Gold is in the process of making a big, giant contracting triangle at the end of a decade worth of gains. The caveat is that I am forgetting about any of the economic or fundamental reasons for why gold should keep rising forever and just focus on the technical pattern.
Always thought triangles were considered continuation patterns? No?
Near-term maybe. Not big giant ones after a 10 year uptrend.
Scott, look at the daily. It looks much like a normal pattern of consolidation.
FD: Long GLD from many, many points lower.
How about this: $1600 before $1800.
BTW–the weekly is NOT a trading chart. I use it as a precurser to trend change.
I think 1600 before 1800 is hard to argue against. That would definitely not be outside of the range that has been established, while 1800 would require a break of the range to upside.
I would agree w. 1600 pre-1800 as well.
Hard to think of how we get out of this w.out a blizzard of printing… A down market (and down PM’s) will be the signal for BB.
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no way out for Europe without “printing”. but its not BB that needs to hit the button, its the ECB.
The ECB cannot… so BB will swap dollar lines… endless liquidity pools.
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I fail to see the usefulness in this observation. Gold’s making a top…but we’re at major support.
Okay.
Sometimes Scott does an amazing job of saying stuff while not really saying anything.
I don’t think I could be more clear.
And the support highlighted at 1600 was OVER 100 points away last night…
I think you could be a little more clear.
You’re using a weekly chart to claim that gold is in a short term downtrend. So are you bearish?
Then you say it’s at/near major support? So are you bullish?
Perhaps you’re just making some observations about the weekly chart.
Plus, there was support at 1600 whether gold was up or down 100 points. Not to mention that the gold futures were getting raped before you wrote this.
I just sometimes have a hard time making sense of your analysis or knowing what the takeaways are supposed to be. I tend to think it’s not my reading comprehension as I don’t have this same issue with the other bloggers on the site.
Check the 150MA. Been VERY consistent as support over the past few years. We’re sitting on it now.
Has not closed below 150MA since crossing above it in early ’09. Has bounced right off it at least 9 times since then. Definitely a trend worth noting.
Is that simple MA? Or EMA?
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Simple.
I seem to remember you posting this same comment very recently. The question is, how many times can we expect to return to the same well.
SNB meets on Thursday. CHF down vs USD, then Gold continues down. I have 1443ish I believe as my next fibo support.
Actually, for GLD it’s actually lower, from my notes ” on GLD, 143.27ish is a nice entry point. It is breaking 55MA support under 165..either it gets back over that,or not safe to enter…”
Peter won’t be upset but will instead see it for what it really is – A great buying opportunity!
Is he really a friend of yours BTW?
He is an acquaintance.
Scott nailed it. The pain is immense. Even when the market gets its snapback exuberation hope rallies, silver and gold haven’t really been going anywhere. I believe my decision to trade in silver was a mistake and will continue to be a mistake until the day that the printing presses are unleashed. That may be months from now. Scott are you shorting this or any other commodities? Or just sitting back in cash for now?
However, let me offer this contrary view. When a triangle (such as the one on silver) proceeds so far into its apex, it is not reliable to trust a “break” either way and could be a fakeout or simply invalidates the pattern in question as a reliable marker of anything.
the pattern of the Silver chart is WHOLLY different from that of the Gold chart…
Oh, could be. I have read in some places they follow each other, but maybe that’s wrong.
In that case, I’d like to hear your take on silver too!