I will do a complete SPX analysis today, just for the hell of it. This is just one of the steps I take to prepare for th enext trading day.
Here is the 5-day chart + 1 blank day:
Each trend line is important in the setup of a blank day. The current anticipated range should be between 870-900. I know that that is pretty wide, but that’s how it is. Some days are narrower and others are wider. The small orange boxes indicate intra-day pivot points that coincide with their respective trends. If done correctly, multiple lines should perfectly intersect each other. I give more weight on dual segment crosses thank single ones. Why? Because it is reasonable to anticipate slightly stronger support or resistance at these areas.
Moving on to the 2-month/60-min chart + the rest of the month:
I marked the shorter-term consolidation areas while simultaneously marking the pivots are the wider swings. These are my danger zones, or areas where I have to pay closer attention. Why? Usually large breakout or breakdown spikes usually create enough force for a temporary trend shift.
Now the 3-month/60-min chart:
The three separate boxes enclose the largest swings. The green and tred areas indicate that consolidation will take several weeks. Notice how not much time is spent in the orange box. This is the ‘battlefield’. Major shifts occur in this area and it doesnt take long to determine the winner.
Finally, the 5-month/daily chart:
This puts everything I talked about above into perspective. It allows me to guestimate how the month will look like. This range is between 840-930., the major determining point obviously being 875-880, or the horizontal neckline (and current location of the 200-day MA).
—
I will try to not decline any prospective students, but there are no guarantees. Just note that when I selected my online group last year, I choose 5 people out of 56 possible applicants, all of whom are still trading with me everyday. I am willing to loosen up my personal requirements to coach as many people here as possible.
I am actually very thankful for the haters I had prior to March/April, despite the occasional community idiot showing up here. Hating on me was a blessing in disguse. In fact, I wouldn’t mind even more hate – mindless bullshit from people who believe all of my trades are hindsight (laugh!). It was because of them that I started posting my trades to prove them wrong. It was because of posting my trades that the coaching program was born, due to the high interest in my performance. Because of this coaching program, you will be better off.
And, so will I. With 43 applicants (in two days time) submitting questionnaires, the program became a whole lot more “worth it” to me. I have every bit of personal, professional, and financial motivation in the world to put my students on the track to success.
To the very few remaining haters hiding in the caves of Afghanistan: You can’t stop reading my blog, can you? It’s because I am right, and you are all just a bunch of circle jerkers with nothing to show for in your lives. Oh by the way, thanks for the traffic — much appreciated ๐
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Top notch as always……..
Who you calling “idiots” CA? I think your trades are bullshit, haha
You are a tool Grouch.
You live in a fucking trash can.
fuck this GM dickhead Fritz what-the fucker….new GM…fuck you your products suck goat ass
Futures Pointing to Continued Downside vs. Consolidation in Your Range?
Correction, was improperly looking at the futures, sheesh CNN.
UMC and VMED
CA – thoughts on SRS longer-term? RE seems to have continued weakness recently. Being in the commercial real estate industry, I can say that we are closer to the beginning than the end. SRS chart looks to have blue skies above it.
buying TNA..FAS here
Someone else mentioned it yesterday, but INCY looking pretty good
Hi CA,
A couple of TA questions if you have the time.
The way I was taugh to draw TL’s (perhaps wrongly) placed no emphasis on them running parallel. The lower blue line for example looks weak as it has only 2 touches and the price cuts it. Does the fact it runs parallel to the upper blue line (strong with three touches) provide it additional strength?
Also why does the upper purple run from under the price on the 1st July? Is this simply because of your 5 day timescale. The way I was taught I would have placed it above with the TL coming down at a steeper angle.
Thanks in Advance
SN (Non Hater!)
I have to make sure that you know every single possibility. Parallels have a huge significance.
Thanks
Bought SRS $22.69. Based on IYR chart
a tad late in my opinion…SRS..just rallied quite a bit..but good luck
SRS-IYR have been defying logic for way too long. STOP set on SRS at 21.99 and off to my “real” job. Good luck guys!
whats the 3X long tech ETF please..?
.
TYH
Bull thanks..! Panda..you were close..I had fucking brain freeze…damn it..!
lol
added OCLS @ 3.02
tight stop incase 3 doesn’t hold
3 failed
well, i have my stop at 2.9 to allow for a head-fake
ha!
took out my stop – now watch it shoot up!
AIG might be primed for a YRCW type rally…. i’d like to see it rally to $10 or so, then buy the 2ndary breakout
Possible shorting opportunities: STRS, SNBC, MF
TRIB looking to make another move.
is barney frank related to dennis kneale?
seriously. uncanny resemblance.
yes…they both suck dick…
but they look SO alike and they sound they same – I just noticed it – icky.
euro –
forming rising wedge 1 minute
heading into 1.4 resistance area
bear flag on 1 hour
just under 20 dma
I’ll be out for most of the trading day and I’m very confident that this thread can take care of itself.
INCY breaking out. looks good to $4.10 it would seem
looking at a daily, it would be a cup and handle at $4.10, thoughts? breaking that would be more upside (long way to go, though). not a bad swing candidate
yea I would think around $4.00 is my target
INCY b/o
bonds are ripping, euro ready to die, not good for SPX
I appreciate all of your contributions/insight. You’ve been the most frequent contributor here for many weeks now.
Agreed, I think I’m addicted to futures now. o.O They suit my lack of capital perfectly.
Futures are like Bon Que Que – just have a lot of discipline and great money management rules!!!! I can not overstress that enough. When I started I was losing lots and lots – with many other sources of income. It hurt but I could deal with it.
They are excellent to learn chart patterns though and they are great for someone like me with a kid and little time to search through charts for set-ups.
Paper trade them until you are +++ for many weeks consistently and figure 2 ticks of slippage per trade.
can you recommend any books on Futures Trading, I would like to learn
badass – thank you!
I didn’t know if it was bordering on annoying… being somewhat off topic but relevant I hope.
not annoying. keep it up
SRS rock n roll
Indueed.
awesome post.
i do really apreciate this kind of thing.
guess i am much of a newbie to join your program, but your posts have been of much help.
keep em coming.
I ca think of many times here where I benefited from other ppl’s calls as much they benefited from mine. I keep track of all of these little details and know who’s doing what.
es – short
covered ES +1.75 – perfect set-up out of the sym tri. / under 200dma
got the euro short + 10 pips
missed the shit out of the crude short!
still riding my DTO…
wanted to hold for more but volume didn’t confirm
spx may now form descending tri. for bigger move with vol
spx – descending tri… what time scale? I don’t see it.
1 min chart from 9:54 to 11:15
not completely perfect – only 2 points on the bottom but 200 dma resistance above, broken sym tri, bond strength, USD strength, it all said “take the trade”.
nice
yup – just broke and paid out like a slot machine.
now we move to a falling wedge and/or a channel
euro moved to channel – broke again
watching market indices as they approach the lows of the intraday dubya from Wednesday. Dow is sitting on those lows right now, next is the S&P, then the Nasdaq. I think if break those lows we get a big drop today.
I think the market is going to roll over here today and close down quite a bit. And thus I bought some more BGZ for a shorter term trade.
I concur Oil is trading down working the support , Dollar up, commodities down, the only thing that is holding is NDX tech play and that is rolling over.
LEVEL TO REMEMBER: 873.10 to close and 869 to break for H&S break then IMO we are good for another 25-30 points. I am long TZA and ERY. Looking to also add EDZ (because heavy commodity Emerging are laggards to downturn in pricing of commodities).
stopped out of my MTXX from yesterday
Does anyone see formation of a cup and handle on EEV? Also, SRS seems to be an early warning system to ES the past few days. Something to watch….
AIG b/o
out 2nd euro short + 9 pips
CA, nice pre market call on TSTR – http://chart.ly/7d77fm
thx
Thining ES on the long side if we make it down to the 864-65 area. Could go a little lower but I don’t want to miss the boat.
a drop to 869-ish might be a good spot for a move to 871-872 range if it happens soon.
itty-bitty mini H&S on ZB – 30 yr bond 1 min chart
working !
DRYS 5.08
my INCY looking to b/o
there she goes!
out ZB short – $400 per contract. easy/safe – best trade of the day.
CA,
Thoughts on MTSN on the daily?
The jump is because it has an upgrade to Buy with a target of $2.50.
Will it sustain the climb?
I am not even close to being CA but I would suggest to stay away from MSFT for today at least as I think you can definitely get it cheaper soon especially if there is a sell off today and Monday. I will save the TA for CA, although IMO that chart shows a downtrend of course your millage may wary.
I was mentioning MTSN, not MSFT
LOL my bad …. too much coffee in my blood stream
I think we have a downtrend into the close barring any fuckery by the Bots.
I don’t like it much. It’s bound by the 20 and 50-day MA’s. Once the stock exits from this narrow range, it’s worth taking a look again.
NDX short term uptrend broken @ 1415 down we go
crude, spx, euro ready to roll over again?
yes, yes, and maybe.
Anybody watching AIG yet? gave everybody the heads up $ 9.75 and $10.30 b/o… going to $14-$16
MTXX bitch!
OCLS getting crushed. good for that stop!
I thought at 10:27 am you said you took out your stop.
XIDE 3.39
any thoughts on CIT? anyone getting in for the ride? PissAnt?
ELNK if it BO
MVIS looking primed again. Check out the 30 min chart
looks like a potential H&S formation showing on the daily…it might be making the right shoulder soon, thoughts?
hmm. i’m not seeing that. i see a nice uptrend line from late May, coinciding with the 20 day MA on the daily. Good stop would be just below it. $2.75 or so.
7 cents at risk for 40 cent possible gain (matching recent highs/resistances). Plus, tech is stronger than most sectors right now. worth a shot, imo
feel free to disagree though.
SFD looking good for a swing trade
Just curious if any of you use any tools to find the dominant market maker for better using level II info? I heard about this from Fausto Pugliese, but not sure where to get the info.
Nice intraday bottom on POT and at 200 daily
looking for bounce b POT 85.25
——
5min double bottom on RIMM in @ 66.66
okay out of POT 86.00 and RIMM 66.66
long ICE 84.33
ICE is a volatile stock
target #1 = 85.00
target #2 = 86.00
stop @ 84.19 about to move it up to breakeven
ICE
4 cents from target 1 and knocked down
but a look at the daily makes me think this closes out week strong
stop still 84.19
stopped out ๐
back in ICE 84.40
iced out
3rd times the charm 84.50 move it ICE
cha ching! half out target #1 85.09
stop @ 84.50 for other half
back in 84.60 for fun
tight stop 84.40
I like your look on POT…might buy some august calls.
I would say hold off on POT action here @ 200 is weak – I would be a seller
Quick check in fellas. Out of SRS at 23.39. Nice. Right back into SSO- 23.74. Let it rip .
Might be worth watching SRS for another run 4 any of you guys without the trade limitations that I have,
Bay Area – ditto here, out of SRS at 23.37. I will wait for IYR to bounce to the $31 level before getting back in.
AIG now through $12
PissAnt – by the looks of things, you caught most of this move. Divine! The short squeeze is on.
Are you plannig to cut it loose or swing into next week?
Kman, i’ll be leaving my trade this afternoon. I definitely think the short squeeze continues, but i do NOT wish to hold AIG, GM, any of these “zero” companies overnight EVER. Because the true value is zero, it’s just a matter of time.
I’ll be back long monday AM
As i say that, stopped out @ 11.90. Nice gain, +15.4%
Great trade!
I AM BACK.
Give me some time to get through all of the questions.
Great discussion going on here.
smelly weak bulls can’t keep it up.
The Blank Box is working yet again.
You know what’s great about publicly posting your trades? It ensures full accountability for your actions. And the fact that if you’re right, no one can dispute your calls. If you are wrong, it happens and deal with it, it will make you a better trader.
I salute everyone’s bravery and confidence in doing so. Whether right or wrong, you are establishing a presence on this blog and others can chime in and help out if needed. I was gone nearly the whole day, but I see everyone helping each other out. I’m proud of that.
Long APWR $8.40
CA, is CRTX a short candidate after a break out? Very smooth chart.
I expect some churning at the 50-day. Personally, I’d prob put on a very small test position, then add to it if it forms a bear flag, but that’s just me.
Thanks CA. I am new to this TA. Any books you would recommend?
It’s not updated, but I own every book that’s in my Amazon store list. Tey are categorized on the left side of the page.
http://astore.amazon.com/wtc0c1-20
Which one would you recommend best for a beginner?
Any of Toni Turner’s books.
Cool, thanks my yellow brother.
wow, impressive… you are quite the voracious reader… small wonder you’re so good
HITK – thoughts? quite a 5 month run.
I’d say swing short candidate as long as it closes red today.
Be careful, earnings out Tues AM… i do like the chart
CA is right, we’ve managed to build a prospering little community of traders. I’ve learned a great deal from being here and although I can’t yet contribute as much as I would like, I’m glad to be a (small) part of it.
retox, re: your 10:55, posted here so you will see it: Considering I’m still a student trying to juggle class, work, social excursions, and trading I rarely can consistently schedule a block time to sit and wait for breakouts much less do proper pre/post trading analysis for the whole market CA style. After you started posting ES trades I started looking at futures as a way to refine technical skills while working around my schedule. Not to mention the leverage would allow me to use trading as an income source years before stocks (assuming profitability). Thanks for the calls, keep em coming.
the close can’t stay this boring – really – oil, bonds, euro all very tight range
cnbc…i worked with this turd david menlow…he is an idiot.
let’s hope it’s not a fake-out
just getting time to do some more trading – i pretty much suck at this sideways stuff so I’m keeping it light. In a few ETF’s with a soft / long bias with cash at 70%. Pure gut – such a treacherous market I’m going opposite figuring there’s a screwing afoot. Do most of you serious folks switch to a mostly cash allocation in these conditions?
SQNM investigation timeline almost up, imo…
they are presenting on the 18th of July… would be reasonable that they would have news before then…
or at least a runup into that presentation.
I’m expecting at least 8$ on news of a non-fraud investigation…
http://www.geneticalliance.org/ws_display.asp?filter=conference09.latebreaking.session4
Added TTHI – to report on phase II trials at Alzheimer’s meeting next week …
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10539561/4/biotech-stock-mailbag-chelsea-therapeutics.html
Cutting loose SKS at $4.05 at -.21…terrible trade, but I thought after the beat down yesterday it might bounce.
What a chop fest today. The bulls aren’t too impressive.
All cash into next week. Wonder if dummy (Grouch) will challenge this trade too.
Good weekend guys.
at the close cash formed a really nice breakout pattern ๐
๐
Still hanging on to my bearish BGZ position. I still feel a breakdown coming before a bounce.
Holding INCY and MVIS for the weekend. have a good one guys. Pool party tomorrow for me.
holding mvis for the last run up of the current up trend?
unless it breaks below the uptrend from May, I’ll hold for something in the $3s. my mental stop is $2.70 – $2.75.
don’t you wish MVIS annouces an OEM name and the stock rockets? I have some shares of MVIS at $4
tnks for that retox! Adding to my personal library…
CA – been catching up on your educational articles and in one post you mentioned doji days are important for swing traders. does that mean you initiate your swing trades on doji days? or do you wait till there’s a breakout day after the doji days have formed?
been learning a lot from your writings. thanks!
Hope nobodyis left in AXL… stock got crushed in the final few minutes… looks like they’ll join Lear in bankruptcy most likely. Amazing how analyst are such scummy people…. somebody last month put a Buy and $9 PT on AXL…. way to go homo!
Sad, i used to work with analyst on wall street and left to be a trader.
SDS since SPX 930. Easiest trade on the planet. Sold today at open. SPX going to 800 max pain. Might pop a bit next week, too many earnings on tap to hold over a weekend. When it pops, hop back in for the ride down.
Easy trade number 2. Short AAPL. GS pumped it today and look at the mass exodus that sold into that strength. Look for a pop Monday am, then short the hell out of it.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader
CA — I’ve been studying your blank box method but have yet to determine how you use it to determine an entry or exit, because you never seem to mention this (crucial) part of it. I assume entry/exit is based on the close price touching a support or resistance TL within the blank box, correct? Since you’re using multiple timeframe blank boxes, which one is used for entry/exit? Set me straight, please. I don’t want to guess here. Thanks!
Guess … can’t u tell from the first chart posted that this is really J0sh1ngU or else CA is inadvertently making fun of him in a serious post.
I called for Joshingu’s removal several weeks before he was actually banned. There were several reasons for this:
1) He came to ME for help in January 2009 (charting requests and a reading list and such). After 2 months or so, he became defiant and unwilling to take anyone’s advice. He bet against me for about 3 months straight, and I know for sure that he suffered horrible losses (though he claims he is still up).
2) His charts were absolutely horrid. He had trend lines that didn’t even link to any pivot points. Some lines were just floating in the middle of nowhere.
3) He was consistently wrong. Worst, new readers were actually following him. I HAD to execute damage control. Anyone that followed him, week after week, lost money. And even more worse, the new readers probably had no idea how they lost money.
4) He is a disgrace to technicians everywhere. He is the epitome of what NOT to be/do. I will not have my valuable name on the same site.
5) He is a rare breed, a type of personality that I cannot teach. I will never, ever, coach him in anything. As long as he reminds arrogant, prideful, stubborn, unwilling to admit to mistakes, and be honest, automatically makes him someone I will never associate myself with.
…among other stuff.
CA – Just f*cking with you …. that first chart was just too reminiscent of the ones he was posting with a megatude of lines that as you noted didn’t seem to be relevant to anything.
Is this correct — “guess”? Would CA like to embellish on this at all?
Thanks in advance!
This one is for you CA. Some cool video about Starcraft that matches the artwork you post
http://beta.vreel.net/watch_3124.html
Jesus CA! You are so far up your own ass it is unbelievable!
You describe other people as “living in the caves”, you described Joshingu as ” … arrogant, prideful, stubborn, unwilling to admit to mistakes …” – perhaps these analogies are simply mirrors of yourself?
“Oh for Gods sakes! Please donโt massage CAโs f*cking ego anymore!!
Heโs already become unbearably arrogant and is overdue for a huge fall from his self-appointed throne.”
You can’t keep me out CA!
Maybe you do make some good calls, but you are turning into one sanctimonious prick too!
Keep it up.
Your IP is scheduled to be banned from the entire iBC site at 6PM EST.
My blog is for trading discussion only.