Morning Comment

The market is still looking like it is in the throes of a continued meltdown. However, it does appear to me that we might be approaching a short term bottom, perhaps even this week.

The Naz looks like it is approaching oversold territory. Five times more stocks are making new lows vs. new highs. Additionally, only 28% of stocks on the Naz are trading above their 10-week MA, which is a slightly oversold condition. Be watching this week for continued downward action. Were we to get a reversal this week or next, it could be a fairly healthy bounce back.

However, news and fundamental data from earnings and economic reports in July, and the perception thereof, will be the main drivers of the market in the near term.

If you’re looking to get bullish here, you’re either playing with sticks of dynamite, or, to quote Ronald McDonald, “you’re too fuckin’ drunk to taste that Happy Meal.”

Last week, I trimmed nine stocks from the focus portfolio. The group of stocks was flat last week, gaining only 0.18%. However, the SP500 lost almost 3 % and the Dow 4%  for the week, so all things considered, it was a win.

So far, since inception:

Focus Stocks: +11.83%

S&P 500: – 8.92%

Dow: – 11.88%

Naz: – 6.95%

Top three winners:

MEE +49.60% (realized)

FDG +35.13% (unrealized)

WLT +28.40% (unrealized)

Top three losers:

GLW -9.51% (realized)

MTL -6.50% (realized)

SID -5.91% (realized)

Sector allocations: Energy 26%; Materials 35%; Industrials 24%; Info Tech 7%; Consumer Discretionary 8%.

Holdings: (most recent prices) and original purchase prices:

[[AGU]]@86.26

[[BIG]]@ 29.05

[[CLF]]@89.40

[[CNX]]@91.41

[[FDG]]@69.30

[[FLS]]@121.10

[[PBR]]@65.55

[[POT]]@199.26

[[WFT]]@41.99

[[WLT]]@83.87

Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Because of individual investors requirements, it should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Consult your financial advisor prior to taking any actions. The information and opinions contained here are those of the author and are not necessarily the same as those of iBankCoin, its principals or its affiliates. Trade at your own risk.

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I’ve been busy today planning my weekend fun. It goes without saying that when things are going well, and you’re dodging bullets right and left, you give thanks to The Man upstairs, grab a six-pack of Alaskan Amber, and go flyfishing.

Fuck the weekend “projects”. They can wait. What’s more important? Catching bushels of Rainbow Trout, or cleaning out the garage? Priorities, my friends. Needless to say, the Mrs. is not a happy camper, and has opted for cold dark stares and frozen dinners all weekend.

Turning back to money matters, it pleases me that my focus stocks, with the exception of the two “tech marvels” [[TTEK]] and [[GLW]], are all up last time I looked. I never continually watch my stocks. It makes them nervous, which in turn causes them to try a “prison break” to upset the apple cart (…egregious mixed metaphor, I know).

Due to reprehensible action by [[TTEK]] and [[GLW]], they were given their walking papers this morning at 23.56 and 24.06, respectively. So long, jerks.

In conclusion, due to [[SKF]], [[GLD]] and [[SZK]] action, my focus stocks stabilizing and my shorts in [[UA]], [[MA]] and [[COF]] bowling over the bullish fringe, it looks like I’m going to the bank again today.

Things are looking up, because they’re looking down. Odd, no?

Have a great weekend. Good times.

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The bulls got their pee pees whacked severely for their brash stupidity of trying to buy on the dips (BOTD) yesterday and today.

My dear and confused bulls, BOTD does not work in this kind of market. Sentiment has changed, don’t you get it?

You BOTD during a strong uptrending market, buying the strong RS stocks when they pullback. That’s the correct meaning of BOTD….not “throw your hard earned money at bullshit stocks that are going down”. BOTD today….. means SNAFU tomorrow.

Thanks to stalwarts like [[DBA]], [[USO]], [[SKF]], [[FXP]], [[GSG]] and [[SZK]], I was actually up 2.52% overall on the day. My [[MA]] short initiated at 294.96 yesterday, was robust, knocking bulls into ditches right and left. I expect that the [[COF]] short sale that I initiated today at $39.03 (thanks to the tip from Juice), will take me to the bank, cigar in hand. Should it fail to do that, I will hold Juice personally responsible and hunt him down relentlessly with my Rambo knife. (just messin’ wit ya J.)

MA and COF are recent. I shorted Under Armour [[UA]] almost two weeks ago and it is finally performing as ordered. Patience does pay off.

My twelve remaining “focus” stocks were down -1.32% as a group. Some took some major thrashings like [[TTEK]], [[GLW]], and [[CLF]]. If they don’t bounce tomorrow, I will cut them loose. Even if they do bounce, I may still cut them loose just to mess with their minds.

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Thanks to Juice for the shout.

13:25

 

 

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Aiight. I know there are still plenty of those out there that are holding on to their bullish posture. That’s fine. To each his own. But realize this: your bullshit account will continue to get laden with feces from a 12 ton dump truck. Sorry, schmuckface (pardon the expression).

This market is showing some serious signs of a continued breakdown. If the Q2 numbers are worse than the optimistic bulls are expecting, get ready for the fire sale.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index, a measure of the percentage of stocks that are on PnF buy signals,  fell by almost 2% yesterday to the 40% level. Typically, the market shows signs of being oversold at or below the 30% level. I checked the charts and back in 2002, the BPNYSE fell to 24%. I think we are far worse off now, than back then when stupid people brought tech stocks to such lofty levels, only to see them take the elevator to the basement.

The January lows showed the BPNYSE indicator at 16%. This was indicative of being very oversold. February saw the indicator rise up to 40% before the pause in March back down to the 26% level. April and May ended up being decent months, where the indicator got up to 54%. 

June is sucking hind titty and here we are back down to 40% on the indicator.

I think we might continue back down from here below the 30% level, at which time I will start to consider the remote possibility of going long.

Stay tuned…. 

Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions.  Because of individual investors requirements, it should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Consult your financial advisor prior to taking any actions. The information and opinions contained here are those of the author and are not necessarily the same as those of iBankCoin, its principals or its affiliates. The author may have a position in one or more stocks mentioned here. Trade at your own risk.

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Years ago, Clint Howard (brother of director and actor, Ron Howard), was the child star of a show called “Gentle Ben”, which featured a big black bear named, “Ben”.

Gentle Ben always seemed to do the right thing, rescuing the little rascal and his friends whenever they got into a pickle.

Today, another Ben seemed to do the right thing by leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged. In the spirit of averting a major meltdown, “Gentle Ben”, aka “the Bearded Wonder”, acted in line with expectations. And for good reason…

At this point, any sign or introduction of a tightening monetary policy would be a serious error, worthy of water-boarding. The long-term health of our economy is at stake. Rising interest rates would quicken the deflationary pace of the housing market, thus causing bankers to throw up their hands and cry, “uncle!”.

Then, forced sales of assets that “they aren’t making anymore of” would occur, thus making matters even worse.

People, write this down: credit contractions are inherently deflationary. Therefore, any obsession with inflationary risk must be taken with a five-pound block of salt.

An extended or prolonged cycle of the current credit crisis, spawns a very serious threat to the equity markets.

WIP (Working in process)……….

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