I’m sure many of you have read the blog post from NYT making the rounds, Beware the Jobs Report of July, which I found very informative. It explains that the Bureau of Labor Statistics “adjusts the (NFP) number to eliminate recurring fluctuations — such as from teachers going on summer break — so long-term trends are more visible.” Then they reveal that “some economists believe economic turbulence has disrupted the calibration of those adjustments, undermining the accuracy of the bureau’s estimates.” The main point of the article is that this distortion will be especially apparent in tomorrows NFP report because ” (the July report) is annually adjusted by a larger amount than for any other month save January, when holiday workers lose their jobs.” That seems to be the obvious take, but my first thought went the other way. All year you’ve been hearing about in an election year, the government will “massage” the numbers to make the economy seem better than it actually is. They obviously haven’t done that yet this year. I mean look at the last 4 reports. So, what better time to start than right here when all they would have to do is increase the “seasonal adjustment” from -1.3m to -1.1m and BAM, 200k jobs. Now, I don’t know yet how I’m going to play #NFP. This was just the first thought that came to mind when I read the NYT blog, and everyone else seem to have the opposite reaction. Right now I’m holding 50% of normal size from RTH at 1356 with a stop at +3. I’ll wake up and figure out what do in the morning. I mean, I’m still not sure whether we want a good report, or a bad one. I thought we were still in “bad numbers = QE3” mode, but my stream seems to suggest we want a good report. Anyway GL.

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