First, I am still on the lookout for Molesta the Magnificent Bullshitter.
The most pronounced breakdowns occurred in the COMP (-3%) and the RUT (-4.7%). Based on the charts, these are breakdowns and it is time to make preparations to short. I do not know for how long. The COMP resolved it’s indecision at the 200-day by confirming a move to the downside. The RUT lost nearly 5%, bringing death to small caps.
A lot of people say that a trend does not change in one day. I disagree. I’ve seen many, many trends change in a single day via breakaway gaps. Whether yesterday’s move was a breakaway or not is open for debate. We’ll know soon enough. I do know that the bulls won’t give up so soon.
I am currently looking for retracements to at least the bottom range of yesterday’s opening gap bar and the first sign of failure to go short and to sell my remaining longs. It would be unwise to simply short whenever you want to just because the market broke down. Don’t get caught short into a rally. As you can see, the market is still 30%+ above it’s March low so it’s not like you’re late to the party.
CA:
Nice charts! Patience is indeed a virtue; let the setups form.
Good stuff…I had a straddle right when QQQQ were hovering around 200EMA…Once that broke down, I sold out of long for a small loss and will keep the short end until June’s expiration.
Just wondering, whats your retracement target?
While I agree, I dont think we will “test the lows”.
that’s right Nap.
Mike, I don’t think we do either, and may possibly form a higher low the next leg down. 1-2% retracement, or as close the market can get to the opening gap-it’s not set in stone for me.
Sold EMKR $1.10
Bought SRS 5% $25.59
Been scouring for some potentials even though we’re in a rough patch…though I’ve gotten rid of most of my longs and am obviously shy about picking up stock (keeping some gold, WH – got a lucky pop – they kicked butt on earnings) I found DMC. In for a bit – maybe a day trade.
CA,
bough SRS?? or shorted it…that was almost HOD
Expirations are Friday…huge support @ SPX 875/882….I don’t see a big drop until next week
It’s only a 5% allocation. I gotta hedge my remaining longs with something
CA,
Is the 20-MA a reliable way to gauge market movement in the next few weeks? Is it unsafe to generalize that the market will be on a bearish streak if SPX breaks below the 20-MA?
15 and 20. Right now, the DJIA is fighting to keep above the 15, while the SPX is right in the middle of the 15 and 20. The COMP and RUT are fighting to get to the 20.
CA,
will you go net short ?
Sold PLLL $1.97
CA,
will you go net short?
Sold BEE $1.12
Chuan – hopefully soon.
Hi CA, How can i follow you on twitter?
@WeeklyTA
Good trading John, you milked the upside, sold enough yesterday and didn’t panic, and sold more today in the rally. Very nice.
Now if you only traded some real stocks….. 🙂
would REALLY help if you posts your trades on twitter.
Bought QID $38.52 5%
Sold DVAX $1.12
Sold XTEX $3.18
Sold ICAD $1.325
CA,
Who don’t you use TZA?
TIA
Bought FAZ $5.75
Bought TZA $29.16
Nice! I just saw this after I posted.
CA heading to da bears den.
Just one foot through the door for now.
20% short/20% shit longs/60% cash
What kind of impact would the option’s expiration day have on financials, if any?
I agree I added my inital position in TZa @ $28.35 now last one to add is SDS and even perhaps some FAZ if it dips below 5.
not much on opex
boring day, I miss the Penny Circus, CA you catch the clown yet?
still think there is room for mkt to rally 4-5% to s&p 940 (200 dma) and i dont wanna be caught short for that move; I agree being short for the next 1-2 months is the play (sell in may and go away); but ideally, im looking for that rally to 940 before i short; bottom line is i think we can rally 4-5% and it still wouldnt change the overall bearish picture (would still be below 200 dma on s&p)
Sold NNBR $1.39
How would you classify ABCW price action ? Is that one of the longs you want to get rid of at first pops (if we get one)
apparently PWAV is still in play.
CA,
VNDA….$1.08 to $12.96 in 5 days.
Do you think there is a short play on this one?
.
Hello Chart Addict,
New to your site. Thanks for all the charts. I saw an interesting Elliot Wave chart on Rifin (I’m stuck in FAZ currently) which pointed to “C” wave to 660 on the upside or 600 to 589. Do you use Elliot Wave? We stopped at 624 today and bounced off 627 many times.
How do you interrupt that?
Thanks again for the charting
Rich