Not to get overly full of it (hah! me?), but the Jacksons are close to annual highs again.   What’s interesting is that most of the recent runup last week occurred on Friday, when the dollar took a significant downturn.   Now whether or not this is going to be a headfake or not should be apparent very quickly, I believe.

The only thing that gives me some pause is the [[TLT]] runup here.  I just can’t believe that lower discount won’t get a snapback here soon, and with it another pullback in the market.  Right now I continue to believe the  [[UUP]] will continue to weaken and $USD will head to its lows of $71 again.   

No need to mention, if the dollar does continue it’s retrace to the lows, the Jacksons and the other precious metals will continue to soar here.  As usual, I like the silvers, but of the non-Jacksons, Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] is the “most ready,” and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[BAA]] , and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] look tastiest on the gold junior side.

Happy hunting this week. 
_____________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	24-Jul	Change	31-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$       30.99		$      32.22	3.97%		$       9,728	0.23%		Over $32 new highs!  Bounced off 20-day
EGO	9.27		10.00	7.87%		$       9,370	0.44%		Huge day on Friday, should cont.
GDX	39.90		39.77	-0.34%		$     12,035	-0.02%		Another big hop on Friday.
GLD	93.41		93.35	-0.06%		$     10,736	0.00%		Lifting off  20 and 50 day here.
IAG	11.11		10.56	-4.95%		$     13,021	-0.39%		Also lifting off 20 & 50 day.
MON	84.16		84.00	-0.19%		$     13,327	-0.02%		Over 200 day still.
NRP	23.00		23.45	1.96%		$       4,867	0.06%		200 day @ 23.70, bo @ $24
PAAS	19.68		19.71	0.15%		$     11,838	0.01%		Launching through 20/50/200
RGLD	41.78		41.08	-1.68%		$     11,351	-0.11%		Above 200, testing 50 day
SLV	13.66		13.70	0.29%		$     11,129	0.02%		Also launched Friday, big move
SLW	9.23		9.18	-0.54%		$       8,917	-0.03%		Over 20/50/200 again.
SSRI	20.08		19.67	-2.04%		$     11,443	-0.14%		Over 20/50/200 again.
TBT	53.19		49.43	-7.07%		$       9,847	-0.42%		$48 looks likely
TC	14.75		14.55	-1.36%		$     11,976	-0.10%		Coming out of pullback here.
TCK	24.49		26.29	7.35%		$     17,480	0.77%		Just a monster.
Cash (000)	$     16.89		$    16.89	0.01%		$   16,891	0.00%		Same as last week no new buy/sells
AVG (weekly)				0.20%		$ 183,957	0.30%
AVG (monthly)				9.85%		Actual
AVG (inception)				23.07%		Return	22.64%

Comments »

Make no mistake, we’re still in the midst of a full out Horatio Nelson-type naval battle, here, with the combined cannonades of inflation and deflation, public & private sector debt, multi-headed “government assistance,” increasing taxation, shrinking consumption and worsening unemployment all being fired in unison at Her Majesty’s Portfolio Cruiser, the H.M.S Winship.

Luckily her sides are reinforced with a near-impenatrable alloy of silver, gold, molybdenum and all the various metallic crap that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] pulls out of the earth.   For weapons systems, she’s got the finest grain elevator launchers of the fleet, courtesy of  The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , which are in turn able to switch over to ethanol firing nozzles ready to inebriate the various Treasury pirates swinging off their black ships in boarding party fashion.  It doesn’t take much.

Speaking of those Treasury pirates, Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott himself would trade all his dilithium crystals for a shot at the defense shields provided by [[TBT]] , the “un-Treasuries” which will keep our ship sound and well-tarred in the coming T-Bond puke, courtesy of our trading partners, formerly known as “Barnum’s Finest.”  Looks like I should’ve grabbed a couple more of those on Friday as they bounced right off the pullback, but I was remiss.  Maybe Monday.

In the meantime, I’m feeling increasingly good about the prospects of the overall market (at least short term), and of my gold & silver plays.  Let’s take the latter first:

That monster stick on the weekly off the channel bottom, and through the 50% fib line is giving me the warm and fuzzies.  The outrageously cautious may wish to wait until we break that downtrend line, and guess what?  You’ll still be better off than those who bought at the end of May, early June.  

 Here’s the other reason I really like the sound money plays here:

 

I don’t know about you, but I think the cards are pointing to a less expensive dollar again.  Odd, no?

For my part, I will be collecting more juniors here, including Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , [[BAA]] , [[EXK]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , and my new favourite (sic) Sir Walter’s Scott’s knight in shining armor — Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] .    Of course all the Jackson’s are great as well, but especially the silvers — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , and [[PAAS]] .

Last, I think it’s imperative to realize why the dollar is getting skunked here.  Part of it is the deficits and debt we’ve already pledged to fund with the help of our suckers, er, trading partners.

 Part of it is a result of the promise of even more ridiculous legislation being rammed through Congress right now by feckless Congresscritters who are not even reading these bills.   Take a look at some of the yeoman’s  work done by retired Marine Peter Fleckenstein on the first 400 pages of the House health care monstrosity.   Really, if you were just thinking that they could get this through without it having any effect on you and your family — well, you’ll see that you’ve had your head in the sand.  

This is nothing less than the largest freedom grab in our country’s history — bar nothing, zero zip.   Try and read Peter’s parsing without getting a chill down your spine.

Last, I’ve included the Jackson Review.   I really should have allocated more cash last week.  I will do so for sure this week, so as not to continue lagging the performance of the straight stocks.

________________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	16-Jul	Change	17-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$    29.30		$     28.47	-2.83%		$              8,596	-0.15%		50 day still not out of question ($26.40)
EGO	9.20		9.21	0.11%		$              8,630	0.01%		Could be due for a little more pullback
GDX	38.33		38.64	0.81%		$            11,695	0.06%		Consolidating
GLD	91.98		91.93	-0.05%		$            10,573	0.00%		Over 20 & 50 days, but consolidating
IAG	10.05		10.22	1.69%		$            12,602	0.13%		10.60’s next resistance
MON	75.74		75.41	-0.44%		$              4,423	-0.01%		Pulled back, as expected.
NRP	22.89		23.12	1.00%		$              4,799	0.03%		Overbot, but still strong
PAAS	19.12		19.24	0.63%		$            11,556	0.04%		200 day @ 19.27
RGLD	40.59		40.67	0.20%		$            11,238	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.09		13.17	0.61%		$            10,699	0.04%		Back over 200 day, but overbot/.
SLW	8.39		8.48	1.07%		$              8,237	0.05%		$8.50 major resistance.
SSRI	18.76		19.15	2.08%		$            11,140	0.14%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	52.00		53.56	3.00%		$            10,669	0.19%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.81		12.36	4.66%		$              5,798	0.16%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	20.03		21.06	5.14%		$            14,003	0.43%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	20.35		20.64	1.44%		$              4,159	0.04%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$  26.42		$   26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				1.13%		$       175,236	1.17%
AVG (monthly)				4.03%		Actual
AVG (inception)				17.50%		Return	16.82%

Comments »

 

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] is the strongest of the litter, here, and most of the precious still have work to do.  The silvers in particular are giving me agita, but only in that they are making me wait.

I bot some more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] today as it tested its 38.2% fib, and [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] had similar (though not as severe) pullbacks today.   Seasonally, we’ve entered into a slow period in the PM’s, but I am just not willing to sell anything right now, given the precariousness of the bond and dollar situation.   Sure, we could have more strength in both, but I just keep looking at the amount they have to sell this week (hat tip to Scum Bucket), and… well, let’s just say hard money is looking a lot more appetizing, and I’m getting ready to reload on more [[TBT]] . 

Of my non-Jackson’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] was actually a gold miner that was up today, and I’ve already mentioned that I increased my position in Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Pretty soon I’m going to look like a gypsy Queen with gold and silver (and a touch of platinum, though I’ve yet to add to my starter position in [[PTM]] yet) dangling off my fingers, toes, ears and dreadlocks.

But that’s what our major theme is going to be here, folks, for the duration, so get used to it.  Soon, you’ll thank me for my persistent nagging.  In fact, it’s quite likely that someday, you’ll be adorning your children in “just 4 Kids” NY Giant paraphenelia in my honour (sic), and sending them off to college with tuition bills paid for in gold doubloons and pieces of eight.

I have every confidence.   All I need is the patience of a Bengal tiger in the deep brush on the annual Marlon Perkins’ Eat a Safari Tourist Day.  

Non PM picks I like, if you’re interested, include [[BIOS]] and Health Grades, Inc. [[HGRD]] here.   Best to you all.

Name/			%
Ticker	2-Jul	6-Jul	Change		Comments
ANDE	$                 30.89	$               29.67	-3.95%		Bounced off 20 day, sell on break $28.90
EGO	9.25	8.75	-5.41%		Closed a cent over the 50-day ($8.74)
GDX	38.31	36.94	-3.58%		Gapped down, doji’d, 200 day $35.94
GLD	91.25	90.76	-0.54%		POG $925 headed for $900?
IAG	10.34	9.93	-3.97%		Bounced off 50 day, patience, a keeper
MON	71.96	73.26	1.81%		Bounced as I suspected, but vol. sucks
NRP	20.77	20.70	-0.34%		Still oversold, but hanging in.
PAAS	18.22	17.83	-2.14%		Looking weak, still.
RGLD	41.52	39.04	-5.97%		Below 200 day EMA, looking weak
SLV	13.16	13.10	-0.46%		Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40)
SLW	8.40	7.75	-7.74%		Closed penny over the 38.2% retrace, I bot.
SSRI	18.79	18.20	-3.14%		Doji’d but could seek $17 one more time
TBT	50.73	50.94	0.41%		Looks ready to make a move
TC	10.36	10.07	-2.80%		Could target 50 day ($9.00)
TCK	16.09	16.88	4.91%		Chinese investment give a pop.
TZA	23.63	24.34	3.00%		Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$               13.44	$              13.44	0.01%		Same
AVG (daily)			-1.76%
AVG (monthly)			-1.14%
AVG (inception)			11.26%

Comments »

Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.

______________________

{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name	9-Jun	10-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 31.30	$    30.48	-2.62%		Still on the trendline.
EGO	9.21	9.13	-0.87%		Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX	41.09	40.80	-0.71%		Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD	93.83	93.86	0.03%		POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG	10.17	10.21	0.39%		Holding pattern.
MON	85.07	85.85	0.92%		Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP	24.11	24.01	-0.41%		Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS	21.71	22.15	2.03%		Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD	44.37	43.90	-1.06%		Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV	15.03	15.01	-0.13%		PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW	10.29	10.18	-1.07%		Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?
SSRI	22.59	22.75	0.71%		Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT	57.22	58.77	2.71%		Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC	10.58	11.32	6.99%		Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO	15.51	15.35	-1.03%		Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG			0.39%

Comments »

UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]

__________________________________

 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?

_____________________________________

Comments »

I interrupt this heavily precious metal-oriented blog in order to pay homage to The #1 Jacksonian Holding since inception (May 1st, our official/unofficial start date).   Mr. Anderson — [[ANDE]] broke the 70% mark today, in a little over a month’s trading.  

That’s kind a special, so I figure I’d give old “Keanu” a shout out.   Do you begrudge?  Better question — do you own it?

Mind you, I think the PM’s will eventually leave Mr. Anderson in the dust, counting spoons that aren’t really even there.   And believe me, the PM”s are not doing too shabbily as it is, with [[SLW]] up 41.84%,  [[TC]] up 41.49% and  [[PAAS]]  up 39.88%.   All of the golds are in the 30’s as well, with my three laggards being (in order) [[NRP]] +0.66%.,  [[TSO]] + 0.31% and negative nelly-monster  [[MON]] at (-2.76%).   The overall port, thanks to today’s recovery, is just under 26% for the entire period.  

What’s that you say?  Molybdenum’s not a precious metal?  Well it’s PRECIOUS TO ME!

For today I added a little [[EGO]] at $9.57 — my one holding that did not close in the black today (by two cents).   Ironic, no?   Still I wanted to fill that position and I think it’s coiling for a move here.   Everyone else recovered to some extent, but I would not bet my bottom dollar that we are out of the turbulence yet.   No, I shant sound the “all clear” until we’re  above the $400 mark on the $HUI, as mentioned in last night’s post.   We got halfway back, closing a bit above $387  this afternoon.  

As I said, use this time to accumulate positions in the Jacksonians, and in some [[GG]], [[AUY]], [[ANV]], and [[EXK]] — among the other PM’s of your choice.  Soon these prices will be but a dream to you, I fear. 

If you want some non-Jacksonians, I’ve been playing some biotech lotto with [[SVA]], [[HEB]], [[SFE]] and [[CTIC]].   I’m not even going to disclaim those, as if you dare playing with them you are too “certifiable” to hire a creditable lawyer in the first place.  Just. Don’t.

Two quick charts showing Mr. Anderson’s  progress.  The first shown when I laid out the first blog post on the idea, the second captured today:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

And today’s portfolio performance.  Be well all.

______________________________________________________________________

Name	4-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.22	6.45%		Up over 70% since 5/1
EGO	9.52	-0.21%		Got  more today @ $9.57 – can ya tell?
GDX	43.51	3.20%		$HUI back above $385 again ($387)
GLD	96.23	1.93%		POG up 2.2% today.  ($983.50)
IAG	10.55	1.54%		Gaps filled, but anemic.
MON	82.90	1.72%		Back to Tuesday’s close
NRP	24.24	3.86%		Healthy recovery for this sluggard
PAAS	23.29	4.30%		Up 5.6% since yesterday’s purchase ($22.05)
RGLD	46.19	1.34%		Low volume retrace
SLV	15.63	3.24%		POS back close to $16 again.
SLW	10.95	3.69%		Closed right on the 50% fib retrace
SSRI	23.97	4.04%		Over the cup again-exactly
TBT	56.00	3.72%		Back over 61.8% fib – $60 next target
TC	10.06	7.71%		Blew right back up again.
TSO	16.06	5.87%		Back in the long term green by 31 basis pts.
AVG		3.49%

______________________________________

Comments »