Oh I had a great picture for today. You shoulda seen it. Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters, carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.
Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers. You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant. So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.
On to today. First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick: I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays. If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well. Short version: natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.
So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate. The door is still open for your suggestions.
Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!). I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd., which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!) 61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%). I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.
I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here. For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N” juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley. As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94. Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.
I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already. I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again. Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already. Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!
I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance. In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.
| Name | 15-Jun | 16-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.83 | $ 29.04 | 0.73% | Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle. | |
| EGO | 8.28 | 8.51 | 2.78% | Nice junior-joining movement at EOD. | |
| GDX | 37.97 | 38.37 | 1.05% | Nice inside day, showing a change of direction. | |
| GLD | 91.10 | 91.93 | 0.91% | POG back to $935, nice step. | |
| IAG | 9.25 | 9.54 | 3.14% | Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today. | |
| MON | 84.97 | 81.62 | -3.94% | Sued by rival, still on trend. | |
| NRP | 22.99 | 22.44 | -2.39% | 38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry | |
| PAAS | 20.95 | 20.74 | -1.00% | 20.70 support held, still flabby. | |
| RGLD | 41.81 | 42.90 | 2.61% | Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future? | |
| SLV | 13.83 | 13.99 | 1.16% | PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16) | |
| SLW | 9.25 | 8.92 | -3.57% | Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” | |
| SSRI | 19.92 | 19.62 | -1.51% | If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. | |
| TBT | 55.49 | 53.59 | -3.42% | Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53 | |
| TC | 11.05 | 10.68 | -3.35% | Support bounce at $10.40. Still w “the market?” | |
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it. | |
| AVG (daily) | -0.45% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.28% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.47% | ||||
Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either, but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).
Wednesday Morning Update: Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02. Bouncing on lower channel and support.
Wednesday Morning Update: Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us. I may add a little here as well.
Wednesday Morning Update: RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12. Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%). This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know. Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: I may have found the new Jacksonian. I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52). I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today. Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!
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Jake you’ll like this one.
http://uk.video.yahoo.com/watch/5309607
“Eff him” “eff the Cowboys” LOFL!
Holy crap, that was painful.
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fwiw ..
http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-gold-has-topped-2009-6
testing my AGQ piggy bank play again Jake – got lucky and out of a lot of positions early this am, and loaded up a full position of AGQ at 44 and change today, along with TC and HL (bought and sold TC and NG last May after reading some of your writing and made 30% and 50% in only a few weeks however I closed them out and took my profits, thank you thank you thank you) – I may have missed a great shot to get back in here with NG – went for TC instead, we’ll see.
I’m working through my understanding of SLW and I sort of get it. Any idea what kind of contractual arrangements they have with the miners? Not trying to be too paranoid, I’m mainly interested if they can get iced out after X years – I’m hoping they have longer term options that don’t kill them if the price of silver goes way up, and don’t lock them in if it (somehow) falls further.
Thanks in advance for your outstanding blog work!
Bill – I still like TC, I’m just a little concerned it will stay “with the market” unlike the PM’s who are on their own separate journey.
I’ll get you some hard data on SLW tomorrow, but its my understanding that they have similar long term contractual arrangements to the royalty financiers. __
Bruce- those who cannot do…?
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The Great Roubini would blow a goat for a gubbermint grant.
SLW has long term contracts, mostly with Goldcorp (where it was spun out) that they have a right to silver production from those mines at a cost if i recall of around $4 per oz…thats why this name has great leverage to silver price…also the recent Silver Stone deal is pretty good, some nice properties
Understood on TC, my biotechs have “zagged” nicely (not so much today) but I’ll be keeping close watch on how it goes. The SLW thing is very interesting – seems almost too easy. My initial take is they are basically resellers and have cornered an industry somehow.
changed my handle since someone else posts as Bill – a bit more bloglike too. Relevant to my extreme hobbies of DC powered bicycles, boats, and commercial LED lighting.
RHILL thanks for the early report – that makes sense – great contractual rights would give them an enormous advantage as silver goes up. $4 is very cheap from what I’ve read so far.
I’m not positive, but I think the number is something like 3.50.
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Re: picture problems
Are you using Firefox?
I aks because when I try to edit/post something in the PG using Firefox, I too do not have the ability to insert pictures (that little row of icons does not even show up!).
However, I can do it no problemo using either Chrome or Safari (both built on Webkit).
SLW contracts – found it. I’m a putz, at least now I know what a silver “stream” is. From their own website, about 3.90 / oz with a “small” inflation adjustment.
Inflation adjustment…not tied to the price of the metal?!! Probably (hope) a small cap / year?
http://silverwheaton.com/main/?en&silver
SLW – Found the inflation caps in the quarterly statement, looks to be around 1 – 1.65% / year. One thing I’m wrestling with now is the value of their reserves, estimated at around 460 million oz – and their teensy 4.4 mil income on only 155 mil in sales – that doesn’t seem so hot. By the way, 22 employees, got to love that. Numero UNO there must be taking a big chunk off the top – they outsource everything.
we’re goin down lot of bad advice around jake apart finally shorting this rally . if 8500/8400 doesn’t show strenght we’re due for another season of bearishness , if it shows we’re in a no-one-land war which i wouldn’t want to stay in
JG
In case you ever lose your mind and think about moving back:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=230116&title=long-island-wants-to-secede
Doc Sparks (Bill?) — yes, SLW is definitely a “leverage play” along the lines of RGLD. One of the reasons I like them. While they are subject to the performance of their miners, they are not subject to their liabilities. Still very risky, of course, which is why I recommend starting with a base in the physical.
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Francesco — I think a lot of people are expecting more bearishness, but you don’t want to call the return too early.
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DMG — that is just pure hilarity. I’ll feature that when the servers get fixed.
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Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02
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FWIW — we just filled the Russell 2000 gap (RUT) from 5/29 (around 501’ish).
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Price of Gold (POG) and Silver (POS) are both up off the floor this morning and showing green at $934 and $14.24, respectively.
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Jacksonian favourite (sic) RGLD showing some mojo here, up 3.10% at $44.23. (hat tip to GLUD)
Again, this is a royalty play and very leveraged to the POG.
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Jake,
How about adding more TBT at this level??
AND do you think SWC could be a Jacksonian pick ?
T-dog! Read the notes, maaaaan. Where does it say to add TBT?
(sorry, but this is merely training)
Hint — someone from the PPT just bought a HUGE position in TBT.
(So yes, yes!)
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SWC cannot be a Jacksonian, but that does not mean it’s not a valid pick right here… it’s about 23.7% off the recent high at it’s low today, which is pretty much “first fib” territory and a good place to pick up a strong stock.
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New position taken in TCK… small (moth hands) to start… 1k @ 15.04.
(edit: sorry, turns out I actually bot 1.5k shs to start)
I love the combination and the fact that its in Canuckistan.
Rivalling BHP for the New Jacksonian right now.
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Just looked at SSRI’s ten year fib chart.
Low @ 1.01
High at 47.78
to get the retrace from high — subtract the low from the high, multiply the answer by 61.8% (28.90).
Now subtract that from the high.
Answer? 18.87*
Low of the day?
18.86
Cue the Rod Serling ditty.
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* rounded.
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Please make available some officially branded JCP muskets.
Long SLW, AUY, SSRI, PAAS, AUY, TC, TCK, TBT. What would you recommend to round this out? I’m trying to not carry too many positions.
Fook,
ANV, EGO, NG, IAG or GFI (you’re light on golds)
and ANDE remains a beast.
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Thx Jake.