Watchlist 5.20.13 | Burn
SPX – Weekly chart. This is the rising channel from the 2009 lows. There is still room for upside. The top trend line is ~1690-1700.
Even after Friday’s impressive run the McClellan Oscillator was unable to achieve overbought levels (>50).
The dollar’s strength has been incredible & I don’t see any reason why it won’t test the long term descending trend line starting from 2004. Meanwhile, the market is completely ignoring this action.
30 Year Bonds – Weekly – Building a head & shoulders pattern with some volume pockets significantly lower.
The daily chart shows a fib retrace at roughly 146’18 right near the confluence of moving averages & impeding bear cross.
LONGS:
AMZN – Watching the descending trend line — a push over it with above average volume could trigger a higher high and eventually a test of recent highs.
AMT – Three weeks worth of consolidation after a 15% run higher. Buy trigger for the next leg higher is $85.25 with preferably 2.5m+ shares.
AAPL – Volume signature is a bit concerning but I can’t help but notice the inverted head & shoulders pattern. I am long via a very small position of bull call spreads. I will close them for a small loss if we lose $419.00.
BIDU – Looks like the last few months have been a basing pattern with a few hints of accumulation. Price & volume will need to confirm the move but I believe last weeks action will confirm to be a bull flag. Watching.
CMI – Watching for a break over the descending trend line and volume resistance to start the next leg higher. Volume signature looks good.
The Energy Sector:
The XLE has been hot & the rotation into these names has already started. I am expecting to see more upside in a lot of these names this week. I wouldn’t recommend loading up with the entire lot but these are the best looking charts in sector — focus on one or two of your favorites.
APA – Cleared this long term trend line on heavy volume and recaptured the 200ema. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more digestion but it looks ready for long term higher prices.
COG – My favorite play for this week. Friday cleared and closed over volume resistance on above average volume. Recent highs is the first target then I would expect a breakout of the ascending triangle.
MPC – Cleared the descending trend line on Friday and closed right at volume resistance. Look for higher prices if the volume continues.
XOM – Looks ready to come out of the long term base. $93.60 is the first target but I think $100 is a realistic target before the end of June.
APC – Friday started a break out of a mini cup & handle pattern inside of the longer term ascending channel. First target is the upper trend line.
SHORTS:
EXPE – Possible bear flag developed off the EPS drop. A close below the 200ema would trigger the short entry with a first target of the recent lows.
PRE – Lost the rising trend line and major volume support on heavy volume. Stop on a short entry would be a close above the volume support level (about $91.25).
Trade safe this week,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 5.8.13 | Re-Education
SPY is testing the top of the channel and the upper Bollinger band.
McClellan Oscillator is at an extreme overbought level.
TLT is retesting breakout levels and the golden cross.
Watching a few more setups for the rest of the week:
AVB – Worked off overbought levels quickly & maintained price. Testing the long term descending trend line. Would like to see a break higher on heavy volume.
JPM – Put in a higher low and closed under volume resistance. Watch for an increase in volume for the break higher.
ARG – Closed at volume resistance. Watching for above average volume to break higher.
EXPE – Failed the channel and the retest was rejected. TRIP is trading lower during the extended hours session after reporting their earnings. EXPE will likely trade lower in sympathy.
MRO – Energy sector has been running strong over the past two weeks & if it starts to pull in/digest then I would expect to see a rejection off the descending trend line.
ROK – If the market pulls back look for a test of the top trend line of the channel for a low risk/reward short opportunity.
To the rhythm of a time bomb ticking away,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 5.6.13 | Radioactive
Longs:
CHTR – Daily – Bullish stochastic divergence. Nice looking bull flag & digestion pattern on lighter volume.
CHTR – Weekly – Bull flag on lighter volume, the chart rested and let the 10ema catch up.
FLS – Testing the descending trend line & noticing signs of accumulation. I am watching for a break higher on continued increasing volume and a test of the highs.
EBAY – Bounced higher last Thursday & Friday after consolidating on the long term ascending trend line. First target is the gap fill at $55.65.
MNST – Consolidating under resistance levels. Bullish stochastic divergence on the daily chart. Golden cross should happen this week.
SCHW – Cheap name. Cleared resistance levels with increasing volume. Next level is $17.85ish.
Shorts:
COP - After running almost 10% in two weeks I would expect to see the price come in a bit before continuing over the next resistance levels.
DVN – Testing the long term descending trend line after closing green 10 days in a row. Looking for a small retrace back into the moving averages. Trade will likely be a day trade unless the market shows some significant weakness.
GS – Tested and rejected the top of the descending channel. $147.30 is a long term support/resistance level.
AVB – Looks like a great short opportunity should we see any roll over in the markets. If the price begins to rotate lower the first target is $125.50.
Trade safe this week,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 4.29.13 | Outta Control
About an equal number of long setups vs short setups this week. As much as I believe the market is in a topping pattern, I can’t ignore the good looking long setups. Cautious outlook moving forward. Cut your losers fast, scale out of your winners and raise stops to protect your profits.
Not all of these setups will trigger this week. Anticipate price action but always wait for confirmation.
LONGS:
FLS – Tested the long term rising trend line last week and bounced off volume support. I am looking for a test of the descending trend line this week.
MA – Price action is coiled up inside of this pennant. Watch for an increase in volume to break higher.
AFL – Weekly chart – Testing volume resistance and the top trend line of the descending channel. Price worked off overbought levels inside the ascending triangle pattern.
CNK – Watch for an increase in volume to confirm a break out of the ascending triangle. First resistance is $29.50.
UPS – Building a base under resistance. Volume signature is expanding. Watching for the breakout this week.
PHM – Longer term ascending triangle and testing volume resistance. Could use a pull back or sideways consolidation before the breakout, but won’t be necessary if the volume comes in.
COP – Another ascending trend line tested last week and volume expansion. Recaptured the moving averages.
SHORTS:
EMN – Tested and rejected the top of the channel. Lost the major moving averages on Friday. Looking for a test of the lower trend line.
AXLL – Head & shoulders pattern. Volume support and neckline share the price level. Earnings coming up this week.
AVB – Tested and rejected the top of the channel & lost the moving averages. Stochastics worked off overbought levels quickly.
DVN – Weekly chart – Long term descending triangle. Would like to see a bounce to be able to start a short position off a test of the descending trend line.
MUR – Bear flag. Consolidating on lighter volume with a measured move to $56.50ish.
EBAY – Another bear flag setup but EBAY has been strong stock will need increased selling volume to lose the rising trend line.
Don’t forget to double check your earnings dates.
Trade safe this week,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 4.22.13 | Brainiac
30 year treasuries are building a base inside of an ascending triangle on the 60 minute chart. Breakout or failure of this pattern will be critical to the direction the market takes this week. I am expecting further upside to the bond markets so my book is positioned net short going into Monday.
This is another big earnings week, be sure to double and triple check your positions.
Below are long & short setups I am watching for the week:
LONGS:
CAM – Last Thursday many areas of support were tested and held. I am watching for a volume expansion and a follow through to the first target, 50ema on the daily.
ADS – Building a base since mid January and putting in a series of higher lows. Late last week volume has started returning into the stock and it could be ready to print new 52 week highs.
PPG – Testing the top descending trend line of this channel. Volume starting to come back in and I am watching for the breakout.
DE – Testing the ascending trend line, descending trend line & volume support. Similar chart to CAM. Risk/reward heavily in our favor with stops below last weeks lows.
GS – Another low risk/reward setup with stops below last weeks lows. First target is the 8ema on the daily chart. Once your first target is achieved you should scale out of your position and raise your stops to protect your profits & allow your winners to run.
DECK – Consolidating over volume resistance this past week. Wanted to see signs of accumulation to clear the price higher but we won’t likely see it until after EPS. 35% short could be explosive to the price if the company surprises. I will trade the reaction to the report if the price action is favorable.
SHORTS:
TRIP – Looks to be building a topping pattern. Watching for a channel failure and breakdown below the 50ema on the daily. TRIP is not reporting this week but EXPE reports on 4.25.13 and there will likely be pin action.
WLL – Weekly – I am watching this longer term pennant formation. Volume and stochastics are suggesting a breakdown. First target is $40ish then 37.00.
BIDU – Couldn’t keep enough buyers in the stock to support higher prices. It printed a lower high and is building a descending triangle. First target is recent lows.
Trade safe this week,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 4.9.13 | The Future Is Now
Fourteen days in a row & the SPX continues to alternate red & green, if the pattern continues tomorrow will close red, but it’s starting to get too obvious. Either way, it’s not healthy action.
If tomorrow breaks the pattern & the SPX closes green I would expect the treasuries to continue lower, digesting through price rather than time. They’ve had a strong run.
Apologies for not getting a list out over the weekend but here are some long setups I’m watching for the remainder of the week. Market is still very difficult to swing short but we’re getting closer to a correction everyday so I’m trying to be nimble. The bond market doesn’t lie and it’s pricing in a correction.
AIG – Weekly – Closed over volume resistance on above average daily volume (156% Monday). Would like to see a small retrace to the breakout level to start a long entry.
APC – Tested the 50ema on the daily and an ascending trend line. First target is $88.70. Note* If the market starts a correction before the recent highs are tested the chart will have built a head & shoulders pattern.
CAT – Corrected roughly 15% off the recent highs and so far volume support is in play. In my opinion, I see a low risk / reward play here with stops just below the support levels. I started building a small position in MAY $85 calls today. Have room & time to add.
KORS – Cleared this descending channel on the daily chart. I am holding a 1/2 sized position with stops at my entry level of $55.60. Would like to see volume increase and a follow through into Tuesday.
ROK – Rejected this upper descending trend line today on lighter volume. Watching for an increase in volume tomorrow for a possible break higher.
SNDK – A series of higher lows and a test of previous break out levels and an ascending trend line. Poised for higher prices assuming we have the cooperation of the market.
DECK – Not expecting this chart to trigger this week but I want to bring it your attention. We’re getting close to breaking out of this long term base. We’re getting a 200/50 bull cross and I would expect a retest of the 50ema before breaking higher. Will be watching.
We are now in EPS season, make sure you’re double checking your earnings dates on all your positions.
So, the end’s what you make it,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 4.1.13 | Fortune Faded
SPX took out the record closing high on Friday and the last line of resistance is the intraday all time highs at 1576.09. To be expected, my scans over the weekend have turned up mostly long positions, and the underlying bid in the tape has been making it difficult to swing short anyway. I did find a couple of short opportunities for this week but I’m not going to spend too much time on them until the market gives me a reason to. That being said, I closed a lot of long positions into Friday’s close and am raising the largest cash position I have had all year.
LONGS:
URI – 50ema on the daily is being maintained. Price has been consolidating under the recent highs. Watching this pennant for a direction.
WHR – Bull flag under volume resistance. Will watch for a continuation of above average volume on Monday for a push over recent highs.
CMI – Nice technical double bottom off volume support. Would like to see the 50ema act as support into Monday/Tuesday.
IBM – Bull flag consolidation over the 21ema and volume support. Will be watching volume on a break out of the flag for confirmation. First target is $215.75 then $220.00.
AIG – A shorter term ascending triangle and higher low printed last week. My entry is $39.00 and a close below the horizontal volume support level is the stop.
AMZN – Last Thursday, price closed over support and tested the 50% retrace. Watching the action inside of the descending channel for a small pull back before a run to test the upper trend line.
I noticed a lot of bullish setups in the high end retailers:
KORS – Testing the moving averages and descending trend line. So far, being supported by the previous breakout level.
TIF – Bull flag. Closed right at volume resistance. Watch volume on Monday for a confirmation.
FOSL – Didn’t get the support needed to run for the gap fill last month. Testing the 200ema and the rising trend line. A stop would be a close below the trend line/200ema.
LULU – Ascending trend line. Volume support. Falling wedge. Heavily shorted name. Only concern is the heavy selling volume. There are a few levels of support below so if you decide to take this setup it may need a little room to work. Know your risk/reward.
SHORTS:
APC – Possible double top area and a test of the top of the upper ascending trend line. Stop is a close over new highs and first target is $85.40, a test of the previous breakout level.
CF – Failed this rising trend line last week. There has been an increase of selling volume over the past month and a half. Price is sitting on some pretty heavy volume support, if it were to fail the next support level is 176-178.
A funny thing, the king who gets himself assassinated,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 3.25.13 | The Most Evolved
I scanned 3,000 stocks this weekend and for the first time this year the bearish setups outweighed the bullish. Didn’t find a lot of good looking patterns, but I have a bullish bias for end of quarter mark up.
LONGS
V – Still range bound in this descending channel. Volume starting to come into the name again. The top of the channel is also some pretty heavy volume resistance. This is one of my favorite bullish setups going into next week but it may need another week or so to trigger. I’ll be watching.
TK – Friday’s action tested the top of the pennant. Watch for volume to step in and bring higher prices. First target is the volume resistance just shy of $36. Be aware the shipping sector may be ready for a pullback.
HD – A series of higher highs and higher lows is healthy bullish action and should bring a test of at least the recent highs.
ADS – Maintained this rising trend line and bounced off the 50ema. Closed back over volume resistance on Friday. Stochastics and RSI turning back up.
CSTR – Bull flag on the daily. Trading over volume support and has a gap to close at $59.00. Could be a nice candidate for bull put spreads.
SHORTS
VMC – Watching for a long or short position off this rising trend line. Price action may find support and bounce but the head & shoulders is standing out to me. Closed pretty close to the lows on Friday — not a pretty candle.
EMN – Increasing selling volume at the end of last week and a failure of the 50ema on the daily should bring price down to the next support level (the rising trend line).
FCX – Descending triangle pattern. Stochastics overbought. Looks like it wants to test recent lows. Stop would be a close over the descending trend line.
HAL – Failed the ascending trend line last week on heavy selling volume. Sideways consolidation and a measured move from the bear flag brings a test of the 200ema.
Trade safe,
Watchlist 3.11.13 | Until The End
DJIA – Weekly chart. Broke out over previous highs of 14,198.10 and I am looking for higher prices before we correct. In my opinion, the SPX will see all time highs before the correction — However, it wouldn’t be unusual to see this market digest through time first. Still too man pundits in the media calling the top. The market is punishing them.
Money has been flowing out of the bonds for the better part of 2013. The TLT (weekly) is looking for an obvious test of the 200ema, if this current price fails. TLT got beat up pretty bad last week, a dead cat bounce is welcome and I’ll initiate a new short position. I am interested in selling TBT puts.
LONGS:
EBAY – Above average volume day on Friday. Nice hammer developed off this rising trend line. I started a 1/4 size position in APR $55 calls. Looking to add. Failure of the trend line is my stop.
AZO – Back on the list this week. I’ve been stalking this channel for months, if this turns out to be the bull flag to break us higher I am going long via APR calls. It will need room to work, that needs to be factored in your risk management plan.
AMZN – Nice looking bull flag on lighter volume this past week.
MA – Consolidating just over volume support of $525. Watching a test of the 8ema on the daily or a push over this descending trend line with volume to start a new long position for the next leg higher.
HAL – Looks ready for higher prices. Got back to oversold levels quickly on that last pull back. Following this ascending trend line out of this long term base.
BAX – Cleared this ascending triangle pattern and is consolidating above volume resistance. Setting up for a move higher.
NFLX – 60m chart – Consolidating under this descending trend line. Watching volume for a push higher. Daily chart has been working off overbought levels nicely while maintaining price.
Some cheaper names that look ready:
HLIT – Watch for volume and a break over 5.85 to clear this long term base.
RNDY – Consolidating under volume resistance. Textbook volume signature on the bull flag. This is what you want to see.
SHORTS:
FB – Humans are pattern seeking creatures, without even trying we try to connect the dots to everything we see and hear. This can work heavily in our favor but against us too. This chart is a head and shoulders pattern and a cup and handle at the same time. I started a short position on Friday at $27.85 without noticing the cup and handle in the same chart. I am giving it a $1 stop and may bail earlier if I feel like I am wrong.
TLT – Bonds got beat up last week so I am looking for a dead cat bounce to get into a short position via selling puts in the TBT to take advantage of this descending triangle.
FFIV – Bear flag on the daily. Sideways consolidation, Friday’s action couldn’t maintain the 8ema on the daily and selling volume is beginning to increase. Looking for a test of at least the lower volume support level on the chart.
NKE – Watching the selling volume near the volume support level and ascending trend line. Could be a low risk/reward short opportunity. Open gap below at $49.53.
We’ve had our fights, been black and blue, it’s true,
@AffluenzaVirus
Watchlist 3.4.13 | Wait
SPX – I know that the inverted head & shoulders pattern is typically a bottoming pattern, but this is standing out to me. It would seem there are still too many top pickers for the market to roll over here. Weekly bias is bullish for me. Thinking we see a minimum of 1527 on the ES_F.
DX_F – Weekly chart. If this volume continues to come in — this trend line will be a non-issue. But, consider the time frame.
JNK – High yields may be at risk. Head and shoulders pattern on increased selling volume. May find support on the 200ema.
LONGS:
CMG – Likely going to make its move this week. Could clear this pennant either way. I have a bullish bias on it because of the overall negativity. However, I’ll be watching for a play on either side. Volume is key.
AAPL – Open gap to fill at $425.10. There is also some pretty serious volume support right here at 425. Depending on the price action & volume this week, the JUL 500 calls are starting to look pretty tempting. If Tim Cook is serious about returning 3b to investors over the next three years we may see signs of accumulation.
BAX – Nice ascending triangle pattern. Been consolidating at recent highs for 3 months+. Looks to be under accumulation.
BWA – Back on the list and I’m still in a starter position. Cup & Handle pattern is intact and I’m looking to add another 1/4 size clearing this descending channel.
RNDY – Credit to @paulwoll. Nice clean chart and large channel with second higher low put in Friday possibly. Like it clearing 6.10.
FOSL – Worked off overbought levels and maintained its price and this rising trend line. The island reversal two weeks ago was a bull trap so be cautious. This is going to need a lot of volume to get over resistance. Less than 100% won’t cut it.
MA – Watching this consolidation pattern near the recent highs. Would like to see it move higher, clearing volume resistance, preferably on over 1.2m shares.
VHC – I’m hesitant to put this one on the list because it’s being news driven with the lawsuits. They are going to be settling with AAPL with in roughly 40 days per the judge’s orders but thinking that may be the catalyst for this ascending triangle to play out. May take more time to play out. But, could easily test the highs. Don’t stick around if this pattern fails.
SHORTS:
PPG – Low risk/reward short opportunity. Stop is clearing volume resistance. First target is the gap fill.
FB – Possible head & shoulders playing out. If it confirms, I am looking for a target of $24.00-$24.50.
EMN – Descending triangle. Possible 8/50 MA bear cross this week. Increasing selling volume.
JNK – See chart above.
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For what it’s worth, I adjusted the 20ema on my charts to the 21ema. I found it correlates better to the candles for the time being. We’ll see if it lasts.
Trying to conquer these fears I thought were gone,
@AffluenzaVirus
