iBankCoin
Joined Nov 29, 2008
329 Blog Posts

Failed Intraday Inverse H&S/Boxed In

Guess Friday’s GDP forecast for prelim Q408 (previous: -3.8%, consensus: -5.4%, range: -6.1% to -3.8%)

-6.50%
-6.25%
-6.00%
-5.75%
-5.50%
-5.25%
-5.00%
-4.75%
-4.50%
-4.25%
-4.00%
-3.75%
-3.50%
-3.25%
-3.00%
-2.75%
-2.50%
-2.25%
-2.00%
-1.75%+ (I’m way too optimistic)
Current Results

I did not do much today and only rebalanced my existing minuscule long/short positions. The market is once again boxed in after failing to hold the inverse h&s pattern. This time, they do not involve the major moving averages. You can take a look at the 10-day SPX chart to see that the SPX is at overhead resistance around 780, support at 755, and a lot of whipsaw in between. I will personally be waiting for an exit from this box to load up on positions.

On the daily chart, if the market flags down here, then the chances of going many more points lower is well above 90%. It’s almost a near certainty. This is why the market needs to spike higher to avoid flagging down at the lows for a meltdown set-up. We formed a doji yesterday which is more of a 50/50 day (not good odds). There’s no rush. Really.

Still reading “When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era” by Michael Panzner (Wiley, 2009).

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9 comments

  1. TMI

    How’s that book so far? If we spike higher than 780 and bounce off of it good spot to add more longs?

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  2. StarscreamPowerPlay
    StarscreamPowerPlay

    CA, what’s a doji?

    And no offense but, go check my Feb. 9 PG post where you called me insane. It’s an insane world homey!

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  3. StarscreamPowerPlay
    StarscreamPowerPlay

    TMI, Looks like pretty strong resistance around 800 (Based on Feb. 19 move and w/MA’s heading there). I’d stay in cash for that 20pts., myself.

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  4. ManuelStop

    CA: Need that option/checkbox for: “What ever the number, it is falsified and will be revised for the next report”

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  5. yesman

    Starscream PP or whatever the fuck you call yourself:
    If you don’t know what a doji is why are you trading?
    I mean seriously, this is the type of uneducated traders that IBC now attracts, man have things gone down hill.
    Your IP should be blocked.

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  6. The Chart Addict

    SSPP – we’re all insane to some degree.

    A doji is an indecision day where neither bulls or bears gain full control of the day from open till close. The day is also marked by a very tight range. Basically, the open and close are very close to each other.

    Manuel – I knew I forgot something!

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  7. The Chart Addict

    According to the poll, people are hoping for/expecting a depression.

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  8. Maelstrom

    No one, of average age on ibc, has a clue of what a depression of this magnitude would be..many assistance programs would colapse, which normally I would approve because of blatant abuse, and leave working people fucked. People who had never before needed assistance but payed for it via taxes, taxes fees, etc..Scarey shit

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