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You probably think I’m being metaphorical and yet you’d only be partly right. Actually, I am drinking from the NCAA Golden Cup this very evening. You see, for the first time since I’ve been participating in the Big College Hoops Tournament pools, I’ve won my whole pool prior to the first Final Four game being played. Ridiculous, but true.
How, you ask? Well, it’s largely a consequence of this utterly fuktarded (excuse my bastardized French) 2011 Tournament, where not only did none of the #1 Seeds not make it to the Final Four, but none of the #2 Seeds did either! Sacre Bleu, if I weren’t crazy enough of a homer to recognize the latent maturation of the Kentucky Wildcats’ mostly-freshman team, I’d have had picked zero Final Four teams. As it is, I picked one, and that proved enough for me to win a large amount of money.
Sometimes life is not fair for the other guy, and I recognize that with humility. I will therefore buy the drinks for whomever is going to pitch a “Go Cats!” party this weekend, using my dirty winnings as salutory payment.
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On to the Golden Cup itself… Zombie asked for a “gold and silver update,” and while I scoff at such short term imprecations, I will humor him in appreciation of his long time one-liner hilarities on our collective blogs here. My analysis will be based on the chart of the stodgy gold ETF, GLD, which I’ve owned for years but speak little about. It’s part of my “core,” and therefore almost forgotten in any analysis of my day to day trading interests, as I’ve not interest in selling any for some time now.
That said, GLD’s chart can provide some insight onto the future movements in the precious metal environs, and particularly, the miners. Note, that despite the great success of the miners recently, GLD has had some trouble breaking free of the $139-140 levels as illustrated below?
Note that since November, the price of GLD has flirted with that Maginot Line of $139, and only recently– in early March– has it breached the promised land of $140 and higher? We know our friend Mr. CANSLIM, William O’Neil, will quickly tell you that a higher right side of the “cup” in a “cup and handle” formation, is exactly what we should be looking for to best take advantage of an accelerating price situation.
Well, it seems that’s what we are looking at above, and what’s more, it seems the “handle” Mr. O’Neil is so fond of has also appeared over this last month. Right now, the dollar is struggling to maintain it’s seemingly false Friday gains, and gold and silver seem to be shrugging off any attempts to sell them down.
That tells me, along with the chart above, that we haven’t long before we get a firm break of the $140 level. I believe that will “bring down the house” so to speak, in terms of actively traded gold stocks. While I continue to like silver, I think this week will belong to the gold flavor, like the rapper with the gold teeth and the big clock.
Oh right, that’s all of them.
Carry on, won’t you? I like NGD, AAU, IAG, IVN and of course ANV, here.
My best to you all.
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checkout Three Peaks and the Domed House
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/tp.html
even though this latest rally to the highs doesnt match it has caused me to sell some of my laggards.
especially with the SPX looking toppy and the USD bouncing.
I will be back in if I see some strength in $HUI
Interesting speculation, but would you say we are at “7,” or at “15?”
We certainly are not at “23…”
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I was thinking “23” but now that you mention it “17” looks more appropriate
Yeah, everything from 15 up to about 20 looks like a possible, but we certainly haven’t broken the consolidation enough to warrant the “domed house” yet.
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I love gooollllddd
You and the fly teach me shit I wish my dad did.
I’m sure your Dad taught you plenty of good stuff. My Dad didn’t know anything about investing either.
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Indeud. He was not one for ‘teachable moments’, so at 30 I’m still trying to figure out what some of the lessons are
Close to 15% in PM now
GDX, ANV, GDXJ, SLW, RGLD, EXK, & AAU (in $ order).
Am I too heavily weighted towards gold now? I added GDX & GDXJ as gold was lagging silver, and can reposition towards silver when that switches.
Is the yield on GDXJ really 7%?
gdx and gdxj own both gold and silver miners
agreed. The overall weighting is towards gold and thus my positions are more heavily weighted to a golden hue.
Looks like year end dividend only. 2010 must have been special year.
Yes, that’s defininitely unusual. May have been a year end special divvy from one company or something. Most of these guys plow $$ back into new production or assets.
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Hindsight will show you the lessons, I’m sure. Creeps up on you. You’ll be walking down the street and …. smack!
Is he still alive?
Moober, good to see you around here.
Yup he is still alive. In the best shape of any 65 yr old I know. I’m sure there would have been more teachings, however parents split up in HS and relationship changed with both of them away from parental/kid to more like friends you haven’t seen in a while with all the awkwardness.
As Mrs. Duck and I are starting to think about our own ducklings, I think more and more about the lessons that I want to pass along or how I’d like to do things differently.
Thanks, good to be seen. I’m always lurking, rarely posting.
Might be a good opportunity to give him a call. My dad and I were very distant through college. After I started working, got married, etc we warmed up. Once I got interested in money and investing we’d talk all the time. He passed away seven years ago. I encourage you to rekindle your relationship as an adult. Things change, you know?
Hells, sounds like he taught you about fitness. That’s one lesson! You could start there. “Hey dad, thanks for being a good example about staying fit. I was just talking about how you are the fittest geezer I know.”
Sorry if this is preachy. Don’t mean to be if it sounds that way. I just miss my pops sometimes.
no1 even noes wat that shyt means wen u r talking liek that
gawd
I get the jape, fwiw.
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Yes indeud! We are so close to a breakout here. However, from and O’neil perspective, we may need a little more handle.
Jake is Dr. Goldfinger.
Thank you, Good Sir. Congrats on the Cats and the winnings, Sir. Well deserved.
Not this time. Gold looks to be breaking down, headed to test $1,400 today, and then even lower the rest of the week. Your precious gold miners are going to feel some deep pain this week.
Oh bother, I don’t know how I shall ever cope!
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I love these types of prognostications because it gives me confidence to buy
Couldn’t you hear the hope in his voice?
Poor thing, it’s been a rough ten years for argent bears.
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Mi amiguito , yo espere hasta hoy para EXK @ 8.85 y lo compre. Tambien GLD calls 134 June 18
Dayum, nice pick-up.
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Gracias, por me has ensenado bien. 😉
Game of Thrones premiers on HBO on APril 17th.
You excited?
Very! Though its harder to turn a great book into a great film than a mediocre book (since it can never truly compete with one’s imagination).
Funny, but George RR Martin’s stuff came along quite a bit after I had gone through my pre-teen Tolkien/Lewis phase (which morphed into a Stephen R. Donaldson phase*), so I’ve never read any of his stuff.
I did note the HBO previews, however, and it seems the show is starring the guy who played both Boromir in LOTR and Richard Sharp of the Bernard Cornwell Series.
That’s not a bad start….
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*(Stephen R. Donaldson’s writing, by the way, does NOT withstand the test of time. He’s almost as bad as Ayn Rand when read in adulthood. This is why I’ve eschewed a lot of “fantasy novels” as an adult. I can’t abide bad writing anymore.)
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I read Donaldson books to my toddler aged boys as they fall asleep. The stories aren’t great, the plots are not exciting, and the characters are unbelievable and hard to find common ground with.
Despite that, Donaldson’s vocabulary and rythm are nearly unmatched. Your well-demonstrated powers of highly effective soliloquy on this site lead me to believe that Donaldson’s scratchings may have helped you to develop the mastery of language that you still carry. I’ll consider your literary background an affirmation of my nightly ritual.
I have only one pick still standing also, UConn – but feel pretty good that Kemba will take us to the finish. I should have given more credit to Butler given their past appearance, but their record kept me away…VCU, who would have thunk…and I don’t like Calipari – he’s dirty – that’s why he hangs out in Memphis and Kentucky – no one checking things that closely in the old boys network…more scandals to come there.
Ya ain’t pinned nothing on me YET, copper!
And speaking of Dirty, what do you call you SUSPENDED cancer survivor, Calhoun??
Kemba is the man, though. Unfortch, KY has like…. five or six Kembas.
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Jake Gint: Do I correctly assume that you don’t buy into the SLV GLD paper scam that is outlined in numerous youtube videos?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
One of the things Harvey keeps track of daily is the alleged “paper etf’s” vs. the premium on “physical etf’s”.
Here’s a recent excerpt:
“Let us head to our ETF’s and see how they behaved today.
First, let’s see what happened to our “non-physical” inventories.
First the GLD: March 26.2011:
Total Gold in Trust
Tonnes: 1,213.96
Ounces:39,029,986.80
Value US$:
56,030,113,163.91
Total Gold in Trust: March 24:
Tonnes: 1,213.96
Ounces:39,029,986.80
Value US$:
56,460,057,054.12
we lost zero oz of gold in our non physical etf
How about SLV? March 26.2011:
Ounces of Silver in Trust 358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust 11,139.52
march 24.2011:
Ounces of Silver in Trust 358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust 11,139.52
we neither gained or lost any silver “inventory”
And now for our physical ETF’s:
The Sprott silver fund: PSLV:
the premium to NAV fell to a premium of 19.11% . The premiums on pure silver funds are very high and yet they have not found any silver to take advantage of their high share price.
The Sprott gold fund PHYS:
the premium to NAV rose a bit to 4.52%.
The Central Fund of Canada which is equal parts gold and silver:
saw its premium to NAV fall a bit to 8.5% in both USA funds and 8.5% in CDN.funds.
end.”
A 19% premium for the sprott phyiscal etf plus the prices silver is going for on ebay per ounce (significant premium), plus the way JPMorgan was able to hurdle all of the requirements for becoming a fully licensed comex vault in 2 days makes it difficult for me to dismiss the alleged unbacked paper issue out of hand (GLD and SLV to be specific).
I am reserving judgement, but to quote Willy Shakes:
The truth will OUT!
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Sadly, I couldn’t find the short version of this article.
http://www.hindecapital.com/docs/hil_reports/Hinde%20Capital%20-%20Precious%20Metals%20ETF%20Alchemy%20Aug%2012%202010.pdf
I will own no GLD or SLV
The next date for the precious metals options expiry is Monday, March 28th, 2011; the reader is advised to be careful as the trading that day for precious metals and precious metals stocks will be volatile.
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jake,
Not sure i ever heard you mention SA? you don’t care for their model?aside, what about UGL?
T-minus three years and counting until Kentucky has to vacate this Final Four appearance. It’s a Calamari tradition, you know.
We were joking about that yesterday. Saying how Kentucky doesn’t hang “Final Four” banners in (Co)Rupp Arena, since they only hang national championship banners (7 and counting) there. Asked my Wildcat fan friend if they made them “tear away?”
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Ashley Judd?!?! She’s hot.
The dollar is at an interesting level. Old support turned resistance.
U.S. debt ceiling decision looming in2 weeks and the dollar is being bought and precious metals being sold.
Lol?
With media reporting a “government shutdown” I might add