There are a lot of bears testing the waters here. I typically do not indiscriminately add shorts whenever I ‘feel’ like doing it, but I think it may be a good thing to start building a position, perhaps 2-3% sized positions at a time, every few days. Do not commit. This is the safest way to play the bear side. I’ve seen people add, and add, and add shorts all the way up until they could no longer take the pain. That will destroy you as your position size and losses multiply faster and faster. So, be careful.
My main position, FEED, is doing absolutely phenomenal. The initial position placed 2 weeks ago, is now up 42%, and the rest of the parts are up between 8-32%. Whenever you find these wave 1 symmetrical triangles, put it on the top of your priority list. They usually become parabolic momentum patterns and are accompanied by wave 2 and 3 advances with equal consolidations in between. They are one of the most powerful long side set ups you can ever find.
For the bulls, find support at the 100-day MA (828-830 SPX), which also coincides with the lower intermediate-term upper sloping range (825) and the multi-month long-term upper trend channel also hitting around 825-830. Immediate S1 support is located at approx. 834, prior to reaching 830, which is also the location of the April 9th opening gap’s marubozu. Make note that the April 2-8th bullish flag is being penetrated.
Best of luck with those equities. As for me, time to dump some bonds.
On the fib fans from 3/9 it doesn’t look so bad, but like you said, that penetration yesterday and volume spike on XLF triggered a dump of my longs. Today’s action will be important, as well as action moving into opexp.