4 Let’s take a look at the later denied rumors that have held the market up this week and then been disproved almost immediately. Some of them arei eerily similar to last week’s G8/Eurosummit rumors which also proved to be nothing: basically we’ve had a solid three weeks with not a single piece of good news, and bulls have assured us that everything has already been priced in or doesn’t matter:
1) Merkel Will Agree to Eurobonds this Week
No, absolutely not, would require a minimum of 5 years to do and all the major parties in Germany are united in opposition to it at the moment.
2) Huge China Stimulus on the Horizon
The Chinese are going to do some domestic stimulus and maybe even some bargain hunting in Europe, but they’re still assessing the results of the last one and they’re not that pleased with the results. It could be a couple of hundred billion over a couple of years, but nothing to really move world markets or assure anyone.
3) The IMF will bail out Spain!
Rumor spread and rumor denied in a record three hours, no one’s even sure how it would work if they wanted it to.
4) US GDP numbers are great!
This rumor caused a run up on Wednesday, turned out to be totally off.
5) The ECB is getting ready to step in, somehow!
No they’re not–they may cut some rates and float some cash, but they’re in damage control mode, not stimulus mode, and even if they wanted to they wouldn’t be able to quickly enough to really turn this market around.
This brings us to the current rumor that’s trying to hold things together premarket
6) The US payrollt numbers are great!
Even if the US beats massively on the numbers that’ve been revised down like three times in a row, is 165k vs 150,000 estimated really going to counteract the concrete fact of bad manufacturing numbers out of China and Germany and near-crash conditions in Japan plus a bad Indian GDP when arguably these countries plus maybe england are the only relevant industrial economies left? If the robots say yes today I will be 50% in SPY 100 January 2014 puts with a clear conscience and spend the rest on coke and hookers in anticipation of a huge windfall in the next six months.
But actually, I think those numbers are going to be shitty and we’ll see some major tests of support lines today.
4 Responses to “Weekly Rumor Roundup”
smerdyakov
I’m going to be biggest cock today and comment on my own fucking blog post! I’m fucking 2% liquid 70% in SPY puts, today is the day I fucking haul away retirement funds, fuck your pivots, this is my goddamn birthday and I bought weekly 130 puts yesterday when it was at 132.20, fucking shit, I’m rich bitch! Fuck you all!
zenhunter
Great call! But don’t let it get into your head… market gives market takes as well…
smerdyakov
For sure, my rule is that whenever my whole body starts feeling good and I’m really happy about gains, I immediately sell half and set stops on the rest, I’ve gotten burned off warm-fuzzies so many times I’m selling at every major gap down, with a target of being 75% liquid by EOD. Already sold about half of my SPY puts, will sell on the way down.
I still managed my portfolio incredibly irresponsibly and managed to burn up about 25k because I was so sure last Friday was armageddon I got into weeklies then refused to escape even when I had multiple chances. More discipline and less confidence are still needed!
zenhunter
Good rule and trading plan! And thanks for sharing your thought on your past trades. Yes, discipline is not easy but I believe confidence is required to be discipline. It is only thru confidence that you have the courage to be disciplined. It is when greed infiltrated confidence that spell trouble.
Thanks fro sharing!