When I see a train coming I get out of the fucking way. I had the expectation of shorting NFLX below $74 yesterday. That may still happen, but in the mean time I want nothing to do with it. These small trades I’ve been doing today are fucking useless and I intend to sit back and watch. In my eyes the market is setting itself up for a MAJOR disappointment. If I were a betting man, I would bet the FED disappoints. That said, I’ve been away for several important weeks and my market sense seems to be off. I will be watching and waiting in an effort to avoid trains(IN BOTH DIRECTIONS).

UPDATE:Short RY

UPDATE2: Since shorting RY, it is getting destroyed. I’m up over 1% on this trade. I’m considering covering part of my position, but I can sense weakness and have a hard time covering when a stock looks this weak. Decided taking profits it never a bad thing. I covered over half my position to lock in over a 1% profit. Going to let the remainder run for awhile.

UPDATE3: Covered rest of my short. Looks like market may turn around here and I would rather keep my profits.

I left for vacation on the 25th of November and it seems we have rallied the entire time. Crazy. I have been out of the loop for awhile, being banned from the market on vacation was a hard pill to swallow. I was able to sneak looks here and there, but feel completely out of touch. It will take me some time to determine my next plan of action.

Looking at my charts, I can see certain garbage stocks ripping bears apart(NFLX as an example). I can also see things I have been consistently bearish on ripping higher(Canadian banks). My vacation was quite timely, I completely avoided any pain from being bearish. The one exception will be my CMG short that I kept over my vacation. That position is hardly worth mentioning and the loss is under 1%. I was killing it so hard before my vacation that a 1% loss is quite laughable.

I still believe we are in a bear market. However, Picking my shorts with care will be of the utmost importance. I will be watching NFLX closely. If NFLX were to break below $74, I would take that as an opportunity to go short. I’m also looking at some Canadian banks(again) for a possible short side entry. RY gave me a short signal today, unfortunately I was unable to capitalize. Tomorrow will be my first day trading in weeks and I want to get a feel for the market again before putting my chips on the table.

Chances are high that I will not make any significant trades tomorrow(If things were to deteriorate tomorrow that may change).

UPDATE: Making some trades on the short side with NFLX. Currently short, but this could change quick. Going to wait for weakness to make this anything more then some small trades.

UPDATE2:Seems I may be reading this all wrong. Going to have to step back.

Update3:Now I’m long NFLX….What the fuck

If you were wondering, that was directed at anyone whom is bullish into Monday. It’s going to be a bloodbath for you. I’m currently in Thailand enjoying cheap beer and beautiful beaches, yet I found it necessary to warn you of your impending doom.

I pulled up a chart and turned on the tv(random Asia news?) and to my surprise we rallied the entire week!! On the news of cheap liquidity. Cheap liquidity provided by who? Provided by a group of garbage countries on the brink of collapse. Fuck off. This rally is now over, only a temporary pause before ripping perma bulls faces off.

If you haven’t sold longs, it’s to late for you.

You know what? Don’t listen to me. I’m on the opposite side of the world. If I were trading, I would be bearish to the maximum. That said, I’m not trading so my vision may be blurred. I’ll be around next week, breaking necks and cashing cheques.( as per the usual) Till that time, you’re on your own.

I’m going to tell you how to be a smart contrarian. Being a smart contrarian, doesn’t mean shorting a stock at new highs, or buying a stock at new lows. Being a smart contrarian, doesn’t mean being bearish when everyone is bullish, or vice versa. Being a smart contrarian, means you need to be patient. Being a smart contrarian, means will make you a lot of money. (If you’re smart about it)

Bottom line, being a contrarian is fucking easy. Being a smart contrarian is about the hardest and most lucrative thing in investing. When I say smart contrarian, I mean placing your bets at the right time. You can be correct about the long term direction of a stock, while going broke before that direction is realized. I take NFLX as a prime example. I fucking knew NFLX was dead.(My old bullshit blog that no one read, HERE) Yet, I had the discipline to hold off until it was a SMART time to be a contrarian. On the way up, I watched NFLX print P/E ratio’s that were off the scale. I held off my shorts, until I KNEW things were on my side.

A smart time to be a contrarian, comes about when a stock(or economy for that matter) is failing, while the vast majority still refuses to believe it. It’s easy to recognize these opportunities. The hard part is making the trade. You’re going to be telling yourself things like; “It’s fallen to far”, “I missed the move”, or “I will short when it bounces”. If you catch yourself saying any of those things, slap yourself for me. Remember what 10banger taught you, be a smart contrarian.

Looking at the market, it’s completely fucked. Once again, I WOULD NOT BET ON A BOUNCE. I suspect we could get a bounce, but betting against the market is not smart. Look for a short term bottom to materialize into a several day bounce. I will be leaving for vacation on Friday, and will be gone till mid December. During that time, I have been barred from looking or talking about the markets. I hope to god I don’t miss anything exciting, however, I’m sure I will.

*Still holding half of my HON short and CMG short.*

UPDATE: I covered the second half of HON at a profit. Fuck it. I’ve decided to hold some of my CMG short over my vacation. It is a small position, and I feel like it. I believe CMG moves lower from here, but due to my vacation do not want to risk a large position getting out of hand. If CMG were to move 50 points, I would only gain/lose %1(after trimming my original position)

Firstly, I’m up huge. Secondly, I told you. Thirdly, I’m fucking pissed.

“10banger, why are you so angry?”. I’m fucking pissed because, my POS broker is garbage. They did not allow me to short GRPN(yesterday). Don’t fucking ask me why they rejected my order. Maybe they didn’t want me to make the amount of money I rightfully deserve. Who knows. I won’t dwell on the passed, I’m moving on.

Currently, everyone is in denial. Everyone knows the EU is dead. Following the death of the EU, China will be destroyed. Following the destruction of China, the rest of the BRIC’s will blow up. Following the BRIC’s being blown up, all commodity economies will blow up. This string of events is fucking unavoidable. Yet, people seem to believe stocks move higher? You think every major economy in the known universe goes under, while stocks move higher? People will be in denial about stocks moving lower till stocks are so low they no longer exist. Whatever, I will trade the market in front of me. You guys can trade the market you WISH was in front of you.

I covered INTC. I’m holding my AMD and HON short, while looking for more shit to blow up. I will also be looking for some type of bottom. If I see it, I’ll probably cover some shorts. Till then, everything is fucked.

UPDATE: Covered my AMD short. Looking to cover some HON also.

UPDATE#2: STILL HOLDING MY HON SHORT, I’M NOW SHORT CMG. FYI keeping this position small, don’t want to push things much here.

UPDATE#3: Covered half my HON short. Still holding a small CMG short, looking to cut it entirely, don’t like it right now.

“Markets don’t bottom because of an influx of buyers, they bottom because there are no more sellers.”

You want to know why I shorted a bunch of shit into close don’t you? Really, I couldn’t tell you. I sensed weakness that’s all, like a shark circling below it’s prey. This market is bleeding and once again, I’ll be there to capitalize. I shorted HON because, in my eyes this is a momentary pause before ripping faces off. Here’s my chart. You can put this day-to-day shit in perspective with a weekly chart. I shorted AMD because, NVDA is destroying them. NVDA has this new alien shit coming out.(AMD CHART HERE) Alien shit, that AMD can not even fathom, let alone compete with. I shorted INTC because, I’m sick off all this technology shit.(INTC position is on the small side. While I may be sick of technology, many aren’t and that may work against this strategy)

Anyways, fuck it. I have more pressing issues, like getting packed for vacation.

When a market acts like this(here) around important support levels, you have to question it’s ability to move higher. If this market moves below it’s lows of today, all hell will break loose. While I’ve mentioned we would bounce yesterday, it was short lived and I’m glad I did not participate. I will say that I have been making some very short term trades, while waiting for this market to decide a direction. This is one of those times where I would like to stick to my convictions, but have trouble doing so.

UPDATE: CRASH INTO CLOSE?LOOKS LIKE.

UPDATE#2: Wanted to get this down before close. I couldn’t fucking help myself. I shorted, HON, AMD and INTC.(I would love INTC for a long term hold, but I’m not in the long term game right now)

Also, AMD’s weakness is directly correlated to NVDA’s strength. It’s a battle and AMD is losing.

Volatility will be insane today and I plan on keeping my positions smaller then usual. It’s going to be difficult to make reasonably timed calls today, simply because things are moving so fast. I’m going to be trading but most likely not posting my trades, simply because chances are large that my positions will change in an instant. In fact, I might go back to bed.

Jesus, NFLX just rallied from the depths of the abyss.

UPDATE: Shorted AMZN and CMG. I will may not be posting all my trades today, but this is my most recent.

UPDATE#2:Swapped my CMF short for a NFLX short.

UPDATE#3: I covered NFLX, dont like the volatility. I do think it moves lower, but I won’t participate.

UPDATE#4: In an effort not to over trade I will be sitting this out now, I covered AMZN at a nice profit. However, I did took a loss on CMG. Covered NFLX at about even. All in all, I’m about even and fucking pissed.(ONCE AGAIN)

I called the bounce, yet did not participate. I was head faked out, minutes before we rocketed higher. This does not happen often to me, but when it does I’m blind with rage. If you find a computer monitor smashed on the sidewalk, chances are great that it was a product of my rampage. If you find a homeless person beaten up in an alleyway, that was definitely me.(Don’t worry, I garbage bagged him to avoid getting AIDS) If you find a car vandalized this evening, that was me. If you have anything horrible happen to you today, or in the future, it can be traced back to this rampage.

Don’t get me wrong. I believe this is a short lived rally, just to give the bulls enough bait to get supremely hooked. The problem being, you never know how long/short a rally will last until you see some type of topping formation. I’ve contemplated jumping back in LONG, but decided against it. I’m going to fold this hand, and wait for a better set of cards.

Currently, I’m in cash and very unhappy.

The news coming out is so ridiculously bearish that I’m on the verge of shitting myself. I thought I would stand aside, but I can’t. I got back into RIMM and bought some SSO. This market is full of non-sense. I’m pissed. Get off my bear bandwagon assholes. I started this bear bandwagon and I’m pissed off your on it. I’m starting a new bandwagon. The “Christmas is fucking coming bandwagon” and it starts today. When this bandwagon gets full, I will start another one named, “Fuck you, we’re all dead”. I’m minting coin, dare you to bet against me.

I would like to mention, if we sell off into close I will blow up with anger. (And obviously, sell my longs.)

UPDATE:Cutting SSO and RIMM. RIMM did well, while SSO did bad. About even, and not happy at all about it.