AVD Volume exploding…

We recommended to buy AVD several weeks ago near 7.50. It rallied to 9.50.

In the recent market sell off, it hovered in the mid-8’s and we asked that you accumulate below 8 whenever you get the chance. Well, it dropped almost back to 7.50 on Tuesday.

The stock’s average daily volume is 100k shares. Something is up today as volume is exploding, already at 750k shares in just the first hour.

This is what happens when a stock is “discovered”. My guess is that Goldman’s upgrade of Monsanto is awakening interest in this stock. Or someone could be accumulating it for an buy-out.

Our target remains the 10-11 area…

ADDENDUM: The stock has traded over 1.4m shares, or 14x average daily volume. The stock had been up as high as 8.96 and it has reversed to trade as low as 8.08. Obviously there is something going on, but it may simply be a large buyer has found a seller for accumulation. By day’s end the buyer could own stock in the 8.50 or midpoint of the days range.

We published this SPX hourly chart in our premium service last weekend. The setup was obvious though the “obviousness” of it gave us reason to be suspect in this rail-thin and wicked market.

But once I got around to not over thinking, my mind was at ease in anticipating this rally that will take us to the 1120-1140 area…

I know, I know. The crys of “bullshit rally” are being shouted from the rafters today. But get ready because yesterday was some kind of crescendo. The end of the day sell off was a beautiful bear trap.

There are many very large energy-oriented funds that were forced to liquidate. Someone bought a lot of stuff on the cheap. I’m not saying we are through hammering out and testing the low-end of the trading range, but I am saying that we are not falling off the cliff right now. Which means we rally to SPX 1120 over the next few days/weeks.

The fever is broken. Now get outside and enjoy the clearing skies!

We’ve again reached another extreme moment of bearishness. Do you think the energy economy will disappear by next quarter?

There are only 2 good things that will come out of the Gulf spill. The first are current prices of oil service stocks. The second is that maybe someone is trying to figure out a way to get off the dirty teat of oil. Good luck with that.

Markets are attempting to hammer out the lower portion of our trading range. Everyone and their mothers are waiting for SPX 950. Not gonna happen at this time so don’t hold your breadth (lol).

Yesterday was a seminal day. Expect to do lot’s of work around 10k. But things got a little lopsided…

BTW–OII couild be up 10% today after dropping 27% in 3 days…

Buying 1/3 position in OII under 41. Will buy more at 36 if I can.

This is obviously down because of the deep-water drilling moratorium, but also through “guilt by association” because of BP. Every time you look at the leak, you see “OCEANEERING” in the upper left-hand corner…

They will suffer some earnings hits, but they are the answer, not the problem…Down from $68 since the leak, now near $41.

ADDENDUM: paid 40.45

10 year Treasury Chart-Art…