Not so fast. I’ve outlined it before, and I’ll outline it again. Understand that when people say that the sucky housing market has bottomed, I say nay. Why? Because of the amount of re-defaults that will plague the next round of foreclosures that will occur towards the end of April. Read the US News article posted below to understand the seriousness of High Re-Default Rates:
I could not say it better myself; too many incentives, not enough support. Only time will tell how the Obama Plan plays out. For now, I’m heavily considering SRS if the markets keep retreating from its current 848 high from the rally. In my opinion, the indices don’t have enough of a market direction to get extremely short or extremely long either way. If the market goes up tomorrow, a lot of wedge patterns hold and a couple of descending triangles stay within their pinching price levels. If the market drops further, however, my $SPX support is currently at 800.21. Check the chart:
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$SPX 30 Day, 60 Minute
For all of you who are considering taking the SRS route, I have created three different charts that have different time spans and T.A. within each chart (I apologize for the last two charts, as they were created earlier this evening and were not available to be changed to a white chart background):
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SRS 5 Day, 10 Minute w. RSI-%K Trading System
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SRS 30 Day, 60 Minute w. Volume Analysis
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SRS 6 Month, Daily
For tonight, I’ve also put up charts of potential breakdowns if the market gets ugly tomorrow. These charts are seen below:
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PCX 30 Day, 60 Minute
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STLD 20 Day, 30 Minute
Another chart for all of you to look at is a 20 Day, 30 Minute chart of [[ENER]]. This ticker is setting itself up for either a huge pop or a big descending triangle pinch, only ending up in support ($13.05) failure.
For tomorrow, I will say everything I’ve been saying throughout the week:
- VIX
- Volume
- Price Pattern Breakouts & Breakdowns
Keep your eyes open tomorrow, and good luck!
ZMoose
I can only click open the two SRS charts in the middle. The charts with the white background do not link to larger images. Can you check the links?
Thanks,
Sleepy
thanks for the great posts, zmoose. didn’t get a chance to mention that earlier.
@ Sleepynaptime – Apologies for the SRS charts, I will try to fix this ASAP
@ Aris – Thanks for the kind words Aris!
I agree with a few things, the home builder thing….. but the market is showing a bounce before we go back down. loving gold and silver here and hating the dollar
Let me be FUCKIN CLEAR…one of my several jobs is being a custom home builder…the day of big lot builders is over..FUCKING OVER..they are selling their lots for a song,,,their 3rd tier shit they thought was gold is FUCKING GARBAGE….they are or have almost expended their future development sales to keep only a few working and pay for state licenses and liability insurance….2 or 3 of these FUCKS will go under…I am from Maryland…just outside of DC…highest per capita income areas….they are fucking toast
@jOsh1ngU – I totally agree that the market will go up before plummeting. I strongly feel bank earnings will destroy this market next week, however.
@mustard seeds – My friend, more people like you need to get out there and whoop congress’ ass. Are you currently short/considering getting into SRS?
No, no where near a bottom. Who said we were near a bottom? No.
Yes in SRS now…theses secondary offerings being done are buying nothing but time for CRE…they are dilutive and when a little later the fundies/hedgies or whoever else comes to the reality that they own stocks in vacant spaces, it will end poorly. The property managaers have to go to the secondary market offerings because they cannot get loans or modifications
@ Elditto: CNBC did and has been since January. They obviously don’t know the seriousness of the situation at hand with foreclosure rates.
@ Mustard Seeds: Wish I would have gotten into SRS towards the end of the day… Sadly I did not and am still cash. Waiting to see what tomorrow is like and will possibly take up a couple of long and short positions into next week. Risky though. I love that you feel the same about the secondary offerings as I do. Just wait ’til earnings week for big financial institutions (BAC, C, WFC, JPM, etc.). There will be bloodshed and hell to pay, no doubt.