SPYderCrusher Trade Ideas Review:

By –

If you go to my Chart.ly page you can see whatever my latest CBO video was. I will review the picks from the last CBO video I made.

Firstly, looking at yesterday’s trades, the new year started out strong with one-day returns:

It always is nice to kick off the year in the right direction.

—————-

Now let’s look at my last Compression Breakout Video.

In it, my top picks were $SGMO $STV $TEN $NNBR $HEK $CHTP.

Let’s see how they performed, and if my indicator lived up to task.  Remember, unlike many who advertise about propriety and edge, my indicators explicitly identify top momentum stocks BEFORE they make the move, so if they fail in identifying the best opportunities each day, then they aren’t working.

Here is an annotated chart of old favourite FTK as a legend for the following charts:

——————————-

SGMO – Returned 15% in 4 days, with a max of 17.5%.  Still could easily justify holding a partial in the name, no stops near hit and another (valid) CBO today.  But, ya know, biotechs.

STV - Stock popped 5% the next day, but then the company announced a secondary afterhours sending shares lower and stopping out at a larger than expected loss.  This really sucks but it’s not controllable.  It’s an exogenous event, but to gloss over it like it didn’t happen would be disingenuous.


TEN – The only dud as far as immediate reaction goes.  This trade is not stopped out, but it also hasn’t advanced much.  Today’s move was nice, and the largest drawdown was 2.4% which is small.  Each CBO got you into a smoothly uptrending stock at a good price, though this one didn’t have the immediate gratification of a 15% move.

HEK – Up 14% in a straight line. The BuyPoints were largely great too.

NNBR – Up 21% in a straight line.

CHTP - Up 40% on drug news.  Biotechs are scary but then can produce incredible returns.  Biotechs may be a good time to use options, but then that presents other challenges.

Compression breakouts continue to succeed in their purported goals of finding momentum getting in before the move is going.  Of course not all trades are winners or 20% ones at that, but in almost all cases, when there is an up move, there is a compression breakout.  I find them, and ride them to the sky.

Does your system do that for you?  It is possible to be self reliant and consistently in big winners.

—————————

The realcode for measuring the percent change since a condition is as follows:

‘# BasisDate = UserInput.Date = “1/01/2010″
‘# declare condition

Static BasisPrice As Single
If isFirstBar Then
BasisPrice = Single.NaN
End If
If condition.value = True AndAlso _
Price.DateValue >= EndOfDay(BasisDate) Then
‘change >= to just = to do specific date anlaysis
label = plot
BasisPrice = Price.Last
End If
Plot = 100 * (Price.Last / BasisPrice – 1)
label = Math.Round(plot, 2)

Top Actionable Ideas for 1-3-2011

By –

This is a video of my top Long Ideas going into today’s trading.

Enjoy, and please question / comment if you see something interesting.

Remember the purpose of these scans is to get into momentum at the start of the move, using price signals that are proven to have an edge (most prices are noise).

CLICK TO WATCH VIDEO


Back To Regular Posting…

By –

After the Chargers finish laying the smackdown on Denver, regular posting will resume.  Hope you guys had an truly excellent holiday season and New Years.

If you’ve ever written anything of consequence in a non-procrastinatory state, you know the advantage of writing the paper, setting it down, and re-reading it the next day.  With a fresh mind brings a new perspective, and its usually apparent upon the fresh read where the initial draft strayed in focus or scope, or where typos and misspellings are rife.

This is the same with the market, in that there is a definite advantage from periodically taking a step out, then a step back in, where you scrutinize your approach and think about how you will improve it over the next year.

In the past two weeks when I wasn’t positing, I did the following:

  • Reviewed every trade I made the whole year (Kind of a lot…)
  • Categorized them as 1 – 5 based on the “grade.”  Made a spreadsheet of this…w/ fancy chart and distribution statistics.
  • Looked at before and after charts to see if there were any uniformity to +/- trades.  There was.  Tried to simulate it in that I cued the chart up to where I bought to see what I saw at the time and if it still fit the ideal entry setup.
  • Examined exits.  What percent of my exits were near the top of the swing versus way too early, or and exact top-tick?
  • Found trades where I broke one of my rules and put them in a separate bin.  Many would have resulted in gains, I learned.
  • Looked at the big picture.  Was I out of the market before declines?  I was I long or leveraged long at the beginning of upswings? Yes to all.
  • Read 6 books on trading, strategy, risk management and gambling which gave me many ideas on how to augment my approach on these critical subjects.

All in all, it was a great year, thank you for your readership in 2010, and I look forward to trading with everyone in 2011.

ATR Stretch Candidates 12-15-10

By –

Here are the results from the Scan:

CLICK TO WATCH LONG IDEAS VIDEO:

HMIN
GERN
TLB
ABMD
PTRY
MCOX
LGF
PTIE

CLICK TO WATCH SHORT IDEAS VIDEO:



MNKD
VMC
GXDX
PZG
RRR
OYOG
SMBL
DVAX
__________
BONUS!!!

After much thought and ridiculous maths, my opinion is that ATR is inferior to Historical Volatility.

Please watch this video where I explain why

CLICK TO WATCH VIDEO


CLICK TO WATCH PART 2 of VIDEO


VIDEO — 3 Part Volatility Tutorial and Adding Historical Volatility Video

By –

A tutorial on how to add Historical Volatility to SF 5.1.

VIEW TUTORIAL HERE


___________________________________________

For iBankCoiners, a 3 part series on the nature of volatility:

VIEW PART 1 HERE! — I discuss good volatility vs. bad volatility with BPOP and OYOG as an example

___________________________________________

VIEW PART 2 HERE! — I discuss 2 * ATR above a MA scan

___________________________________________

VIEW PART 3 HERE! —  I add improvements to the scan to make it more effective at picking tops and bottoms

___________________________________________

TELECHART PCF’s: COPY PASTE THESE

MoMoReversion:

Abs(C – XAVGc21) > ((AVGH14 – AVGL14) / 2 + (ABS(H – C1) + ABS(C1 – L) + ABS(H1 – C2) + ABS(C2 – L1) + ABS(H2 – C3) + ABS(C3 – L2) + ABS(H3 – C4) + ABS(C4 – L3) + ABS(H4 – C5) + ABS(C5 – L4) + ABS(H5 – C6) + ABS(C6 – L5) + ABS(H6 – C7) + ABS(C7 – L6) + ABS(H7 – C8) + ABS(C8 – L7) + ABS(H8 – C9) + ABS(C9 – L8) + ABS(H9 – C10) + ABS(C10 – L9) + ABS(H10 – C11) + ABS(C11 – L10) + ABS(H11 – C12) + ABS(C12 – L11) + ABS(H12 – C13) + ABS(C13 – L12) + ABS(H13 – C14) + ABS(C14 – L13)) / 28)*2

Bullish Reversal Signal:
I italicized some criteria that are different, but say similar things

(C – XAVGH16) <= (-.05) and C > O and C > c1 and Abs(C – XAVGc21) > ((AVGH14 – AVGL14) / 2 + (ABS(H – C1) + ABS(C1 – L) + ABS(H1 – C2) + ABS(C2 – L1) + ABS(H2 – C3) + ABS(C3 – L2) + ABS(H3 – C4) + ABS(C4 – L3) + ABS(H4 – C5) + ABS(C5 – L4) + ABS(H5 – C6) + ABS(C6 – L5) + ABS(H6 – C7) + ABS(C7 – L6) + ABS(H7 – C8) + ABS(C8 – L7) + ABS(H8 – C9) + ABS(C9 – L8) + ABS(H9 – C10) + ABS(C10 – L9) + ABS(H10 – C11) + ABS(C11 – L10) + ABS(H11 – C12) + ABS(C12 – L11) + ABS(H12 – C13) + ABS(C13 – L12) + ABS(H13 – C14) + ABS(C14 – L13)) / 28)*2
Bearish Reversal Signal:
((c1-o4)/o4) >= .07 and C < O and C < c1 and c1 > c2 and Abs(C – XAVGc21) > ((AVGH14 – AVGL14) / 2 + (ABS(H – C1) + ABS(C1 – L) + ABS(H1 – C2) + ABS(C2 – L1) + ABS(H2 – C3) + ABS(C3 – L2) + ABS(H3 – C4) + ABS(C4 – L3) + ABS(H4 – C5) + ABS(C5 – L4) + ABS(H5 – C6) + ABS(C6 – L5) + ABS(H6 – C7) + ABS(C7 – L6) + ABS(H7 – C8) + ABS(C8 – L7) + ABS(H8 – C9) + ABS(C9 – L8) + ABS(H9 – C10) + ABS(C10 – L9) + ABS(H10 – C11) + ABS(C11 – L10) + ABS(H11 – C12) + ABS(C12 – L11) + ABS(H12 – C13) + ABS(C13 – L12) + ABS(H13 – C14) + ABS(C14 – L13)) / 28)*2

___________________________________________


feedback