PRESIDENT’S DAY RALLY

We’ve been preparing you for the flag-waving holiday rally. It is upon us at the moment. Expect a move to the top-end of our trading range near SPX 1100…

Plus if you were listening and watching the simulcast of my radio show this morning, I said that “I had a feeling” and to “get ready for the rally”.

Value-added, motherfuckers.

We will post a full portfolio review before the week is over.

Buying Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. [[HCBK]] here. Buy under 13, stop 11 and target the 17 area. Plus, enjoy the 4.7% yield…

So, market’s looked like they were gonna chill today as dealings are thin because of the world-ending blizzard. Instead, Bernanke springs some shit on us. Rates will eventually rise. Obviously. Tell me he didn’t get a call from the White House telling him to do that…Funcking pathetic.

Markets continue to bounce in the 1040-1100 trading range and as of the open was smack in the middle of the range. Perfectly in the middle. Now, the Bernanke comments are setting us back and the dollar is running hard to test its recent highs at DXY 80.60. Expect buy stops to hit above that number, sending the dollar higher. Everyone is waiting for the “engineered” dollar disaster, but with Europe imploding, the dollar fall is on hold and that is hurting stocks and commodities today.

But don’t expect too much damage in front of a flag-waving holiday. Markets observe President’s Day on Monday and have a tendency to run in front of holidays, so maybe we can stick near the mid-point of our trading range.

We added an oil play Oceaneering International [[OII]] yesterday and it was premature. Keep the 51 stop. We may buy more on today’s weakness and I still like the company and the stock.

Also recommended Telecom Corp of New Zealand (ADR) [[NZT]] which I think is right on the money. Bought just under 8 with a 7.50 stop and a 9+ target.

A quick review:

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] bought @ 149 with a 147 stop, and a 175 target. We are up slightly.

Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] bought twice @ 12.50 & 10.50. Average cost is 11.50. Keep a 9.50 stop and a 15.00 target. We are flat.

Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. [[KLIC]] bought @ 4.90. Set a 5.90 stop and a 7.50 target. New buyers should target 5.50 to buy. We are up big.

eBay Inc. [[EBAY]] shorted @ 24. Keep a 26 stop and an 18 target. We are up nicely.

The waters remain choppy, and the dollar is a problem for stocks and commodities. But I don’t expect we will breakout or breakdown from the trading range that is being established as we speak.

Also buying Telecom Corp of New Zealand (ADR) [[NZT]] Buy 8. Stop 7.50. Target 9.00

Adding Oceaneering International [[OII]] to the package. Buy under 54. Set a 51 stop and target the 60 area…

As predictable as the establishment of this new trading range is (SPX 1040-1100), the move from peak to trough–and back up again–is sometimes astounding.

After plunging to SPX 1045, markets rallied back sharply at the close of last week. There have been plenty of conspiracy theories about The PPT (no, not ours. the folks who work on Maiden Lane) or some other government functionary buying futures and stuff. But that was not the case. There are legitimate buyers at obvious levels of support. There are also plenty of traders willing to take a risk at those levels of support. Of course, should support break on volume, then everything stops and reverses.

Dropping a quick 100 points in the SPX has served to change the tone of market participants, from wildly bullish to scared shitless and hoping for a break. Well, they’ve gotten one today. I’m not sure exactly why it has come today, but my guess is that it is a delayed reaction. This rally should have happened yesterday (Monday), but perhaps there were a few Super Bowl hung-over money manangers who missed work.

Banks are bouncing around, but not doing shit. It is the dollar plays that are going apeshit. While the metals themselves are bouncing, they remain in a downtrend. It is the related stocks that are seeing monster short covering action. Maybe someone “senses” that the dollar has gone as far as it will for now and is about to be “engineered” lower. That would certainly put a wicked bid under the market and the SPX 1040 bottom. Other than that, I couldn’t tell you why today’s rally is so dynamic to the upside. Maybe the media will invent something for our enlightenment.

Our positions are holding their own and there will be some new ones shortly.

ADDENDUM: Apparently, it is all about the Greece bailout. Can it be? Aren’t GOOG & APPL together bigger than the GDP of Greece. I kid…But no, really. Is that the excuse for this monster advance?

We are now half-way from the bottom of our range to the top. This is the make or break time. I expect a little retracment and traders to take some quickly-earned profits. Then a day of pause. Then another spike towards the SPX 1100 target…