TIMMAHHHHHHH!!!

Helpless Feeb Trading, FTW! (Or Not)
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I don’t usually go for the whole gloating thing, as it’s unkind, and generally karmically challenging.

I’ll make an exception this one time, however.  Call it karmic recognition if you will.   Much to the cognitively challenged’s chagrin, [[SLV]] is triumphant once again, after many weeks of representing second place to Canadians and other luge and curling aficionados.

The dollar index, [[DXY]] , is back below $80.00, currently trading at $79.86. It’s proxy [[UUP]] is below a significant (61.8%) intermediate term Fibonacci line ($23.52), and looks to be heading towards $23.13, it’s next support.

Many of my compatriots are short or heavily in cash. Small traders have one of the lowest call positions recorded since last March’s lows. People cannot believe this market can go up. In short– It’s a basket weaver’s market, and I’ve just finished a fine set of cane-rush patio chairs.

I’d like [[AGQ]] to stay above $55.02, and [[EXK]] to stay above $3.36 first, and then $3.61 second.   Near term target is $3.76, but I’m holding for the long term.  [[SVM]] is approaching a very important 61.8% fib line at $6.99, and if it should break it (I don’t think it will on first try, frankly) then it should run right to it’s recent highs at $8.00.    Last, [[PAAS]] is good to go over $22.35, and it’s next stop should be in the $26.50 recent high area.

My favourite, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is labouring (sic) on low volume here, and needs to get above $15.95 in order to “release” to the recent highs of $17.80.   It bears watching, while bears are watching.

Here’s what’s giving me hope for a bullish continuation even amidst the ursinity of my peers… The Russell (I use RUT or [[IWM]] to track it) is breaking out ahead of the [[SPY]] .     If the [[DJT]] and it’s representative United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] can continue north and break above recent highs, then I will have further comfort.

Until then, please be sure to purchase plenty of technical trading books.  Those authors need to eat, too, you know.

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We all have a lot of fun on this site with our ongoing theme of pushing wrinkly dissembling bearshitters down open manhole covers, steel fire escapes and empty elevator shafts,, but time in South Florida can really change one’s perspective.

Brothers and sisters, there are fewer more important imperatives for the ongoing health of our civilization than a reverance for our elderly citizens. Think of it — our aged are our only living link with history. Each is a conduit to the past alive and inextinguishable. Those of you lucky enough to still have all four grandparents still with you and sentient (I have none alive) have a veritable treasure trove of personal and historical information unique to your own ancestral past.

Even those of you with living parents (I’m one for two, unfortunately) can still reach back to a period before your birth where those before you confronted the same irascible problems and uncomfortable situations you struggle with every day.

Let’s not be hubristic. There is not brave new world, and the errors and intransigencies of this life have been painted and repainted on the walls of caves and castles many time before this. Why not take the opportunity, while it’s available to us, to plumb the depths of history, even as it stands before us, weathered, mellowed and perhaps past the cheap cynicism that mars the not-yet old.

Reach out — today if you can– and have an elderly friend or relative over for lunch or dinner. Ask them about their youth, and what times were like for them and their family. You will be well compensated for your time and interest, I promise you.
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What do you know? [[SLV]] is kicking Dungeons & Dragons Geek arse in a plummeting-down-the-elevator-shaft fashion. Who’d a thunk it?

Platinum has awoken as well. Dont’ forget about Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] , North American Palladium, Ltd. [[PAL]] and [[PTM]] . I share with you my good will, and my winning ways (ahem [[TBT]] ) as I head off into the mists of South Florida, to do “kids stuff & shit.”

Best to you all.
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We be coursin’ out o’ the far lip o’ the storm and here it tis at her strongest.    With the power o’ yon circlin’ vortex, it will try to drag ye to yer briny doom deep in the cold confines o’ Davey Jones’ Locker.   Take heed, lads!

Make an eye on yon dollar representative [[UUP]] — note how he’s strooglin’ and dancin’ like a half-mad murth’rous boocaneer at the end o’ a strip of fine English gallows hemp?    He’s tryin’ tah break ye lads, and his murth’rous brither, $DXY has shot all it’s grape over $81.00 as oirly as this morn!     They’re after ye traisure lads, as shore as I was born a palsied pain and boirnin’ boyle to the British Empire’s arse!

Aim yer guns down, lads, right below the waterline of yon King’s Federal Admiralty First Rater, the H.M.S. BernYankme, for her three decks are festooned with dollar cannon, ready to sink ye with all hands aboard, and yor sparkly traisure o’ silver and gold as well!   

But beware the storm that assists yon bewigged and brass-buttoned scurvy Federal Redcoats, blowin’ out of the South Mediterannean, and the Aegean Sea.   Tis driving the dollar to new highs against the warped and besotted Euro.   Fill the lifeboats with [[DRR]] and other provisions such as meat pasties and cane sugar.   Despite the dollar tide being up near a full 100 basis points, [[GLD]] and even [[SLV]] are riding the storm well, which gives me good cheer, even as my cutlass runs red down it’s fuller, and my beard sizzles with ball and gunpowder.

[[SVM]] and [[PAAS]] which were laggards last week, seem to be holding out the best in the silver circus.   [[EXK]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[CDE]] are next in line, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] taking the worst of the tsunami wave for the rest of her crew.   

The cautious among ye will await the drop o’ DXY below the $81.00 sea line.   At that point, I think even the Treasury Bane [[TBT]] will be boardable without fear of it becoming a Jonah.   Me three favourite golds, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] seem to be holding up in that order as well.

Hold hard mates, I see a calm horizon when this sqall be done.

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While nothing is yet set in stone, two big precious metal “tells” are indicating that, POG and POS, aside, we may have braved the gauntlet of the recent harsh pullback in the sector, and could be looking at a resumption of the secular bull.

I know this is slightly contorversial, as I am gainsaying a friend and mentor, Mr. Gary Savage of the SmartMoneyTrader, whom I respect and esteem at levels equal only to our own beloved Monseiur Le Docteur Le Fly and the crew down at The PPT.  Gary believes we are going to test at least the $1044 level on the POG, and quite possibly have nother retest of the $350-375 levels on the $HUI.

While I often find myself in agreement with his fine logic, I am not so sure he has his cycles right this time.  My current charts look to be showing something more promising:

 {Jake Closes Deal in Interrum — “And There Was Much Rejoicing!}

You probably also remember this [[GDX]] chart from the last time I posted it.  Well, we’ve tested the 61.8% retrace again this week, and held serve.  About 15 more cents, and we’ll be back above the 34-week moving average.    Whatever the case, I think this bodes well for the larger miners going forward:

Last but not least, our old friend the dollar.  The weekly view, seen from our proxy [[UUP]] seems to indicate a red doji on intermediate volume and (mostly) declining stochastics:

  Note also, price level has reached the top of the “consolidation zone.”   The week ahead will tell us if the dollar is just resting, or getting ready to lock back into it’s secular bear cave. 

Best to you all, my scurvy swabbies.

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How you like DEM appers, Hans Brix??

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While the [[SPY]] and it’s brothers [[IWM]] and [[DIA]] continue to melt down this morning in a “Wiener Health Care Epiphany” paroxysm of joy, something odd is going on with my usually dour miners.

They are not doing the D-Wave downshuffle along with the greater market.   Usually [[HUI]] and its components, Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (USA) [[AEM]] , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] , Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) [[KGC]] and Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] (among others) are getting bashed with the best of them in a dollar up ( [[UUP]]  is one metric) and market down environment.

Could it be that precious markets (and maybe the commodity markets in general) are sniffing out the gut-busting dollar explosion that will result in the fatal pillar of the Welfare State being added to our toxic soup should Obamacare gain some ground in today’s six hour tribute to Castro-style grand-standing?

I dunno, all I know is my babies — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , [[PAAS]] [[EXK]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] are showing some resiliancy here.   Could be that the Hueys are just oversold and resting up for a new sell off, but this action is not compelling me to give up my sammitch-eating marathon as instituted.  

Sure, [[DRR]] is probably a good bet here, as the Euro is a piece of dangling gypsy tchockes (sic) hanging off a sick old Romanian lady’s pleather purse right next to her Molotav-brand cigarette lighter.   But if you think a billion plus in new entitlement spending — let’s call it WienerCare if it passes — is going to strengthen the dollar in this new decade, I have some Jimmy Carter brand dental floss ready for delivery to you upon your immediate call.   Just pay shipping and handling.

Favourite (sic) pick o’ the day — Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .

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                           Nom Nom Nom
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Here’s why I’m eating sammitches.  Watch that dollar, it’s still overbought… and I can’t tell if the Trannies, and especially United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] (their leader, as I’ve mentioned), is leading the SPX, or vice versa.

FWIW, it’s supposed to work — according to Dow Theory — with the Trannies leading.   Let’s see what we can see on a weekly basis.   First SPX, looking very indecisive:

Now, have a look at United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] , which has shown great relative strength these last few weeks…

And last, most curious of all… the Dow Jones $TRAN Index  itself … curiously, already above its 200 week -EMA.   To stay?  I know not… hence, my sammitch eating:

I hope to have more tomorrow for you… including a closer look at the dollar, which remains ridiculously overbought.   I am staying with everything as of this evening, however, including [[TBT]] and all my $HUI friends.  

Best to you all.

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