ES buy 913.5
ES out 915.75 hit PT +2.25
OVBC breaking out ahead of this huge buy imbalance on the close.
What a fucking 180 in CAR, i hope everyone got out
I caught CAR for a +2.25% scalp…watching to see if it pops again.
ES trades for the day +3.75 (3 trades)
ES total for the week +23.75 - all called out live except yesterday.
TA on ES for today:
http://s699.photobucket.com/albums/vv352/retox13/?action=view¤t=esjune26.jpg
Have a great weekend everybody! Pleasure trading with you.
Anyone buying OSUR on that recent dump?
Thx.
Hope CAR can close strong today
RAX
CA, I really appreciate your specifications of day trade vs. swing trade! When I get home from work and log on to IBC, I am playing catch up…
CXM going crazy, anybody caught that?
CA - If you’re still around, would you agree that S&P would have to close above $923 for a bullish sentiment going forward.
I, along with my SRS calls which have dropped 60% in the last two days, can’t wait for the selloff to resume.
One last buy - EGLE at 4.98
CAR - nice bounce of 5.29ish…not in it tho.
CAR’s closing imbalance is 1.57M shares to BUY
Polar panda - yes, if I can find the spare cash.
CNO! Son of…
CAR looking sweet…
OVBC up $.70…. trading at it’s all time high, going to be a HUGE close with this imbalance coming in at 3:50pm
PissAnt,
Where do you get the imbalance info?
THERE WENT TRID !!!!!!
TRID - I know I said I thought it was ready but WTF was that??????????????
CSII, MGI, GPRE, CNO, NCS, etc. BTFO. All mentioned earlier.
Alright, the imbalance had been paired off in OVBC… SOld @ 30.95 avg
Retox- You are on fire
Doc Bill - Thx.. Nibbled into ANPI. Eyeing OSUR.
Have weekend everyone!
TRID Holy shit, I had a small OCO order sitting at 1.90 with a sell at 2.02. the order opened and closed before I had a clue.
NPSP b/o
Venim, my Schwab shows me. But also ahead of time i have buddies who work in program trading on wall st. who have expected imbalances heading into the Russell rebalance. Also i have Bberg and they show the imbalances of NYSE and AMEX names @ 3:40 and 3:50pm, and nasdaq names at 3:50pm.
Forgot to say got into AKRX also.
retox - gotta love the OTC gifts. You had a great week!
TRID - That was total 100% DUMB LUCK.
ACAS - looking good
oyyy i sold too early on OVBC, there it goes alltime high.
OUT EVERYTHING
hah OVBC went up $1.50 in the last 2 mins
Great ending guys - up over 2% today - biotech was on fire, SGMO, AMLN, AVII were the standouts in my collection. Thanks to CA for the CNO, 45% cash. Feel like quiting for the month but hoping the loutis fund managers need to squeak a bit more to close the quarter. Have a great weekend.
SNTS finally broke the mf out. Thank god. I was losing the patience there.
TSTR got homo-hammered. Glad I never got back in - I was so tempted in low 1.60’s.
Saw HUGE numbers on the ask in the last couple of minutes. Wonder if there is bad launch news?
Unless you have data on the closing imbalances for the Russell you are really playing Russian Roulette. Great job everyone
CA,
Thanks and don’t forget the pics from the bikini show!
PissAnt,
not to mention you are playing against super-human computers
I WIN AGAIN.
GOOD GAME.
CA,
You have the hottest blog on the internets - at ANY price - and it’s FREE. Fucking unreal. We can’t thank you enough!
Any one else see volume on the nas running extremely high for the day?
Deroo, that is normal volume for every Russell rebalance, same exact volume as last year….
Responding to that question to see if my avatar or whatever the fuck it’s called works.
thanks, appreciate the quick response!
If you bet against me on every trade I made for the past 3 months, then you would have filed Ch. 7, twice. Ch 11 wouldn’t even be an option.
Anybody see ISRL? Damn that is a sick 2 day move off the rebalance. UP $63 this week lol.
How do you learn to read chart? Any recommended resources? Thanks
Signed up for twitter today and took full advantage of your HEB and CNO calls. Also caught a 50% move in DCGN so had a top 5 lifetime day.
Fly has a time machine, but were you sent to us from the future?
testing avatar
Newbie - how do you read a chart? Are you serious? READ SOME DAMN BOOKS.
—
Flaps - I create the Future.
CA - while I’m figuring out what I’m good at and what I suck at, etc., any perspective on the number of positions someone might typically hold at a given stage of investing experience? Do you have any stocks that you hold for a long time regardless of market conditions?
I seem to have a comfort pattern (certainly based on reading you for the past 6 months) - first deciding the cash / stock ratio I feel comfortable with given conditions, then keeping position sizes around 2 - 5% each. I’ve made bigger bets from time to time, and also just felt I had to own some stuff no matter what, so trimmed down individual holdings to make room, ending up with a big basket.
Bears repeating - that call on CNO was classic CA. My little guy thanks you profusely for helping with his college fund (testing my avatar - if you can see it - at 4 days old last February he expressed a more conservative investment posture, and some trust issues we’re working through)
Hey CA,
The $SPX, $DJI and $RUT are all flashing the warning bell…but got any idea why the dang Nasdaq is so strong? AAPL maybe?
LR
Bill - I try to limit myself to no more than 10-15 positions at any given time.
Beginners should limit themselves to 3-5. Your focus and concentration are centralized to a small number of positions. In fact, beginners should always start out with 1) a small number of positions, and 2) small position sizing. As they gain more experience, they can handle the pressures of taking on more (and larger-sized) positions.
Having too many positions is also a problem. Your concentration and focus are scattered everywhere, and thus, attention may not be equally given to your portfolio. In addition, having too many positions will water down overall gains. My ’standard’ allocations for swings are usually 10-15%, but these days they are 5-10%.
—
LR - sectors do not move in tandem. Some will always be better or worse than the others. Currently, there is no consensus in my sector analysis. You can tell because there are bullish, bearish, and neutral ratings present. When it is this unclear, I stay in cash. The COMP has been least affected by the financial crisis, due to the lack of financial names in the index.
CA, I know you use the 15,20,50,100 and 200 SMA for Daily timeframe, but what SMA do you use for shorter timeframes? Such as the 5min, 10min, and 30min?
YO EVERYONE:
Get on the link below and vote for iBC. Do it:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/the-best-of-the-money-blogs/article1196635/
IBC is killing the financial blog poll!
Spamming my own comment from ‘The Fly’s tab:
Good news! (Plus, it looks like Hayden is 19 now, so I’m no longer going to ’special hell’.)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/eonline/20090627/en_celeb_eo/131364