Ugly Close… Here We Short Again

Well, don’t short first thing tomorrow.  I’m aiming for Friday for some quick and short term shorts.  Apparently, the selloff came on news of Israel and Lebanon screwing around with each other.  The market is giving us a kind reminder of just how sensitive it has become.  It’s a “stray-cat” market.  You know, that hungry cat that nervously sneaks up on some food, but immediately runs away at the sound of the wind blowing an empty can down the sidewalk.  Eventually the cat will have his meal.  But when he’s done, he’s gone.  Likewise, the market is hungry.  Buyers are getting desperate for a “deal.”  But they constantly get scared away at the most irrelevant points of news.  You’ll know the time to short- when the rebuying process has been fully complete.    In the grander scale of things, we are further than halfway in this process.  Ever since the Dow made a fierce rally since the spring of 09, we have witnessed one of the most amazing relief rallies ever.  I never forget what it was though.  A market, that was and still is, fueled by emotion, and less fundamental.  Just a small reminder for all the cats out there.

Stocks to watch:

– AAPL:  iPad sales hits over 2 million units.  I’m still waiting for mine in the mai ftwl! 

–  YGE:  A top short candidate on my list.  I’m looking for a double digit decline within 2 months.  Yay for us.

–  UA:   My research taught me that it is very difficult for a company to grow if they attach itself, or targets only one section of an industry.  UA has given itself the reputation of an NFL product.  Although, they do make good products in other active sportswear, the competition is limiting them in market growth and sales.  JAN 2011 Puts, ask $2.

–  PCLN:  I only ask myself, “Is the bounce over?”  PCLN is very dependent on the overall market… finally.  And its like by a magnitude of x2.  Dow names its price, PCLN doubles it.