Today is the last day to officially own stocks in this, the first decade of the New Millennium.
Markets are uniformly trusted as Central Banks are assuring prices through asset buying. There has never been a time in market history that this has happened. It makes the Greenspan Put look like an AIG CDO circa 2006.
Equities are as lopsided as they have ever been and sentiment is at a bullish record. In just one earnings reporting season, the prevailing perception amongst market participants has shifted from “run for your life” to “everyone in the pool”. I think we had better get used to these types of swings as they could be with us for a long time considering sentiment will shift as a direct result of market action.
The headlines and talk of economic recovery is pervasive, just like last year. Remember?
Here, during these last trading hours of the decade/year/quarter/month, what is working is the commodity trade, plain and simple. This could continue until prices are are so high that nobody is left to buy. Then prices will crash. But we are not there yet.
There is a wicked equity and commodity correction that is imminent. Yet I cannot tell you the hour of its arrival. Plus, it will be bought by the “dips”. But watch out if the dip buyers cannot lift the market. When that happens, my strategy of raising stops and liquidating at our price targets will be proven correct. Of couse, my detractors will say “a broken clock is right once a day” or something along those lines. They were the same folks calling me a perma-bull just a few months ago.
Remember, most money managers are sheep in Brooks Brothers clothing. They will follow the mantra of what is working now. But the smart money is doing something else entirely.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
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Agree that we’re due for a nasty correction – and sooner or later, the “dips” wont be able to handle it. With predictions of 100$ oil and money managers going back into banks, I’d be interested to know what your top holding are and what you think the smart money is cooking up behind the scenes. I have lots of APA and OXY and you’ve given me further resolve to lift my stops. Good investor friend of mine just bought boat load of Jan13 calls on C and BAC. I don’t think I there yet…
Oh my, why haven’t I been reading your blog all aong?
Finally, someone who is making sense.
Well done, Scott.
The calming voice of reason at ibc.
dude,well fuckin said.LOOK AT DA LUMBER! this is a speculators market,step back fools.get off and on the bus at your own thang,while keeping the other eye on your own ass.
Yup and I just love when a Nobel Prizewinning economist shows his ignorance of the marketplace…
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
US is inconsequential. Yeah, thanks Paul K. Nice Nobel Prize, you and algore.
krugman is a retard.i wouldnt award this guy with a toy from a happy meal. evidently this jackoff never heard of lumber.and his thesis for resources in the good ol usa are so flawed,that i cant believe this guy holds any position in academia at all. let me point out,that china cant be consuming much in the way of lumber for any purpose,other than to prolly make a crate for shipping purposes, these people still use bamboo for godamn scaffolding while building tall buildings wtf. yet lumber is an inch away from where it was the day of flash crash……and now asswipe roubini coming up with his double dip in housing.so who’s using all this lumber? speculators.thats why when you go into hd,low, and the others,millwork is just rotting on the shelf and gettting twisted beyond use and keeping very little supply vs demand. krugman, i have an idea,go out and get a real mans job,where you actually have to use some of these resources. and someone actually believes this guys’ dribble.
My guess and opinion is that he’s getting paid. By who, I cannot say…
Either that or he is completely and totally deluded and living in the same fantasy world as the buyers of these commodities at these price levels…
actually it sad is what it is. there is nothing left in this country accept its natural resources,and if were not wise,this government just might be selling exclusive rights to those resources to asshole countries who got money,but dont give a knats ass whether they can be replenished or not. the reason for all this distraction is,that they need to push earl way up,when that gets pushed up, the rbob goes parabolic,and that is the main objective right now.1: cant raise taxes on the working folks.2: the 23% of folks that are unemployed dont spend money,and gas isnt bought if gas isnt bought,it is immeaditely felt by municipal,and governmental bodies,where’s the demand for oil,there is none.but the speculation brings it so that the rbob,and the at fuel pump price is fast in reaction to rbob. 3: so what we are witnessing now,with the exception of metals,is all commoddities rising in price,even if there is no correlation to demand.its easier for all the commodes to go up along with oil,then if oil being the only commode to rise and not the others,would look to suspicious.
FYI, 2010 is the first year of a new decade.
2000-2009 was a ten year span…
darn tootin. Your right! my bad…
He gets it right sometimes….lol
Actually, Scott was correct before. The first year was the year 1, not 0. 2001 was the first year of the new millenium. But we all celebrated 2000 anyway. Why wait a year for a good party?
You will be correct if the market falls off soon. The clock thing doesn’t matter.
It is not about being “right” for me. I can live with a little wrong (early) if it lowers my risk profile and protects my profits…
OMG its a broken clock is right twice a day…Gheezzz seems like your never right about anything are you…..but I’m sure you’ll say you were right in the summer about buying …well alot of people were saying that also…so whatever….don’t miss the January effect rally!!!!
AM & PM, Dipshit
You’ve been amusing to me, but you’ve become a pain in the ass.
Get your licks in cuz you’ll be banned as a New Year’s Resolution…
I just like to rattle your cage……why ban me??? ….cant take the opposite view once and awhile…whatever hope you have a Happy New Year
I apologize about all the negativity towards you, my mom just said if I don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything at all…I was drinking a lot of Sam Adams and was not really thinking…so I will agree with you from here on out.
Never say you’re sorry, it is a sign of weakness…
Unlike most, I’ll accept criticism graciously when appropriate. But keep a balance or I’ll have to come to Penn State and tar and feather you personally…
Holy Crap you know where I live…that’s creepy man
hahahaha holy shit THEY ARE WATCHING YOU!
Brooks brothers clothing??? Don’t they sell that at airports?
I would like to think that some Tom Ford or armani at minimum is in order here
Well i just went to 100% cash in my 401k. I don’t know whats going to happen, but I believe 2004 has been a good model for this year, and it continues to be so leading into the new year. Definitely a decent time to take risk off the table. I will probably buy a 5% market dip though.
a 5% overall market dip will lead to most mid/small cap trading-oriented stocks falling 10-20%
Huggie thought you were short all this time. (ie Dec) Did you sell all your shorts?
Getting the feeling that dip is going to start today…I’m putting out a few shorts like CROX & DLTR.
I better get into this QID !!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?
i was never net short, but i was close to balanced….i tried a long china/brazil, short japan trade that has nearly decapitated me.
I am mostly long in my personal accounts right now, but my positions in china and brazil are near their stops. I do have some puts on spy and gld, just to act as a sort of hedge (if that is even possible any more).
long story is i have had the worlds worst trades on for the last 6 weeks and i’ve already taken an 8% haircut.
part of a system though so i assume i will pull through here at some point…..hehe
the bots are on auto-pilot until January
stocks wont go down until after big YTD gains are locked in and in stone
did anyone notice the Yen rally?
Hey Scott,
What about financials? They’re breaking out at the moment, and don’t you think they need to be weak in order for the market to fall hard?