“That Was a Bad Idea”
Although I am medium term bullish, long term bearish, a move like this week makes me short term bearish. A lot of false bullish signals showing up. Be careful not to mistake bullish moves in bad places as, well, bullish moves. I did enter a few shorts, as I noticed the Vix barely dropped on this move, as well as seeing some inverse ETFs showing relative strength (SRS, SKF… not FXP, EEV, I am bearish on FXP which should be de-listed for being so idiotic). My strategy here is to short on the rips and buy on the dips on any index that moves +4% over a multi-day period. It’s too early in the year for me to pick a side. I still think retail traders are moving this low volume tape, and the institutional investors are waiting to sell at higher prices.
Nevertheless, some things I noted today:
– Ugly stocks moving up
– Volume down on major indexes
– AAPL testing 91 resistance
– Nice move in solars today, but solars is not a leading sector. FSLR, JASO, SOL, SPWRA
3 of the 4 commodity horsemen were strong on price, but weak on volume.
– Nice jump in oil. Again, stocks up in the energy sector are up, but about 1/2 the trading volume. CLR looks good for a swing long. APWR is a trader stock.
– Gold was weakest. I am short EGO.
– Steel and other worthless scraps of metal were also up. X, MEA (up almost 30%! Mama MEA!)
– Ag/Fertz stocks up. MOS, POT, TNH, MON
… keep positions tight! It’s still a little to early to short aggressively, but I do think it’s a little late to enter new longs. But, whatever is working for you, stick to it with a few exit strategies.
Go check out Pearlman’s new blog. He’s a trader focused on trader psychology, so his field and skill intersect a little with my sentiment trading background. For those interested in a technical approach to the indexes, I think C-Addict’s latest post about the Indicators is a must read.
K, back to work!!!
-gio-
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Agree on gold, but coal and earl seem strong here. Caution!
Thanks for the post with timing and tickers discussion. Appreciate your tips on respected references too. Please keep posting to ride the tsumnami 😉 Jake thx for the earl insight, big gusher for Jed short-term. Have a great weekend
I haven’t laughed that hard all year.
Thanks for the post with timing and tickers discussion. Appreciate your tips on respected references too. Please keep posting to ride the tsunami 😉 Jake thx for the earl insight, big gusher for Jed short-term. Have a great weekend
Oh yeah.
Happy new year Gio.
Watch out for them volcanos man.
that happened to me when i was around 10 years old.
good thing it was a tube
Agreed on all points…Good advice…The buying was insane last week and everything is in the upper price channel or parabolic out of the channels right now. Take a look and stocks trading at P/Es less then 15 and vols >300000 and note the parabolic action on pure shit. I strangled my swing longs Friday about 2:00pm and can’t re-enter any decent holdings until there’s at least a 3% – 4% pullback.
Yep…It’s mostly retail, but there is a modest amount of institutional “timed” buying happening throughout the day. I’m expecting them to harvest/cash out real soon, and if the prices then drop in the channels I’ll re-enter…but not until.
Wave trade baby…Aloha..
So there’s this guy over at Tim knights trying to short MAT 16.65, all I can say is he’ll probably lose on that kind of trading. I might try shorting MAT at 17.11 = 200 day, but I’m setting a stop loss at 17.25–I think MAT can get to 18 or 19
too bad your not a member— I know exactly what the DIA is going to do next-
you remember when I used to post that info for free?
It’s posted in my member’s area now, and not any where near the free site–
Gio: Nice call on $CLR! I didn’t like the stochastics, so I didn’t play it – I hope you did!!
–joe