I literally froze at the open this morning, which has really sent my day into the shitter.
It felt like being attached to the rack, and pressure being applied to force me out of my positions. The longer the day has gone, the more pain it has inflicted on me.
I woke up to a $3 gain in $CL_F this morning. I’ve only done that one other time and that was Jan of last year. I also caught a gap up in $BABA, $AMZN and sat here watching them dwindle all morning waiting for the bounce.
Also, I need to apologize for the less frequent blog posts and discussions. My son is home recovering from a scary procedure he had last week, so my mind has been shot for about the last 2-3 weeks. Moving forward I will start to pick back up the tempo, discussions, and actionable ideas quite a bit.
OA
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When personal life is hard, trading is even harder. Been there. Hope all is better soon.
Hang in there champ! I bought the first dip in oil this am but ended up selling my entire position from Wednesday – still for a nice gain. Who’s holding oil over the wknd?
Nice pop in USG!
you sound like a great Dad, we all know about your trading acumen!
Hope your son is doing well. Hopes and prayers for him and your family.
Take care buddy, we appreciate you man!
wishing the best for you and your family
Best to your son and your whole family, Jeff.
Family first. Take care.
These posts are refreshing in that even the pros have trying days. Take care OA thanks for everything.
upmost respect 0A
If this is you checking out, I wish I had more employees that checked out for a few weeks. Seriously glad that things are going well with your family now and hope that it continues to improve.
He’s been doing so well. Surgery went great. His recovery was slow at first, but he’s home now walking around, and acts so happy. He’s sleeping better and acting better, which is a pretty solid sign that the procedure made a huge difference for him.
You guys are a classy group, thank you all for the warm comments.
The posts, ideas, and AHWOA have been great. Nothing more important than family. Hope all is well
All the best champ
The best to him, you, and family. We’ve been brewing a fresh batch of FOMO but we’ll save you some.
No need to apologize. I’m amazed you held up so well through the ordeal. Family first!!
OA – family first, that goes without saying.
Same experience on crude this morning. I guess I got greedy and wanted to see that $36 level hit. I sold midway through the morning, well off the highs, but i guess better than where it is now. Didn’t want to hold over the weekend so i’ll look for monday ot tuesday to get back if we get a dip.
Kids are resilient – neighbor’s 5 year old diagnosed with a brain tumor, had it removed on a Thursday, was at home on Monday – adults take 3 weeks to recover. Been three months and you would never know she had surgery.
Jeff- hope your kid is ok. Nothing more painful than watching your kids suffer.
Can the Russell 2000 do the unthinkable and get to the P&F target of 1,204 by say June?
Top ticked.
The admission of a top tick can also work as a bottom tick here, in this particular context.
I’m just gonna shut my mouth from now on!
OA, best wishes to you and your family too. I’m very happy to hear that he is progressing forward and that the serious procedure is making an impact. The market will always be here; time spent with your family is limited. You’re doing the right thing.
Jeff, having good thoughts for your son and your family. God bless.
When you were talking about everything in AHWOA last night I almost threw up. I have a two year old and a 4 month old, and we’re looking at having to do a relatively minor surgery on the two year old and I’m losing my mind over it. I have so much respect for you and the family for making it through without a straight jacket. Best possible thoughts to you all. Trying to pull some money out of this nonsense market has to seem like a cinch compared to that.
On a brighter note, I grabbed some $SPY puts from the 1960 level we discussed last night and closed them out for a double. First winning option play in a while, as I’ve been sticking mostly to building longer term positions in shares in this chop. Feels good to be back on the good side!
Glad to hear the procedure went well and you guys are back home. As a parent, that is what you hope and pray for. Hope you find sometime to relax this weekend.
Jeff, sorry to hear what you’re going through. My son had a serious procedure done over the summer also. He was in hospital for almost 2 weeks and recovery took several months. It was horrible (and that’s an understatement), but it gets better on the other side:) So glad to hear that your son’s on the mend as well. Take care and much respect to you and your wife:)
So does it make it any less bullish if we close just under 1950 today? I bet we close @ 1950 just to screw with ppl’s heads.
JNUG here for next week?
I read that Josh Brown article yesterday and couldn’t help but think just how much of an indicator that is on the public’s sentiment toward the economy and markets. I suspect we are at the tipping point here, much like in 2011.
The opportunity is probably a good deal smaller given we are much higher but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see new all time highs by July.
Thanks for the Boot Camp presentations! A most professional and intelligent job.
Thank you for the feedback. Very appreciated.
OEW: Tony looking for a 7 wave advance to end this corrective wave up …
Thurs: “Normally after a seven wave A advance, a seven wave C advance usually follows. This uptrend remains on schedule for a high sometime next week. Check yesterday’s update for resistance levels. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.”
Friday: “We can now count four waves up from Tuesday’s SPX 1891 low: 1938-1925-1963-1946. The market remains on schedule for a potential uptrend high next week. With today’s rally and pullback we noticed the market’s upside momentum is beginning to wane. The last four rallies of this uptrend have been: 66, 56, 45 and 48 points. The recent rally came in a bit shorter at only 38 points. Plus the daily RSI is beginning to build a negative divergence.”
This is setting up to be quite interesting next week. Above 1973 he will have to recount, correct?
No, he’s said the 1956, 1973 pivots and 1999 are three potential high water marks …
” … the market should again rally to one of the three levels noted above to complete the uptrend. This could/should occur by early March. After that, Major wave C should take the market to new lows for the bear market.”
Any technical analysts that thing we’re not heading lower eventually?
Ok. I’m trying to define that upside line in the sand, like he used to change his bull market outlook to bear market.
Most guys that are on the bear market cycle have an upside level they are using, at which point they’d have to change outlook. These levels will all be tested next week it seems.
Do you follow Carl futia? He mentioned it today I think
From OEW Comments:
“…Tony, as Major B upfolds and you read the waves, is your confidence building in bear market or some concern about strength of rebound (impulse) in past week ?”
Reply: tony caldaro says:
February 26, 2016 at 6:23 pm
“confidence unchanged
have known this is a bear market uptrend”
or maybe this better answers your query …
“Tony , Simple question , What is the highest level on the $spx that OEW would permit this rally to travel ?
Ex- 2046 would be ok and not change your bear market.
Reply
tony caldaro says:
February 22, 2016 at 11:01 am
“only all time highs will change the bear market”
That’s pretty clear!
Jeff did you see this
https://mobile.twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/703317108080283648/photo/1
OA
Wish your kid good health.
“Now with the market rallying strongly the past two weeks, a renewed call for Primary wave V underway is gaining some momentum.
Above is the monthly SPX chart from 1980. Observe how the MACD bounced off of neutral all through the 1980’s and then soared in the latter half of the 1990’s. It peaked in 1999, and then continued a long decline during the 2000-2002 bear market. After that bear market ended it again turned up, reaching a peak right around the high of the 2002-2007 bull market. Then again it started a long decline into the bear market low in 2009. During the 2009-2015 bull market it rose to a new high, peaking in late 2014. Observe that it is already declining, like the previous bear markets. This alone suggests the bull market ended in 2015, along with Primary waves IV and V, and a new bear market is underway.
We continue to label the five Primary wave, Cycle [1], bull market ending with a failed fifth wave in December 2015 at SPX 2104.”
“Targeting the potential high for this Major wave B uptrend we have been noting several levels of resistance.
First, retracements of the prior downtrend suggest SPX: 1963 (50%) and 1999 (61.8%).
Second, Fibonacci relationships of Int. C to Int. A suggest SPX: 1960 (50%), 1976 (61.8%) and 2028 (100%).
Third, the following OEW pivot ranges also come into play: 1956, 1973 and 2019.
When we combine all the relationships we arrive with the following: the 1956 and 1973 pivots, SPX 1999, and the 2019 pivot. The first week of March sets up for an important turning point in this bear market.”
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/02/27/weekend-update-541/
My Grizzley Adams avatar will be in vogue soon enough …
Man if I look at the action of XLU, TLT, GLD you would have thought the market was up huge on Friday. Bet it happens soon.
As I was traveling most of Thursday & Friday I maintained my long positions in oil & gas.
Oil: Still hanging in, but I’m a seller of a. 34.00 retest likely around 34.10 and will reduce my position by 1/2 going into Tuesday.
Natgas : Expecting a breach of 1.68 then a reversal. Bummed that I could not daytrade DGAZ to offset my UGAZ. Will likely buy UGAZ again Monday.
Be very careful of companies with funds that have in excess of 10% of their assets invested in their shares. Ie. VRX, AMZN, etc.. These names will continue to be sources of funds for the ENTIRE YEAR and their descent will lead to additional margin calls which will lead to even more downside.
Premium is cheap so easy to play the downside with puts. This should be the focus of the Bear Shitters, not Solar, Gold, Ute’s, etc.
This week’s idea list (Long): GPRO PYPL, SQ, SHAK, TSLA
Like PYPL but SHAK and TSLA not too sure at this time. I like SNA and WETF.
Sold QQQ Apr 108 calls purchased last week
Bot AMZN weekly 550 puts…done for the day