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It’s quite likely I’ll start to unwind my hedges tomorrow… especially those covering my PM and commodity positions.

It’s hard to discard the evidence that’s popping up all around me.   Yes, we’re overbought like a mother, and yes, we’ve not had a cycle turn in 44 days.   However, I’m seeing precipitous increases in my hard asset positions that point to increased currency devaluation insurance being purchased across the board.    The dollar has not yet broken down, but the metals are being bought in big, breakout ways, visible even in my longer term weekly charts.  

Here are three alone that start with “T,”  — and what’s more, none are even precious metal plays.   My Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] ‘s and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] ‘s are a story unto themselves.    I will likely start rolling back into those tomorrow as well, but for now, let’s look at these steel-related commodities…

First up is the old weasel Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] , which I’ve bot many times in the past, only to be disappointed.   It’s been earning merit badges these last three weeks, however, and looking like it wants to get back in the Troop:

As you can see, this should go to $17.50 relatively quickly (dare I say after a pullback to that consolidation breakout?), and the next major resistance is very close to $30.  

Now consider our Jacksonian non-PM friends.  First, the frisky Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] :

The volume from this week just cannot be ignored (especially given it’s only Wednesday!), and this Jackson looks like it’s only now getting it’s legs for a larger launch, likely inflation fueled.  $16 is an easy target, but long term, she goes to $24, I think.

Last, let’s look at fellow Jacksonian Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , which seems to be finally breaking out of a minor consolidation after a very quick spurt from the depths of despair back in March ’09.   This stock has come a long way from well below $5, but I think it’s got some to go as well:

As I mentioned, the price of gold and silver and the actions of [[GDX]] and Baby $HUI today also give some assurances with regard to my silver and gold positions.   While I will hope for some more pullback here, I will not expect it, and I will likely start pacing back up to “full position” in those names again as we go forward this month.

Best to you all.

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`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

“Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!”

He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought —
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.

And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.

“And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!’
He chortled in his joy.

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(Note: Above is actual eye witness report of my Fed Dollar battle today)

Not much to report tonight.  A little bit of pullback at midday, but I did indulge in some egregious silver miner [[CDE]] call options (as reported in the earlier thread, I took down 40 Oct. 17.50’s at $2.60) for a lark.  I really do think CDE will be a nice hold here for a bit.

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] had some run up today (to $14.87!) but then sold off to end the day at $13.40. This stock doesn’t seem to know what to do (it was up again 25 cents in AH), but I would guess it’s going to consolidate along with a bunch of other fast runners here, including even our $HUI index. I still like silver here, as I may have mentioned.

On the non-precious side The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] has broken out over $33 and my next target is $39. Despite all the other rockets popping, this is still my best performing Jackson at +99.6% since our May 1st inception.

Other non PM Jacksons that look strong here are again Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] bides its time, but reserves the Hippocratic Oath for now. Other non-PM “hoppers” I like include RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] , Calgon Carbon Corporation [[CCC]] , Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] and yes, even Alcoa Inc. [[AA]] .

The Jacksonian Portfolio stands at a “mahvelous” 31.4% return for the little more than four months its been in place. I thank you for your patronage.

See y’awl tomorrow.

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Today was that rarest of days — an entirely red painted day for the Jacksonians.  Even when the PM’s are having one of their regular group regurgitations, I can usually count on MON or NRP, or one of my less precious groups like TC , sturdy TBT or even blessed Mr. ANDE to come to my aid.   But not today.

All bloody red.  Impaled on the hard cold grounds of Boston to the tune of  some 2.5% down.  

 But that’s the breaks when you are building a hard money portfolio that was up some 25% in a month.  You are going to have to expect some pullbacks and yes, drawdowns.  We will talk about certain hedging strategies over the weekend and I will have a later post tonight to go over the specific individual Jacksons and some of my other picks in more detail.

For now, it’s off to a well-deserved libation and the start of my weekend.   I will see you all later tonight with the roundup.

Addendum:  I did add some today but just a bit.   1,000 shs of [[TIE]] at $11.01 and 1,000 shs of [[CDE]] at $12.50.   They looked like they had pulled back to some stability.  We’ll see, as I plan to add more of both in future.

Special Addendum:  Vincenzo explains to Fly what happened with the servers this afternoon:

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsU89R1A8M 450 300]

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Update:  “Bloody” Jacksonian Results for Today:

Name	11-Jun	12-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$   30.70	$ 29.79	-2.96%		Nice move down, next stop 20day–$26.40
EGO	9.15	8.79	-3.93%		Hung right on the 50-day @ 8.74
GDX	40.92	39.54	-3.37%		50 day at $38.39
GLD	93.70	92.17	-1.63%		POG under $940.
IAG	10.08	9.85	-2.28%		50-day @ 9.44.
MON	86.85	86.54	-0.36%		Relative strength is strong here.
NRP	24.21	23.85	-1.49%		Right on the 20-day line at 23.63
PAAS	22.61	22.04	-2.52%		Tested 20 day holding here.
RGLD	43.92	42.64	-2.91%		Bounced off 50-day EMA @ 42.22
SLV	15.13	14.63	-3.30%		PO Silver down 56 cent.
SLW	10.26	10.05	-2.05%		Held 20 day trendline pretty well.
SSRI	22.81	21.95	-3.77%		Closed just a hair below 20 day EMA
TBT	57.52	56.59	-1.62%		Continued pull back. 20 day @ 54.90
TC	12.13	11.76	-3.05%		Even TC needed a rest today.
TSO	14.98	14.98	0.00%		Flat, sold out.
AVG (daily)			-2.35%
AVG (monthly)			-2.67%
AVG (inception)			22.40%

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UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]

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 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?

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Stick with a winner,  “they” say — and Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]] keeps winning, up about 5% again today at $30.55.    As I mentioned, my medium term target for Mr. A is right at the 61.8% long term fib, or $33.00. 

The other Jacksons are back on the winning track too, with [[MON]] looking like it really does want to fill that gap at $85.20 (currently at $84.88) from the other day.   That’s probably where I will unload my MONGOLs unless I see some major promise in the very near term from MON.   Of course I will continue with my stock position.

[[TC]] is also rocketing again, up almost 7% as I type.  [[TIE]] is also moving on low volume, but is breaking into some new territory here, over $10.85.

Two others I have been holding for a while that are getting some action today are [[AMKR]] and [[SIFY]].   If SIFY is really taking off here, it’s brother in sub-continent, if nothing else, [[SONS]] may get a rise as well.    Good luck to all.

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Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the high.  The high you get from being right when everyone else (or most everyone) is wrong.   Let me tell you it can be a heady thrill,  as good or better than any triumphs on the athletic or academic plain.

But I implore you to forswear this high.   Do it today.   For it will turn you into a ravening frog-eyed hermit, cursing the clouds and the crowds for not bending to your superior will and your knowing…. your knowing.

This is a game of accepting defeat after all, shaking the Fly’s hand in a firm, but gentlemanly fashion and then moving on.  It’s  not a game of self incineration.   We must keep foremost in mind that a mass of blackened carbon cannot sally forth ever again.   He can only sit, and smolder and fume and smoke…. 

And curse his fate…

On alternating Mondays.

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   It looks like no one will be able to keep these commodities down for very long.   Is it the dollar?  Is it our interest rates?  Looming inflation?   I don’t know.   “KISS” — not the rock group but the acronym — instructs me to “K-eep I-t S-imple, S-tupid,” and so I will.

Just follow the trend til it ends.   

Is that instruction really that tough to follow?   Yes, the Devil Dog is in the details, but then you’ve many friends here (and on The PPT) with whom to consult.   We shall not leave your side despite your sweaty palms and mild B.O..      The bio-techs are still working.  Don’t ask me why, I blame CA  for starting the conversation with a grainy haus frau in a smoke-filled bar in Washington Heights three weeks ago.

You know how the flutter of the butterflies wings in a crowded tavern leads to hurricanoes in the porcelain room?     I like [[HEB]]-rews here, and First Phillip-ians [[MO]].    Another stealthy bio-tech I’ve been mentioning is [[SVA]] which had another solid day.  Last [[BIOS]] could take off at any time.    Or not.  I like it in the low 4’s.

As well, the commodites are working their tiny little mono-muscles .   General Jackson’s [[TC]] rebounded with great vigour (sic) and newly acquired [[TIE]] (non-Jackson) looks good too.  Even the PM’swere not pulling back with the vigour I expected from this mornings sad state of affairs.  My goodness, the worst hit Jacksonian was our highest flyer thus far, Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]], down a little over 3%.    By the way, if he could see his way to $28.40 tomorrow, or close thereby, he would offer an excellent entry for all those seeking his agrarian charms.  

Let’s look at the rest of the Jacksonian Core Holdings list, with attendant commentary:

Name	8-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 29.12	-3.09%		Finally backing off a hot run. $28.40 entry.
EGO	9.27	0.32%		Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
GDX	41.30	-0.07%		Got our $40 target and bounced at support.
GLD	93.56	-0.16%		Hung on 20-day and 78% long term fib.
IAG	10.21	1.49%		Beautiful hammer off support, could be ready again
MON	82.79	0.99%		Still battling.
NRP	23.93	-2.33%		Still struggling with that $24 line.
PAAS	21.50	-2.63%		Another long tail doji, good EOD volume.
RGLD	44.10	0.05%		Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SLV	14.76	-1.67%		Tested $14.50 early, then up the rest of the day.
SLW	10.18	-1.83%		Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SSRI	22.13	-1.03%		Yet another hammer doji, this time on the 38% fib.
TBT	57.29	0.61%		$60 next stop.
TC	9.74	-1.81%		$10.96 near term target.  Another hammer doji.
TSO	15.68	0.77%		Wretched, but alive for today.
AVG		-0.69%

Let’s hang together shall we?   I’d rather not hang separately.

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