The Bears Are Dead! Now A Proper Pullback Can Begin!

I don’t have much to say.  I am alone.  All my brethren have been killed.  Everyone I know who was a bear has flipped on me.  I am not talking a couple people and their PA.  I am talking friends here and in London who command billions of equity and hedge fund assets.  Now they were not short per say but they were cautious.  No More! TINA rules the day.  To a man and woman they have given up fighting the central banks.  Mind you they have not been fighting them the whole time but over the course of the last 6-12 months.  The high priest central bankers have converted everyone.  Apparently revenue and EPS misses are ok now because it means more stimulus which of course means higher equity prices.  No one cares about the deteriorating fundamentals like the fact that semi-conductor companies are missing big on the top line.  They are usually early warning indicators of economic weakness across the board.  It just doesn’t matter.  The central banks are no longer subject to the cyclical laws of nature.

However, what if the death of the bears was a problem for the central bankers? The marginal buyer of equities has been companies purchasing their own stock, Europeans chasing dollar asset momentum and stubborn bears covering their shorts.  Last week I wrote about multi-asset class turning points.  It appears to me that the U.S Dollar has peaked and is heading lower, bonds yields look like they want to rise and gold is showing signs of life.  We also have potential for a bullish reversal for the Yen and the Euro.  So essentially the last of the bears went long and there are no shorts below us to cover when selling begins, the europeans are up to their eyeballs in the US Equity Strong Dollar Trade and look to become net sellers as the dollar weakens.  In addition, bond yields look set to rise which could slow down the debt fueled corporate stock buyback binge.  Buying power may be drying up for the time being.  The market today felt exhausted.  Friday’s minor new high had only 18 new 52 week highs on the S&P.  A very poor reading of strength.  In addition, all sorts of exotic technical voodoo triggered last week which suggests at least a reversal.  We are close gentleman.  Bull markets end when there are no more bears.  Well the bears are dead and now the bulls are next.