iBankCoin
Read Scott here on iBankCoin and also at http://www.createcapital.com/
Joined Jan 19, 2010
717 Blog Posts

Interesting events…

It’s been a three-ring circus for stocks since they broke out decisively above SPX 1150. I can tell you that there were A LOT of shorts built up during the grind-up in February and early March.

Guess what? They covered. It was the greatest stop-loss since July of last year.

Next comes the end of the quarter and there is unusual pressures in many markets. Commodities–other than the trading widgets of oil and copper–have been getting slammed. If the economy is recovering, why is this happening. The logic is more than perverse and it only says one thing; deflation and a double dip later this year. But we’ll worry about that later, right?

But stocks, and until today, bonds, have been telling market participants that the sky’s the limit. Short covering, end-of-quarter asset allocation and ribald speculation have been giving us fun. But when they look this good, it is usually too late. Chasing will get you bagged because even just a market pause will send the speculative stocks down 10-20% immediately.

If you’re a trader type, then listen to your gut. It says we are ok into next month but the finger is on the trigger. If you’re an investor who doesn’t stare at your screen all day, then it is time to lighten up as we enter earnings season. Sure, comps are easy versus last year. But have not expectations come too far in relation to stock prices? The technicals say not yet. But this is an event that you should be ready for.

Now that the odd-lotter is “getting in”, the market is going to bag them. Mortgage-backed securities buying is supposed to end next week. Without the odd-lotter, and now that the near-term shorts have covered,  where is the fuel for the next advance?

In the meantime, get used to the word “resilient’…

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