Watch The Brokers

The last Fed meeting we saw a nice move in the brokers, so again, I’m watching E TRADE Financial Corporation [[ETFC]] for a breakout.

Disclaimer: I’ve been long ETFC for a while, it’s like watching paint dry, but when it finally breaks to the upside it’ll have your momma saying BTFO.

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Here are a few homebuilders to put on your radar:

The first is Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] , who received some love from Citigroup. I love the chart as it is breaking out from a descending wedge, the 50 & 100 day are right underneath, which should provide pretty good support. I like the idea of buying this here with strength in the group.

Next up is Fly’s fav, Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] . The stock is sitting right @ the 50 day moving average, which makes this trade easy to manage– buy here, set stop stop below average.

And, can’t forget about H-O-V-A, I mean Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. [[HOV]] . This one has pulled back after breaking out above $4.29, I like the idea of going long here with a stop below 4.29:

I will likely step to the sidelines and wait for the last hour of trading before making any trades, as we have the all important Fed meeting this afternoon.

Other top picks include: SD, DCTH, YONG, ETFC, RIMM, IPI, VMI, JCP, & CCME

As always, check to view my live trades inside The PPT.

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We had a great finish in the Sweet Sixteen.

• In the North, SC & Judge Smalls take the win.
• In the south, Popimp & Mushrooms remain victorious.
• In the West, mrKCbill will get to face Position trader.
• And, in the East, we have a great match-up between JakeGint’s Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] & KreppaNu’s SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]]

Should be another great week. Have a good weekend everyone.

Top pick: Fly’s march madness pick, SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]]

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Here is one of my favorite technical setups, the high and tight bull flag.

Check out this beauty in Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]]

Normally, if the stock can break out of this flag pattern the stock has a high probability of exploding to the upside. I’m a buyer on strength for a trade.

We have a bunch of great technical setups inside The PPT tonight, Scott even has one on his site. Be sure to check out his new premium service, it’s free for 7 days, what are you waiting for.

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Down to the sweet sixteen, and we have a tight one in the north between the two teams.

In the south, PoPimp, who beat me with his pick in WEMU, is looking to lock up another game as he has been on fire throughout the tournament. Mushrooms also looks to be finishing off another opponent with his pick in DYG.

In the west, Position trader is looking to beat ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , a fav going into this game, with an airline, US Airways Group, Inc. [[LCC]] . I got to pull for my man mrKCbill, but we may see an upset here late in the fourth with Tex’s pick McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]] as oil has a chance to run here.

In the East, it looks like KreppaNue is going to face the winner of JakeGint & CA matchup– we have a tight one there.

Here is what I will be watching tomorrow:

Long:

• MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. [[WFR]] BTFO today, I’m a buyer above today’s high for a trade.
• First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] A buyer above 112. The stock acted very bullish today, and on further strength I will look to get long the stock as a hedge to my puts.
• Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] has a beautiful bullish flag developing. I’m a buyer on strength.
• E-House (China) Holdings Limited [[EJ]] Flag developing after a good earning report.
• Intuitive Surgical, Inc. [[ISRG]] A buyer above $360. Volcano Corporation [[VOLC]] a buyer on strength. Buyers of both with strength in the sector.
• Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] , Holly Corporation [[HOC]] , & the rest of the refiners have been on fire as of late, continue to watch the group.
• Warren Resources, Inc. [[WRES]] , Parker Drilling Company [[PKD]] , Weatherford International Ltd. [[WFT]] , Rex Energy Corporation [[REXX]] , InterOil Corporation (USA) [[IOC]] , & McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]] , all oil related names, look good with strength in the commodity.
• E TRADE Financial Corporation [[ETFC]] on strength and volume, I’m a heavy buyer here. (own some currently)
• [[HEB]] ,a spec biotech, looks great here. Also, watch Rite Aid Corporation [[RAD]] here, a nice little flag developing/
• Cypress Semiconductor Corporation [[CY]] a buyer above $12.46

Short:

• Volcom, Inc. [[VLCM]] at the top of it’s channel, on a weakness I like this one on the short side.
• eBay Inc. [[EBAY]] at the top of it’s channel. Scott is short this name, so I like it as a short on overall market weakness.
• If we see weakness in the overall market, along with weakness in solar, look to get short First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] here with a stop above $112.30.

Note: I finally bought a GMCR Keurig today, based on Fly’s recommendation, however I do not drink coffee. Maybe I can develop an addiction.

And, I will also post a few of the charts tonight in The PPT.

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JP Morgan had a great piece on solar stating that they believe this industry faces a number of supply and margin headwinds heading into C2H10. Notable calls has a great summary for those interested.

Looking at the chart of First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] one can’t help but to like their chops on the short side.

I still think this one is headed below 100 and added to my put collection today. It is possible that bad news is already priced in, but I’m willing to bet it’s not. Plus, I like the risk/reward.

JP Morgan is calling for a price target of $75-$85, that gives us about 20-30 points to the downside. If we use the low from Sept. @ 112 as our stop, that gives us 6 down/20 up. I’ll take that risk/reward any day.

If the market pullsback here, along with oil, this one will become a falling knife. Airlines were on fire today, could that be a tell of future prices of oil?

Puts in FSLR 4TW!

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