Checking in on Baby $HUI Again

Let the above visial metaphor serve you as caution both political and market-noteworthy.  And I would rather put the emphasis, if I could, less on any proposed lack of intelligence and more — as in this particular case — on a plethora of emotional overload.

I think we’ve all been conditioned since the dawn of the Modern Era to be less disciplined about our emotions and how we allow them to guide our better judgment.  Therefore I don’t derisively dismiss those who would choose a relative unknown, a blank slate — a cypher, even — over “more of the same” after years of increasingly partisan turmoil, economic upheaval and yes, war.  I don’t even calumnize those who would, with less than optimum due diligence, usher such a person in under the auspices of emotionally laden, even heartfelt notions of “change” and “renewal.”

However,  I do applaud those for whom the fugue is beginning to lift. 

A similar sense of euphoria has been brought up short recently, this time in our gold and silver metals and corresponding miners markets.  Despite my many assurances that the treacherous bull of the last nine years would careen about tossing off weak adherents like so many loosely tied marionettes, many are still appalled and even frightened by the pullback we’ve experienced over the last week.

That, however, is an example of the very psychosis of secular bulls.

Like mad men at the mazurka, secular bulls will make you dance for every penny, and some days you will dance your feet raw.  Sell calls, my friends — or take some positions down to a more manageable level if it’s worth your good sleep.  God knows, some nights it’s worth mine. 

Note my [[$HUI]] chart below for clues:

We may bounce here at the $400 breakout, or we may take the $HUI all the way back to the 61.8% fib retrace at just below $380. I am prepared for both scenarios, and I would suggest you gird your loins for both as well.  As for market specific stocks, I like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] tomorrow, off a bounce of the 50-day, which has served as strong support for a while.   That would be approximately $8.73.

My best to you all.

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Don’t let anyone ever tell you bear markets are tough. At least bears are conditioned for rapid snap-backs and so set tight stops and get the heck out of Dodge when the inevitable reversals come.

But try trading a true, secular bull if you want some real whiplash action. The older these things get, the more ornery and difficult to ride.

Take for instance the gold and silver plays we’ve visited in the last week. You wouldn’t know you were in the midst of a nine-year secular bull with the wall of worry we’ve been climbing since our original early month break over $1,000 in POG.

And yet, despite the pullback under $1,000, there’s no question we are still in a strong bull in the precious metals, and the dollar is still in a death spiral, despite it’s launch today. Still, I lightened on some leverage today, as a result of [[SLV]] dropping below it’s long term 61.8% fib at $16.04. Specifically, I got rid of the 40 $9 strike December Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls I’d bought a few days earlier. I’m not sure silver will stay under $16 here, but prudence forced my hand on this one.

For that, I’ll never forgive Prudence.

Still loaded to the gills on the precious plays, and gold looks like it’s remaining close to the $1,000 mark even as the price of silver plunges down near $16, a significant level, I believe, as that makes gold over 62x the price of silver. That can’t last in this market.

I am going to continue to sit on my hands as I’ve been doing, and work the margins for the most part. If you feel you must trade, I’d focus on the more volatile plays, like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] which will likely experience a pretty frightening bounce here in the next two or so days.

For Prudence and her crew, I like [[GDX]] , which may drop all the way to $42.50 here first. I also will look to accumulate Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] — my superstar– if it gets any cheaper. This is a great place to start on RGLD as well, if you have not yet had the chance. [[CDE]] will also bounce hard, when it finally decides to do so.

Patience.

That’s all for now… more tomorrow in the comments section.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qtgm5g5Gyo 450 300]

Fly Takes on the Mustachio’d Bearshitters via Liberal Use of The PPT Hammer

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Here’s the full vid, if you’re interested.   I tried to isolate the part where Bugs sells the King’s garden property to the Sheriff of Nottingham (pictured above), but couldn’t find that select clip. 

 I thought the Sherriff’s self-head hammering in that scene (about 4:00 or so in the full ‘toon) a particularly apt metaphor for the ursine intransigients, but I guess the scepter-malleting depicted above will have to serve as an able “second best.”  

He is making the Sheriff a “KNIGHT” after all, right?

Too unsubtle?  Pity. 

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More of the same wanton winning today, even as my activities in The PPT were relegated mostly to assembling one single ginormous call position in [[GDX]] .  

 I sought “deep-in-the-money” leverage here, purchasing the December 39’s and 40’s at $8.60 and $7.90 respectively.   I had to buy both at the ask, which I don’t like to do, usually.  However, I was unsuccessful with limit orders at lower prices, and did not want to wait another day, as I think GDX could launch again at any time.

I expect to hold these calls til near Turkey-Day, for what it’s worth.   I may shave some exposure if we have a large run-up earlier than I expect.

In other news, the “Killer Bee’s”  [[BAA]] and Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] continued to mint coin for myself and my compatriots in the bullion vaults of The PPT.      That’s just one letter of the alphabet in double digits…  I’ve another 25 in here ready to roll.

It’s been that kind of day in The PPT Wintocracy.  

 I continue to like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , [[CDE]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] for accumulation purposes here.

Tomorrow, I look at an interesting metal play starting with “A” — I think you’ll be intrigued.  

Until then, Slange (sic), and out.

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Did you take some action today? Were you nimble? Were you quick?

I’ll have you know today I, “Jack,” jumped many a candlestick, whilst running away from ex-Nazi dentists with maddeningly persistent, OSHA-oriented questions.

Did you?

I’m not going to mess around posting a bunch of charts, mostly as so many of them look the same with their one day reversal candles… but I’m going to say it here and leave it up to challenge. Today was a gift from the PM stock gods.

You see, today was the day “they” — the Operators — were going to shake the tree on all the trepeditious weak hands in the PM sector.  They were going to drive gold below $1,000 and then knock you over the head with a sockful of nickles to see how many positions you’d drop onto the ground for them to Hoover up.

And they were successful — to a point.  They were able to force gold below the $1k surface for a little more than two hours of trading this morning (NYSE hours) before, like a dirty beach ball in the Coney Island medical wash, it broke out above the waves again and headed higher. As I type (11:15 pm), POG is almost $1008 again, and POS is approaching $17. I’m betting we see more recovery tomorrow.

The same thing that happened to physical gold and silver happened across the precious metal mining sector. Very rare was the singular breakout like our previously recommended Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] , “the Latina Beauty.”

No, most of our names offered instead outstanding opportunities to buy at deep discounts today.  Just pull the chart on any Jacksonian or other oft-mentioned PM name and note the reversal dojis as they roared to recovery, some all the way to the green.

And yes I took advantage, though I announced only to The PPT today, as I mentioned I would. And no, I don’t mean to torture you like Sir Laurence Olivier with a rusty dental drill, but… well…

You see, I think we are in trading this Fall in very opportune times, and I want to make sure the people kind enough to keep this worthy site going “in custom” as it were, are rewarded with first dibs on choice observations.

So please don’t think me unkind, but rather, think of me as merely giving you yet another incentive– by way of whirring dental drill– to at least take a peek at The PPT…  for your own “toothsome good,” as it were.

Here’s an (edited) log of my announcements on The PPT‘s famed User Notes today:

10:30 & 11:15 am— Bot 15k shares [[CVM]] @ 1.90 (blended)

11:03 am— Bot 40 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] December $9 strike calls @3.60, (SLW @ $12.12)

11:45 am — Bot 1k more [[PAAS]] @ $22.84

11:51 am — announced “POG back over $1,000 oz. again, if you blinked you missed it.”

12:02 pm — announced a potential new flag break formation on Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] .

1:07 pm — Bot another 2k of BZH @ $5.75 (limit order placed at 12:10 filled)

1:22 pm — Took advantage of the huge discount in IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and added another 2k @ $13.66 right as it bounced off the upward sloping trendline.

1:36 pm — pointed out the (then 12%) breakout in Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] .

In addition, after the above purchases, I also gave a “preview” on three potential plays that I think are setting up, maybe as soon as tomorrow. And remember, this is the kind of thing that is happening every day on The PPT, and not just with my picks, but with trades, observations and analyses of every serious trader involved on these pages and elsewhere.

As a result, we’ve become near-Homeric in our collective winship. Grab an oar if you like, we’re off to Troy again tomorrow.

Slange (sic).

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Makeup bonus:  Just to prove I’m not an over-secretive ogre, I’ll divulge a non-PM tasty I’ve been eyeing.  Take a look at ANADIGICS, Inc. [[ANAD]] on a pullback to $4.75-.80 here.  I think it’s going places. Best to you.

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First, let’s get something straight: There’s nothing wrong with being bearish when the time is appropriate, and there’s no saying now’s not the time to be appropriately bearish.

But it’s never appropriate to be a perma-bear, a.k.a. “BearTard,” which is really more about personal philosophy than it is an investment thesis.   You see,  for beartards, making money is secondary, and maybe even tertiary.

You see, for Beartards, it’s about being smarter than everyone else.   It’s about the prickly, wounded pride.  It’s about revelling in your misanthropy.  It’s all about “the club.”

Let me tell you, you let yourself get like this, and you become like a piece of bloody chum to the sharks of the Street.    The edge traders will see you coming with your pocket protectors and your high waisted pants from two blocks away.   They love you guys like the West Harlem street corner three card monte grifters love the dewlapped big-talking college freshman who appear every Fall at Columbia University.

“Exhibit A” and “Exhibit B” are the two biggest beartard sites– you know who they are–  who have been accumulating lemmings almost as fast as they’ve been driving them off the white cliffs of Dover.   Think about how much money these sites have cost people on a cumulative basis since March.   And we’re talking thousands of people.   It’s near-Madoffian  in its scope. 

And yeah, I know misery loves company, but someone who makes themselves intentionally miserable by railing against the trend, well… this is when “thesis” turns to “pathology.”   And this is not time to be investing for companionship and even comraderie — there are bookclubs for that.

No, The PPT offers you an alternative — even if you are a recovering Teethgnasher from one of the Lemming Sites.   You see, The PPT is made up of a group of hard core traders interested not in showing you how smart they are, or how many geometrical glissades they can pull out of a 60-day chart, but in only one thing — putting coin in the bank, kruggerand-style.  

So indulge yourself, in bear and bull trades as you see fit.   But do it in a environs that will constantly challenge you to re-assess and re-evaluate your every position.   I promise you– will never feel fully comfortable within the confines of The PPT.  

But let me tell you this as well — that discomfort will serve your portfolio– and your family’s fortune — in a far better stead than those alternative “ego sites.”

Slange. 

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Jacksonian Addendum: Watch for pullbacks this week, especially in the gold and silver arenas.   I will be announcing my moves early — on The PPT, of course — and then here.   We are getting to a crucial period in the cycle, and I want you all to be at your most nimble.

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I just grabbed back all the [[EXK]] I sold yesterday for over $3.21 at between $2.88 and 2.90.  Let me tell you why:

Because it’s mid-September and it’s time to get your goat on.  

Listen, the next couple of months could be as dangerous as skipping around on the lower shelf of the Appenines right outside Roma.  So barring the requisition of a  bunch of high dollar mountain climbing equipment including Maui Jim Sunglasses and flashy ankle boots, you are going to have to harness your inner goat, ovah heah.

You see, EXK jacked almost 100% in three weeks.   As an owner, Mr. Goat, you just climbed Mt. Everest, congratulations.   Here’s the problem — you’re still on Mt. Everest.   What’s more, there are some nasty rockslides ocurring around you.

So be nimble, like a sure-footed billy goat, and be sensible, like Monsieur Le Fly.   Take some profits off the table on these 100% movers.   Sell some calls when things get extended.   Don’t be a pig.

Be a goat.

Last, if you haven’t yet signed up with The PPT, you may just be crazy.   Many many sure footed goats live there (and no trolls, imagine that?) that can help you skirt from Alp to Alp, twirling around like Julie Andrews in a mountaintop meadow, whilst wearing Lederhosen and blowing the Ricola horn.

 

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