Last year I discussed a scenario in which we’d see a bull trap laid out in bonds. That technical set-up I laid out is happening here in $TLT.
If I am right, that move occurred today, right at my high target this year of $124-125.
I’ll discuss this in After Hours with Option Addict after the close, but I picked up $TLT puts for May.
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How do you feel about $CMCM? Seems to be reflecting a portion of the sentiment chart, just not sure if aversion or discouragement…
Draw us a chart and let us grade it.
http://i.imgur.com/TRrgrHF.png
I’m going to tell you to take that chart to a monthly. All price considered, I’d say all of that range on your chart is part of a low being carved out.
Thanks for the perspective!
Favorite financials setup?
I took a stellar entry on $GS calls today. June16 230’s for $2.10. .05 off the low.
You trading the broadening pattern or was it something else you saw?
Assuming it was the broadening pattern, how are you managing it? I ask because I took a stab at GS on the previous dip for a move back to the middle, but I watched the thing trade basically sideways before I got shook out last Thursday. The trade wasn’t necessarily “broken”, but it got to the point where I didn’t feel confident it could get to my target with only 5 days remaining, so I grabbed whatever premium I had left (luckily earnings kept the premium propped up a bit so I could get a little something back).
Looking back, I’m not sure I would trade that pattern again, simply because it can continue going lower and lower without technically breaking the pattern. At least with a wedge, prices are sort of forced outside the range at a known point in the future. Even if I bought more time, I think I would have been screwed on this one from a risk / reward standpoint.
Yeah, we’ve been talking about these patterns in AHWOA fairly often lately.
Alright, I’ll just wait until I have some time to watch if you’ve already talked about it there. Granted my entry wasn’t the greatest, but I was basically playing a break from the consolidation on the 30d if I remember correctly.
Had I gotten in at the ideal spot on Mar 27, I was just trying to figure out how I would manage that. Only thing I can come up with is a break to new lows. I don’t know, I just feel like that’s one of those patterns I don’t feel comfortable trading, and was wondering if you had some insight.
I us d the term ‘leg sweep’ for entries in stuff like this. The advantage is the break of a prior swing low, IMO.
Interesting, thanks for sharing. I agree that TLT looks bullish here and might be fixing to close that election gap (also consistent with Fly’s recent post showing TNX).
Will definitely be curious to see if a trap is being sprung…
Looks like it conflicts with your blog post though.
You’re right. I think it looks bullish, but I don’t have a position or else I could very well be the bull getting trapped!
In agreement and hope you are right. I added to losing position.
One of my favorite Al scenes.
Cuz she’s got a grrrrrreat ass!
vicious aren’t I
OA, Your thesis was that we would likely see a sell off in the mkt in May. Is that not bullish for bonds? haven’t has a chance to sit in on AH, wondering if your thesis has changed.
He needs to rethink his thesis.
Bro, you are top 5 worst on ibankcoin at anything analysis related. Take SNAP last night. First time you speak on it, first time it’s turned higher in weeks.
I have a scrapbook of your comments from early last year too…so don’t say anything about thesis. I can’t imagine you can think far enough to have one of your own.
SNAP is a POS stock that will end up like a TWTR. You’re focusing on days and I’m focused on months and longer term. But that’s fine if you’re happy picking up nickels and dimes off the sidewalk every day. Don’t worry, be happy OA ?
But dude, you say that, but that’s not the reality. There’s a reason you withhold trade related comments here.
@dragun,
Q4 last year I said May we’d level off.
We been leveled off for weeks now. Possible we’re already in the midst of the chop I said we’d see.
right on .. and thx
If you wanted to trap some bond bulls now would be a heck of a time to do it. Everyone and their mother is expecting that election gap to close, including me. But if I really had conviction I would have been buying calls 3 days ago.
Ballsy call loooks like a nice well shaped double bottom was just triggered, could be a trap or a face ripper.
can’t remember the last time OA talked about a Put trade hope it works
It was a few weeks ago. It was SNAP. It worked.
i missed that one all i heard about was the call trade,my bag
Jeff, why $124-125 target on TLT? I’m not seeing anything in any time frame that makes it look like that’s the area where it stalls/reverses. Is it that 127-128 looks obvious, so you think it doesn’t make it there?
Expand your time frames a bit and it should get fairly obvious. If not I can talk you through the chart in After Hours.
SNAP….. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSr6h5-fCU
Like, I don’t use FB, like you know, I use SNAP….
Putting myself out there, but I love $BX into earnings tomorrow. Buying June $33’s today.
Picked up the June 32’s for $.30. *
I’m curious about your view OA… as far as some of the regional banks- do you prefer a more shallow angle of consolidation or something steeper?
I’m looking at Key shallow, Fifth Third medium, and MB steep.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=KEY,FITB,MBFI
I’m usually interested in a structure more like MB. But for some reason i like the look of Key’s relative resilience this time around.
OA – NTNX shaping up here you think?
LOVE this one.
don’t look now but a whole bunch of other OA trades are working beautifully.
Shhhh….let the animals throw poop around for awhile longer!
You need to make your own sentiment chart of that.
shopping for exotic car= shut everything down.
taking shots at jeff and his family= buy everything.
I don’t have a chart…..but as I have said before this blog is the best sentiment indicator I have. When it gets ugly I get buying
I agree. Shorted $zn_f last night
CLF she still can’t get enough of going down
It’s green. This is what bottoming looks like.
this one has a rare Fly/OA bullishness combo. It could be a mega winner.
i need more patience hate waiting on a stock that just sits there while the whole market goes up
Yeah man, wouldn’t it be so cool if everything worked to your hearts content? How cool would all this shit be?!
hey but the Q’s&TLT looking good so i’m happy
CRC biting me in the ass! Probably should grab the GS calls but going to wait it out and see if I get a lower price.