6 I called the bounce, yet did not participate. I was head faked out, minutes before we rocketed higher. This does not happen often to me, but when it does I’m blind with rage. If you find a computer monitor smashed on the sidewalk, chances are great that it was a product of my rampage. If you find a homeless person beaten up in an alleyway, that was definitely me.(Don’t worry, I garbage bagged him to avoid getting AIDS) If you find a car vandalized this evening, that was me. If you have anything horrible happen to you today, or in the future, it can be traced back to this rampage.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe this is a short lived rally, just to give the bulls enough bait to get supremely hooked. The problem being, you never know how long/short a rally will last until you see some type of topping formation. I’ve contemplated jumping back in LONG, but decided against it. I’m going to fold this hand, and wait for a better set of cards.
Currently, I’m in cash and very unhappy.
6 Responses to “Currently on a rampage”
Green Machine
Today I followed you as per your suggestion.
One particular bank closed up today: RY in case you were wondering. Examine the basket of banks around the world, I see only one up – pretty nice pick eh?
I’m mostly out now though after a Friday sell and today’s sell I am back into some of my original positions with a net gain of 3% or more shares all in my “grandfather” divie yielding stocks which everyone hates like shit. I’m watching your system, watch mine. Everyone will jump into these stocks when/if it collapses. I’ve already been there forever and I don’t care much for leaving them until I’m ready to cash in for good.
I bet both systems yield the same returns, there are only two relevant factors in this game to me: start date and exit date, not entry and exit. I am playing for the permanent retirement including from the stock game.
10banger
I understand where you are coming from. The yield is wonderful on Canadian banks. I get that, and I also understand we have different investment goals. The problem I have with Canadian banks as I have stated to you before, is they have moved away from traditional banking. They no longer borrow short, lend long. They make fee’s and excess interest on mortgage pools sold.(I’m sure I sound like a broken record)
The point of it is, when the economy is moving around nicely things look fine. However, when the economy starts to slow the excess spread is instantly blown away. On top of that, the fees also evaporate. Meaning that profits plummet instantly and out of nowhere. Dividends are only as good as the profits behind them.
I understand the historical dividend data on RY is fucking wonderful.(to put lightly) I would however, warn you in using irrelevant historical data. Much the same as Bank of America had a wonderful historical dividend record till recently. When they changed their business model, that historical data meant nothing. I would say the similarities with the Canadian banking system and the US banking system are scary.
I will say, I’m a short term trader, but I have a long term view. I try and align my trading with my long term view. I do not actively hold short positions in RY, but have in the passed and certainly will in the future. That said, day-to-day fluctuations do not change my long term view. Come back here and we can talk about RY in 6 months- 1 year.
This is all simply my opinion mind you.
Green Machine
For disclosure, I swapped some back into [email protected] to 4.05 (tsx), and started anew WJX (tsx) – this is in case you are interested in what my 1% laughable gain leads to. That’s 2.7-3% on my S position alone today just on the close, add the fact I went out at 5.30ish range on Thursday and bought back at a 4.7% discount from that position. I’ve done my math on this one.
My RY into the other financial last Friday didn’t astound me like I had hoped, but I am still holding more shares in that company than I was on Thursday.
I’m not good at timing a short like you seem to have been over your record, but perhaps you can now see the merits in my system in just a two day span. Keeping my money in the market works for me – at least until it doesn’t.
RY fucked? S fucked? XOM? IMO? Then we are all fucked so we can go fuck ourselves. And if we are all fucked, then the shorts will eventually also be fucked when we are at zero and they have covered there will be nothing left to buy that will go up and nothing to spend the cash on since it too will be irrelevant and we will all be fighting for food so intelligence won’t matter.
The market shall always rise in the long run, so I play that hand.
10banger
Absolutely, I think people should listen to the following, “Buy stocks like you buy your groceries, not like you buy your perfume.”
I would disagree with you in one aspect. While, stocks in general “always go up” . Individual names go up and down. Individual names get taken over, or bankrupt. Stocks, come into favor and go out of favor. Almost as if they were clothing. Just take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, look at how much it has changed.
I think the best strategy is certainly to cycle your winners, and drop your losers.(not the other way around)
Anyways, I mean no disrespect by having an opposing view. I just run a different strategy, because quite frankly this market is fucked.
Green Machine
Yes, agreed on the “past performance doesn’t indicate future earnings” potential of RY – I think they’ll be fucked this quarter – but in the short term, that presents a great trading opp. to swap in and out of banks in the same sector. They always trade based on the last quarters earnings.
Disclosure: Long term I favour TD and BNS over RY. There will be no bankruptcy of banks (BAC JPM GS) or we will all be trading in this shit hole for a long time to come. I put together a strategy to trade them (i.e. vs. oil, vs. insurance, vs. mining, etc.). Then when the pop comes, I end up and up and up due to the springboard effect only with less capital gains to pay since I trade losses as well.
10banger
It has been my strategy for along time, to short Canadian banks to the brink of bankruptcy. Only to buy them just in time for the Canadian Government to bail them out.
Your right, they won’t go bankrupt, but I don’t believe they will keep a steady dividend either. Anyways, you obviously think otherwise.