And not just the Ozzie Rahpoe-tah (sic)! Take a look at Jake’s favorite refinary play, and one of my “top ten” holdings:
Note how it’s just today breaking out of that medium term triangle? It’s also continuing yesterday’s move above the intermediate-term 61.8% fibonacci retrace line (drawn from the 8/25/08 high to the 11/21/08 low) at $14.86, and has also show good support at the short term 38.2% fib (again, “strong”) retrace line (drawn on this chart from the 11/21/05 low to the 02/16/09 recent high).
I’d be more comfortable if the volume were a bit better than it is this morning, but there is some precedent on “low volume sneak ups” for this stock if you look back at December’s move on the above chart.
That December move-up also nicely illustrates how a stock can move quickly up once it breaks out of a congestion zone. As you can see, TSO will be leaving it’s current congestion zone at about $16.30 or so, which will coincide quite neatly with the 200-day EMA currently at $16.49.
The more cautious will want to wait until we break above that congestion, and the 200-day is my first “check off” where I will be selling covered calls at least. However, given the moderation in crack spreads and the supply-demand issues in the gasoline distribution channels entering the summer driving months, I think I am reasonable in targetting the recent highs of $19.00 as a result of any “congestion relief.” That could come very quickly, so keep an eye open. As well, I am targetting the 38.2% long term fib retrace (drawn from the 10/26/07 highs to recent November ’08 lows) level of $28.65 as my “major exit point” for this pick.
Disclosure: I am very long this stock, and warn you that any purchase of it may signal your local Congressman that you are “a-okay” with a new refinery project in your postage stamp backyard. Oh, and you may lose money.
___________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
remember m&a is making a comeback. also west coast crack spreads doing a lot better than rest of country. still all of them keep improving.
this one deserves a better looking spokeperson than ups.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tesoro-Priced-zacks-14985026.html?.v=1
“In parts of New Zealand, you can see the fossilized remains of ancient prehistoric forests in visible black bands on the seashore. This particular compressed material is coal and it burns extremely well as fuel. Oil, too, is a fossil. It is formed in pockets, under great pressure, from anmals and plants that lived three hundred million years ago. It is without a doubt the most useful substance we have ever found – everything plastic comes from oil, as well as gas for our planes and cars.”
– Dangerous Book for Boys desktop calendar
BZH on a pull back
WL on pull back
Keep an eye on BONT, GU, BEE, FRG (urainum play with urz, urre, ccj all up big) and SPF (homebuilder), Sons and lvlt (networker with all up huge)…this is a great website so i just want to contriubte a little..thanks
What has made TSO perform so much better than VLO over the last 6 months?
Or was it just a case of extreme homo-hammering on TSO and a little less on VLO?
Yes, TSO took it harder than VLO in the intitial down days… I think they’re the “farther to go” play.
Everyone was in VLO…
_______
Jake,
What is your take of FTO, location makes it immune to natural disasters, ie. hurricanes, earthquakes, ect.. but not to fuckery
DD —
I like the company, but I’d wait til it resolves this immediate triangle before partaking. I’d feel more comfy at 15.50 or above… the long term downtrend hits at around $17, so I’d be watching that too. If it gets over there, you should be home free.
__________
Full disclosure: Chivas is a TSO whooah.
But he does not like Amerasian girls, I guess.
Who was the guy who was in love w. Karen Tso? Something puppy?
____________________
Who’s NOT in love with Karen Tso? – the asian persuasion!
“Thunderpup Says:
Dog, we can all admit we have Fight Club fantasies. I mean what red-blooded male doesn’t want to ride around, with gun, trusty horse, and Karen Tso (possibly with Chloe Cho walking behind) naked on the back, pillaging the remnants of society and repopulating the Earth, as well as playing Darwin – old school style.
Yet, what I would write down about S&P150, would be that shorting to that level would be simply for sport, once you have the trappings necessary for post-society. Perhaps it would give one the necessary mental preparation for shooting the starving throngs attempting to get into your bunker, and still having the calm certitude to reload your magazines for the next assault.
For when the Devil himself takes God’s bank, JPM, down, it is truly the end of this world and money, electronic or paper is no good. Aside: Note that Devil could not get JPM below $20 a few days ago, and it is up egregious amounts since then.”
Thanks Doc… whatever happened to Thunder Pup?
I thought he’d be all over this ‘un.
_____
You know, if Boca would’ve won, we could be looking at some hot guys for a change.
I’m just saying.
Chanci —
Who says I’m not there for my subscribers?
_______
ROFLMAO!
It won’t be a guy’s club forever, Jake. Just know that.
Actually I have to say I am glad you won. You give guys a good name. Guys with brains rock! I spend most of my days trying to teach my 14 yo very beautiful daughter this. I hope she heeds. Of course, her dad has brains so she’ll find one like him, I’m sure.
Tell her to go to a good school and find a guy there.
This is the message I am telling my daughter (she’s 8):
You need to be at least engaged by 24… college is the best place to find a decent spouse, and where you can do the most due diligence on the subject.
Of course, I met my wife in college, and so did all but two of my 7 roommates.
No one’s divorced or separated, everyone has nice kids… it’s worked out well, going on 15 years now.
Too much to chance after college, and the odds are even worse for the wimmens.
_________
Really great post , luv your stuff!!
In the short history of this tab, I believe Jake has gotten more plaudits than all the other bloggers combined.
What a bunch of brownnosers! 😉
Dpeez — I have a lot of relatives.
_______
Peezy,
Jake has worked hard to score well on both the math and verbal parts of the exam and prove that he’s worthy of his tab.
He’s no Lenny Dykstra, of course, but he’s done pretty well.
Thanks again for the card and the money uncle Jake , I will see you Sunday .
You’re only TSO resource:
http://reportercaps.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=cnbc&action=display&thread=18606&page=1
Of course, I met my wife in college, and so did all but two of my 7 roommates.
Trying real hard to be good here and not misinterpret…
Even given the way too raunchy interpretation of “met,” that was a weak one, old man.
__
Tso I can’t pass this up…it just doesn’t get any better than this…dual congratulations on your tabbing and selection of topics. I could certainly say some something crude, but TSO is pure, unadulterated delight, with refined taste – never sour and heavy, but sweet and light. There is no hedging on that crack spread, as my derrick is expecting it to widen for some fluid catalytic cracking. A refined Tso will not only be in my backyard, but also naked on the back of my horse. Is it love or destiny? It is both.
Jake and Doc:
Have you read the Bill Moyers interview of William K Black? It is a damning account of Ratings Agenies, and Politicians i.e Summers, Rubens, Geithner and Paulson REFUSING to do their job. The former head of NY Treassury, Geithner is so bold as to say his job was not to regulate, when in fact that was his principal mandate.
Weface a moral dilemma: either Geithner is wrong that there is $2 trillion needed for bad loans OR he is wrong that the stress test proves there is adequate solvency and capitalization. Which is it Tim?
Two men with Courage?