iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

Deserves Got Nothing To Do With It

One of the great things about the internet is that novice traders do not have to go it alone. There are plenty of websites, communities and chat rooms to flesh out ideas and strategies (with iBC and The PPT obviously being at the very top of that hierarchy). In some of the lower tier sites and platforms, of course, along with those marketplaces of ideas comes plenty of insecure, toxic personalities who feel the need to put other traders down, in order to bring themselves up.

In particular, many crusty veteran traders often talk about their decades of experience in “the business.” While extensive experience can indeed be extremely beneficial, many of these washed up types believe that they are entitled to make far more profits than you–the up and comer–could ever dream of making. Through their condescending and patronizing remarks, they just know, in their heart of hearts, that they deserve to make money in the stock market because of their years working in said industry. If the has-been is a trader who looks at charts, for example, you will often hear him refer to himself as being a “true technician,” unlike the other supposed dunces on the internet. The reality for many of them, of course, is that they are tired of working hard (if they ever did) and just want the market to give them a handout for all of their years of service. They are looking for shortcuts, if you will. As you know, Mr. Market does not give a shit about how many years that you have been working in “the biz.” He will Adebisi your ass the moment you think you have got this whole stock market timing thing down cold.

What I am here to tell you is that most of these “industry veterans” are likely less than two years away from being a bunch of losers sitting around a bar, saying “Oh yeah, I used to be a trader. It’s a tough racket,” just before they gulp down some loser microbrewery. Believe me, I have seen the same phenomenon, without fault, in the poker world. Whether it is in Las Vegas, Atlantic City or southern California, there are always grumpy players who claim that the newbies have all the luck, while they have to scrap for every penny and never get to “play their rush.”

While it is most certainly true that there are plenty of experienced traders to admire, you should be extremely selective in whose advice you choose to heed. Making trading decisions because Art Cashin expects a certain unique gravitational pull from the Moon, or because he’s feeling lucky in general due to the fact that his server gave him an extra side of cabbage with his corned beef, is not a good idea. Whether it be trading or poker, many of these old losers will try to use every gimmick in the book to look for an edge, as a substitute for hard (and smart) work. Just as with the traders sitting around the bar, most of those dilapidated poker players inevitably wind up drifting away into the Las Vegas night, living off of government checks or trying to find a job driving a cab, never to be seen with money inside a poker room again.

My point is this, and read this carefully: I do not care whether you are in high school, your 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, or whether you are a retired grandparent who just started trading. If you are consistently putting in hard work and performing unbiased analysis on the markets, and then following through with proper execution on your trades with a respect for risk, you will do well as a trader. What these decrepit scumbags fail to remember is that hubris and pride come before the fall. Do not, by any means, EVER let them get inside your head. If you are working intelligently and are making money as a trader, you have earned every last penny. You did not get lucky. Rather, it is the old loser who has been lucky to still be working in the industry (likely because of some personal guilt trip they laid on a former employer or fellow employee). TUNE OUT THE BULLSHIT.

Make no mistake, however, that you should definitely be using the internet to supplement and extrapolate your trading ideas and strategies. That is where iBC and The PPT enter into the picture. As an example, why do you think Danny is posting his nightly breadth readings as well as his “rip or explodes” list? I assure you it is not because he has deemed it a necessary part of some prescribed “treu champagne lifestyle.” Rather, he is posting that work to help YOU, the up and comer. So use it! The same holds true with every other blog on this site, as well as the invaluable tools and community inside The PPT.

Now, seeing as it is a Saturday, you’ll excuse me before I lose my temper.

Back to weekend festivities…

______________________

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7hh2FwFVgU 450 300]

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CHESS MOVES

I have made three trades thus far today.

  1. I bought 1/4 more of my position in $LULU. I have now 3/4 of a position in the stock.
  2. I initiated a 1/2 long position in $DECK.
  3. I initiated a 1/2 long position in $THOR.

_____________________

TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES (Including ETF instruments):

  • LONG: 33% ($APKT $LULU $CRM $IAG $MDAS $ISH $DECK $THOR)
  • SHORT/HEDGED: 6% ($TLT $TZA)

CASH: 61%

___________________________

NOTE: These are posted to be trading ideas only. Should you follow me in, I urge you to use stop losses to mitigate your downside risk (I prefer a 7-8% trailing stop loss).

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5utRRlqXM 450 300]

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Hibachi Grill Market

MARKET WRAP UP 06/17/10

On the back of yesterday’s consolidation, the market yet again put in a boring, choppy day. With the S&P 500 staging a last minute mini-burst to close up 0.13% to 1116, this market is quickly becoming fodder for an hibachi chef. Traders trying to play intraday trends are being sliced and diced like tender chicken, noodles and onions on the grill.

After the run up that we have seen since we printed 1042 a mere nine days ago, a quiet period of consolidation is a solid check in the bulls’ win column. This type of price action is far more constructive for the bulls in terms of tightening up extended daily charts, and building sound bases. What the bears were hoping to see was a quick reversal on heavy volume, giving back the previous nine days’ gains, presumably taking us to new lows. Instead, the current benign toggle between bulls and bears is helping to offer very good long setups, should we see a few more days of this type of action.

Anecdotally, I am seeing a high level of apathy and disinterest amongst traders, which is often found after the kind of fast, emotional selling that we saw in May and early June. Usually, apathy is the last stage of sentiment during a correction before we turn back up. Of course, prognostications aside, the price action on the updated an annotated daily chart of the S&P 500 tells the story of a healthy flattening out just above the 200 day moving average (see below).

Looking ahead, the bulls can afford to see a bit of a pullback from here, so long as it is not on heavy volume. A light volume dip to 1085-1100 would likely invite some aggressive bulls to load up on longs. The bears, on the other hand, need to start asserting themselves quickly, as the longer that we come to terms above the resistance trend line (see my chart above) as well as the 200 day moving average, the more likely it is that our next move will be much higher from here.

Regarding my portfolio, my top three performers today were: $APKT, $CRM as well as $IAG again. All three of those charts continue to look bullish. As for $LULU, I noted last night that I expected a pullback in that extended name, and indeed we saw that today. I am content to hold my 1/2 position, as the daily chart of that high momentum name presumably takes a healthy breather.

With a cash position of 67% and some small hedges in $TLT and $TZA, I am well positioned to take advantage of any more consolidation and/or healthy pullbacks. Note also that my current allocation limits my downside, should the bears regain the initiative. Seeing as we remain below a downsloping 50 day moving average, a cautious approach is still preferred. While the character of this market appears to be changing in favor of the bulls, the bears have by no means been left for dead yet.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SSOTm0hEDQ 450 300]

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Gonna Get a Little Bit…Sideways?

“Worked all week now it’s time to play/Gonna get a little bit…Sideways”

-Dierks Bentley, “Sideways”


MARKET WRAP UP 06/16/10

For the first time in several weeks, we witnessed a relatively tame trading session, as the S&P 500 closed off 0.06% to finish at 1114. Despite closing flat on a few occasions during the past two months, we have seen wild intraday whipsaws. Compared to the market’s recent price action, today qualifies as an orderly consolidation session. In particular, after the huge move up from 1040 over the past ten days, the lack of a huge selloff today can be viewed as a bullish.

For many weeks now, I have talked about the idea of becoming more aggressive on the long side if and when we saw a few days of quiet consolidation. Not only is it important to digest our recent move higher in an orderly way, but this type of price action helps to firm up many short term extended daily charts. In fact, many of the high growth names that I highlighted last night have been up for five/six days in a row on solid volume, and need to take a pause.

As I note in the updated and annotated daily chart of the S&P 500, seen below, the bulls are by no means out of the woods yet. We are looking at a declining 50 day moving average, as well as a fresh batch of overhead supply from early to mid May. Thus, several more days of building a sound base is crucial to being able to tackle all of that tough resistance, in my view.

Because we could pull back to the 20 day moving average at 1084, and still be in a short term uptrend, I added some small hedges into the closing bell today. With a cash position of 67%, I am still taking a wait and see approach at this point. Being aggressive in all forms of gambling may be a fun time, but selective aggression is what gets the money over the long haul. Even in other professions, such as with fighter pilots and police officers, selective aggression is the hallmark of the most successful people. Letting the market reveal itself in the face of all of the recent events will continue to require a great deal of patience…and cash.

My top performing long today, $IAG (which I bought yesterday), is a pretty good example of a daily chart firming up and forming a sound base before breaking out (see below).  Props to Jake Gint.

On the other hand, another one of my top longs, $LULU, needs to take a breather. I will likely add to my 1/2 position on a light volume pull back.

My two new longs today both offer appealing charts, to the point where took 1/2 positions in each, seen below.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfj93IQAfEE 450 300]

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CHESS MOVES

Into the closing bell, I have decided to pick away at some hedges.

(All buy orders time stamped inside The PPT)

LONG:

  • 1/2 position $TLT
  • 1/3 position $TZA

TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES:

  • LONG: 27% ($APKT $LULU $CRM $IAG $MDAS $ISH)
  • SHORT/HEDGED: 6% ($TLT $TZA)

CASH: 67%

NOTE: These are posted to be trading ideas only. Should you follow me in, I urge you to use stop losses to mitigate your downside risk (I prefer a 7-8% trailing stop loss).


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