“Money, capital, has a life of its own. It’s a force of the nature like gravity, like the oceans, it flows where it wants to flow.”
Maxwell Emery-Chairman, First New York Bank from the Movie Rollover 1981
I have consulted the charts and burned some entrails…I come to only one conclusion…capital is about to flow in different directions from the prevailing trends as the fiat currency quickening accelerates. New trends are already emerging and some appear to be on the Horizon. The most important piece of this puzzle is the Dollar. It appears to have topped or will shortly in the near term and is entering a correction mode that will prevail for weeks perhaps months. I think the Euro and JPY will rally in response to the dollar weakness. Oil and other commodities have already sniffed this out. Oil looks poised for a sustained move up. How high and how long remains to be seen. Gold looks poised for a big move. I have chatted with OA and he agrees. A big move is coming. I am biased up given my near term view on the Dollar. Bonds look ready to fail here potentially and I think yields begin to rise. And finally US Stocks look ripe for a significant correction from all my measurements that I follow.
Sentiment on most of these currencies and assets classes are at extremes in the direction of the prevailing trend. Cycle work suggests major turing points. The boats are too loaded to one side and we are about to flip. Some of you might ask “What is the catalyst?” There does not need to be one but lets use Greece as the current excuse. I am looking to perhaps go long gold and/or the miners if it breaks above $1220 and potentially short QQQ or SPY on a break. I think we should see the speed of the markets pick up and volatility increase. I am looking for this to begin over the next 2-4 weeks. Of course I could be absolutely wrong so I will wait for some confirmation. Don’t worry the world is not ending…just changing
Long-term I expect the dollar to go much much higher as the emerging markets de-lever their $9 trillion in $ debt. However, trends don’t go up or down in straight lines.
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nice call thus far!
Have you positioned accordingly?
I couldn’t remember the name of that movie! Thanks Blue need to watch it. An old money manger put me on to it and said I needed to watch it. thanks
Blue,
Isn’t a weakening currency generally bullish for that country’s stock market (when priced in their own currency) and vice versa? Seems to me that short term, US equites will be going up and European/Japanese equities will be down.
Blue,
Presidential cycle is one “macro economic” factor that troubles me on the bearish side. Care to comment? Thanks in advance.
juice,
yes
gnat,
not always. also a stronger Yen is worse for the US equities due to the carry trade.
fiffty2weekhi,
I don’t follow such lore. I watch asset prices, technicals and internals.
Not bullish on eem?
The game theorist,
No opinion, but given my $ outlook is should do better than SPX yes.
great thanks for your feedback. looking for a place to reallocate some funds away from the us for the next 18 months
If gold breaks above $1220 and the miners move, how long would you expect that run to last? then a reversal?
I am not nimble at all, sometimes not being able to track the market for a day or days at a time. I’ve been long PMs long term. Thinking maybe taking some off the table on a pop, if what you say plays out. Then back in later/lower. Any thoughts, appreciated.
OT song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWPcid4l74U
when they can’t hold gold under 1200 on a Fri; that may say something
Blue you got a fat index short on?
Rouge,
I think it will be a strong counter trend rally that ultimately fails. And then we backfill.
Superpositron,
Yes. Shhhhhh! Be bery quiet! We are hunting Wabbits.
http://i.imgur.com/sqrYnFS.png
http://i.imgur.com/hr0BWBR.png
Credit lookin’ scary.
There really is only one way to spell it..
LOSER.
Fortunes Will Be Made
Rick Rule: http://kingworldnews.com/rick-rule-the-gold-and-silver-markets-are-setting-up-for-a-historic-worldwide-mania/
42 mins
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/druckenmiller-bets-on-market-surprise-with-china-boom-oil-rise
cryptic
uncalled for you loser!
cryptic – and you haven’t been wrong about the market? BlueStar routinely provides analysis and gives out perspective that I definitely don’t have – if you want to debate him on his stance, then do that
Blue – the Chinese intervention last weekend seems to have injected some crack into the system, but the Chinese data is still rough – is your thesis still intact, but delayed? I am beginning to think this sell in May thing may not be a bad strategy (unless QE4 is announced….)
cryptic,
I blog for free so go kill yourself. I have other shit to do. look at bonds weaker, dollar struggling to go higher, euro looking like a bottom. second its been a week and we are hardly off to the races. hysterical the ADD generation. Go read OAs post you dip shit.
k_malancon,
thanks
k_melancon,
nothing has changed. Look at OAs post. We talked. My stuff screams lower. His screams change.
flynavy,
thanks
Blue – thanks and have a great weekend – Hawaii must be nice….freaking highs in the 50s right now…can’t even smoke a cigar on my back deck without a jacket on…..
Just back from Mexico.Things seem to
hopping down there.Maids make
about $6 a day but I don’t see how that
holds given the action down there.Time
shares and condos all being
successfully marketed and sold.Things
are a changing.
Love your blogging. Blog more.