WTF is He Smoking?

OK, lame POT joke.

So here’s Voldemort late Monday afternoon.

This is the first time that it didn’t pay to pay up in what seems like ages. These reversals feel so awful and make everyone think, “Hmmm, that was stupid.”

That’s why it doesn’t pay to put all of your money to work. If you bought a little of Potash (POT) when it was up big, you can either kick it out and start all over again, or you can wait until tomorrow and get it a little lower, which would be my bet.

POT was in the mid 173’s then. It then traded higher all day Tuesday, save the opening tick. Sounds like great advice…..in Bizarro World.

Weakness when you have tremendous strength doesn’t necessarily mean “when they go down big.” I am thinking yesterday about the sudden decline in everything momentum after Arch Coal’s (ACI) so-called preannouncement that created an opportunity provided you don’t do it all at once in the usual suspects: Devon (DVN), Anadarko (APC), Potash (POT) and the like.

If you use my method and you get started, you have a nifty little trade today. If it turns out that the dip was the beginning of something big, your first buy was not so hot

What exactly was his methold that got us that nifty little trade? If you bought high (I mean bought high in the stock) Monday and kicked it out you had nothing on. Then you were waited for it to be lower Tuesday, his bet. Which happened for like 3 minutes. And then it was off to the races again. Unless you somehow divined his opinion to mean buy the Tuesday open down small and sell it out at the days high, you just watched.

It’s not a bad call, he’s just taking a victory lap on something that realistically would not have produced a trade. And truthfully it’s subtle stuff like this that is far more insidious than over-the-top calls that happen to not work out, like SGP.