At the close yesterday, I discussed the topping pattern in the Russell, and in the ITB with my trading room members. The ITB had broken down yesterday, well ahead of today’s move. Now, if you look at the ITB and it’s components here intra-day, they’re ripping higher. Here’s an intra-day chart comparison:
If this is another bear trap, the builders will lead first. LEN, MDC, DHI, TOL, KBH and BZH are all positive here as I write this post.
I’m looking for a long entry in KBH, BZH or HOV.
Also, its important to note that the NYMO is -80 here.
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Very sorry to ask, but what is NYMO? Thanks.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Market timing indicator. I use this to buy bottoms as the market pulls back.
Not trying to conflict with your housing call , however , a few weeks ago as a comment in this space I stated that I thought the 10yr would rise and TBT wold be above 80 by the middle of August . Now I’ve reevaluated and believe that by the middle of Sept . the 10yr. will be 3% and the TBT will be in the 87 range .
If , by some slim chance an amatuer like myself proves correct what effect does this move have on your housing sector selections ?
And why the builders and not the renters ? Noone on the the planet owns more rentals than BX and these can easily be converted to sales .
Thougths on BX ? Thougths on TBT ?
Sorry, don’t have much to say about either. I think the builders are a better trade here.
I’m going to just say that as long as interest rates are under 5% (maybe even 6%) that higher interest rates is bullish for both homebuilding and stocks. The reason being that housing is still affordable enough to create a floor on demand, but the PRESSURE on people waiting to buy a home is to act now rather than wait for interest rates to go even higher. The larger factor though is lending standards and sentiment. Will more banks require 20% down and greater credit, or will they loosen up their staandards? Will there be more subprime lending again? More appetite for risk? I think ultimately these questions matter more than interest rates… just my take.
Thanks ! When I googled it, gave me nymo thread. ha.ha.ha… So bottom fishing time? I’m thinking pick up GMCR here, what do you think?
So if residential construction is the first to pop, does that mean Solar is next?
RYL