Huron Blackheart, Tyrant of Badab, Chapter Master of the Astral Claws, Servant of Warmaster Horus
Well, if you saw ADLS and CTIC, then you know that I had a small down day yesterday. I got into ADLS at $1.14 on 5/29, and for some reason, I sold only half my position yesterday at $0.85. The other half? I still have it. Ridiculous right? Well, I will sell the remainder today.
ADLS was a 5% position. I took a -25% hit on the first half, and I’m holding the other half, a -62% loser, which makes up 2.5% of the port. Not bad. Then BZ came and saved the day, cancelling out CTIC’s losses. It could have been a disaster, but I was never in any danger.
This is the most simple lesson in position sizing that I can give you. It will save you from utter destruction. If you had a much larger position, then you aren’t having a really good day right now. Taking losses is ok, but only when they are contained.
My holdings are cash (52%), ADLS, CTIC, ACAD, TGB, MRGE, BZ, PLLL, AXL, and OCNF. You guessed it, they all make up approx. 5% each. Within minutes, I went from being 100% long to 48% long and cut a lot of positions simply to raise cash. It was a necessary emergency defensive measure I had to take. My goal is to preserve my gains, so after this ADLS incident, my risk tolerance for biotech went way, way down.
But hey, I’m still up +10% for June!
I wanted to bring up ADLS specifically because this is the first time I lost so much on one stock in a single day (by percentage) in the biotech sector. For this reason, I will be making the following changes immediately:
- Focus on higher priced stocks with a limit of $20, instead of $3.
- Cut the biotechs and get into other sectors.
I respect the market and listen to what she tries to tell me. ADLS was a warning against buying so many lotto tickets and I will heed it. That’s how I roll.
In addition, I will post charts of potential breakouts on the blog from now on until I get tired of doing it. I’ll give them to you, but it is your responsibility to make good judgment calls on them. You can thank me later. These are only setups which must be confirmed intra-day. Don’t buy shit indiscriminately just because I post a chart.
Finally, I want to say that I am really proud of everyone that contributes on my blog. Your picks and ideas are golden. Everyone’s making money here (or should be, if not, shame on you), and that’s a really great thing. I can honestly say that I am making money from some of your picks, so keep it up and thank you for your contributions. You all know who you are.
4:30AM EST – I only got through A to C stocks because it’s 4:30AM and I didn’t get any sleep yet. These are only setups. Trade accordingly.
Do you never sleep?!
I am Warmaster Horus, Champion of Chaos and the Lord Commander of the Eye of Terror.
What the hell is “sleep”?
I, Lucius the Eternal, do not sleep as well.
We are going to bank coin today Warmaster Horus
ABADDON went FUCKING OVERBOARD AND PISSED HORUS OFF!! please EXCEPT MY APOLOGY!!
I don’t sleep more than you.
I’m too tired to continue scanning, but these are patterns and stuff that I look for. I add them to my preliminary list.
You can never go wrong avoiding biotech–it always has had complete psychopathic/bipolar price action.
I can toss in a few .. though a couple have made initial moves
ICOC
QCOR – not great but poking its head out of a downtrend
SRZ
UIS
ISTA
GFRE
SPTN and SWWC (my two small cap positions) are picks I recommend. The only biotech I’m truly following is HGSI and that’s because on the daily it’s ridiculously close to the 200d SMA. IO and MMR are close to breakouts but are currently taking tiny respites.
I like BEXP (it’s on one of my watch lists) and I think that ARTC setup will payoff if the stock holds true to its uptrend.
Great setups bro.
“You can never go wrong avoiding biotech” – risk / reward (duh) – there’s been a lot of money made here over the last few weeks in biotech. I don’t think it’s close to being over given the current administration focus and the various serious tech breakthroughs using genetic manipulation and stem cells and an aging demographic (boomers). I think you do have to embrace the small position concept (CA has made this point many times) and take profits when possible – better to play with the house money – always.
You may want to look at YZC. It has had a nice run but is forming a high tight flag in the last two days.
Could some kind person list the symbols CA posted, the blogspot domain is blocked at my office so all I’m seeing is a nice little red x. grr.
Mike, here you go:
CYPB, CSUN, CSE, CENX, CBS, BVF, BEXP, BARE, ARTC, APL, AMLN, AFFX, ABG, ABAT
CA, nice work.
Picked up some VICL – still looking at some biotech
Thanks a lot Kel.
(AGEN, ANPI, WFC)
VICL looks good to me…
thanks CA, u rok
word.
CA – Thoughts on STSA?
CA, DVAX has a good run this morning. I feel bad that you just sold yesterday.
Anybody look at the options market for CTIC?
Jan 2010 $2.50 calls trade @ .05
Jan 2010 $2.50 puts trade @ $2.30/$2.40
Wow, options market pricing in a $.10 stock in January…. goodluck everyone, hopefully it’ll go to $5 first for CA and everyone else.
Been short CPN and POT for 2 days, probably get flat when SPX retraces to 200dma
STEM..acting well in a weak tape…fyi.
Sold TGB $1.82.
Sold remaining ADLS $0.40
The third ANPI blast off is very sweet indeed. I don’t know where it goes next week, but based on what the product does(eliminate the need for bypass surgery) and the big push for cutting costs I think it will be in my portfolio for a while. My nature though is to take some profits again by selling a half and hopefully come back in for another ride.
CLDX & CRGN…re-up marine style.
Addicted to Garbage says:
bot UIS PLUG QCOR
CA,
What are your thoughts for OCNF? Still like the chart?
We’ve got some DVAX today. Thanks to Henry Fool and others for that call, looks ready to go to $2 and beyond pretty quickly.
VICL..recommended here by Bill..could participate in the HEB explosion.
GERN & STEM…long both here
VICL should do fine (yeah sure) – they’ve got cash and product. I filled my position with the am dip, still holding ANPI
AHD is leaving orbit – waited a long time for that one – massive thanks due to CA I’m sure.
Dont waste your time with QCOR, that thing is a dud! That was last years play, CA and i had a really fun time with that stock as the stock market was cratering!
Unloaded CTIC @1.82. Might recover more but it’s eating up too much attention following it.
Bought me some SCMR. Short ratio over 10 and trading below cash.
Picked up VICL on Bill’s recommendation 🙂
First time for everything!
STEM & GERN..looking good
AGEN..WTF…!!!!!!!!! fuck fuck fuck
Crap TC, did you have to put that in writing. Now we’re both screwed…
This is what’s going on right now:
This fucking idiot got drunk as shit last night, arguing like a little bitch, and fucking wasted my time, and was WRONG about a certain stock, so I couldn’t post more charts here because it was fucking 5AM. As a result, I didn’t make it in time for the morning breakouts, ruining my entire plan for the day and costing me some large gains.
Fuck this son of a bitch. I will punch your entire face off. You are now demoted back to maggot status.
I will attempt to refrain from trading today due to succumbing to the Black Rage. Instead, I would like to go to a sexy party: http://www.hulu.com/watch/44197/family-guy-sexy-parties.
CA..dont waste your time with idiots..ignore their stupidity and keep your joy and focus..in short fuck moronic ass faggots ..then spit on them..all while enjoying a single malt scotch and a grouper sandwich.
CnG- I really wish I had hopped on the AGEN train.
CA that reminded me of this:
http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/myl/llog/duty_calls.png
me fuck too…thats the game..STEM is finally coming on..have owned for over a week..FYI..
Any of you gurus got an opinion on our old friend FLOW? It’s taking off this morning
Hey CA,
Sorry to hear that bro. Fvck the idiots. Don’t waste your time arguing or baby sitting them. We need your focus here. Lol.
Cash,
In with you on STEM. Been eyeing that one since last week.
polarpanda..good luck to us…!!!!
Cash- you think there’s still time to get in STEM?
Anyone else think IMMU has more room to run?
STEM..to me is just starting to break to upside..imo.
IMMU..could go higher of course here…but shit its already tripled…a tad late in the move for me..imo.
VICL…catching a bid..
I kept an eye on STEM along with ACTC a couple of weeks prior to inauguration, and naturally both went ballistic. Nothing spetacular has happened since the executive order was lifted. ACTC had some restructuring plans but it’s just not picking up any momentum. Hopefully STEM can ride on some big volume gains.
i’m in the VICL sweepstakes…
Cut AXL $2.32.
Thoughts on ISTA?
How’s everyone doing today?
TC- looks like a doji, or indecision day. It can go either way.
—
From now on, if anyone asks for my suggestion on a stock, you have to give me the TIME FRAME with it.
For ex:
“What do you think about XXX on the daily?” or
“What do u think about ABC on the 5-min/1-day?”
Good CA,
Picked up some VICL and OCNF, any thoughts on the daily charts?
TIVO?
Pretty good CA, up 6 pct 😀
CA – I’m slightly up today thanks to cutting some early losers and a monster gain in AHD.
Still holding AXL. Out of curiosity, what chart were you trading that on?
Having a truly hideous day so far – thanks for asking.
Everything commodity related is getting clocked. My sense is it will be short and sharp followed by a rebound. Everything I am tracking still seems to be maintaining recent uptrend lines. I’ll see how the rest of the day goes. I’m holding tight.
Guys whats the charts say about ALD for a swing trade.
The sellers are ball-less today…oil is what is taking the mkt down…carry on- would love to see some of my biotech hand grenades explode upward into close..
Long-
STEM – GERN- CRGN-CLDX-VICL-ONTY-LJPC-GNBT-(EDGR,not a bio).
AXL didn’t breakout from the 200-day, so I cut it.
TIVO – HOLY
I think this oil pullback will larger than the previous one. I am in 70% cash.
VICL – keep watch of the 50-day MA.
OCNF – i have it and waiting for an exit from consolidation.
Nerdy – i do not like financials personally. The entire sector sucks balls.
CA,
Doing okay thanks.
Cash,
Best of luck to us both on STEM bro. Volume off now.
Kel,
Yeah, all my commodities taking a hit today. Looks like it’s going for that gap fill.
I am down 2% for the day. Nothing in my portfolio is working except for MITI and FACT 🙁
Then again, I do have a good bit of large caps in my portfolio…
CA – I had mentioned NSTR on the daily a few days ago. The range is starting to widen. Any thoughts on that one?
Also I am watching CMLS. Lots of short interest in this one with a nice base.
Thanks CA!
Just for clarification… was that a good holy? and is that a reference to the product or the stock if so?
any takers for CROX?
Down 5% at the moment. Holding WYNN, BEE, OCNF and TNDM. The end of day will be my tell for continuing to swing these or to cut them loose.
i’m down today due to my large position in SGY. however, my basis is $3.27 so i’m not worried.
one dumb luck thing i did today, went to sell TGB with you at $1.81. raising cash and the position was winning. but instead of submitting a sell order for all my shares, i put in a buy order. so i double my position. then about 10 minutes later the stock went to $1.89 and i sold out. snagged another 4% on a mistake.
Today I got hit hard as I took a loss on NG, NGD and some other gold silver plays. I sold out everything today with a nice overall profit. However I am kicking myself that I didn’t load some off yesterday. I guess it was the ol’ greed that got met. Does look like gold and commodities are correcting a bit harder this time.
Now I will look at the market with fresh eyes and wait patiently for proper entries.
I am down -1.5%, so not bad. It’s kinda weird that I sold off half my shit yesterday. luck perhaps.
Mike – Good holy in reference to the stock gapping up like a MOFO
Just CROX added to my watch list.
AGO is slighly in the green and holding up well today. It’s had a hell of run, but it looks good for another swing long. Thoughts?
I learn a lot about my risk tolerance on down days like this. Right now, I think I’d rather be at the aforementioned sexy party than trading.
Looking to add to FEED, TC, and OVTI today.
yes, a ‘probable’ depending on end of day
ISTA is set to go!
STEM…holding up well…adding more here..fuck it.
just took a swing at CROX. looks like it may break above this triangle on the 30 min chart.
maybe a bit late but HXL
everybody should go home and sleep for a week… dollar circus is on vacation for the belmont stakes… check in next week.
ISTA is looking goood
HEB just blew up… one by one they fall apart
I feel blessed!
BEE!!!!!!
PissAnt…go blow yourself up with some dynamite…
BEE is def on the move!
BEE was my 1st PPT purchase yesterday – up $2300+
in BEE at $1.35
in BEE at $1.35 thanks to your post on the Fly’s blog retox…thanks!!
CA any thoughts on NEXM on daily chart good vol. ready to take off?
thank you
I had BEE and have to admit about dumping it earlier closer to 1.2…yes, sir I’m an idiot. May re-enter.
Son of a…
TBUS looks good here. Cheap on estimates too.
I’ll fall over if BEE clears 1.43 today but I’m holding on for now.
NEXM is 50/50 cause of the doji, shooting star, possibly leaning more towards the short-term downside.
TBUS is quite extended above the bollingers
IKAN. Thin volume but looks pretty good on the dailies…
You use Bollingers CA? I thought you didn’t bother with ’em? Maybe I misinterpreted your weekend Q&A.
VITA, CHLN (7x normal volume)
2 min
CA – You looking to get in on ISTA?
Schismatic – only when a stock spikes hard. I already know it penetrates above the BBs, but I have to know by how much, like, is half the candle outside?, a third?, or what? etc. It usually determines whether a stock will continue spiking or give up most of the gains the next day. I don’t use them for anything else.
TC – I’m not buying anything today (i don’t think?).
Bought some ISTA @ $3.01.
Looking to get in on BLC
Back in CTIC @ 1.77. Finally stopped leaking out the ass.
Bought more CTIC $1.79.
Looks like sombody dumped 5k shares ISTA – mkt order. Went right back up within 5 minutes.
Sold MRGE $2.67
Big swing to the green. I’m seeing bust outs and pops all over the portfolio – on some stuff I was too iffy to suggest – did Fly decide to get back in? Did Josh come back and post somewhere?
Damn homey! What, you got like a 20% position on that CTIC now? I think it can get near 2.40-2.50 under the right conditions, but I don’t know if I have the patience.
I bought Mad Catz (MCZ). I jumped in this morning, even after their recent big run. I swore off penny stocks, but couldn’t resist. They have had so many good news releases in the last couple of days.
It’s under CA’s $1.00 limit, I know, but any thoughts?
RC bought CTIC too.
Mad Catz???
Hell, i’ll buy one share on the name alone.
XTXI looking good here
CTIC looks like a head fake???
LOL, Schis. I was back in CTIC this morning, too. I’m buying the news releases and you guys are buying the charts. We’re all buying the volume though, I guess.
Chanci- What the news release on CTIC this morning? Brother like me don’t have time to pick up the paper nowadays.
CTIC
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?symbol=CTIC.W&rpc=66×tamp=20090603053000
…and Jake’s in too.
Complete remission in their esophagus cancer patient trials. I believe in the report Retox posted complete response means complete remission.
Esophagus cancer like ovarian cancer, is very hard to get to CR, as far as my limited research can tell.
The Mad Catz reports are much easier and fun to read.
Chanci,
You are correct.
“complete response (kum-PLEET reh-SPONTS)
The disappearance of all signs of cancer in response to treatment. This does not always mean the cancer has been cured. Also called complete remission”
Saw that CTIC report too. Esoph. CA is much more common in Asia – assuming the drug isn’t ripped off like a bad DVD there should be some nice revenue.
SVNT has been mine since a blessed 5.28 a week ago – the steady progression and growing volume seem to indicate there might be quite a bit of love left – maybe a gap up and or blowing through the 200 day? I defer to CA on this one.
MCZ was a stock that my friend and I covered when we started a stock newsletter in college. I really don’t have much opinion for stocks that are priced this low.
XTXI does look good.
SVNT – it’s possible, but the Feb resistance at $7.50. One scenario could be that it consolidates while the 200-day catches up to the stock.
IMO they are going to run XOMA again, soon… presenting at a meeting June 5-9… this has been slowly creeping up…
CA what do you think about 2 week hold, imo this should get back over 1$, hopefully
CTIC had a second release at the same time on another drug for lymphoma:
“…new subgroup analysis data were reviewed from the phase III EXTEND (PIX 301) clinical trial of pixantrone (PIX 301 EXTEND trial) demonstrating the effectiveness of pixantrone as therapy in patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma…
…Following treatment with pixantrone, ten of these 25 patients (40%) achieved a confirmed complete remission (CR), unconfirmed remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) (CR=2, CRu= 5, 28%; PR=3, 12%)…”
The CTIC chart still looks fine to me.
“Charts are nothing more or less than an excuse to avoid reading.”
“Charts are nothing more or less than an excuse to avoid reading.”
careful Chart or you will lose your mystique!
SAY is active
lol I didn’t say it.
Last paragraph:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/06/02/piss-ants-and-charts/
—
I meant that I do not read fundamental research.
CA,
GNBT forming a similar pattern as the month before ready to repeat that trend?
also,
could You comment on UUU.TO they got some problems in Kazakhstan (insert Borat joke here), how would you find the bottom it stopped today at recent support can it go lower?
CA, what do you think about ARIA on the daily? It popped in Jan, been going sideway for 3 months now.
Great blog, been making money on your and your commenter’s picks. Learning a great deal, thanks!
CA, dave pointed out SAY. I know it just spiked but to my novice chart reading it looks great. What do you think?
SAY
It’s all old news but to me it says wait for a pullback if you really want to build a position in this one…
INFY & CTSH (peers) are outperforming the S&P
1/7/09
Satyam Computer Services Ltd. (Satyam) today announced that the company’s financial statements for the past several years were fraudulent, with inflated cash and bank balances and overstated revenues and operating margins Following the announcement, Satyam’s common stock plunged 77.1% in today’s trading session.
The company that aims to become Satyam’s new majority owner, Tech Mahindra, outbid competitors and is in the process of bringing its total stake to 51%. Satyam has lost some big clients because of the scandal, so Tech Mahindra is looking to rebuild its reputation. It will be quite a feat to resurrect the company, however, because the real financials are still being sorted out and it was recently reported that an additional $100 million might be missing.
If SAY flags from here on out, I will buy it, but only if that happens.
ARIA – A $1.60 break would be good. A gap up to that level is even better.
UUU.to looks like a piece of shit. Why try to catch a bottom on this? That’s a huge breakaway gap last month. Go look for something else.
SAY is a speculative play. Look at some other companies involved in fraud that have made it past their problems.
Healthsouth(HLS) comes to mind. Richard Scrushy (former CEO) is still serving his sentence in a Federal pen. The stock rebounded from its low $.85 to $20 within 6 months.
SAY – agree that India put A LOT of effort into saving this co. and it will, at some point turn around.
A few to watch..EMKR AVGN GY