Leonard Marshall (#70) Disposes of Joe Montana
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It’s been a long while since I’ve talked about Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]] , but as I’ve stated, I think 2010 will be the year of the gas giants.
As you can see on this weekly chart, CHK is starting to break out into some free-air territory after a long way back from it’s CEO-stock liquidating days back in the Dark Times (ie, December of ’08, a bit more than a year ago).
In my “best of all world’s” scenario, I’d like to see CHK break through 30 with some volume, here, perhaps after a short pullback or consolidation. Barring that, I’d like to buy at a retest of $30 itself, which is the beginning of my free air scenario. As you can see, this thing has a lot of room to run, so I’m not going to feel badly about missing the first buck or two.
I also like ConocoPhillips [[COP]] , Apache Corporation [[APA]] and NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] here, under the same cautious parameters. [[UUP]] is holding fast here at that $22.90, so all theses continue to hold true.
Best to you all.
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An old article but pertinent info:
http://www.getreallist.com/natty-dread.html
The largest producers with the lowest cost from the 1st ten s/b worthy …
UPL – SWN – RRC – EOG – ECA – DVN
UPL (MC=$8B) in Wyoming and recently Marcellus (low cost producer)
RRC (MC=$8B) is the experienced leader in the Marcellus
SWN (MC=$17B) operations primarily are located in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Texas – largest player in the Fayetteville Shale play
EOG (MC=$25B) 7,339 billion cubic feet (Bcf) were natural gas reserves and 225 million barrels (MMBbl) were crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids reserves – 71% of EOGβs reserves (on a natural gas equivalent basis) were located in the United States, 15% in Canada and 14% in Trinidad.
ECA (MC=$26B) recently split to become a pure natty play (To grow or to sell out ?) with Haynesville acreage
XTO (MC=$27B) was taken out 1st for obvious reasons – low cost producer with size & diversity
DVN (MC=$34B) the most like XTO & CHK though larger than XTO so a big pill to swallow (BP?)
Recap:
EOG, ECA & DVN require buyers the size of an XOM or BP/RDS/CVX though either of those could be acquirers of UPL or RRC
SWN with it’s dependable access to pipelines and processing as well as shale exposure makes for a nice addition to any integrated looking for pure north american exposure.
Best bets by size: RRC – SWN – ECA
CHK (MC=$19B)
Good stuff. I was looking at SWN the other day. I had not considered the M&A angle, but it makes sense this year.
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Newish article but impertinent:
This review of Niall Ferguson’s “Ascent of Money” is well worth the read. Mr. Landis nailed it.
Excerpt:
“Rule One: Unless absolutely necessary, ignore the existence of countervailing fact or theory; just make a breezy assertion, then let your prestige and the credulity of your audience do the rest. This is especially important in situations in which objective external circumstances have revealed your position to be untenable, and the only accurate predictions and prescriptions are to be found in the opposing camp. Rule Two: If you feel you must provide some sort of argument in support of said assertion, use inapposite anecdote, false analogy and slippery pseudo-reasoning.”
Though used in a different context (which is why “Rule 3” doesn’t apply), this quote reminded me of Jake’s response to anyone questioning the actions of his favourite former Prez. Or indeud it seemed to recall Jake’s rebuttals to any comments on his and Ronny Reagan’s seeming inability to differentiate between “socialism” and “Stalinism”.
Stop projecting, Sally. I will continue to refute you illogical ramblings with clear facts and concise reasoning. This rhetoric will not spare you, however from having your arguments described as “inane,” “incoherent,” and most especially “Marxist,” when they so frequently are.
Shape up or ship out, but please, this is a “no whining” zone.
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Take it easy Jake, chant a Zen Koan or two.
Your last comment indicates you still haven’t figured out that “I know you are, but what am I?” isn’t much of an argument. Thanks for the case in point.
No whining, please.
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“A Gas Giant From Way Back”
Good title for your autobiography.
Geez, that one took you 7.5 hours from publication?
Serious meth-bender last night or something?
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Hope you kept your MON hedges …yesterday’s fert upgrades just before MOS and MON earnings struck me as distributionist …paranoically speaking.
Yeah, still have all my hedges on. Only change was a roll forward on the SPY puts.
The lenghth of this cycle is beginning to annoy me. I believe this is day 43… (note: Danny’s most recent breadth chart shows it well, graphically speaking.)
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“A hit! A palpable hit!”
First Dorgan and now…. More bad news for the Purdy Team:
Sen. Dodd (D- CT) Self-Angelos.
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Build your straw men if you wish, but don’t use my good name. I am looking forward to divided government and I am no fan of Sen. Dodd.
What’s the use of building a straw man if I don’t use your “good” (sic) name?
Not a fan? Dodd too conservative for you? π
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well well, the whole MON issue lasted about 3 minutes…..back in the green….
Crazy today (MON).
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Artist, you prob gettin’ tired of this, but Damn! that is the best gravatar goin’. I’m usually not this easily amused….
Geez., Purdy… where did they find this Martha Coakley aparatchik?
20 day to the election and she went on vacation?
Must be awesome living in a one party state with that much embedded institutional hubris…
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Yes, we run a very efficient operation …the Dem primary also serves as the general election.
That is treu of our mayoral race here… which is why we are forced to back the most conservative Dem we can find.
Like choosing the least poisonous adder with which to be bitten.
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Looks like gold and silver are done pulling back here, at least. $HUI, $XAU and $GDX all blasting off again.
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My SLW from Monday is behaving well. The question is, will the bull-flag on the dollar index hold? Or will it turn into a full-blown 50% retracement. UUP currently sitting on the 20-day MA at 22.90. I’m going to be watching it closely.
That’s what I have my eye on as well. Still have a tonne of SLW from previous, but have not bought back yet.
Like what I said about CHK, but even more so — SLW has got a lot of road ahead of it, so I’m not worried about waiting a bit to add here.
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I probably should lighten around here, because I have too much of it. Also the double-top in crude looks interesting. If I had giant balls, I would short the hell out of it. If the market and the $ turns here. Crude will be below $70 by the end of next week.
My major problem is that everything looks overbot like a mothah-flickah, even as it’s been breaking out (BOOM is a good example, if you pull it up).
I am likely biased, but I see SLW coming back to $15.75 at least… so it probably wouldn’t hurt to take a little off here.
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I’m thinking UUP will bounce to the 200-day MA at 23.4ish. I so want to short oil it hurts.
You wouldn’t want to short oil if you had a pre-existing position. Say, one from the end of November, that’s down 5%…
I’m worried that the forces that be, “They” will intervene and force oil much higher to keep it from making any sizable retracement. That would cause NOV to uncoil directly into my left eye.
$22.81 would fill that gap up from December 17th once and for all. Two cents away.
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The bull flag on the dollar will be a pretty thin case unless it breaks up this wee. The rally lasted for 15 (trading) days, the flag is already 9 days old. Any longer, and it’s just a retracement of some type.
Agreud. If the dollar turns over again this early, however, that means inflation man is at our door.
Note TBT today.
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Natural Gas has been on my watch list for a while. I got burned messing with it in 09, so it’s hard to get too excited. D(UNG) will never be spoken of again in my house hold. Another few I’ve been watching closely are XTXI and CMZ–in the lottery ballbark on the later, the former used to be a 35 dollar stock
Straight Outta Compton Petroleum? Is that the one owned by Snoop Dawgie Dawg and Dr. Dre?
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Andrew Breitbart has another great news site up: http://bigjournalism.com/
in addition to biggovernement.com and bighollywood.com (no relation to woodshedder)
the 5th mirrors the 4th, and the 6th mirrors the 5th, ‘Free Market’ indeed.
Hate to say it but this is a great post
Hey America… you voted these weasels in, and now it’s BOHICA Time!
Enjoy!
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see if this works (you can never read my screen casts), interesting chart I read today on why this bull is bull.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/b967f8aa-7ed0-43f0-b349-f3ab812a9480
Last couple of items really tell the tale. What was the 80% thing on government policy towards the end?
Is that approval??
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