We have all been kidnapped and have been held hostage. It’s only been for about four months but it seems like a lifetime–especially during the last month. We have all been conditioned, brainwashed and converted into believing what the market is telling us.
In the march to the magical holidaytime, the twice-baked economic numbers seemed fabulous. Like a rebirth. But today we are seeing that it was all just another lie. The numbers didn’t get better, they got worse.
To add insult to injury, prices of food and fuel are at multi-year record highs. They want you to believe it is supply and demand but that is another lie, just like the rise in oil to $145 in 2008. That march higher for oil is the template for the run in all commodities today.
We continue to march towards 2008 in every market as we know the Fed has another $100 billion for us through early February. The economic numbers don’t matter. Valuation doesn’t matter. Traders just want to catch the next 20% mover and the public doesn’t care how we get there. They will only care when the market goes down.
I am long 16 stocks in the CreateCoin portfolio with 15 of 16 highly profitable, up between 10-100%. But I so want to bet against the falsehood that is the market. The market that has us brainwashed to believe that nothing matters except the largest and most egregious government subsidy ever conceived.
Market indicator after indicator are falling to hitherto never seen levels and it is due to the rail-thinness of the market. There is nobody left trading. It is just a few Primary Dealers putting their ZIRP money to work. We wait and watch the buy programs run and then we follow, buying any manner of equity. We watch the prices and we believe. These past few days SHOULD have seen a significant correction take hold. But instead it has been another buy the dip moment. These last days are sealing the conditioning and the training to buy the dip no matter what.
This fabulous record-setting rally is currently in its 20th week. Being flat or up for 19 of the 20 weeks, it is the longest rally since our bottom in March 2009. I fear that it is the final phase of this almost 2 year old recovery-NOT just the beginning of something greater.
I know that you will tell me that its different this time because the economy and the markets are being “managed”. That seems true. But even with a new and vastly different market structure, I must remind myself that it is not different this time.
ADDENDUM: This phase ends with the push and a spike to Dow 12k in time for Valentines Day.
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Amen. Yet, I am long and buying dips.
So is most everyone else. Scary, ain’t it?
I agree with your sentiments. The market is definitely close to a top.
No wait, I mean the market should be dropping and I made that call 4 months back, but I’m still long stocks in my portfolio.
No wait, I called this market as being manipulated by the Fed, and so even though it’s gone up when I said it had topped out, it SHOULD be going back down because I said it would/should/could drop back in early to mid October.
No wait, I still think it will drop, I’m just not sure when, but I think it’s imminent.
No wait, I’m still long 16 stocks, so I’m actually a bull masquerading as a bear. Or is that a bear masquerading as a bull ?
No wait, I’m confused …
I think I’ve been very consistant. My detractors will tell you that.
First, you should replace “October” with November.
1. Market peaked in strength in early November.
2. Raise stops significantly or lighten up into strength.
3. Indicators are past historic extremes.
4. Valuations are much higher and so is risk in just one earning seaon.
5. I want to sell longs and short but “afraid” to miss the final spike that is coming. I just don’t know exactly when.
There. Does that clear up your confusion?
That’s the thing about fundamentals, macro, etc. Just focus only on the charts, leave the emotion out of it. If the stock breaks certain level, sell. Otherwise, hold. I learned the hard way. Macro and the state of the economy is a good topic for conversation but that’s about it.
that works for a while but is a very dangerous way to trade as the whipsaw will kill you…PLUS everyone else is doing the exact same thing…
I think $145 oil is part of the plan. GM and Ford wouldn’t sell nearly as many expensive new electric cars with gas back to 2 bucks a gallon. The next big innovation in vehicular design will be to replace the dash with a larger version of the Apple IPad allowing steering, navigation, music, etc. all on one touchscreen, sending Apple to $2000 a share with analysts adjusting their price targets to $5000/share.
Go back and listen to your shows from early to mid October.
Broadcasting the same message 4 months into a continuing rally makes one look rather silly, confused, hard-headed, in denial – take your pick. Many leading stocks have advanced much greater than the market averages.
The longer you keep this up, the more people will tune out. It would be better for you to admit that your timing was off. It’s OK to be wrong. EVERYONE is wrong at some point.
But you’re probably thinking you need to keep the same message up so that when the market dip finally does develop, you can come back and say, “I told you so !” LOL
I preached caution after a significant spike higher. If you also remember, everyone said to sell the announcement of QEII. I said not to. True, we went higher still.
There is no confusion here and no denial. Just an unwillingness to take significant risk after I NAILED the rally buying many stock cheaply in the summer down cycle.
You absolutely DID nail the rally off the summer down cycle. That was a VERY nice call when everyone was bearish.
But you left a lot of pizza in the box.
It’s OK to be wrong. Admitting as much is what separates the boys from the men.
I will clearly “admit” to missing out on some of the juice. But I was 80% long and managing risk was priority #1.
The beauty of the markets are that if you miss an opportunity, there is another right around the corner. Making up losses is much more difficult…
Oh, and when it does finally come, I be looking for things to buy…
No it really is different this time.
If the SP earns $200 this year its pe is only 7.
Get Long.
come on,you people know this shit is stretched like a rubber band. #1 fucking nobody,and i mean nobody,not gs,not a “fucking” hedge fund. not an institution or the bearded clam, are gonna fuck with the market till AFTER appl earnings.#2 oil needs to go up. government is broke they need your pump tax money yesterday thats why in the light of traffic being light for the last 5 months proves it,so why is gas so high.no one .is gonna rain on appl’s parade.the spoil will come afterwards.oh , yea. were building so many houses that lumber is as high as was in 05,06, 07. why
From Wiki: Stockholm syndrome is a term used to describe a paradoxical psychological phenomenon wherein hostages express adulation and have positive feelings towards their captors that appear irrational in light of the danger or risk endured by the victims, essentially mistaking a lack of abuse from their captors as an act of kindness.
After reading the NYT article about the (4) wiz kid bankers (or not) managing the feds funds, I would call it Corruption, throw in Bid Rigging and pilfering to boot. Visa versa, I think the Street is taking full advantage of their captors. or not? Dammit, now I am confused. OK, it’s just a bunch of monkeys trying to screw a football.
Very satisfied with Scott’s call. Go in and out of the market when it’s easy.
Wow, so many rear view mirror “experts.” Puts me in a mind of the fall of 2007. Greedy, too. We’ll see how good all of you are at getting out and staying out before you give it all back.
try getting out when the huge gap down is over a hundred points at the opening bell,cause thats how its gonna go down,every one will wake up to their pants on the ground before they know what hit em
The only people who get in at the exact bottom and then out at the exact top are liars. Scott is simply using a good risk reward strategy. Give the guy a break. We all know this rally will end one day, we just don’t know HOW it will end and it seems to me that risks are rising dramatically and it may not pay to hang around and try to snag the last few percent.
Scott – you handle all the BS from the negative posters with grace and aplomb. If it twer me, I’d give em the “screw off and die” reply — but that’s just me.
As to your blog comments, I’m so freaking froggy about this market I bought EDZ yesterday to go with my 14 long positions (none of which are the same as yours). Just can’t find the faith in this market because I think Ms Market wakes up one day soon and sees whose been steering the ship and craps all over herself.
Enjoy the blog and insight therein, keep it up.
It s/b the longest rally of this liquidity driven bull market, Scottt … as it’s the third primary wave and generally the best of the three up waves in a bull market. Not to worry though … this is just the 1st major wave within that primary wave and will be topping out shortly so you will get your major correction soon enough my friend but don’t be afraid to buy that dip cause it leads to the best rally of the entire bull … Buy the Big Dip!
Ha ha ha I guess your show will soon be free again after everyone who pays for your intelligent insight bails out and can figure things out for themselves for free ….buy buy buy until the end of July!!!!!!
dc,puhlease
Scott,
Up until Mid November you were “The Man”…Now, not so much.
All your previous calls are mute because everyone that was long “nailed it” up until November….Now?
At this point, unless you nail the EXACT top within like 3 points on the S&P or a day (max) on the calendar. The name Scott Bleier will be be synonymous with the word “Hack!”
So when is it gonna top Scotty ‘Boy????
Either cement your legend or admit your error in getting ypur clients out too early
Lay it on the line and save some face buddy….
“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” “I made my money by selling too soon.” Bernard Baruch
I only sold “some” of my stocks too early…
Legend? Thanks!
BTW–have a look at the win vs. loss stats in my CreateCoin Portfolio.